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000
FXUS66 KMFR 222209
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

&&

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND THOSE
THAT CHANNEL WINDS FROM THAT DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS WIND WILL REMAIN A FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, TO INCLUDE AT KOTH, WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT DIRECTION THAN
ALOFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
TODAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH IFR EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE FIVE. MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
AND CHOPPY, STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 221834
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1134 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOK REASONABLE. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN
THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT TODAY BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH SNOW LEVEL. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AND WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN HERE IN
MEDFORD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. WESTERN
QUARTER OF SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT THE
REST OF THE COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT
SEE RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND THOSE
THAT CHANNEL WINDS FROM THAT DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS WIND WILL REMAIN A FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, TO INCLUDE AT KOTH, WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT DIRECTION THAN
ALOFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
TODAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH IFR EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE FIVE. MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
AND CHOPPY, STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
  PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/BTL











000
FXUS66 KMFR 221613
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOK REASONABLE. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN
THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT TODAY BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH SNOW LEVEL. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AND WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN HERE IN
MEDFORD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. WESTERN
QUARTER OF SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT THE
REST OF THE COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT
SEE RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH, WHERE THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING, BECOMING MODERATE
TO HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEADIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KRBG AND AROUND
EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE EVENING. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND CHOPPY STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

AVIATION...22/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK EXTENDS
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR THIS MORNING
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BY
SUNRISE...RAIN WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG
AND AROUND EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. -SPILDE/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW GALES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
WIND WAVES TODAY AND THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WIND WAVES LOWER. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 220800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK EXTENDS
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR THIS MORNING
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BY
SUNRISE...RAIN WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG
AND AROUND EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW GALES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
WIND WAVES TODAY AND THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WIND WAVES LOWER. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
       PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
        PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/11






000
FXUS66 KMFR 220402
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. THEN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
AS IT PUSHES INLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND TO
THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UMPQUA. THEN EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES THEN STALLS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.5
TO 2 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LESS, AROUND 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES.


WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE INLAND AREAS, STRONGEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.


ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT. PRECIPITATION
RATES WILL DECREASE WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHARPLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. THE LLWS RISK BEGINS AROUND 03Z AND
EXTENDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WILL LOWER FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THERE BY SUNRISE.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION. STEADIER RAIN PROBABLY WON`T BEGIN
THOUGH UNTIL LATER IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG OR THE EVENING AT KMFR.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING REACHING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. EXPECT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 220402
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. THEN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
AS IT PUSHES INLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND TO
THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UMPQUA. THEN EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES THEN STALLS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.5
TO 2 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LESS, AROUND 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES.


WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE INLAND AREAS, STRONGEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.


ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT. PRECIPITATION
RATES WILL DECREASE WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHARPLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. THE LLWS RISK BEGINS AROUND 03Z AND
EXTENDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WILL LOWER FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THERE BY SUNRISE.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION. STEADIER RAIN PROBABLY WON`T BEGIN
THOUGH UNTIL LATER IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG OR THE EVENING AT KMFR.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING REACHING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. EXPECT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 212209
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES BEFORE ENDING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING, LINGERING, BUT DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE OREGON CASCADES AND IN THE
CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BECOME PARTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS ELSEWHERE TO GENERALLY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO INCREASE SHARPLY, RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND AND NEAR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE, WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL AREAS OF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE, WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL INLAND FROM THE COAST RANGE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
BTL/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1100 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A HEAVY WEST SWELL IS SUBSIDING SOME IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT IS STILL LARGE, WITH SEAS 11 TO 12 FEET AT THE BUOYS AS
OF 11AM PDT. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY AND, MORE SO TONIGHT, BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL BE
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

BTL/SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/BTL/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 212209
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES BEFORE ENDING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING, LINGERING, BUT DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE OREGON CASCADES AND IN THE
CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BECOME PARTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS ELSEWHERE TO GENERALLY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO INCREASE SHARPLY, RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND AND NEAR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE, WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL AREAS OF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE, WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL INLAND FROM THE COAST RANGE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
BTL/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1100 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A HEAVY WEST SWELL IS SUBSIDING SOME IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT IS STILL LARGE, WITH SEAS 11 TO 12 FEET AT THE BUOYS AS
OF 11AM PDT. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY AND, MORE SO TONIGHT, BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL BE
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

