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000
FXUS66 KMFR 200349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS ON ITS WAY INTO NEVADA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT REMAINED LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EASING THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH CLEARING SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. EXPECTING A LOW
NEAR 38 IN MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, BUT SOME LOCAL SPOTS MAY DIP
DOWN TO 34 OR 35 AROUND SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY (NPWMFR) REMAINS
IN EFFECT. AFTER A CHILLY START, EASTER SUNDAY WILL HAVE A MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD GET WET WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FURTHER DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS AND WIND WILL BOTH
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) WHERE
SOME RADIATIONAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/FOG BURNS
OFF TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002
WHERE IT PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL
DECAY TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH
PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED
AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR
DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA. CMC

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CMC/MAP/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 200349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS ON ITS WAY INTO NEVADA AND IDAHO THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT REMAINED LARGELY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH
ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY.

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
EASING THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN. WITH CLEARING SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME OF TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES. EXPECTING A LOW
NEAR 38 IN MEDFORD AND GRANTS PASS, BUT SOME LOCAL SPOTS MAY DIP
DOWN TO 34 OR 35 AROUND SUNRISE. A FROST ADVISORY (NPWMFR) REMAINS
IN EFFECT. AFTER A CHILLY START, EASTER SUNDAY WILL HAVE A MILD
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INLAND MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE.
MOST AREAS SHOULD GET WET WITH THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FURTHER DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS AND WIND WILL BOTH
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND UMPQUA (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) WHERE
SOME RADIATIONAL STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN. AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/FOG BURNS
OFF TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002
WHERE IT PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL
DECAY TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH
PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED
AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR
DAMAGED. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA. CMC

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CMC/MAP/TRW








000
FXUS66 KMFR 200220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002 WHERE IT
PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL DECAY
TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH PERIODS
LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS
OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS
OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE
SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS
SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 200220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
720 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI

.MARINE...A VERY HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AT BUOY 46002 WHERE IT
PEAKED AT 23 FEET 16 SECONDS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SWELL DECAY
TOOLS SHOW THAT IT WILL STILL BE AT AROUND 20 FEET WITH PERIODS
LENGTHENING TO AROUND 18 SECONDS WHEN IT ARRIVES AT THE COAST
OVERNIGHT, SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS EXTENDED ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS
OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS
OF AROUND 850 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE
SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS
SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5
     PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 192146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING AS WIND WAVES SUBSIDE, HOWEVER, A VERY HEAVY LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME
PRIOR TO REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL
ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE
RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 192146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A WEAK FRONT EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY. THEN A MORE ACTIVE AND MOIST PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY, A WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND TO THE CASCADES
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS DOUGLAS
COUNTY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT CLEARING SKIES, ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTY DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES IMPACTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INLAND AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN COOS AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS FORECAST A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA...THEN PUSH INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODELS INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CASCADES AND INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. CURRENTLY HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY VALUES BUT KEPT MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
INLAND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

THEN MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM AROUND 6000 TO
7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING DOWN TO 5000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER TO AROUND 4000 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN
SHOWERS EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

A COLD SHOWERY AIR MASS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO PLACE. ALSO THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, THE NAM SHOWS INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS.

MODELS SHOW INCREASED VARIABILITY CONCERNING HOW MUCH SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF INDICATES A WEAKER RIDGE WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OFFSHORE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
OREGON AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE`LL BE COOLER AND UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN AND WE COULD CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE EC SHOWS WARM FRONT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT
COULD SPREAD STEADY MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS HAS THE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND THERE`S MORE RIDGING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND BETWEEN
THE TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, BUT IT
MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN BECAUSE IT`S IT`S NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW, THUS DRIVING THE FRONT
INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LIKELY TO BE COOL AND UNSETTLED. OF NOTE THE RMOP CONTINUES TO SHOW
A HIGH PROBABILITY (67%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (56%), OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY (49% AND 43%),
THESE ARE CONSIDERED PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT AND ARE HIGHER
THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AND THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ADD TO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TURBULENCE ALONG AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES AND
GUSTY WINDS AT KLMT THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS RETURN ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT AND IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IFR CIGS AT
KRBG, BUT IT DIDN`T SHOW IT YESTERDAY EITHER AND LOW CIGS FORMED
AROUND 13Z. FOR NOW KEPT IT IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT
TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING AS WIND WAVES SUBSIDE, HOWEVER, A VERY HEAVY LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS
WILL BECOME VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME
PRIOR TO REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL
ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE
RELOCATED OR DAMAGED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 191554
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A VERY WEAK FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST AND WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY JUST EXPECTED TO GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
OUTSIDE THE COASTAL AREAS...UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING SATURDAY EVENING. BESIDES
LIGHT RAIN...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE BEACHES AND COAST AS INCREASED SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK THOUGH. OFFSHORE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STRONGER AND MOIST FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY
AND INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE FROM SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALIGN THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE THIS MORNING AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT.
SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.


