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000
FXUS66 KMFR 290337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS WAS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN
MEDFORD WITH A HIGH OF 106 THAT TOPPED THE 105 ON JULY 1ST. BUT,
IT STILL CAME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN
2009. IN FACT, THE ONLY RECORD TODAY WAS A TIE IN MT SHASTA CITY.
IT WAS ALSO 98 DEGREES THERE ON THIS DATE IN 2009. THE DEARTH OF
RECORDS DESPITE THE HEAT INLAND IS NOT THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT ON AVERAGE THE LAST WEEK OF JULY AND FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST
ARE OUR HOTTEST TWO WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MOST NOTABLE WERE A LONG-LASTING
CELL ALONG THE NORTHEAST DOUGLAS/SOUTHEAST LANE COUNTY BORDER AND
ANOTHER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS SPARSE ACTIVITY
IS NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH SEVERAL CELLS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THAT ARE LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING VIRGA. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM
DATA HAS JUST ARRIVED. ONCE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z GFS
DATA ALSO HAS ARRIVED, WE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A DETERMINATION ON
UPGRADING OR ADJUSTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ROUGHLY FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. THE NEW NAM
DATA IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A FORECAST OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE 18Z GFS AND INCLUDES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER
AREA...STRETCHING FARTHER WEST...FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY TO THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS THEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND
AN AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD THAT WOULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THIS
PAST AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
DOUGLAS, COOS, AND CURRY COUNTY COAST AFTER 03Z AND PUSHING INTO
THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST
AS FOG DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BACK
FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON. THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO  AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB


FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 290337
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THIS WAS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN
MEDFORD WITH A HIGH OF 106 THAT TOPPED THE 105 ON JULY 1ST. BUT,
IT STILL CAME UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN
2009. IN FACT, THE ONLY RECORD TODAY WAS A TIE IN MT SHASTA CITY.
IT WAS ALSO 98 DEGREES THERE ON THIS DATE IN 2009. THE DEARTH OF
RECORDS DESPITE THE HEAT INLAND IS NOT THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING
THAT ON AVERAGE THE LAST WEEK OF JULY AND FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST
ARE OUR HOTTEST TWO WEEKS OF THE YEAR.

THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, MOST NOTABLE WERE A LONG-LASTING
CELL ALONG THE NORTHEAST DOUGLAS/SOUTHEAST LANE COUNTY BORDER AND
ANOTHER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS SPARSE ACTIVITY
IS NOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH SEVERAL CELLS EAST OF THE
CASCADES THAT ARE LIKELY ONLY PRODUCING VIRGA. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST. THE 00Z NAM
DATA HAS JUST ARRIVED. ONCE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE 00Z GFS
DATA ALSO HAS ARRIVED, WE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A DETERMINATION ON
UPGRADING OR ADJUSTING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING ROUGHLY FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. THE NEW NAM
DATA IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A FORECAST OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM MOUNT SHASTA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE 18Z GFS AND INCLUDES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGER
AREA...STRETCHING FARTHER WEST...FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
ACROSS THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY TO THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS THEN ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BOTH
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND
AN AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD THAT WOULD SUPPORT A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THIS
PAST AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/00Z TAFS...

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS IN LOW MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
DOUGLAS, COOS, AND CURRY COUNTY COAST AFTER 03Z AND PUSHING INTO
THE COQUILLE VALLEY AS WELL. AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST
AS FOG DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BACK
FROM THE COAST AROUND 19Z. INLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED CUMULUS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON. THESE STORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS AND
AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO  AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THEN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
INCREASE TO GALES WITH VERY STEEP SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WITH MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB


FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 282156
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/18Z TAFS...

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. RIGHT NOW, IT`S JUST WEST OF KOTH, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRATUS COULD MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE REMAINING OVERHEAD AFTER 0Z. THE TAF SHOWS
VFR BEING THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION PRIOR TO THEN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS
DISSIPATING BETWEEN 3-5Z. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP








000
FXUS66 KMFR 282156
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE CASCADES BEING
DENSEST FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY.THE MARBLE
MOUNTAINS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY ARE ALSO SEEING MORE CU BUILDUP.
THERE IS STILL SOME CAPPING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT COULD BE BROKEN
TOWARD THE EVENING. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME OF THESE CU TO BUILD
INTO THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO MORE THAN ONE INCH.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUEL FOR
MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FOR TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES NORTH INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY. PART OF SE JACKSON
COUNTY MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT THE ROGUE VALLEY ITSELF.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADE EAST. WHILE MODELS INDICATE LESS
DYNAMICS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA..I DONT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH
AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALBEIT ONLY AS ISOLATED COVERAGE. /FB

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NW. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOW IN LINE WITH HIGHER
850HPA TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING CAPE MENDOCINO CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PUT OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND FOR
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/18Z TAFS...

