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000
FXUS66 KMFR 311136
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
436 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
ITS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW BRINGING A STEADY RAIN
TO MOST OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT IS NOW ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE
5 CORRIDOR AND EXPECTED TO EXIT ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
THAT WILL BE MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE THIS MORNING. THUS, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD THIS MORNING
WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HIGHEST ON
THE EAST SIDE. WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM
WASHINGTON WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 130W THAT WILL BRING
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THIS EVENING.

IN SUMMARY, THE HALLOWEEN FORECAST HAS RAIN FOCUSED ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH AROUND 11 AM, IN KLAMATH AND EASTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTIES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS/RAIN DROPS TO DODGE ON THE WEST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THEN GETTING TOWARD 7 OR 8 PM THE FREQUENCY AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH SHOWERY/WET WEATHER AND
DROPPING SNOW LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
BE NEAR 7000 FEET THIS MORNING THEN FALL TO 5500 FEET THIS
EVENING AND 5000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE LOWER SNOW
LEVELS WILL OCCUR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.


THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
ACROSS LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN MOIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH STUBBORN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT OVERRUNNING/DRIZZLY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL ZONES INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEND MODERATE RAIN TO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
FRONT LIKELY TO ALSO BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS WEST AND
NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH THE FRONT WILL SAG. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL BE HIGHER AS ONE TRAVELS TO THE WEST AND
NORTH. BUT, SOUTHERN OREGON RAINFALL MAY BE VERY LIGHT PER THE
ECMWF MODEL, OR IT MAY BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PER THE GFS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE AT
MID-WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST OREGON SHOWERS DUE
TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT STRONGER RIDGING THAT SHOULD
MAKE WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THEREAFTER, THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. BUT, MODEL
SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM`S
CHARACTERISTICS, INCLUDING ITS STRENGTH, TIMING, AND SNOW LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS TO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE EAST SIDE BY
MORNING. WHILE MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL PREVAIL, CONDITIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP INTO IFR DURING HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS
ON THE WEST SIDE AS THE FRONT JUMPS THE CASCADES FRIDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 320 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON
SATURDAY...MOVING OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO
THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING THAT PEAKS MONDAY NIGHT. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/SVEN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 310352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...AM PLANNING TO DO ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. THE
LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON MOVE OUT OF JACKSON COUNTY AND
THEN BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE
CELLS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING BECAUSE WHILE THEY ARE NOT TALL, THEY
HAVE INTENSE CORES AND SUSTAINED ROTATION COUPLETS ALOFT. THERE IS
PROBABLY SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE CELLS AND BRIEF INTENSE
RAINFALL, BUT ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY PASS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL, BUT AT THE
MOMENT, IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN CELLS. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST IS OK, BUT WILL WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND THEN LIKELY UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.

SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 310352
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
852 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...AM PLANNING TO DO ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING. THE
LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON MOVE OUT OF JACKSON COUNTY AND
THEN BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES OF EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE
CELLS HAVE BEEN INTERESTING BECAUSE WHILE THEY ARE NOT TALL, THEY
HAVE INTENSE CORES AND SUSTAINED ROTATION COUPLETS ALOFT. THERE IS
PROBABLY SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE CELLS AND BRIEF INTENSE
RAINFALL, BUT ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY PASS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL, BUT AT THE
MOMENT, IT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN CELLS. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST IS OK, BUT WILL WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR, AND THEN LIKELY UPDATE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.

SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 310231
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
731 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD AND LIES IN A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH THROUGH WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY INTO EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY. 31/00Z SOUNDING FROM MEDFORD SHOWED LITTLE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, BUT THERE IS INSTABILITY ALOFT (ABOVE ROUGHLY
700 MILLIBARS). LATEST RAP AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW AN INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THIS AREA, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY HEFTY
WITH 50-60DBZ CORES. THE CORES ARE TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 15,000
FT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL, SO I CAN`T RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IN THESE CELLS. HOWEVER, CELL TOPS ARE ONLY REACHING TO
AROUND 20,000 FT, SO AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING MORE THAN
THAT.

SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHERN JACKSON
AND EASTERN DOUGLAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET AXIS. THERE
IS REALLY NO REASON TO THINK THIS WON`T CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE CASCADES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THINGS
STABILIZING THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE EVENING. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE AT THAT
POINT. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATER
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL AT
LEAST 6Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS INCLUDES KMFR. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014... A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWEST OF THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 302202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
EXTENSIVE WET SEASON LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING ARE GETTING
SOME ASSISTANCE IN BREAKING UP BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVE THROUGH.  COAST
RANGE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/MTS






000
FXUS66 KMFR 302202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SPREADING OVER THE COAST. RAIN HAS
ALREADY STARTED FALLING AT THE COAST WITH QUAIL PRAIRIE IN CURRY
COUNTY RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE PAST HOUR. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE WILL STILL
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT NOTHING LIKE WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED, THE STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST SIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAKING IT TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEST
SIDE DURING THE PRIME TRICK-OR-TREATING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY DURING THE EVENING, BUT A SHOWER HERE OR THERE
CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM SOME INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES CONSIDERING FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY,
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ALSO WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FROST
IS A CONCERN FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS, SO STAY TUNED FOR
MORE INFORMATION AS IT APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6TH, 2014.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW AT JET STREAM LEVEL WILL BECOME
PREDOMINATELY WEST. THIS WILL INDUCE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION AND SOME WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD BOTH CLIMATOLOGY UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND REFORECAST ANALOG PROBABILITIES FROM ESRL`S NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST PAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LESSER
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH
MILDER THAN NORMAL NIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER, OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH ON WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 8TH-9TH, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MOVING SOUTH OF US INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS, GFS, ECMWF, AND CFSV2 ALL INDICATE
THE PATTERN REMAINING PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE STORM TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
EXTENSIVE WET SEASON LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING ARE GETTING
SOME ASSISTANCE IN BREAKING UP BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVE THROUGH.  COAST
RANGE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2014...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/MTS






000
FXUS66 KMFR 301853
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1155 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES THIS MORNING INCLUDED BUMPING UP SKY COVER IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR FOG AND ADJUSTING POPS FOR THE EXPECTED
SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE FRONT TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
VALLEY FOG IN MOST SIDE LOCATIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN IS
CURRENTLY INSIDE OF 130W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
IN MORE OF A NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION AND THIS WILL SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN AT THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING INLAND LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY ON THE EAST SIDE AND SHASTA VALLEY, BUT NOTHING
LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TODAY`S FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND FOR
TOMORROW`S TRICK-OR-TREATING ACTIVITIES, AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...
EXTENSIVE WET SEASON LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING ARE GETTING
SOME ASSISTANCE IN BREAKING UP BY INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ALOFT.
EXPECT REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THEN OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN VALLEY MVFR AND LOCAL IFR AS IT MOVE THROUGH.  COAST
RANGE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INLAND WITH THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 AM PDT THU  OCT 2014...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND SEAS WILL
BE ENHANCED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...PRIMARILY FROM
THE CAPE BLANCO AREA NORTHWARD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
SOME THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY
15, WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT A BIT STRONGER
THAN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL COASTAL JET IS FORMING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CAPE BLANCO
VICINITY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH
EACH RUN,. THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUING WET
PATTERN FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING,
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. BUT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL BE THE NEXT COLD FRONT , DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, AND LOTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG IT, THERE IS
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT BE BREEZY IN
MANY PLACES, INCLUDING THE COAST, THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST
SIDE, JUST THAT STRONG WINDS LIKE THE ONES WE HAVE SEEN WITH SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL CARRY WITH IT A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
RANGE AS WELL AS THE CASCADES, WHILE A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH IS
LIKELY FOR PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FALL AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH, HOWEVER, WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO DROP PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DROPPING TO BELOW 5000 FEET
WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE PEAKS AND THE HIGHER PASSES, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ROADS
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BECOME SLICK IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, IN FACT, SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN OUR AREA SINCE LAST SPRING ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT FOR
CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, FROST OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE, INCLUDING THE SHASTA,
SCOTT, ROGUE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, BUT NOT BECAUSE THE MODELS
ARE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE BULK OF OUR AREA, WE WILL LIE
JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH.
SOME WEAKER SYSTEMS MAY ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW, AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THE TAIL OF THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH. THE LARGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A
DECENT RAINMAKER FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST. THE NEXT MORE
POTENT WEATHER MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
PRODUCER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL WARM FROM THE COLD WEEKEND,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RIDGING OVERHEAD,
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY RISING VERY MUCH
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 60S, AND THE EAST SIDE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE 50S. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/FJB









