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000
FXUS66 KMFR 010348
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE COOS BASIN AT THIS TIME WITH THE NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING
DOWN FROM THE WA/NORTHERN OR COAST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
AND WILL NOT UPDATE AT THIS TIME. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED MUCH
OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SYNOPTIC
MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL AND DRY
CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 010115
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN WHERE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
VFR ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE COAST
RANGE AND UMPQUA DIVIDE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND SPILL INTO THE UMPQUA TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 312146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN EARLY FALL-LIKE DAY HERE IN THE
MEDFORD FORECAST AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES
STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO JUST A WEEK AGO, WHEN SMOKE COVERED
MUCH OF THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED BY MORE SEASONAL
AND DRY CONDITIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SEPTEMBER.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TOWARDS, BUT NOT QUITE TO, MORE SEASONAL
VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ONSHORE
FLOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS WILL HELP GIVE THE
MARINE LAYER A PUSH INLAND. EXPECT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND UMPQUA BASIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WHERE THE TERRAIN PROVIDES FOR MORE VERTICAL
MOTION. THE COOLER AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD ALSO BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF FROST TO THE CHEMULT, CRESCENT, AND BEATTY AREAS, BUT WE
ARE WELL PAST THE AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, SO NO HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED.

A SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PARENT TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS COULD BRING SHOWERS TOT HE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH, SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST IN TURN, BRINGING THE BULK OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY
MAKE IT TO THE EAST SIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS IT
CIRCULATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, BUT IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE
EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, AND AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF SUMMER, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES AND THE EAST
SIDE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN DRY AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN, THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS LIE IN WAIT UPSTREAM IN
THE WESTERLIES, AND THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
MOVE INTO THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND SPILL INTO THE UMPQUA TOWARD
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY, AUGUST 31ST, 2015... TODAY INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MODERATE SEAS DOMINATED
BY WEST SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, LIKELY AROUND 9 FEET AT A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST SWELL. NORTH
WIND AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS THIS
WEEKEND. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS NORTH WIND INCREASE. AT THIS POINT, WHILE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME, THEY ARE MORE LIKELY ON SUNDAY. GALES HAVE BEEN
INDICATED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 311547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CALM WEATHER IN THE AREA, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS
MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE AND SEAS DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS. -BPN/CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02





000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02





000
FXUS66 KMFR 311220
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS IN STRATUS
WILL RETURN TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LOCAL MFR/IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 31 AUGUST 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. TODAY
INTO TUESDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SEAS
DOMINATED BY A WESTERLY SWELL.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  SEAS MAY
BECOME STEEP WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST SWELL
INCREASES OVER THE WATERS.   EXPECT CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS OVER THE WATERS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310801
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
101 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE... CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FROM THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHWARD. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR IN ISOLATED AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING
MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE....WITH STRATUS
RETURNING TO THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1050 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...LONGER PERIOD
SWELL HAS BECOME DOMINANT IN THE WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK
INCREASING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02





000
FXUS66 KMFR 310801
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
101 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...31/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW MOVED OUT TO THE
EAST...AND WEAK TO MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST...MOSTLY OVER THE
CASCADES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HOWEVER...THE MEDFORD CWA WILL CATCH THE WEAK SOUTHERN END OF
SYSTEMS MOVING ONSHORE. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
AND IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
COAST...COAST RANGE...AND UMPQUA BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY OVER THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IT WILL BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND FROM
THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. UPPER KLAMATH COUNTY MAY
GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN TOO. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AROUND TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH. THE 31/00Z GFS FINALLY MOVES IT OUT
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE 30/12Z EC IS ABOUT 12 TO 18
HOURS SLOWER. EITHER WAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE COOL
WITH INLAND HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS
MOSTLY DRY DURING THIS INTERVAL. THE WETTER EC LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER FORECAST DURING THIS STRETCH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...SO WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY
NEED TO BE UPPED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS MURKIER. IT MAY BE COOL AND SHOWERY
WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH TO THE
EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/06Z TAF CYCLE... CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST
EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FROM THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHWARD. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR IN ISOLATED AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING
MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE....WITH STRATUS
RETURNING TO THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1050 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...LONGER PERIOD
SWELL HAS BECOME DOMINANT IN THE WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK
INCREASING NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310357
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUMULUS
FLATTENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED INLAND AS WELL. WITH A COOL AIR
MASS BEHIND THE EXITING WEAK SYSTEM HIGHER VALLEYS IN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE COULD SEE ISOLATED FROST BY THE MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS
WELL, BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE
REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310010
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
510 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WEST SIDE RAINS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL, BUT HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR HAVE REMAINED
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST EASTWARD INTO THE CASCADES WILL
CONTINUE PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN MANY
AREAS. VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS DURING MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 250 PM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...STEEP SHORT
PERIOD SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DISSIPATE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AFTER CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING NORTH
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/SBN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL,
BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
224 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
WEST SIDE RAINS TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY AS WELL,
BUT HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE CASCADES AND POINTS WEST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BUT BY TONIGHT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES TODAY SO FAR
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE VERY WARM SUMMER LEADING UP TO NOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND
ALTHOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.
TUESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, AND THIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SCATTERING AND SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
SIDE.