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS HUGGING ALONG THE
COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH. RIGHT NOW, IT`S JUST WEST OF KOTH, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE THE STRATUS COULD MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE REMAINING OVERHEAD AFTER 0Z. THE TAF SHOWS
VFR BEING THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION PRIOR TO THEN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS
DISSIPATING BETWEEN 3-5Z. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES FOOTHILLS
EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE CASCADE CREST...EASTSIDE AND IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STORM MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE SLOW MOVERS WITH 700 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND PAINTS OUT HIGHER QPF IN
MODOC AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SUGGEST STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND EC
SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND ARE WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SUGGEST
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THINGS DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION, THEN IT`S POSSIBLE THE WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING (IF
UPGRADED) COULD EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MODELS HINT THAT
MUCH OF THE ACTION WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH
THAT SAID, WE`LL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN MODOC BECAUSE THE DETAILS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE. THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING, LOCATION, TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVES AND AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY.

GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY,
INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>625.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281545
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER LIKE YESTERDAY,
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH 100 FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.
MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND WHERE AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TODAY IS AROUND
0.50 AT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES AN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN BE FROM CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND
LAKE JUNCTION NORTH WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING. MORE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY DEW
POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR KLAMATH FALLS.

ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A STRONGER
INSTABILITY TO NE CALIFORNIA AND THEN INTO EASTERN OREGON. THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE WET BUT ALSO GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS.

WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281545
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER LIKE YESTERDAY,
TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH 100 FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY.
MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND WHERE AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAPPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR TODAY IS AROUND
0.50 AT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES AN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN BE FROM CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND
LAKE JUNCTION NORTH WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING. MORE
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY DEW
POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S FOR KLAMATH FALLS.

ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A STRONGER
INSTABILITY TO NE CALIFORNIA AND THEN INTO EASTERN OREGON. THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE WET BUT ALSO GOOD LIGHTNING PRODUCERS.

WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 281139 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

SBN/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 281139 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
439 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER PVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/12Z TAFS...

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS FROM THE LOWER UMPQUA RIVER VALLEY NEAR REEDSPORT SOUTHWARD
TO CAPE BLANCO. EXPECT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS TO ALSO FORM ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS AND GOLD BEACH THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CLEAR AREA AROUND PORT ORFORD. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
MOST AREAS ALONG THE COAST FROM 16-18Z. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR,
THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD IN OREGON AND IN MODOC
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 28 JULY 2014...

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT
DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

SBN/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 280952
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TOT HE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE ARE OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER OVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAFS...

AREAS OF VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE INLAND THIS MORNING WHILE ALONG THE
COAST IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z,
MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH WITH ISOLATED IFR ALSO EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY COAST. THE IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLEAR BACK FROM THE COAST IN THE LATE MORNING.
COASTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH  GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN. THEN...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST  EARLY MONDAY EVENING. INLAND...EXPECT
CONTINUED VFR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING KLMT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1040 PM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN
WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BUT, WITH A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 280952
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
252 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND A
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS COOLER AIR ALOFT TO BRING INSTABILITY TO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL SEE NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUD
COVER INLAND EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ON THE FAR
EAST SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY ON THE WEST
SIDE...BUT THE 700-500 RH IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND HAVE CUT BACK
CHANCES TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA AND THE WEST SIDE. UNLIKE OTHER DAYS THAT
HAVE HAD INSTABILITY TOT HE SOUTH EARLY WHICH RESULTED IN
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE ARE OF
INSTABILITY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE LI`S IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. THE MORNING STARTS WITH
A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG
PVA...BUT INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH THE BEST CONVECTION NEEDING
SURFACE SUPPORT AND HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA. BY 00Z THE BEST PVA IS ON THE EAST
SIDE IN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY COMBINING WITH GOOD THETA-E
CONVERGENCE...AND THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER THE WEST SIDE WITH
WEAKER OVA BUT VERY GOOD 850-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE. WITH THE
WEAK SW 0-6KM FLOW STORMS MAY LATCH ONTO TERRAIN AT TIMES AND
WITH PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND 1.2 INCHES AM THINKING THERE WILL BE
A HIT OR MISS CELL OR THREE THAT MAY BE VERY GOOD RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WOBBLING UP THE WEST SIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF CELLS ON THE EAST SIDE
AND IN THE CASCADES. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHUNTING THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/06Z TAFS...