000
FXUS66 KMFR 301619
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES THIS MORNING INCLUDED BUMPING UP SKY COVER IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR FOG AND ADJUSTING POPS FOR THE EXPECTED
SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE FRONT TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
VALLEY FOG IN MOST SIDE LOCATIONS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE IN IS
CURRENTLY INSIDE OF 130W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
IN MORE OF A NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION AND THIS WILL SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN AT THE COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING INLAND LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY ON THE EAST SIDE AND SHASTA VALLEY, BUT NOTHING
LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. TODAY`S FOCUS FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND FOR
TOMORROW`S TRICK-OR-TREATING ACTIVITIES, AS WELL AS SNOW LEVELS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION..FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS HAVE
FORMED ACROSS SW OREGON VALLEYS WITH LCL IFR VIS IN THE KLAMATH
BASIN. IFR CIGS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT REMAINING WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INLAND AND
THIS WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR BY NOON ACROSS SW OREGON. ELSEWHERE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
WITH LCL MVFR CIGS. VIS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN AREAS OF RAIN. /FB.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THU  OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF IT TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS VERY
SMALL AND FALL MAINLY BETWEEN 9-20NM OFFSHORE AND ONLY DOWN TO OFF
CAPE BLANCO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH
EACH RUN,. THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUING WET
PATTERN FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING,
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. BUT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL BE THE NEXT COLD FRONT , DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, AND LOTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG IT, THERE IS
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT BE BREEZY IN MANY
PLACES, INCLUDING THE COAST, THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST SIDE,
JUST THAT STRONG WINDS LIKE THE ONES WE HAVE SEEN WITH SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL CARRY WITH IT A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
RANGE AS WELL AS THE CASCADES, WHILE A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH IS
LIKELY FOR PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FALL AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH, HOWEVER, WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO DROP PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DROPPING TO BELOW 5000 FEET
WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE PEAKS AND THE HIGHER PASSES, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ROADS
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BECOME SLICK IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, IN FACT, SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN OUR AREA SINCE LAST SPRING ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT FOR
CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, FROST OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE, INCLUDING THE SHASTA,
SCOTT, ROGUE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, BUT NOT BECAUSE THE MODELS
ARE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE BULK OF OUR AREA, WE WILL LIE
JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH.
SOME WEAKER SYSTEMS MAY ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW, AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THE TAIL OF THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH. THE LARGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A
DECENT RAINMAKER FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST. THE NEXT MORE
POTENT WEATHER MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
PRODUCER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL WARM FROM THE COLD WEEKEND,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RIDGING OVERHEAD,
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY RISING VERY MUCH
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 60S, AND THE EAST SIDE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE 50S. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MND/BTL/FJB






000
FXUS66 KMFR 301021
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
321 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH
EACH RUN,. THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUING WET
PATTERN FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING,
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN. BUT LURKING OFFSHORE WILL BE THE NEXT COLD FRONT , DUE TO
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT, AND LOTS OF MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG IT, THERE IS
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO
THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS NOT TO SAY IT WILL NOT BE BREEZY IN MANY
PLACES, INCLUDING THE COAST, THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST SIDE,
JUST THAT STRONG WINDS LIKE THE ONES WE HAVE SEEN WITH SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOST CERTAINLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL CARRY WITH IT A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND THE COASTAL
RANGE AS WELL AS THE CASCADES, WHILE A QUARTER INCH TO ONE INCH IS
LIKELY FOR PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FALL AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH, HOWEVER, WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO DROP PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO WEST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DROPPING TO BELOW 5000 FEET
WHILE THE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE PEAKS AND THE HIGHER PASSES, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ROADS
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BECOME SLICK IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, IN FACT, SOME OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN OUR AREA SINCE LAST SPRING ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT FOR
CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, FROST OR MAYBE EVEN FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MANY PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE, INCLUDING THE SHASTA,
SCOTT, ROGUE, AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, BUT NOT BECAUSE THE MODELS
ARE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH RIDGING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE BULK OF OUR AREA, WE WILL LIE
JUST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH.
SOME WEAKER SYSTEMS MAY ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS FLOW, AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THE TAIL OF THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH. THE LARGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A
DECENT RAINMAKER FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST. THE NEXT MORE
POTENT WEATHER MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
AND THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN
PRODUCER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL WARM FROM THE COLD WEEKEND,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RIDGING OVERHEAD,
BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY RISING VERY MUCH
HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 60S, AND THE EAST SIDE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED IN THE 50S. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTH AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE UMPQUA. WE WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VIS OVER
THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS THE MOIST AIRMASS COOLS. SOME
CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH WILL
PROMOTE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE OBSCURED BY LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT AS WELL.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THU  OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF IT TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS VERY
SMALL AND FALL MAINLY BETWEEN 9-20NM OFFSHORE AND ONLY DOWN TO OFF
CAPE BLANCO. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM TO 5 PM PDT
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