MODELS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AND THE RETURN OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY AND TOWARDS
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER LIKELY ARRIVING IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301858
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1158 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 301858
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1158 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, A WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY, SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE WEST SIDE AND
THE CASCADES. HOWEVER, THE EAST SIDE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AS THE MOISTURE SHOULDN`T QUITE MAKE IT ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
AUGUST TODAY. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THIS MORNING TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
UPDATED MODEL TIMING, BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/CC/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 301311 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
610 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES
THROUGH THE MORNING. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN.  ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN
CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TONIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INLAND. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A  COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE RIDGES, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  THEN THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN, MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST, COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALSO OFFSHORE
FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES BY SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES NEXT WEEKEND. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300815 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300815 RRA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
115 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND BRING
SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. SHORT PERIOD STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL TO BECOME DOMINANT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT AND MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 AM PDT SUNDAY 30 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
109 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1010 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
109 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1010 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
109 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...30/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL...THE MEDFORD
CWA WILL CATCH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE WILL GET THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION...A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH...FROM NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER
UMPQUA AND CASCADES WILL PICK UP SOME LIGHTER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NUMBER OF STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT RECORDED WAS 0.37 INCHES AT
QUAIL PRAIRIE.

THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THAT TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL TAKE ANY STRAGGLING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. SUNDAY WILL BE COOL WITH INLAND HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL

THE MEDFORD CWA WILL COME UNDER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE
DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...BUT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IT WILL
BE WEAK. THE NORTH COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN GET MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AROUND TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRY TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL FORCE IT TO DIG AND RETROGRADE. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL
LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE COOL AND
SHOWERY WITH A TROUGH OVERHEAD...OR COOL AND DRY WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS
INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CASCADES TO THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1010 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
        PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/02





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONTO THE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CYCLES THROUGH THE REGION.
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY WASHING OUT ON THE WEST SIDE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/ THE
SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE... MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND
COAST RANGE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BTL

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300120
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
620 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED MARINE, AVIATION, AND HEADLINE SECTIONS

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COAST RANGE. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT,
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300120
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
620 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED MARINE, AVIATION, AND HEADLINE SECTIONS

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND EASTWARD INTO VALLEY AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES WITH NEAR TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COAST RANGE. SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 615 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... ADVISORY
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH 2 AM
PDT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT,
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST
2015...GENERAL BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-370.

$$

BTL/BPN/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 292132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH TRACKED A BIT FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, HAS MOVED WELL TO THE NORTH
AND IS NOW MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DIMINISH, BUT DAYTIME MIXING WILL KEEP
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHT, AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT FAR INLAND.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN TO THE COAST AND WEST SIDE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
EXTENT AS SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH AT
THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEST SIDE. AGAIN, VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO KEEP AREA
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
AB IT WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE NEW THINKING. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE EVENT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE REGION UNDER WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE CONSIDERED A FALL
PATTERN. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM. THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY
PARTICULAR WAVE THAT WOULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A LATE WEEK TROUGH IS RESOLVED BY THE MODELS IN LATER
RUNS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND BUMPY RIDES INTO AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...GENERAL
BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COOL, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES WITH
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WEST SIDE LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST
SIDE) COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291744
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1044 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND BUMPY RIDES INTO AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST AND UMPQUA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE
SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
FORECAST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH
GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE
TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE DROPPED THE STORM WARNING.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP
WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM
GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 291744
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1044 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE MOUNTAIN WAVE
TURBULENCE AND BUMPY RIDES INTO AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST AND UMPQUA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE
SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
FORECAST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH
GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE
TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE DROPPED THE STORM WARNING.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP
WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM
GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 291538
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS MOVED ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE
NOT QUITE REACHED THE STRENGTH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WINDS
ELSEWHERE ARE RIGHT ON TRACK. PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY LESS
INLAND, BUT AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES, AS WELL AS
IN THE UMPQUA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN CASCADES, HAVE MET
EXPECTATIONS. REPORTS THIS MORNING HAVE CONFIRMED THAT ALL MAJOR
WILDFIRES IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RECEIVED A WETTING RAIN, AND
MUCH OF THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY BEEN SWEPT OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE
MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, MAINLY TO
BRING THINGS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... THE SURFACE
LOW HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THUS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS, WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD VERTICAL
MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN, SOME ISOLATED STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, HAVE
DROPPED THE STORM WARNING. SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS, WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. -BPN/CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/CC/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291146
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY AS
A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM OREGON MOVES TO THE
WASHINGTON COAST. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FAST-MOVING, AND HAS
ALREADY MOVED INLAND. WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT, ITS POSITION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM EITHER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR THE NARROW BAND
OF INTENSE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT PASSES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN AND EAST
SIDE WIND GUSTS ARE ALREADY AT 25 TO 40 MPH AND WILL LIKELY REACH
35 TO 55 MPH EXCEPT LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH AT EAST SIDE RIDGES
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN PAISLEY AND SILVER LAKE IN LAKE
COUNTY. WEST SIDE VALLEY WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AT 20
TO 30 MPH...EXCEPT TO 40 MPH NEAR WEED, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNED BRANCHES WITH DROUGHT STRESSED TREES STILL FULL OF LEAVES.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH LIMITED TO CURRY COUNTY, AND
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. AN INCH
TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER HAS BEEN MEASURED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN THE CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THAT WILL BE THE BULK OF
THE COASTAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF COOS AND CURRY
COUNTIES. RAIN WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT, LOCALLY NOT JUST MODERATE BUT
HEAVY ON THE WEST SIDE THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...MAINLY TOWARD THE LOW END OF
THAT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EAST SIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN IN NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SPARSE, LIGHT, AND MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE.