&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASURABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191554
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A VERY WEAK FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST AND WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY VERY LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY JUST EXPECTED TO GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
OUTSIDE THE COASTAL AREAS...UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN POSSIBLE IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING SATURDAY EVENING. BESIDES
LIGHT RAIN...THE ONLY OTHER IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE BEACHES AND COAST AS INCREASED SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK THOUGH. OFFSHORE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A STRONGER AND MOIST FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY
AND INLAND MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/12Z TAF CYCLE...ASIDE FROM SOME MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALIGN THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE THIS MORNING AS A
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN
ELSEWHERE TODAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT.
SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.


&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASURABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 191115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASUREABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING
KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT
IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN ELSEHWERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS
TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT. SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/BPN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 191115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
415 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT WEEK
AND LIKELY INTO EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL DURING MOST OF THAT TIME. BUT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

FIRST, A COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND IN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF A MEASUREABLE AMOUNT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND FAR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO RECEIVE
MORE THAN A FEW RAIN DROPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AT THE COAST
AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS IN THE REST OF
OUR AREA, IT WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST POSSIBLE IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST PARTS OF THE ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, AND ROGUE
VALLEYS...AWAY FROM CITY CENTERS. MEANTIME, HIGH SURF WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS RARE
THAT THERE WILL BE LARGE WAVES DURING A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY BUT
THAT WILL NOT MAKE THE SURF ANY LESS DANGEROUS. BREAKERS WILL BE
MAINLY 22 TO 24 FEET BUT SNEAKER WAVES OF LARGER HEIGHT ARE
LIKELY. VISITORS TO THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM JETTIES AND PIERS AND FAR AWAY FROM BREAKING SURF.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND THURSDAY THERE WILL BE FREQUENT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE WEST SIDE
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH
THE COAST BY THE END OF THE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 5000 FEET
BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS
INCREASED IN THE FORECAST. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FORECAST ON THE EAST SIDE AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND I HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE EAST SIDE. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE TRICKY WHEN IT IS COLD AND SHOWERY THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THE ANGLE OF THE SUN, LENGTH OF THE DAY, AND
WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SNOW MELTING AS IT HITS THE
GROUND. THUS, THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET
BUT SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXED IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AS LOW AS
3000 FEET DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER
AN OFFSHORE RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHT WARMING BUT MOST NOTABLY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN WESTERN OREGON.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH A FOCUS FOR RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND
WASHINGTON. THE GFS IS STRONGER/WETTER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THEREAFTER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FEATURES. BUT, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ACTIVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING INLAND. WHAT COULD
BE THE STRONGEST OF THE WHOLE SERIES OF FRONTS IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY APRIL 27TH, BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE VERY LARGE/CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING
KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT
IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN ELSEHWERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS
TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT KLMT. SOME WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH CONCERNING THE MANY ISSUES AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BECOME
VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY. SWELL WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO
REACHING THE INNER WATERS...SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST...BUT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INNER WATERS. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY
BREAKERS OVER BARS AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. FISHING GEAR LOCATED AT
DEPTHS OF AROUND 750 FEET OR LESS COULD BE RELOCATED OR DAMAGED.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
SEVERAL MORE SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
NUMEROUS SYSTEMS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/BPN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 190356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INLAND
TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVER THE EAST SIDE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, BUT IT WILL
KICK UP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INFORMATION
CONTAINED WITHIN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID AND IT
FOLLOWS BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
RAIN ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WAVE TURBULENCE
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-CMC

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CMC/TRW/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 190356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE IS NOT NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INLAND
TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
ONSHORE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVER THE EAST SIDE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, BUT IT WILL
KICK UP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INFORMATION
CONTAINED WITHIN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS STILL VALID AND IT
FOLLOWS BELOW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE SATURDAY (INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG) ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
RAIN ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WAVE TURBULENCE
EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-CMC

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/CMC/TRW/MAP








000
FXUS66 KMFR 182129
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 18/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KRBG, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. FOR NOW DID NOT
PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-14Z AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 182129
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 PM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT MOVING INLAND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE COAST DURING SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND INTO AREAS
FROM THE CASCADES WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INLAND TO BE OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT
CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED THOUGH ON  SUNDAY
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE GRANTS PASS AND ILLINOIS VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.