BPN/FJB/TRW








000
FXUS66 KMFR 300334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES ARE BEING MADE THIS EVENING TO
TWEAK POPS, AND THESE WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS ON RADAR, BUT NOTHING MEASURABLE HAS FALLEN AT ANY
OBSERVING SITES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AROUND 130W
THIS EVENING, BUT AS THE PARENT LOW TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DIG,
THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE RAIN OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND
RAISED THEM A BIT OVER THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EDGING SLOWLY UP
TO THE COAST TOMORROW WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC RAIN DEVELOPING OVER
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...SOME CLEARING IS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. THIS HAS ALSO
RESULTED IN VFR CIGS. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN PARTLY
OBSCURED.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT,
BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER  CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING
THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND
DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY.

THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW
TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES
SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE
NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS
SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE
COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO
FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.

MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING
INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE
SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED
UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 292152
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER  CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. MODELS HAVE DONE POORLY WITH REPRESENTING
THE PRECIPITATION AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE AS THE FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE COOS AND
DOUGLAS COAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND INLAND, MAINLY INTO INTERIOR DOUGLAS
COUNTY.

THEN MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS
TO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO PUSH THE FRONT INLAND AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES FRIDAY EVENING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LINGERING ALONG AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CASCADES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE RAIN WILL BE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A
COLD TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT. RAINFALL MAY BE SLOW
TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING IN WESTERN VALLEYS NEAR THE CASCADES
SUCH AS THE ROGUE AND SHASTA VALLEYS. ALSO SOME WEST SIDE AREAS
MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN BEFORE LIGHT SHOWERS BEGIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND MAINLY LIGHT AND MODELS
INDICATE MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA THE TROUGH DEEPENS. COOL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THOUGH
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WEST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR FROST OVER SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE WELL PAST THE
NORMAL DATE OF THE FIRST KILLING FREEZE IN MANY AREAS...SO THIS
SHOULDN`T BE UNEXPECTED. MEDFORD`S NORMAL DATE OF A FIRST FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES <= 32F) IS OCTOBER 18TH. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER FOG CAN FORM IN THE VALLEYS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WE THINK AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND THE
COAST ARE SAFE SINCE THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. BUT
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE FOR FROST TO
FORM. KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.

MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS
DRYING OUT. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OVER THE WEST SIDE AND IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST SIDE.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES A BIT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF FEATURES. THE 12Z GFS40 DEPICTS A FAST-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVING
INLAND TO THE EAST SIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FASTER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS A DEVIATION FROM ITS 00Z ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE
SLOWER BRINGING IT ONSHORE. THE 12Z ECMWF MEANWHILE IS ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER...WITH PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
THEN SPREADING INLAND TUESDAY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE ECMWF HAS SPED
UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, THE GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR NIL POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER
TUESDAY, THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SPILDE


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, SO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PATCHY
IFR FOG/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD
BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF IT. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT,
BUT THE LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT SUSPECT IT MAY BE
OVERDONE. IN FACT, THE NAM SHOWS A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND. FOR NOW WE`LL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
SHOWING INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WON`T LAST
LONG WITH SWELL HEIGHTS DECREASING ON SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/MD/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 291648
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
948 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE
INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT LINGERS
OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND JUST EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN LIFTS NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAINFALL
BUT VALLEYS AND SOME AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY IN KLAMATH
AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES, MAY ALSO SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN OLD WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CURRY COAST, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
AND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND A
WAVE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. MODELS
SHOW AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING
WITH AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE COAST.

OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE
COAST THURSDAY AND PUSH INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN
IMPACTS FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN LIKELY FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE
DAY. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF BREAK OR AT LEAST LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE WEST SIDE IN THE EVENING. COOL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY. EXPECT A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY  WITH CLEARING
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, A DEVELOPING INVERSION, AND COLD AIR
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL
OCTOBER WITH REGARD TO LOW TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL IMPACT ONGOING
AGRICULTURAL AREAS. ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SINCE ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FROM THE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING
A CHANCE FOR COLD NIGHTTIME AND MORNING TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AT THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. IN ADDITION
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KLAMATH BASIN ARE ALSO SEEING
IFR CIGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MANY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING CIGS DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR.
MANY TERRAIN AND LOWER MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MOST OF THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO SW
OREGON BETWEEN 16-19Z. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY..EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...MOST LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR SW OREGON. WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL. /FB

MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A STEEP WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING GALES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 291556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN OLD WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CURRY COAST, EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
AND INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
LIGHT RAINFALL THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND A
WAVE ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. MODELS
SHOW AGREEMENT THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN THE EVENING
WITH AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE COAST.