THOUGH THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, THIS CHANGE TO AN ACTIVE, COOLER,
ONSHORE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO WASHINGTON LATE TODAY THEN
ANOTHER BROAD LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WINDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG AS THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WITH THE COLDEST AIR/STRONGEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT, IT WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MAINLY WEST SIDE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS INITIALIZED
VERY WELL WITH TODAY`S STORM. AS A RESULT, I RAISED THE WEST SIDE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT SHAVED A BIT OFF OF THE GFS INDICATED
AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH STILL LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY WILL BE COOL WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN. BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS AIMED
AT CANADA AND WASHINGTON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP ITS FOCUS WELL
NORTH OF US ON TUESDAY BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT HAS A
CHANCE OF BRINGING VERY LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

IT WILL BE THE SAME STORY BUT WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH ANOTHER FEW ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO LABOR DAY, THE GFS MAY BE TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND STRONG WITH RIDGING BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A MODEST
DRYING AND WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
WINDS ELSEWHERE. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN.  THE MOST IMPACTING
CONDITIONS AT EACH LOCATION FOR WIND SHEAR, WIND, AND RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO LAST ONLY 3 TO 6 HOURS, GREATEST ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST,
AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG THE COAST AND AREAS OF MVFR
VIS/CIGS FROM THE CASCADES WEST THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015... A STRONG LOW
WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INSIDE OF 130 WEST LONGITUDE
NEAR 42 NORTH LATITUDE AND THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE 925 MB WINDS MORE
PARALLEL TO THE COAST...BUT STILL IN EXCESS OF 50KT NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. WITH GOOD VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SURFACE AS GUSTS AND HAVE KEPT THE
STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR GUSTS...FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
SOUTHERLY SEAS WILL REACH WARNING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WITH VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 14 TO 17 FOOT RANGE FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. SOUTH
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. /CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 400 AM PDT SATURDAY 29 AUGUST 2015...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST, MOUNTAINS, SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST SIDE TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.  WETTING RAIN LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES WITH A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
FOR INLAND AREAS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.

WHILE WE WILL GET RAIN OVER MANY OF OUR ONGOING FIRES, THERE REMAIN
CONCERNS ABOUT THIS STORM WITH RESPECT TO THOSE FIRES AND THE
PERSONNEL MANNING THEM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER ALL FIRE AREAS IN  THE CASCADES AND COASTAL
AREAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN RATHER THAN
CONVECTIVE, HIGH INTENSITY RAIN, SO BURN SCAR FLOODING AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ARE NOT A HUGE CONCERN. BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
ALSO, SNAGS, BURNED TREES, AND OTHER MATERIAL THAT HAVE BEEN
WEAKENED OVER THE SUMMER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME DOWN FROM WIND,
THE ADDED WEIGHT OF RAINFALL, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH. FIREFIGHTERS
SHOULD REMAIN VERY AWARE OF THEIR SURROUNDINGS THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON OR AROUND EXISTING FIRES AND BURN SCARS.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY AND WINDS DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACNW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO COOLER AND MORE
HUMID THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ030-031.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/CC





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