AREAS OF VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE INLAND THIS MORNING WHILE ALONG THE
COAST IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16-18Z,
MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH WITH ISOLATED IFR ALSO EXPECTED TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY COAST. THE IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND CLEAR BACK FROM THE COAST IN THE LATE MORNING.
COASTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH  GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AGAIN. THEN...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST  EARLY MONDAY EVENING. INLAND...EXPECT
CONTINUED VFR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING KLMT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1040 PM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN
WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BUT, WITH A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 280347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HEATING DOWN A
BIT AND HAS LIMITED ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BUT DID
NOT GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH SUNSET AND DECREASED HEATING AS WELL AS NO STRONG
SHORTWAVES, DO NOT EXPECT AN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. SO HAVE TAKEN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY, MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD IN OREGON AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE. GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TRIGGER AND LIMITED MOISTURE, EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MONDAY MAY
BE DRY. THEN ON TUESDAY, INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN OREGON. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES LOOKS TO BE MORE
LIMITED IN OREGON ON TUESDAY GIVEN A SOUTH TO SSW STEERING FLOW
SHOWN IN THE NAM FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SSE FLOW AND SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS OF THE WEST SIDE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE DETAILS OF THIS SCENARIO WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/00Z TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH AREAS
OF HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT, THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WHILE COASTAL IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. ALSO, LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS THAT
ARE STRONG NEAR THE COAST (INCLUDING GUSTS TO 30 KT REPORTED AT
KOTH THIS AFTERNOON) WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

THE COASTAL IFR WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 16Z MONDAY MORNING BUT COASTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING
KLMT. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN
WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BUT, WITH A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
/DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH INTO SW OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCE THIS WOULD CAUSE THE AIR
MASS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE BUT THERE WERE JUST TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH COMING UP
INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING AREA COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MARBLE
MTNS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. HOWEVER
LACK OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE SIGNATURE WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM GENERATING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE SIGNATURE MOVING INTO NE CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO HIGHER ON TUESDAY SO THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH CAPE TO
GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DYNAMICS AND OTHER LIGHTNING
FORECAST CHARTS POINT TO THE CASCADES MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS AREAS LIKELY TO SEE MOST LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TOTAL COVERAGE AREA ON TUESDAY
INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, SISKIYOU, MODOC AND PARTS OF
JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.

LONG TERM...WE ARE LOCKED INTO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TREND HAS
NOT CHANGED. WE WILL SEE THREATS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL NEXT WEEK
AND TIMING OF EACH STORM WILL HAVE TO BE DONE ON A SHORT TERM
NOTICE. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED COVERAGE AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO ENHANCE THE TRIGGER. HOWEVER FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THINGS COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESES STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING BUT ALSO MORE
RAIN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL COULD APPROACH 3 OR 4 AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 280347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HEATING DOWN A
BIT AND HAS LIMITED ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BUT DID
NOT GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. WITH SUNSET AND DECREASED HEATING AS WELL AS NO STRONG
SHORTWAVES, DO NOT EXPECT AN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. SO HAVE TAKEN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY, MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD IN OREGON AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE. GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TRIGGER AND LIMITED MOISTURE, EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MONDAY MAY
BE DRY. THEN ON TUESDAY, INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY MOVING WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN OREGON. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES LOOKS TO BE MORE
LIMITED IN OREGON ON TUESDAY GIVEN A SOUTH TO SSW STEERING FLOW
SHOWN IN THE NAM FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SSE FLOW AND SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS OF THE WEST SIDE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE DETAILS OF THIS SCENARIO WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/00Z TAFS...

VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH AREAS
OF HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT, THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WHILE COASTAL IFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. ALSO, LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS THAT
ARE STRONG NEAR THE COAST (INCLUDING GUSTS TO 30 KT REPORTED AT
KOTH THIS AFTERNOON) WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

THE COASTAL IFR WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 16Z MONDAY MORNING BUT COASTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FROM SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON...INCLUDING
KLMT. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN
WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BUT, WITH A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
/DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH INTO SW OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCE THIS WOULD CAUSE THE AIR
MASS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE BUT THERE WERE JUST TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH COMING UP
INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING AREA COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MARBLE
MTNS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. HOWEVER
LACK OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE SIGNATURE WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM GENERATING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE SIGNATURE MOVING INTO NE CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO HIGHER ON TUESDAY SO THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH CAPE TO
GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DYNAMICS AND OTHER LIGHTNING
FORECAST CHARTS POINT TO THE CASCADES MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS AREAS LIKELY TO SEE MOST LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TOTAL COVERAGE AREA ON TUESDAY
INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, SISKIYOU, MODOC AND PARTS OF
JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.

LONG TERM...WE ARE LOCKED INTO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TREND HAS
NOT CHANGED. WE WILL SEE THREATS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL NEXT WEEK
AND TIMING OF EACH STORM WILL HAVE TO BE DONE ON A SHORT TERM
NOTICE. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED COVERAGE AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO ENHANCE THE TRIGGER. HOWEVER FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THINGS COULD BE QUITE ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESES STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE LIGHTNING BUT ALSO MORE
RAIN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL COULD APPROACH 3 OR 4 AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 272159 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION.

.SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH INTO SW OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCE THIS WOULD CAUSE THE AIR
MASS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE BUT THERE WERE JUST TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH COMING UP
INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING AREA COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MARBLE
MTNS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. HOWEVER
LACK OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE SIGNATURE WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM GENERATING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE SIGNATURE MOVING INTO NE CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO HIGHER ON TUESDAY SO THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH CAPE TO
GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DYNAMICS AND OTHER LIGHTNING
FORECAST CHARTS POINT TO THE CASCADES MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS AREAS LIKELY TO SEE MOST LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TOTAL COVERAGE AREA ON TUESDAY
INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, SISKIYOU, MODOC AND PARTS OF
JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.