OVERALL, EXPECT LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
EVENING. SHOWERS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE ON TRACK FOR A FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE
COAST THURSDAY AND PUSH INLAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COAST, SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREAS AS WELL AS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COAST BY
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER AREAS FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN
IMPACTS FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH RAIN LIKELY FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAIN DURING THE
DAY. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF BREAK OR AT LEAST LESS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE WEST SIDE IN THE EVENING. COOL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY. EXPECT A COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY  WITH CLEARING
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, A DEVELOPING INVERSION, AND COLD AIR
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL
OCTOBER WITH REGARD TO LOW TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL IMPACT ONGOING
AGRICULTURAL AREAS. ALSO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SINCE ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT FROM THE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING
A CHANCE FOR COLD NIGHTTIME AND MORNING TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD AT THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. IN ADDITION
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE KLAMATH BASIN ARE ALSO SEEING
IFR CIGS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN MANY
VALLEYS THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING CIGS DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR.
MANY TERRAIN AND LOWER MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MOST OF THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO SW
OREGON BETWEEN 16-19Z. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR. WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY..EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR...MOST LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR SW OREGON. WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS STILL PLENTIFUL. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A STEEP WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING GALES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. /FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE  BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH EACH SYSTEM, THUS
THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE ARE
MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE REGARDING THE SHORT TERM, BUT DESPITE SIMILAR MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TERM.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN TAKING IN TO CONSIDERATION THE ISSUES
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH THAT HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, IT SEEMS THE ACTIVE AND WET
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
WASHED OUT AS IT CROSSED THE CASCADES. THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL
TRANSITION AND LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT, AND AS A RESULT,
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MOSTLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH TO THE REGION. AN INTERESTING ASPECT OF THIS NEXT STORM IS
THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A DOUBLE SHOT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL SLOW AND
MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD, AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW FORMS JUST OFFSHORE OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW
THEN PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, ALONG WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, FRIDAY NIGHT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A RAINY THURSDAY
FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, WITH RAIN THEN SPREADING INLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS THE TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD.

NORMALLY A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WOULD BE A WIND MAKER FOR MANY LOCAL
AREAS, BUT IN THIS CASE, THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE VERY BREEZY WINDS,
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LIKEWISE, THE COAST
AND WEST SIDE WILL SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING
FROM THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT BEING FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY THE
SECOND LOW. EITHER WAY, RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTIC OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO OF NOTE, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BELOW 5000 FEET
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DROP SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE
HIGHER PASSES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT, ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, ESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
COAST TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY WELL TO
OUR NORTH, SOME SHOWERS MAY FIND THEIR WAY ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM IS ON
TAP TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD US AROUND MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES, AT WHICH TIME VERY
COOL AIR WILL SETTLE IN. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE THE
COLDEST SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, ALTHOUGH THE VALUES WILL BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/MD







000
FXUS66 KMFR 291040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE  BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH EACH SYSTEM, THUS
THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE ARE
MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE REGARDING THE SHORT TERM, BUT DESPITE SIMILAR MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TERM.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN TAKING IN TO CONSIDERATION THE ISSUES
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH THAT HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, IT SEEMS THE ACTIVE AND WET
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
WASHED OUT AS IT CROSSED THE CASCADES. THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL
TRANSITION AND LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT, AND AS A RESULT,
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MOSTLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH TO THE REGION. AN INTERESTING ASPECT OF THIS NEXT STORM IS
THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A DOUBLE SHOT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL SLOW AND
MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD, AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW FORMS JUST OFFSHORE OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW
THEN PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, ALONG WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, FRIDAY NIGHT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A RAINY THURSDAY
FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, WITH RAIN THEN SPREADING INLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS THE TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD.