ON MONDAY....AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE
PACNW COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND BRING A FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MODELS INDICATE
SOUTHERLY  MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHWEST
JET ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1, THINK THERE IS VERY
LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO MOST THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE PRECIPITATION TO MATCH
THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT TO
4500 TO 5000 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON AREA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE OPERATIONAL EC AND
GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IT WILL BE COOLER AND
UNSTABLE MOST OF THE TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
OREGON COAST WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EC AND GFS SHOW
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -29 AND -32C MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THOSE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED THUNDER. FOR NOW LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT IT`S SOMETHING THAT WE`LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THAT HAPPENS. AT ANY RATE, WE
COULD CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A WARM FRONT SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
ALEUTIANS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
SENDING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. IT`S
POSSIBLE THIS FRONT COULD GET HUNG UP OR SLOW DOWN SOME BECAUSE IT`S
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG
SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW,
THUS DRIVING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA, BUT THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
FRIDAY. OF NOTE THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICABILITY (RMOP) SHOWS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (56%) OF A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FRIDAY EVENING, MOVING TOWARDS THE OREGON COAST SATURDAY
EVENING (49%), THEN OVER OUR AREA NEXT SUNDAY (43%) THESE ARE
PRETTY HIGH VALUES THIS FAR OUT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 18/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KRBG, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. FOR NOW DID NOT
PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAF, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT THIS. CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-14Z AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS PRETTY HIGH AS THE MODELS
HAVE REMAINED LOCKED ON TO THE VARIOUS FEATURES OF CONCERN FOR A
WHILE NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN SWITCH TO SOUTH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. SEAS WILL
ALSO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WIND WAVE
COMPONENT, ALTHOUGH WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.  A VERY LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SWELLS OF 18-20 FEET
AND PERIODS OF ONLY 16 SECONDS, SEAS WILL BE VERY STEEP, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SWELLS WILL DECAY SOME PRIOR TO REACHING THE
INNER WATERS, SO THE WARNING DOES NOT EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST, BUT SEAS WILL BE AT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE
INNER WATERS. THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR
THAT TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGER AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS VARIOUS SWELL TRAINS PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE REGION. -WRIGHT


&&


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ310.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 181545
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXPECT TODAY TO BE
DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING IN MOST
INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND INTO SOME EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY AROUND NOON TODAY. UPDATED THE
FORECAST SKY COVER FOR THESE TRENDS.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW,
WELL TO THE NORTH, MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE AREA WILL
SEE THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT. MODEL FORECAST MAINLY JUST SHOW
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE COAST...COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND UMPQUA
BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...LARGE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL MARINE WATERS AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 18/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME COMMON IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO
VFR BY ROUGHLY 17 UTC. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
OVER ALL AREAS. TONIGHT...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT ISSUE BEING THAT OF HEAVY SWELL
ENTERING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. BUT FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY...AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SWELL
COULD RELOCATE CRAB GEAR...AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY CALM
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. -BPN/DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS
OF .15-.25" FELL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE UMPQUA AND IN
THE OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS REMAINED ABOVE THE PASSES.
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING UP TO 10 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY FOR MANY
AREAS. HOWEVER AREAS EAST WILL SEE A COOLER DAY VERSUS THURSDAY
BY UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS SEEN OFFSHORE
SPREADING CLOUDS BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. THE PARENT LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS ROBUST WITH THE LATEST GFS INDICATING A SURFACE LOW OF
970MB LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. AFTER THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE COAST AND
UMPQUA SATURDAY...THE SWELL GENERATED FROM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SWELLS OF 16 TO 17 FEET WITH BREAKERS UP TO 24 FEET IN THE SURF
ZONE ARE EXPECTED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DRIES
OUT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY PROVIDING DRY
AND MILD WEATHER AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THEN...YET ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH SOUTH FLOW INCREASING
OVER THE AREA. PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY AT LEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS
THIS DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS WELL.