BTL/SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/BTL/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 211828
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1128 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER WITH SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 5500 FEET FOR SW OREGON. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT..EXPECT
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND ONLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPE UNTIL NOON. HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL GRID FOR
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST WIND FOR WEDNESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES SHOULD GET PLENTY OF RAIN. THE
ROGUE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN BY THEN. THOSE TWO ISSUES WILL BE
ON THE PLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES BEFORE ENDING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING, LINGERING, BUT DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE OREGON CASCADES AND IN THE
CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BECOME PARTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS ELSEWHERE TO GENERALLY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO INCREASE SHARPLY, RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND AND NEAR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE, WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL AREAS OF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE, WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL INLAND FROM THE COAST RANGE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
BTL/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1100 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A HEAVY WEST SWELL IS SUBSIDING SOME IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT IS STILL LARGE, WITH SEAS 11 TO 12 FEET AT THE BUOYS AS
OF 11AM PDT. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY AND, MORE SO TONIGHT, BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL BE
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

BTL/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/BTL











000
FXUS66 KMFR 211556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER WITH SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 5500 FEET FOR SW OREGON. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT..EXPECT
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND ONLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPE UNTIL NOON. HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL GRID FOR
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST WIND FOR WEDNESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES SHOULD GET PLENTY OF RAIN. THE
ROGUE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN BY THEN. THOSE TWO ISSUES WILL BE
ON THE PLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS
WILL KEEP GENERALLY VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. LATER THIS MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
DIMINISHING AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING OBSCURED. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A HEAVY WEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS
AROUND 13 FEET. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK







000
FXUS66 KMFR 211556
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER WITH SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 5500 FEET FOR SW OREGON. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT..EXPECT
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND ONLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPE UNTIL NOON. HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL GRID FOR
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST WIND FOR WEDNESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES SHOULD GET PLENTY OF RAIN. THE
ROGUE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN BY THEN. THOSE TWO ISSUES WILL BE
ON THE PLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS
WILL KEEP GENERALLY VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND FROM THE CASCADES
WEST THIS MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. LATER THIS MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
DIMINISHING AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE COAST AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
SHARPLY...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND
THE COAST WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT...AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING OBSCURED. /SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A HEAVY WEST SWELL
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS
AROUND 13 FEET. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK







000
FXUS66 KMFR 210805
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
        WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
        PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
        PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$

15/15/06






000
FXUS66 KMFR 210805
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
        WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
        PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
        PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$

15/15/06





000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 210416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE COOL POOL LOFT THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTNING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
ARE AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES STILL TO COME THROUGH HAVE ALREADY ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AN UPDATE. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL THIS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SHOWERS
REMAINING LATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES.
A COOL POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE SEE MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE COOL POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS
EVENING AND AT THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WE`LL GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST
IF THERE`S ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL REACH A PEAK THIS
EVENING AT AROUND 15 FEET.

LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10 FEET.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT
WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 202157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE CASCADES. A COOL
POOL ALOFT IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF CRESCENT CITY. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OFFSHORE AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE
MORE STRIKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT REACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WE`LL
GET A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY COULD END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT`S IN THE FORECAST IF THERE`S
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. STEADY RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE GOOD IV TRANSPORT AIMED RIGHT
AT THE COAST RANGE. SO IT`S NO SURPRISE THE MODELS PUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT`S A GOO BET 1-2
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN THIS AREA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST, SPECIFICALLY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WE MAY NOT GET ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST, SECOND WE`LL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. I DID KEEP IT
DRY IN THE MORNING AND PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTH COAST RANGE. ALSO, MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROGUE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE COAST COULD
EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CAL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE COULD SEE IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RATES WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND INTERMITTENT.

NEXT WE`LL ADDRESS THE WINDS. WINDS NEAR WEED HAVE DECREASE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE WE`LL BE CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR
WARNING LEVELS NEAR AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND
PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WINDS WILL CRANK UP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND
THEY ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE MORE WESTERLY, BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO AROUND 130W ON FRIDAY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE
CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE SPECIFICS, THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY, AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN MAKER
FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS, COAST, AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION, WE WEREN`T`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES. -WRIGHT


&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, BUT THE
THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS. SHOWERS
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL
ADDRESS THIS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.


PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201635
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
935 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND IS LOCATED OVER
THE CASCADES, BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL END. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND THAT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING INCREASING SHOWERS WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COAST. ADDITIONALLY THE
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR PARTS OF
LAKE, KLAMATH, MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE`LL CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT FOCUS
WILL BE A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT IMPACTING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WAS
GOING TO GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA. NOW THE 12Z NAM AND GFS PUSH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, THUS RESULTING IN LESS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.  SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG THE COAST, WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z,  LIFTING TO VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. FOR INLAND AREAS...EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS, AS WELL AS AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE AND
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH MEDFORD AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. IT DIDN`T TAKE LONG TO GET HERE AND WILL REACH THE
CASCADES BY MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS IN JUST A FEW HOURS AMOUNTED TO
0.75-1.25 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, BUT AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH WERE
MUCH LESS. THE BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BREAK FOR AWHILE, BUT THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS GREATEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION TO MEDICINE
LAKE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NAM12 INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
DUE TO COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL
BE GUSTY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. STILL COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO, BUT MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP THEM GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EXPECT A RELATIVE BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT BIG RAIN-MAKER HEADED OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE A VERY WET SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
PUSHING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAEFS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) SHOWING +4 SD FROM THE MEAN INDICATING A HEALTHY
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH STEADY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW,
BUT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY WEST OF THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPILDE

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN ALONG THE CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE
SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN
SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I
RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 201635
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
935 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT IS NOW PUSHING EAST AND IS LOCATED OVER
THE CASCADES, BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL END. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND THAT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING INCREASING SHOWERS WEST
OF THE CASCADES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND COAST. ADDITIONALLY THE
MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR PARTS OF
LAKE, KLAMATH, MODOC AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE`LL CATCH A
RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR NEXT FOCUS
WILL BE A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT IMPACTING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. YESTERDAY THE MODELS SUGGESTED THE FRONT WAS
GOING TO GET HUNG UP OVER OUR AREA. NOW THE 12Z NAM AND GFS PUSH
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, THUS RESULTING IN LESS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY EVENING.  SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG THE COAST, WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z,  LIFTING TO VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN, TONIGHT EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. FOR INLAND AREAS...EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS, AS WELL AS AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY PUSHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECT CIGS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN
SHOWERS AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE AND
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WATERS TODAY, EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  ALSO A HIGH
AND STEEP LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL IS BUILDING INTO THE WATERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS AROUND
14-16 FEET. A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS IS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
TODAY BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD
SWELL AT TIMES. ALSO OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING,
EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER. STEEP SEAS ABOVE 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH.

THEN, THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN WIND MAY REACH
GALES ALONG WITH HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT OVERALL, MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD WITH THIS EVENT. SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, WINDS APPROACHING
GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY. BUILDING WEST SWELL IS ALSO
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT OR
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE WATERS
WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW
SEAS REACHING 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH MEDFORD AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. IT DIDN`T TAKE LONG TO GET HERE AND WILL REACH THE
CASCADES BY MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS IN JUST A FEW HOURS AMOUNTED TO
0.75-1.25 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, BUT AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH WERE
MUCH LESS. THE BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BREAK FOR AWHILE, BUT THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS GREATEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION TO MEDICINE
LAKE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NAM12 INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
DUE TO COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL
BE GUSTY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. STILL COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO, BUT MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP THEM GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EXPECT A RELATIVE BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT BIG RAIN-MAKER HEADED OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE A VERY WET SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
PUSHING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAEFS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) SHOWING +4 SD FROM THE MEAN INDICATING A HEALTHY
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH STEADY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW,
BUT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY WEST OF THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPILDE

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN ALONG THE CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE
SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN
SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I
RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 201113
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
413 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH MEDFORD AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. IT DIDN`T TAKE LONG TO GET HERE AND WILL REACH THE
CASCADES BY MORNING, THEN MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS IN JUST A FEW HOURS AMOUNTED TO
0.75-1.25 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST, BUT AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH WERE
MUCH LESS. THE BAND OF STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BREAK FOR AWHILE, BUT THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS GREATEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION TO MEDICINE
LAKE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NAM12 INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
DUE TO COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALOFT. WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL
BE GUSTY TODAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. STILL COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.

SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO, BUT MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP THEM GOING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
EXPECT A RELATIVE BREAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT BIG RAIN-MAKER HEADED OUR WAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE A VERY WET SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
PUSHING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAEFS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT (IVT) SHOWING +4 SD FROM THE MEAN INDICATING A HEALTHY
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE FRONTAL BAND OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH STEADY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AT THE COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY, THEN
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ONSHORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW,
BUT RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY WEST OF THE CASCADES. COASTAL AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPILDE

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON`S AFD...THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR AREA AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT
THAT THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN ALONG THE CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE
SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF
BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN
SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I
RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT HAS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS AT THE COAST. SKY
CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY
12Z MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION
WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
     THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/SBN/TRW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 200439 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
938 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
CONFIRMING THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTION OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION ON MORE QUICKLY
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO
MOVE INTO OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE
COAST SUGGEST THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT
LIKELY TO GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY
MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTSIDE WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$













000
FXUS66 KMFR 200439 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
938 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING UPDATE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
CONFIRMING THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTION OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION ON MORE QUICKLY
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO
MOVE INTO OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE
COAST SUGGEST THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT
LIKELY TO GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY
MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTSIDE WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 930 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$














000
FXUS66 KMFR 200042 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
542 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS...

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE COAST SUGGEST
THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS PICKING
UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO GET
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTSIDE
WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$











000
FXUS66 KMFR 200042 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
542 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS...

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
OUR OUTER WATERS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE CLOUD FORMATION ALONG THE COAST SUGGEST
THERE ARE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST LATE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH MOST AREAS PICKING
UP BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH. FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE ROGUE VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY TO GET
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTSIDE
WITH 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER THE
MARINE WATERS, THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COOL
POOL ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -22 AND -24C) MOVES OVERHEAD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
PICK UP AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND SHASTA VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE SEE PEAK WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH IN THE SOUTH END OF THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TOUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES.

CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AND WINDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. RIGHT NOW
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. THE EC AND GEM SHOW THE FRONT KNOCKING
ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY EVENING (THE GEM IS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS). IN CONTRAST, THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND DO NOT BRING
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THEY
ARE ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS HEADING RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
THIS IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE IVT TRANSPORT WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING THE CORE OF THIS TAKING AIM AT SOUTHWEST
OREGON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS
AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAINS AIMED AT US AND A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH. THE FETCH OF THE MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY MEANS THAT THERE MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN ALONG THE CURRY
COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SISKIYOUS. THERE ARE ONLY
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/GEM ON THURSDAY, BUT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. I RAISED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ON
THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO CREEP BACK IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER VERY WET FRONT FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
MORE DIGGING AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE COAST.
IT ALSO TAKES THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL IN NORTH OF US. THIS IS THE
SAME THING IT DID LAST WEEK WITH OUR WED/THU FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THAN THE ECMWS WITH THIS WEEK`S
SYSTEMS, I`M INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION FOR THE ACTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THUS I`VE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CEILINGS HAVE REACHED THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT ALSO BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS INLAND. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SEND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING. SKY CONDITION WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REACH ROSEBURG/KRBG AROUND 06Z
THEN MOVE TO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS BUT ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITION WILL BEGIN
AT THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY AND SHASTA VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING KLAMATH FALLS/KLMT
MONDAY EVENING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 530 PM PDT SUN 19 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
AND MODERATE WIND WAVES THAT ARE LOCALLY HIGH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. DESPITE THESE LARGE
WIND WAVES, THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF THE SEAS IS A BUILDING LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL AT 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN A WEAKER FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
MODERATE AGAIN FROM AROUND 9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. MEANTIME, THE WEST SWELL WILL BE CONTINUING TO BUILD WITH
PEAK COMBINED SEAS OF AROUND 16 FEET EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH BOTH SWELL HEIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND STEEP. THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY TO
APPROACH THEREAFTER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN POSSIBLY GALES
AND HEAVY SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE WORSE
FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS NORTHWARD THAN TO THE SOUTH. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.

$$










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