NORMALLY A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WOULD BE A WIND MAKER FOR MANY LOCAL
AREAS, BUT IN THIS CASE, THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE VERY BREEZY WINDS,
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LIKEWISE, THE COAST
AND WEST SIDE WILL SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING
FROM THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT BEING FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY THE
SECOND LOW. EITHER WAY, RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTIC OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO OF NOTE, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BELOW 5000 FEET
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DROP SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE
HIGHER PASSES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT, ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, ESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
COAST TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY WELL TO
OUR NORTH, SOME SHOWERS MAY FIND THEIR WAY ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM IS ON
TAP TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD US AROUND MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES, AT WHICH TIME VERY
COOL AIR WILL SETTLE IN. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE THE
COLDEST SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, ALTHOUGH THE VALUES WILL BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -BPN



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND WITH SOME CLEARING..AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS
AND VIS ARE NOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO TERRAIN OBSCURATION
WITH LOW COASTAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH
COAST, AND UMPQUA BASIN. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. /FB


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A STEEP WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING GALES. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/FJB








000
FXUS66 KMFR 291040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE  BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN, BUT HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH EACH SYSTEM, THUS
THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE ARE
MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE REGARDING THE SHORT TERM, BUT DESPITE SIMILAR MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TERM.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN TAKING IN TO CONSIDERATION THE ISSUES
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH THAT HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FORECAST SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, IT SEEMS THE ACTIVE AND WET
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING LATELY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
WASHED OUT AS IT CROSSED THE CASCADES. THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL
TRANSITION AND LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT, AND AS A RESULT,
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MOSTLY WEST OF THE
CASCADES. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH TO THE REGION. AN INTERESTING ASPECT OF THIS NEXT STORM IS
THAT IT APPEARS TO BE A DOUBLE SHOT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL SLOW AND
MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
PARENT LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH EASTWARD, AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW FORMS JUST OFFSHORE OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW
THEN PUSHES INTO THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, ALONG WITH A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, FRIDAY NIGHT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A RAINY THURSDAY
FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, WITH RAIN THEN SPREADING INLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS THE TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD.

NORMALLY A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WOULD BE A WIND MAKER FOR MANY LOCAL
AREAS, BUT IN THIS CASE, THE EAST SIDE WILL SEE VERY BREEZY WINDS,
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LIKEWISE, THE COAST
AND WEST SIDE WILL SEE ONLY SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING
FROM THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT BEING FOLLOWED SO CLOSELY BY THE
SECOND LOW. EITHER WAY, RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTIC OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO OF NOTE, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BELOW 5000 FEET
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DROP SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE
HIGHER PASSES, AND MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT, ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, ESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE
COAST TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE BULK OF RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY WELL TO
OUR NORTH, SOME SHOWERS MAY FIND THEIR WAY ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM IS ON
TAP TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD US AROUND MIDWEEK.

TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES, AT WHICH TIME VERY
COOL AIR WILL SETTLE IN. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BE THE
COLDEST SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, ALTHOUGH THE VALUES WILL BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -BPN



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND WITH SOME CLEARING..AREAS OF MVFR AND LCL IFR CIGS
AND VIS ARE NOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO TERRAIN OBSCURATION
WITH LOW COASTAL MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH
COAST, AND UMPQUA BASIN. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. /FB


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WED 29 OCT 2014...A STEEP WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING GALES. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/FJB








000
FXUS66 KMFR 290302
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
802 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...AM NOT PLANNING ANY UPDATES THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL
BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. THERE
ARE A LOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD, BUT THE
RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING MOST OF IT. THE ONE PLACE IT`S NOT SO LIGHT
IS ALONG THE CURRY COAST AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE LIFTED OVER THE TERRAIN. LOCATIONS THERE ARE
STILL GETTING UP TO 0.20 INCH PER HOUR. HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST, THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE
COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN BECOMING LIGHTER IN THESE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT, AND THE MODELS ALL CONSISTENTLY SHOW THIS.

THE FRONT THEN BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW.
IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME RAIN AS IT DOES THIS, BUT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH. THE FORECAST HAS THIS ALL COVERED, SO NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURED CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT BECOMING IFR IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 11Z WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF KLMT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 28 OCT 2014...THE WIND WAVE AND
SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BOTH BE SIGNIFICANT AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 12 TO 16 FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BUT A HIGH AND STEEP WEST
SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT
THIS TIME WERE NOT EXPECTING GALES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST. ANOTHER
FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING, THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE CASCADES AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.  THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INLAND. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW A A
DISTURBANCE MOVING UP INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES
WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING ALONG COAST IN THE
EVENING AND SPREADING INLAND INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. OTHERWISE ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA.