THEREAFTER THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK THE LONGER RANGE EURO AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE SUBTLE RIDGING BUT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES HERE AND
THERE IN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FLOW. LATER...TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON AN INTERESTING CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER THAT LOOKS QUITE COOL AND WET AS THE POLAR JET TAKES A DIP
WELL SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE AND UNUSUALLY
COOL AND WET WEATHER TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH. STAY TUNED. STAVISH


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ310.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 181049
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS
OF .15-.25" FELL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE UMPQUA AND IN
THE OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS REMAINED ABOVE THE PASSES.
SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING UP TO 10 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY FOR MANY
AREAS. HOWEVER AREAS EAST WILL SEE A COOLER DAY VERSUS THURSDAY
BY UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS SEEN OFFSHORE
SPREADING CLOUDS BETWEEN 130 AND 140W. THE PARENT LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS ROBUST WITH THE LATEST GFS INDICATING A SURFACE LOW OF
970MB LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. AFTER THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE COAST AND
UMPQUA SATURDAY...THE SWELL GENERATED FROM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SWELLS OF 16 TO 17 FEET WITH BREAKERS UP TO 24 FEET IN THE SURF
ZONE ARE EXPECTED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DRIES
OUT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY PROVIDING DRY
AND MILD WEATHER AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THEN...YET ANOTHER TROUGH
ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONDAY WITH SOUTH FLOW INCREASING
OVER THE AREA. PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY AT LEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS
THIS DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHES INLAND. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS WELL.

THEREAFTER THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK THE LONGER RANGE EURO AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE SUBTLE RIDGING BUT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES HERE AND
THERE IN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FLOW. LATER...TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON AN INTERESTING CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER THAT LOOKS QUITE COOL AND WET AS THE POLAR JET TAKES A DIP
WELL SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE AND UNUSUALLY
COOL AND WET WEATHER TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH. STAY TUNED. STAVISH

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH
AROUND 16Z FRIDAY...THEN GRADUAL CLEARING TO VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGEST IN INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON. EAST OF THE CASCADES...LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES, INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF
ALTURAS AND LAKEVIEW, WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO, LOCAL
MVFR CEILINGS WILL  TRANSITION TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 16Z FRIDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT ISSUE BEING THAT OF HEAVY SWELL
ENTERING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. BUT FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY...AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE
HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SWELL
COULD RELOCATE CRAB GEAR...AND WILL SUPPORT HEAVY BREAKERS OVER BARS
AND WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY CALM
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. -BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11
     AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 180413
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 6/WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRACKED EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SOON EXIT FROM LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND AND WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. AS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE...MAINLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH
SOME AMOUNTS IN DOUGLAS COUNTY APPROACHING FOUR TENTHS (0.40 IN).
WHILE ITS STRENGTH IS NOT ESPECIALLY NOTABLE, THE FRONT DID
PROVIDE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA SINCE TWO
WEEKS AGO. IT ALSO HAS PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...EAST
OF RED BLUFF IN THE VICINITY OF MT. LASSEN AS WELL AS IN HARNEY
COUNTY OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A CELL PASSING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MODOC
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A DRIER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON ON
SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WEST SIDE INTO THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE ROGUE VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (PDXCFWMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A PERIOD OF RAPIDLY RISING AND
VERY HIGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS LARGE
WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL COULD PRODUCE BREAKERS OF 22 TO 24 FEET
AND DANGEROUS SNEAKER WAVES.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS BUT GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE THEREAFTER AT LEAST THROUGH
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 18/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT THE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...CLEARING
TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOCAL MVFR CIGS
IN SHOWERS WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN FAR EASTERN MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTIES DURING WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE FOCUS IS ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL THAT IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY BUILD SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH AT 16 TO 19 FEET AT 16 SECONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COULD RELOCATE
CRAB GEAR AND IT WILL SUPPORT HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH
SNEAKER WAVES. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE,
BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF IT.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS BUILDING UP IN MODOC AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, BUT THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE NOTHING HAPPENS.

THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THEY`LL TEND TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ONE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WERE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF FROM THIS FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WITH
0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AND MOST THIS WILL BE FROM NOW INTO
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THAT`S IT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND AND END UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE LATE IN THE MORNING AT THE COAST,
THEN INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS STILL WEAKER COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC AND GEM, BUT THE LATTER ARE ALSO TRENDING WEAKER COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WEAKER NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EASTER SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
-PETRUCELLI