.LONG TERM...WE ARE LOCKED INTO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TREND HAS
NOT CHANGED. WE WILL SEE THREATS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL NEXT WEEK
AND TIMING OF EACH STORM WILL HAVE TO BE DONE ON A SHORT TERM
NOTICE. /FB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME CLEARING AREA COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING OVER THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE CASCADES.
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
COVERAGE AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO ENHANCE
THE TRIGGER. HOWEVER FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THINGS COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESES STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE
LIGHTNING BUT ALSO MORE RAIN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL COULD
APPROACH 3 OR 4 AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.
/FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTH COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MARINE STRATUS WILL RE DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS
AND VIS AROUND 6Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN
WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BUT, WITH A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP










000
FXUS66 KMFR 272159 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION.

.SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH INTO SW OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCE THIS WOULD CAUSE THE AIR
MASS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE BUT THERE WERE JUST TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH COMING UP
INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING AREA COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MARBLE
MTNS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. HOWEVER
LACK OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE SIGNATURE WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM GENERATING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE SIGNATURE MOVING INTO NE CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO HIGHER ON TUESDAY SO THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH CAPE TO
GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DYNAMICS AND OTHER LIGHTNING
FORECAST CHARTS POINT TO THE CASCADES MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS AREAS LIKELY TO SEE MOST LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TOTAL COVERAGE AREA ON TUESDAY
INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, SISKIYOU, MODOC AND PARTS OF
JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.

.LONG TERM...WE ARE LOCKED INTO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TREND HAS
NOT CHANGED. WE WILL SEE THREATS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL NEXT WEEK
AND TIMING OF EACH STORM WILL HAVE TO BE DONE ON A SHORT TERM
NOTICE. /FB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME CLEARING AREA COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING OVER THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE CASCADES.
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
COVERAGE AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO ENHANCE
THE TRIGGER. HOWEVER FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THINGS COULD BE QUITE
ACTIVE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESES STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE
LIGHTNING BUT ALSO MORE RAIN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL COULD
APPROACH 3 OR 4 AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES.
/FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTH COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MARINE STRATUS WILL RE DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS
AND VIS AROUND 6Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CURRENT PATTERN
WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BUT, WITH A VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP









000
FXUS66 KMFR 272151
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH INTO SW OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCE THIS WOULD CAUSE THE AIR
MASS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE BUT THERE WERE JUST TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH COMING UP
INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING AREA COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MARBLE
MTNS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. HOWEVER
LACK OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE SIGNATURE WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM GENERATING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE SIGNATURE MOVING INTO NE CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO HIGHER ON TUESDAY SO THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH CAPE TO
GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DYNAMICS AND OTHER LIGHTNING
FORECAST CHARTS POINT TO THE CASCADES MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS AREAS LIKELY TO SEE MOST LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TOTAL COVERAGE AREA ON TUESDAY
INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, SISKIYOU, MODOC AND PARTS OF
JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.

.LONG TERM...WE ARE LOCKED INTO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TREND HAS
NOT CHANGED. WE WILL SEE THREATS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL NEXT WEEK
AND TIMING OF EACH STORM WILL HAVE TO BE DONE ON A SHORT TERM
NOTICE. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTH COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MARINE STRATUS WILL RE DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS
AND VIS AROUND 6Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP








000
FXUS66 KMFR 272151
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH INTO SW OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCE THIS WOULD CAUSE THE AIR
MASS TO BE VERY UNSTABLE BUT THERE WERE JUST TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH COMING UP
INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CLEARING AREA COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MARBLE
MTNS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE TO
OUR FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SO ANY STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. HOWEVER
LACK OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE SIGNATURE WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS
FROM GENERATING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE SIGNATURE MOVING INTO NE CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO HIGHER ON TUESDAY SO THERE IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH CAPE TO
GENERATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DYNAMICS AND OTHER LIGHTNING
FORECAST CHARTS POINT TO THE CASCADES MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO
KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES AS AREAS LIKELY TO SEE MOST LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH TOTAL COVERAGE AREA ON TUESDAY
INCLUDE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, SISKIYOU, MODOC AND PARTS OF
JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.