THEN ON THURSDAY, A STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE PACNW COAST. MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL AND SHOWERY AIRMASS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RAINFALL THURSDAY, BEGINNING ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, AS
WELL AS LOWERED SNOW LEVELS IN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO
SOON TO TELL WHICH AREA WILL SEE THE MOST SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK OR DECREASE IN SHOWERS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS FILLING INTO THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE
EVENING AND NIGHT FOR HALLOWEEN. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 TO
5500 FEET THEN DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SO SHOWERS WITH THE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY SATURDAY...THE CWA WILL
BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH, BUT UNDERNEATH THE
500MB COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES OVERALL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCES, COASTAL AREAS WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL. WITH
STILL ENOUGH OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE COMPONENT, SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A FOCUS OVER THE NORTH AND
WEST FACING TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE MAJOR PASSES
IN THE MORNING WHERE A SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT THEN
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. WE AREN`T SEEING
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS, SO WE`LL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST. SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AND
COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ALOFT BUT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BIT MORE
OF A ROBUST MOISTURE FIELD COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHILE
THE GFS WOULD HAVE A DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE, BUT
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HIGHER POPS WEST SIDE. EAST SIDE
AREAS PROBABLY DON`T SEE MUCH AT ALL.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FLOW DIRECTED INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND WASHINGTON. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD NEAR 30N AND 130W AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH MORE OF A BROAD
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK TOWARD CLIMO FOR ALL LOCATIONS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 282211
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE CASCADES AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.  THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INLAND. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW A A
DISTURBANCE MOVING UP INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES
WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING ALONG COAST IN THE
EVENING AND SPREADING INLAND INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. OTHERWISE ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA.

THEN ON THURSDAY, A STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE PACNW COAST. MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL AND SHOWERY AIRMASS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RAINFALL THURSDAY, BEGINNING ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, AS
WELL AS LOWERED SNOW LEVELS IN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO
SOON TO TELL WHICH AREA WILL SEE THE MOST SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK OR DECREASE IN SHOWERS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS FILLING INTO THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE
EVENING AND NIGHT FOR HALLOWEEN. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 TO
5500 FEET THEN DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SO SHOWERS WITH THE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY SATURDAY...THE CWA WILL
BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH, BUT UNDERNEATH THE
500MB COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES OVERALL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCES, COASTAL AREAS WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL. WITH
STILL ENOUGH OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE COMPONENT, SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A FOCUS OVER THE NORTH AND
WEST FACING TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE MAJOR PASSES
IN THE MORNING WHERE A SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT THEN
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. WE AREN`T SEEING
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS, SO WE`LL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST. SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AND
COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ALOFT BUT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BIT MORE
OF A ROBUST MOISTURE FIELD COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHILE
THE GFS WOULD HAVE A DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE, BUT
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HIGHER POPS WEST SIDE. EAST SIDE
AREAS PROBABLY DON`T SEE MUCH AT ALL.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FLOW DIRECTED INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND WASHINGTON. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD NEAR 30N AND 130W AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH MORE OF A BROAD
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK TOWARD CLIMO FOR ALL LOCATIONS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURED CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT BECOMING IFR IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD MORNING. MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH LIGHT -SHRA NORTH AND WEST OF KLMT. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 28 OCT 2014...THE WIND WAVE AND
SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BOTH BE SIGNIFICANT AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 12 TO 16 FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BUT A HIGH AND STEEP WEST
SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT
THIS TIME WERE NOT EXPECTING GALES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST. ANOTHER
FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING, THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

CC











000
FXUS66 KMFR 282204
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE SPREAD INLAND TO THE
CASCADES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND OVER THE CASCADES AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.  THEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...LIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INLAND. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW A A
DISTURBANCE MOVING UP INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES
WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING ALONG COAST IN THE
EVENING AND SPREADING INLAND INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. OTHERWISE ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA.

THEN ON THURSDAY, A STRONGER AND SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE PACNW COAST. MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COOL AND SHOWERY AIRMASS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE RAINFALL THURSDAY, BEGINNING ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, AS
WELL AS LOWERED SNOW LEVELS IN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO
SOON TO TELL WHICH AREA WILL SEE THE MOST SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK OR DECREASE IN SHOWERS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS FILLING INTO THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE
EVENING AND NIGHT FOR HALLOWEEN. SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET THEN DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH THE LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY SATURDAY...THE CWA WILL
BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH, BUT UNDERNEATH THE
500MB COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES OVERALL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. DUE TO MARINE
INFLUENCES, COASTAL AREAS WILL NOT BE AS ANOMALOUSLY COOL. WITH
STILL ENOUGH OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE COMPONENT, SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH A FOCUS OVER THE NORTH AND
WEST FACING TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN NEAR THE MAJOR PASSES
IN THE MORNING WHERE A SMALL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT THEN
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 5000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. WE AREN`T SEEING
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS, SO WE`LL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST. SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AND
COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