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...FROM MONDAY MORNING ONWARD. OTHER THAN SOME
TIMING ISSUES THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE POISED TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT COMES
ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SIDE WITH THE GFS INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST EAST. WITH THE ANTECEDENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTH NOT SETTING
IN UNTIL THAT MORNING AM NOT ADDING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT TIME
FRAME AS THERE WILL NOT BE THE USUAL DAY AHEAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
NORMALLY NEEDED TO "PRIME THE PUMP" FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS FIRST
FRONT COMES IN ON THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET THAT IS CURVED
AROUND FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY JET WELL OFFSHORE. THE CORE OF THE JET
IS AROUND 140W. SHOWERS REMAIN IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CORE OF
THE 120KT JET APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY..BRINGING
ANOTHER..MORE POTENT FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FLOW THEN
BECOMES ZONAL..AND WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A PATTERN THAT IS
ALREADY DIFFICULT TO TIME FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO
     11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/JRS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 180413
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 6/WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
TRACKED EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
SOON EXIT FROM LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. A SECONDARY TROUGH WITH
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND AND WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. AS EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE...MAINLY LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH
SOME AMOUNTS IN DOUGLAS COUNTY APPROACHING FOUR TENTHS (0.40 IN).
WHILE ITS STRENGTH IS NOT ESPECIALLY NOTABLE, THE FRONT DID
PROVIDE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA SINCE TWO
WEEKS AGO. IT ALSO HAS PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF OUR AREA...EAST
OF RED BLUFF IN THE VICINITY OF MT. LASSEN AS WELL AS IN HARNEY
COUNTY OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING THOUGH WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF A CELL PASSING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MODOC
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A DRIER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON ON
SATURDAY THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WEST SIDE INTO THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE ROGUE VALLEY.
THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (PDXCFWMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A PERIOD OF RAPIDLY RISING AND
VERY HIGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS LARGE
WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL COULD PRODUCE BREAKERS OF 22 TO 24 FEET
AND DANGEROUS SNEAKER WAVES.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF RIDGING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS BUT GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE THEREAFTER AT LEAST THROUGH
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 18/00Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT THE LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...CLEARING
TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOCAL MVFR CIGS
IN SHOWERS WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN FAR EASTERN MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTIES DURING WHAT REMAINS OF THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE FOCUS IS ON A WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL THAT IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY BUILD SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH AT 16 TO 19 FEET AT 16 SECONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FIRST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE WATERS ON FRIDAY THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COULD RELOCATE
CRAB GEAR AND IT WILL SUPPORT HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH
SNEAKER WAVES. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE,
BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF IT.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS BUILDING UP IN MODOC AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, BUT THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE NOTHING HAPPENS.

THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THEY`LL TEND TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ONE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WERE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF FROM THIS FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WITH
0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AND MOST THIS WILL BE FROM NOW INTO
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THAT`S IT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND AND END UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE LATE IN THE MORNING AT THE COAST,
THEN INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS STILL WEAKER COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC AND GEM, BUT THE LATTER ARE ALSO TRENDING WEAKER COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WEAKER NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EASTER SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
-PETRUCELLI

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...FROM MONDAY MORNING ONWARD. OTHER THAN SOME
TIMING ISSUES THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE POISED TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT COMES
ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SIDE WITH THE GFS INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST EAST. WITH THE ANTECEDENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTH NOT SETTING
IN UNTIL THAT MORNING AM NOT ADDING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT TIME
FRAME AS THERE WILL NOT BE THE USUAL DAY AHEAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
NORMALLY NEEDED TO "PRIME THE PUMP" FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS FIRST
FRONT COMES IN ON THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET THAT IS CURVED
AROUND FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY JET WELL OFFSHORE. THE CORE OF THE JET
IS AROUND 140W. SHOWERS REMAIN IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CORE OF
THE 120KT JET APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY..BRINGING
ANOTHER..MORE POTENT FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FLOW THEN
BECOMES ZONAL..AND WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A PATTERN THAT IS
ALREADY DIFFICULT TO TIME FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO
     11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/JRS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 172152
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE,
BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF IT.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS BUILDING UP IN MODOC AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, BUT THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE NOTHING HAPPENS.

THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THEY`LL TEND TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ONE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WERE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF FROM THIS FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WITH
0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AND MOST THIS WILL BE FROM NOW INTO
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THAT`S IT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND AND END UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE LATE IN THE MORNING AT THE COAST,
THEN INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS STILL WEAKER COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC AND GEM, BUT THE LATTER ARE ALSO TRENDING WEAKER COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WEAKER NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EASTER SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
-PETRUCELLI