.LONG TERM...WE ARE LOCKED INTO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. DID NOT MAKE
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TREND HAS
NOT CHANGED. WE WILL SEE THREATS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL NEXT WEEK
AND TIMING OF EACH STORM WILL HAVE TO BE DONE ON A SHORT TERM
NOTICE. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTH COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MARINE STRATUS WILL RE DEVELOP WITH IFR CIGS
AND VIS AROUND 6Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 271605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO JACKSON AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURE
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM REACHING 100. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY
IS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING US. SO FAR MOISTURE IS STILL VERY HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE
EXPECTED TO BE AT 15000 FT OR HIGHER WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IF ANY
LIGHTNING DEVELOPS. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 449 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP








000
FXUS66 KMFR 271605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO JACKSON AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURE
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM REACHING 100. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY
IS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING US. SO FAR MOISTURE IS STILL VERY HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE
EXPECTED TO BE AT 15000 FT OR HIGHER WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IF ANY
LIGHTNING DEVELOPS. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 449 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 271605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO JACKSON AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURE
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM REACHING 100. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY
IS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING US. SO FAR MOISTURE IS STILL VERY HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE
EXPECTED TO BE AT 15000 FT OR HIGHER WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IF ANY
LIGHTNING DEVELOPS. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 449 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP








000
FXUS66 KMFR 271605
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH INTO JACKSON AND KLAMATH
COUNTIES WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURE
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY FROM REACHING 100. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY
IS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING US. SO FAR MOISTURE IS STILL VERY HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE
EXPECTED TO BE AT 15000 FT OR HIGHER WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IF ANY
LIGHTNING DEVELOPS. EXPECT MORE COVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE MOST ACTIVE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 449 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 271149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
449 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 449 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

RES/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 271149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
449 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS
CIRCULATION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAFS...

IFR CIGS/FOG ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST NEAR KOTH, BUT HAVE NOT QUITE
MADE IT OVER THE AIRFIELD JUST YET. AS SUCH...I HAVE PREVAILED VFR
TODAY, BUT INTRODUCED A TEMPORARY LIFR/IFR CIG/FOG GROUP FROM 12-15Z
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WE`RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY, RAINFALL. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 449 AM PDT 27 JULY 2014...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, EXPECT A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT WIND EVENT THERE WITH LOWER
END SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STEEP TO VERY STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO. THE THERMAL TROUGH CAUSING THE
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT, BUT THEN MAY RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

RES/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 270853
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
153 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS CIRCULATION WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THEN ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BUT THEN EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. CURRENT LAMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KOTH BETWEEN 8-11Z. HAVE KEPT
TOWARDS THE 11Z TIME FRAME FOR THE IFR CIGS IN THE KOTH TAF, SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BETWEEN 15-16Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR ALONG THE COAST AND WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WITH
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BUT STILL KEEP WINDS NEAR GALES WITH 30-35 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT VERY STEEP
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL RESTRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...WINDS MAY DECREASE TO BELOW GALES ON
TUESDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 270853
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
153 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS A DECENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS CIRCULATION WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TODAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CIRCULATION IS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON.

INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE IS GREATLY LACKING WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15,000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON SO IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THEN ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE DRY. OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS
0.70 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAN AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY INCREASES A
TAD WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE DRY IF THEY DO DEVELOP. HAVE
TAKEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND CASCADES EAST. AS
EXPECTED THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT.

THE SITUATION CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH. THESE STORMS WOULD BE WET AND
COULD MOVE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. SOME AREAS EAST OF
THE CASCADES MAY NEED POPS TO BE BUMPED UP INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKDAYS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AMPLE CAPE AND
LITTLE CAP IN THE MOUNTAINS SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS...HOT TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
FORESTS COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. WE ARE NEARING THE PEAK
OF THE WILDFIRE SEASON.
SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BUT THEN EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. CURRENT LAMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KOTH BETWEEN 8-11Z. HAVE KEPT
TOWARDS THE 11Z TIME FRAME FOR THE IFR CIGS IN THE KOTH TAF, SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY MORNING.  EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BETWEEN 15-16Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR ALONG THE COAST AND WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WITH
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
BUT STILL KEEP WINDS NEAR GALES WITH 30-35 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT VERY STEEP
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL RESTRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...WINDS MAY DECREASE TO BELOW GALES ON
TUESDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 270403
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
903 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. THE 00Z
NAM DATA HAS ARRIVED, AND THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DATA IS EAGERLY
AWAITED TO LOOK FOR CONSISTENCY IN THE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-
MODEL COMPARISONS. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INLAND DURING
THE NEXT WEEK.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS
INTO MID-WEEK. IN FACT, AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS FEW RUNS REGARDING THE
CONVECTIVE SITUATION ON SUNDAY. LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED BUT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FROM AROUND CRATER LAKE INTO
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND DESCHUTES COUNTY.

THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY, SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE CASCADES.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION IN THE
NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE NAM
CONTINUING A FOCUS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BUT THEN EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. CURRENT LAMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KOTH BETWEEN 8-11Z. HAVE KEPT
TOWARDS THE 11Z TIME FRAME FOR THE IFR CIGS IN THE KOTH TAF, SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST MORNING.  EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BETWEEN 15-16Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR ALONG THE COAST AND WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 PM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH WINDS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY BUT STILL KEEP WINDS NEAR GALES WITH 30-35 MPH WINDS AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT VERY
STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL RESTRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...WINDS MAY DECREASE TO BELOW GALES ON
TUESDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ROCKIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN THE RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN HOT WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL
ALSO ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SURGE IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE A
RATHER VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER TIME. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL SEE INCREASING THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY IF/WHEN ANY STRONG SHORTWAVES APPEAR IN THIS FLOW.

THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W OFF THE
BAY AREA RIGHT NOW, AND MODELS SHOW THIS MOVING THROUGH HERE
TOMORROW. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST LATER TOMORROW, SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WILL NOT QUITE BE HERE YET, SO AM NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THE PROBLEM IS: GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT DRY STORMS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE MONDAY, BUT WE LACK A STRONG
TRIGGER, THUS THE POTENTIAL LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. STORMS MAY
STILL BE DRY MONDAY, BUT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING, WETNESS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER AND THE MODELS DO HINT AT A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH.

THE MODELS HINT AT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THEY ARE EVEN INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS POSSIBILITY BUT
DIFFER QUITE A LOT IN THE DETAILS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SCENARIO
COULD BE VERY PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER FLOW THEN BACKS TO MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
SIDE. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY JUICY DURING THIS
PERIOD, SO THE STORMS COULD BE BIG AND WET WITH PROLIFIC
LIGHTNING. AS MENTIONED, THE DETAILS ARE NOT KNOWN, BUT THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 270403
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
903 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. THE 00Z
NAM DATA HAS ARRIVED, AND THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DATA IS EAGERLY
AWAITED TO LOOK FOR CONSISTENCY IN THE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-
MODEL COMPARISONS. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INLAND DURING
THE NEXT WEEK.

INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS
INTO MID-WEEK. IN FACT, AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 00Z NAM IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS FEW RUNS REGARDING THE
CONVECTIVE SITUATION ON SUNDAY. LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED BUT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FROM AROUND CRATER LAKE INTO
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND DESCHUTES COUNTY.

THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY, SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE CASCADES.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION IN THE
NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE NAM
CONTINUING A FOCUS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BUT THEN EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY. CURRENT LAMP
GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KOTH BETWEEN 8-11Z. HAVE KEPT
TOWARDS THE 11Z TIME FRAME FOR THE IFR CIGS IN THE KOTH TAF, SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST MORNING.  EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BETWEEN 15-16Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR ALONG THE COAST AND WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 PM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH WINDS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY BUT STILL KEEP WINDS NEAR GALES WITH 30-35 MPH WINDS AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. GALES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT VERY
STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE INNER WATERS AT
TIMES.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL RESTRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...WINDS MAY DECREASE TO BELOW GALES ON
TUESDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ROCKIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN THE RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN HOT WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL
ALSO ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SURGE IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE A
RATHER VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER TIME. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL SEE INCREASING THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY IF/WHEN ANY STRONG SHORTWAVES APPEAR IN THIS FLOW.

THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W OFF THE
BAY AREA RIGHT NOW, AND MODELS SHOW THIS MOVING THROUGH HERE
TOMORROW. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST LATER TOMORROW, SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WILL NOT QUITE BE HERE YET, SO AM NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THE PROBLEM IS: GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT DRY STORMS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE MONDAY, BUT WE LACK A STRONG
TRIGGER, THUS THE POTENTIAL LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. STORMS MAY
STILL BE DRY MONDAY, BUT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING, WETNESS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER AND THE MODELS DO HINT AT A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH.

THE MODELS HINT AT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THEY ARE EVEN INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS POSSIBILITY BUT
DIFFER QUITE A LOT IN THE DETAILS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SCENARIO
COULD BE VERY PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER FLOW THEN BACKS TO MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
SIDE. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY JUICY DURING THIS
PERIOD, SO THE STORMS COULD BE BIG AND WET WITH PROLIFIC
LIGHTNING. AS MENTIONED, THE DETAILS ARE NOT KNOWN, BUT THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 262149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
249 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ROCKIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN THE RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN HOT WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL
ALSO ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SURGE IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE A
RATHER VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER TIME. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL SEE INCREASING THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY IF/WHEN ANY STRONG SHORTWAVES APPEAR IN THIS FLOW.

THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W OFF THE
BAY AREA RIGHT NOW, AND MODELS SHOW THIS MOVING THROUGH HERE
TOMORROW. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST LATER TOMORROW, SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WILL NOT QUITE BE HERE YET, SO AM NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THE PROBLEM IS: GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT DRY STORMS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE MONDAY, BUT WE LACK A STRONG
TRIGGER, THUS THE POTENTIAL LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. STORMS MAY
STILL BE DRY MONDAY, BUT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING, WETNESS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER AND THE MODELS DO HINT AT A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH.

THE MODELS HINT AT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THEY ARE EVEN INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS POSSIBILITY BUT
DIFFER QUITE A LOT IN THE DETAILS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SCENARIO
COULD BE VERY PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER FLOW THEN BACKS TO MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
SIDE. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY JUICY DURING THIS
PERIOD, SO THE STORMS COULD BE BIG AND WET WITH PROLIFIC
LIGHTNING. AS MENTIONED, THE DETAILS ARE NOT KNOWN, BUT THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. CURRENT LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KOTH
BETWEEN 8-9Z, BUT HAS TRENDED LATER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THEREFORE
LEFT THE TAF AS IS WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z. MARINE
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE BASIN LATE TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE UMPQUA. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 262149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
249 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN ROCKIES IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THEN THE RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN HOT WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL
ALSO ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SURGE IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE RESULTING INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE A
RATHER VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OVER TIME. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL SEE INCREASING THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY IF/WHEN ANY STRONG SHORTWAVES APPEAR IN THIS FLOW.