HEIGHTS RISE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ALOFT BUT THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BIT MORE
OF A ROBUST MOISTURE FIELD COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHILE
THE GFS WOULD HAVE A DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE, BUT
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HIGHER POPS WEST SIDE. EAST SIDE
AREAS PROBABLY DON`T SEE MUCH AT ALL.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FLOW DIRECTED INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND WASHINGTON. A RIDGE WILL
BUILD NEAR 30N AND 130W AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH MORE OF A BROAD
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK TOWARD CLIMO FOR ALL LOCATIONS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH
TERRAIN OBSCURED CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT BECOMING IFR IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
VALLEYS TOWARD MORNING. MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH LIGHT -SHRA NORTH AND WEST OF KLMT. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 28 OCT 2014...THE WIND WAVE AND
SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BOTH BE SIGNIFICANT AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 12 TO 16 FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BUT A HIGH AND STEEP WEST
SWELL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT AT
THIS TIME WERE NOT EXPECTING GALES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE WEST. ANOTHER
FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING, THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 281607
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
907 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE COAST THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAINLY EXPECT JUST LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FRONT FOR AREAS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AFTER TONIGHT, MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME CONTINUED SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEN
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD AND SHOWERY AIRMASS. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET WITH THIS TROUGH
AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH
RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. MVFR CIGS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME
OBSCURED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT TUE 28 OCT 2014...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE OUTER WATERS AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINING WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALES AFTER 7 AM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE VICINITY OF CAPE
BLANCO NORTHWARD AND BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE.

THE WIND WAVE AND SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BOTH BE SIGNIFICANT AS SEAS
BUILD TO A PEAK AROUND 12 TO 16 FEET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT A HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO ITS
PEAK AT AROUND 11 FEET AT 14 SECONDS. SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL
REMAIN HEAVY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW PRECEDING FRONTS...BUT IT WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS. A SIMILARLY STRONG FRONT
IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW EARLY FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
SWELL WILL MOVE IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
IMPROVE SUNDAY. /FB



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THAT HAS REMAINED ON PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATELY SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LEAVING ANYTIME
SOON. SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
GENERAL PATTERN, SHOWING A SERIES OF TROUGHS ENTERING THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AND EACH ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE
RAIN AND WIND. AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES, EACH SYSTEM ALSO HAS MORE
POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SNOW, AND IN THIS CASE, THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO PASS
LEVELS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A WET WEEK, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS.

BUT BEFORE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAKER
WAVE SET TO PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, AND THE TROUGH APPEARS IN MOST FORECAST
CHARTS AS LITTLE MORE THAN A WAVE, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ANNA WILL BE INVOLVED, AND THIS WILL ALLOW WHAT WOULD BE A
RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A LOT MORE PRECIPITATION. MODELS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT LATER TODAY, SO HAVE
DELAYED PASSAGE BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOR THE CASCADES AND THE WEST
SIDE, WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT
ALL.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY. OVERRUNNING WILL GIVE MOST AREAS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ACTUALLY
CHANGE VERY MUCH AT ALL, REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
A RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WILL HELP KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
DOWN, BUT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE COAST WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT,
MUCH STRONGER, SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE POTENT, BUT A SLOW MOVER.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST THURSDAY EVENING, THEN SPREAD
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT, UNLIKE THE LAST EVENT, SO STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY, ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THERE IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND WHILE
STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ONCE IT PASSES FRIDAY
MORNING, THE RESULTING INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS MEANS HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES MAY HAVE TO DEAL
WITH WET AND COOL WEATHER. ALSO, WITH FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING
DRAMATICALLY TO 4000-5000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT, FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL BE THE PRIME TIME FOR SNOWFALL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING THE HIGHER PASSES, AND OVER THE EAST SIDE. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, BUT MAY CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME SLICK. ALSO,
STRONGER SHOWERS OVER THE WEST SIDE MAY CAUSE GRAUPEL, OR SNOW
PELLETS, TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SHOULD THIS OCCUR,
THESE WILL QUICKLY MELT UPON REACHING THE GROUND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES THE TREND OF WET AND COOL WEATHER. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EARLY TO MID WEEK. THIS LAST
FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND PRECIPITATION
EVENT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME TO ADD
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

CC








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