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...FROM MONDAY MORNING ONWARD. OTHER THAN SOME
TIMING ISSUES THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE POISED TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT COMES
ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SIDE WITH THE GFS INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST EAST. WITH THE ANTECEDENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTH NOT SETTING
IN UNTIL THAT MORNING AM NOT ADDING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT TIME
FRAME AS THERE WILL NOT BE THE USUAL DAY AHEAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
NORMALLY NEEDED TO "PRIME THE PUMP" FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS FIRST
FRONT COMES IN ON THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET THAT IS CURVED
AROUND FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY JET WELL OFFSHORE. THE CORE OF THE JET
IS AROUND 140W. SHOWERS REMAIN IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CORE OF
THE 120KT JET APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY..BRINGING
ANOTHER..MORE POTENT FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FLOW THEN
BECOMES ZONAL..AND WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A PATTERN THAT IS
ALREADY DIFFICULT TO TIME FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/18Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE CASCADES INTO THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY
AND ENDS OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN PORTIONS OF MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
SVEN


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL...WHICH WILL BE
THE HIGHEST IMPACT EVENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
TO 16 TO 18 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 16
SECONDS. IT WILL SUPPORT HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH
SNEAKER WAVES. IT MAY ALSO RELOCATE CRAB GEAR. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 172152
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 PM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE,
BUT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF IT.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS BUILDING UP IN MODOC AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY AND
COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, BUT THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE NOTHING HAPPENS.

THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN PUSH INLAND
TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW. AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, BUT THEY`LL TEND TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ONE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WERE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF QPF FROM THIS FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH WITH
0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AND MOST THIS WILL BE FROM NOW INTO
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE GONE BY THEN.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THAT`S IT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND AND END UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR WESTSIDE VALLEYS.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONT SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BE LATE IN THE MORNING AT THE COAST,
THEN INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS STILL WEAKER COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC AND GEM, BUT THE LATTER ARE ALSO TRENDING WEAKER COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SO WE`LL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WEAKER NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EASTER SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
-PETRUCELLI

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...FROM MONDAY MORNING ONWARD. OTHER THAN SOME
TIMING ISSUES THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING STARTS WITH A COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE POISED TO ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT COMES
ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ON THE CASCADE
CREST AND EAST SIDE WITH THE GFS INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG
AND JUST EAST. WITH THE ANTECEDENT FLOW FROM THE SOUTH NOT SETTING
IN UNTIL THAT MORNING AM NOT ADDING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT TIME
FRAME AS THERE WILL NOT BE THE USUAL DAY AHEAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
NORMALLY NEEDED TO "PRIME THE PUMP" FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS FIRST
FRONT COMES IN ON THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET THAT IS CURVED
AROUND FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY JET WELL OFFSHORE. THE CORE OF THE JET
IS AROUND 140W. SHOWERS REMAIN IN COOL ONSHORE FLOW AS THE CORE OF
THE 120KT JET APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TUESDAY..BRINGING
ANOTHER..MORE POTENT FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE FLOW THEN
BECOMES ZONAL..AND WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A PATTERN THAT IS
ALREADY DIFFICULT TO TIME FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/18Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL SPREAD TO THE CASCADES INTO THIS EVENING
WITH ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY
AND ENDS OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN PORTIONS OF MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
SVEN


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN HEAVY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SWELL...WHICH WILL BE
THE HIGHEST IMPACT EVENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
TO 16 TO 18 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 16
SECONDS. IT WILL SUPPORT HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH
SNEAKER WAVES. IT MAY ALSO RELOCATE CRAB GEAR. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ310.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 171538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR STEP THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL OFFSHORE AND NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST. THE VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN NORTHERN
CAL, MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE AND MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT THAT
WILL CHANGE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE OVERHEAD. THE MODELS
STILL HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF MODOC AND SOUTHEAST
LAKE COUNTY, SO WE`LL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL BE DECREASING WITH MOST ENDING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND ENDS OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ROGUE VALLEY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN PORTIONS OF
MODOC/LAKE COUNTIES. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SWAN AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODELS ARE
INDICATING A RAPIDLY RISING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FEET
AT 16 SECONDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT (MWSMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 130W THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE WEST SIDE RIGHT NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHICH REPRESENT THE PRECIPITATING
PORTION OF THE FRONT ARE STILL A WAYS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW RAIN
ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND DAWN AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE THROUGH NOON. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF WIND WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO HOLD OFF THE RAIN AROUND MEDFORD
FOR A WHILE. IT`S ALWAYS TRICKY TO TIME RAIN IN MEDFORD SINCE IT
DEPENDS SO MUCH ON DOWNSLOPING, BUT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN IN
MEDFORD AS THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
JUMPS THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THAT`S
WHEN WE`LL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE EAST SIDE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS SYSTEM ISN`T VERY WET AND PROBABLY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALTOGETHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT WE
SHOULD GET A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TOTAL FROM THE COOS COAST
ACROSS THE UMPQUA INTO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
ABOVE 8000 FEET AND THEN DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY OVER BY THEN, THUS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN IMPACT. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE IT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, WE`VE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS A WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH THIS FOCUSED FROM THE COOS COAST INTO THE
CASCADES, MOST OF US WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING.

DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LARGE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACNW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEST SIDE ON
MONDAY BUT THEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN MID WEEK AT WHICH POINT SNOW MAY START TO
BE A CONCERN AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT IT SOMETHING
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT




&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 171538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR STEP THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL OFFSHORE AND NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE NORTH COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST. THE VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN NORTHERN
CAL, MUCH OF THE EASTSIDE AND MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, BUT THAT
WILL CHANGE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE OVERHEAD. THE MODELS
STILL HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF MODOC AND SOUTHEAST
LAKE COUNTY, SO WE`LL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL BE DECREASING WITH MOST ENDING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND CASCADES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND ENDS OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND ROGUE VALLEY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN PORTIONS OF
MODOC/LAKE COUNTIES. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SWAN AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODELS ARE
INDICATING A RAPIDLY RISING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FEET
AT 16 SECONDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT (MWSMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 130W THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE WEST SIDE RIGHT NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHICH REPRESENT THE PRECIPITATING
PORTION OF THE FRONT ARE STILL A WAYS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW RAIN
ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND DAWN AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE THROUGH NOON. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF WIND WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO HOLD OFF THE RAIN AROUND MEDFORD
FOR A WHILE. IT`S ALWAYS TRICKY TO TIME RAIN IN MEDFORD SINCE IT
DEPENDS SO MUCH ON DOWNSLOPING, BUT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN IN
MEDFORD AS THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
JUMPS THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THAT`S
WHEN WE`LL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE EAST SIDE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS SYSTEM ISN`T VERY WET AND PROBABLY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALTOGETHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT WE
SHOULD GET A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TOTAL FROM THE COOS COAST
ACROSS THE UMPQUA INTO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
ABOVE 8000 FEET AND THEN DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY OVER BY THEN, THUS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN IMPACT. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE IT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, WE`VE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS A WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH THIS FOCUSED FROM THE COOS COAST INTO THE
CASCADES, MOST OF US WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING.

DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LARGE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACNW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEST SIDE ON
MONDAY BUT THEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN MID WEEK AT WHICH POINT SNOW MAY START TO
BE A CONCERN AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT IT SOMETHING
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT




&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 171143 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
443 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 130W THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE WEST SIDE RIGHT NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHICH REPRESENT THE PRECIPITATING
PORTION OF THE FRONT ARE STILL A WAYS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW RAIN
ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND DAWN AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE THROUGH NOON. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF WIND WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO HOLD OFF THE RAIN AROUND MEDFORD
FOR A WHILE. IT`S ALWAYS TRICKY TO TIME RAIN IN MEDFORD SINCE IT
DEPENDS SO MUCH ON DOWNSLOPING, BUT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN IN
MEDFORD AS THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
JUMPS THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THAT`S
WHEN WE`LL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE EAST SIDE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS SYSTEM ISN`T VERY WET AND PROBABLY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALTOGETHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT WE
SHOULD GET A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TOTAL FROM THE COOS COAST
ACROSS THE UMPQUA INTO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
ABOVE 8000 FEET AND THEN DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY OVER BY THEN, THUS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN IMPACT. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE IT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, WE`VE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS A WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH THIS FOCUSED FROM THE COOS COAST INTO THE
CASCADES, MOST OF US WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING.

DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LARGE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACNW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEST SIDE ON
MONDAY BUT THEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN MID WEEK AT WHICH POINT SNOW MAY START TO
BE A CONCERN AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT IT SOMETHING
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
DURING THE DAY. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED. THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND ENDS
OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN PORTIONS
OF MODOC/LAKE COUNTIES. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SWAN AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODELS ARE
INDICATING A RAPIDLY RISING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FEET
AT 16 SECONDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT (MWSMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/TRW








000
FXUS66 KMFR 171143 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
443 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 130W THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE WEST SIDE RIGHT NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHICH REPRESENT THE PRECIPITATING
PORTION OF THE FRONT ARE STILL A WAYS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW RAIN
ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND DAWN AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE THROUGH NOON. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF WIND WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO HOLD OFF THE RAIN AROUND MEDFORD
FOR A WHILE. IT`S ALWAYS TRICKY TO TIME RAIN IN MEDFORD SINCE IT
DEPENDS SO MUCH ON DOWNSLOPING, BUT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN IN
MEDFORD AS THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
JUMPS THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THAT`S
WHEN WE`LL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE EAST SIDE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS SYSTEM ISN`T VERY WET AND PROBABLY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALTOGETHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT WE
SHOULD GET A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TOTAL FROM THE COOS COAST
ACROSS THE UMPQUA INTO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
ABOVE 8000 FEET AND THEN DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY OVER BY THEN, THUS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN IMPACT. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE IT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, WE`VE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS A WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH THIS FOCUSED FROM THE COOS COAST INTO THE
CASCADES, MOST OF US WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING.

DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LARGE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACNW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEST SIDE ON
MONDAY BUT THEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN MID WEEK AT WHICH POINT SNOW MAY START TO
BE A CONCERN AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT IT SOMETHING
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT THE COAST WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
DURING THE DAY. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED. THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AND ENDS
OVERNIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR EAST SIDE IN PORTIONS
OF MODOC/LAKE COUNTIES. LOWER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SWAN AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODELS ARE
INDICATING A RAPIDLY RISING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FEET
AT 16 SECONDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT (MWSMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 171016
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
316 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 130W THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE WEST SIDE RIGHT NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHICH REPRESENT THE PRECIPITATING
PORTION OF THE FRONT ARE STILL A WAYS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW RAIN
ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND DAWN AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE THROUGH NOON. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF WIND WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO HOLD OFF THE RAIN AROUND MEDFORD
FOR A WHILE. IT`S ALWAYS TRICKY TO TIME RAIN IN MEDFORD SINCE IT
DEPENDS SO MUCH ON DOWNSLOPING, BUT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN IN
MEDFORD AS THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
JUMPS THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THAT`S
WHEN WE`LL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE EAST SIDE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS SYSTEM ISN`T VERY WET AND PROBABLY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALTOGETHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT WE
SHOULD GET A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TOTAL FROM THE COOS COAST
ACROSS THE UMPQUA INTO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
ABOVE 8000 FEET AND THEN DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY OVER BY THEN, THUS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN IMPACT. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE IT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, WE`VE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS A WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH THIS FOCUSED FROM THE COOS COAST INTO THE
CASCADES, MOST OF US WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING.

DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LARGE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACNW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEST SIDE ON
MONDAY BUT THEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN MID WEEK AT WHICH POINT SNOW MAY START TO
BE A CONCERN AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT IT SOMETHING
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST BY 10Z AND WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS RAIN
TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SWAN AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODELS ARE
INDICATING A RAPIDLY RISING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FEET
AT 16 SECONDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT (MWSMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 171016
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
316 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 130W THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE WEST SIDE RIGHT NOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM,
BUT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHICH REPRESENT THE PRECIPITATING
PORTION OF THE FRONT ARE STILL A WAYS OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOW RAIN
ARRIVING AT THE COAST AROUND DAWN AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE THROUGH NOON. THERE ISN`T A LOT OF WIND WITH THIS FRONT,
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO HOLD OFF THE RAIN AROUND MEDFORD
FOR A WHILE. IT`S ALWAYS TRICKY TO TIME RAIN IN MEDFORD SINCE IT
DEPENDS SO MUCH ON DOWNSLOPING, BUT WE`LL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN IN
MEDFORD AS THE ACTUAL FRONT PASSES AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
JUMPS THE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THAT`S
WHEN WE`LL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE EAST SIDE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS SYSTEM ISN`T VERY WET AND PROBABLY WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ALTOGETHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT WE
SHOULD GET A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH TOTAL FROM THE COOS COAST
ACROSS THE UMPQUA INTO THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
ABOVE 8000 FEET AND THEN DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY OVER BY THEN, THUS
SNOW WILL NOT BE AN IMPACT. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE IT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN, WE`VE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS A WEAK, TRANSIENT RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY, BUT WITH THIS FOCUSED FROM THE COOS COAST INTO THE
CASCADES, MOST OF US WON`T SEE MUCH IF ANYTHING.

DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LARGE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PACNW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEST SIDE ON
MONDAY BUT THEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH UNTIL
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN MID WEEK AT WHICH POINT SNOW MAY START TO
BE A CONCERN AT PASS LEVEL. THIS IS A WAYS OUT BUT IT SOMETHING
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON 17/06Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES WEST...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST BY 10Z AND WILL
SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BECOME OBSCURED. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS RAIN
TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. THESE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A HEAVY WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SWAN AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODELS ARE
INDICATING A RAPIDLY RISING HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FEET
AT 16 SECONDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT (MWSMFR) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$







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