THERE IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG 130W OFF THE
BAY AREA RIGHT NOW, AND MODELS SHOW THIS MOVING THROUGH HERE
TOMORROW. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM THE CASCADES EAST LATER TOMORROW, SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WILL NOT QUITE BE HERE YET, SO AM NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THE PROBLEM IS: GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT DRY STORMS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE MONDAY, BUT WE LACK A STRONG
TRIGGER, THUS THE POTENTIAL LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. STORMS MAY
STILL BE DRY MONDAY, BUT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING, WETNESS SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE. TUESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE FURTHER AND THE MODELS DO HINT AT A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH.

THE MODELS HINT AT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THEY ARE EVEN INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
CLOSING OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS POSSIBILITY BUT
DIFFER QUITE A LOT IN THE DETAILS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SCENARIO
COULD BE VERY PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER FLOW THEN BACKS TO MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
SIDE. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY JUICY DURING THIS
PERIOD, SO THE STORMS COULD BE BIG AND WET WITH PROLIFIC
LIGHTNING. AS MENTIONED, THE DETAILS ARE NOT KNOWN, BUT THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. CURRENT LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KOTH
BETWEEN 8-9Z, BUT HAS TRENDED LATER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THEREFORE
LEFT THE TAF AS IS WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND 10Z. MARINE
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE BASIN LATE TONIGHT,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE UMPQUA. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 261538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE STRATUS
OVER WESTERN UMPQUA AND COOS COUNTIES, SKIES ARE CRYSTAL CLEAR
THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS (BOTH ACTUAL AND MODEL) INDICATE THE
AIRMASS IS WAY TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY, DESPITE SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP
STARTING AT AROUND 750 MILLIBARS WHICH IS BELOW THE LCL AND THUS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE EVEN CUMULUS FORMATION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE OVER THE CASCADES AROUND CRATER LAKE WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS COME CLOSEST TO BREAKING THE CAP, THUS SOME CUMULUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB TODAY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (96F
FOR A HIGH TODAY IN MEDFORD, FOR EXAMPLE).

THINGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE VOLATILE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL THUS BE TRYING TO NARROW DOWN WHICH
DAYS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAFS...

EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT AND NASA SPORT
MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY INDICATING PATCHY FOG AND
LIFR STRATUS FORMING FROM THE COQUILLE BASIN NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LIFR IN THE KOTH TAF FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. SUSPECT THE FOG AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY
ERODE 14-15Z AS THE SUN RISES. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THE CHALLENGE IS IF AND WHERE
STRATUS WILL FORM THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS BEGAN FORMING BY 09Z. THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SIMILAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN. THE MODELS PREDICT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
RH THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS CONFINED
TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
ABOUT WHETHER STRATUS WILL FORM FARTHER INLAND.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THERE ARE ONLY
SLOW CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS OCCURRING THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWEST. THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS UNSTABLE INLAND FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS IN LATE JULY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST CAN BE REFINED
ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS AS SATELLITE AND MODELS PINPOINT THE
DISTURBANCES.

THE ADVERTISED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
TO AROUND 100 FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEDFORD WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE ALL-TIME WARMEST JULY MONTHLY RECORD THAT WAS SET JUST
LAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY JULY TEMPERATURE (HIGHS AND LOWS
AVERAGED) COULD END UP CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN MEDFORD. THIS DOES
NOT SEEM SO BAD WHEN YOU CONSIDER THAT PHOENIX, ARIZONA IS
AVERAGING 96 DEGREES SO FAR THIS MONTH. SANDLER

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 261137 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THE CHALLENGE IS IF AND WHERE
STRATUS WILL FORM THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS BEGAN FORMING BY 09Z. THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SIMILAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN. THE MODELS PREDICT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
RH THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS CONFINED
TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
ABOUT WHETHER STRATUS WILL FORM FARTHER INLAND.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THERE ARE ONLY
SLOW CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS OCCURRING THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWEST. THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS UNSTABLE INLAND FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS IN LATE JULY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST CAN BE REFINED
ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS AS SATELLITE AND MODELS PINPOINT THE
DISTURBANCES.

THE ADVERTISED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
TO AROUND 100 FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEDFORD WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE ALL-TIME WARMEST JULY MONTHLY RECORD THAT WAS SET JUST
LAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY JULY TEMPERATURE (HIGHS AND LOWS
AVERAGED) COULD END UP CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN MEDFORD. THIS DOES
NOT SEEM SO BAD WHEN YOU CONSIDER THAT PHOENIX, ARIZONA IS
AVERAGING 96 DEGREES SO FAR THIS MONTH. SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAFS...EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT AND NASA SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY INDICATING PATCHY FOG AND LIFR STRATUS
FORMING FROM THE COQUILLE BASIN NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. FOR THIS
REASON, HAVE LIFR IN THE KOTH TAF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUSPECT THE FOG AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY ERODE 14-15Z AS THE
SUN RISES. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

RES/MAS







000
FXUS66 KMFR 261137 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
437 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THE CHALLENGE IS IF AND WHERE
STRATUS WILL FORM THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS BEGAN FORMING BY 09Z. THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SIMILAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN. THE MODELS PREDICT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
RH THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS CONFINED
TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
ABOUT WHETHER STRATUS WILL FORM FARTHER INLAND.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THERE ARE ONLY
SLOW CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS OCCURRING THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWEST. THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS UNSTABLE INLAND FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS IN LATE JULY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST CAN BE REFINED
ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS AS SATELLITE AND MODELS PINPOINT THE
DISTURBANCES.

THE ADVERTISED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
TO AROUND 100 FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEDFORD WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE ALL-TIME WARMEST JULY MONTHLY RECORD THAT WAS SET JUST
LAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY JULY TEMPERATURE (HIGHS AND LOWS
AVERAGED) COULD END UP CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN MEDFORD. THIS DOES
NOT SEEM SO BAD WHEN YOU CONSIDER THAT PHOENIX, ARIZONA IS
AVERAGING 96 DEGREES SO FAR THIS MONTH. SANDLER

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAFS...EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 FOG
SATELLITE PRODUCT AND NASA SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY INDICATING PATCHY FOG AND LIFR STRATUS
FORMING FROM THE COQUILLE BASIN NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. FOR THIS
REASON, HAVE LIFR IN THE KOTH TAF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUSPECT THE FOG AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY ERODE 14-15Z AS THE
SUN RISES. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 430 AM PDT 26 JULY 2014...

A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO,
BUT MAY NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

RES/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 260847
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
147 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THE CHALLENGE IS IF AND WHERE
STRATUS WILL FORM THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS BEGAN FORMING BY 09Z. THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SIMILAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN. THE MODELS PREDICT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
RH THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS CONFINED
TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
ABOUT WHETHER STRATUS WILL FORM FARTHER INLAND.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THERE ARE ONLY
SLOW CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS OCCURRING THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWEST. THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS UNSTABLE INLAND FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS IN LATE JULY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST CAN BE REFINED
ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS AS SATELLITE AND MODELS PINPOINT THE
DISTURBANCES.

THE ADVERTISED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
TO AROUND 100 FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEDFORD WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE ALL-TIME WARMEST JULY MONTHLY RECORD THAT WAS SET JUST
LAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY JULY TEMPERATURE (HIGHS AND LOWS AVERAGED)
COULD END UP CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN MEDFORD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM SO BAD
WHEN YOU CONSIDER THAT PHOENIX, ARIZONA IS AVERAGING 96 DEGREES
SO FAR THIS MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAFS...

GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS FROM AFFECTING TERMINALS
THERE. INLAND, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAW MODEL OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE THAT CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
WEST OF ROSEBURG...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ROSEBURG TAF.
PERHAPS LOCAL MVFR CIGS COULD FORM WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD ALSO CLEAR BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
SK


&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

RES/RES/NSK







000
FXUS66 KMFR 260847
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
147 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE VERY SHORT TERM THE CHALLENGE IS IF AND WHERE
STRATUS WILL FORM THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS BEGAN FORMING BY 09Z. THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE SIMILAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AGAIN. THE MODELS PREDICT HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
RH THIS MORNING. DESPITE THIS, WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS CONFINED
TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW
ABOUT WHETHER STRATUS WILL FORM FARTHER INLAND.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THERE ARE ONLY
SLOW CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS OCCURRING THIS WEEK. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWEST. THE MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINS UNSTABLE INLAND FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS IN LATE JULY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST CAN BE REFINED
ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS AS SATELLITE AND MODELS PINPOINT THE
DISTURBANCES.

THE ADVERTISED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
TO AROUND 100 FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEDFORD WILL LIKELY
BREAK THE ALL-TIME WARMEST JULY MONTHLY RECORD THAT WAS SET JUST
LAST YEAR. THE AVERAGE MONTHLY JULY TEMPERATURE (HIGHS AND LOWS AVERAGED)
COULD END UP CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES IN MEDFORD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM SO BAD
WHEN YOU CONSIDER THAT PHOENIX, ARIZONA IS AVERAGING 96 DEGREES
SO FAR THIS MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAFS...

GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AFTER 8Z
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MARINE STRATUS FROM AFFECTING TERMINALS
THERE. INLAND, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAW MODEL OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE THAT CEILINGS SHOULD STAY
WEST OF ROSEBURG...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ROSEBURG TAF.
PERHAPS LOCAL MVFR CIGS COULD FORM WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS AT COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD ALSO CLEAR BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
SK


&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

RES/RES/NSK








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