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000
FXUS66 KMFR 230411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE APPROXIMATELY 4,500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ACCORDING TO THE BLM`S LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. ABOUT 1,200 OF THESE OCCURRED IN JACKSON
COUNTY, ALONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN,
BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE IS LIKELY TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NO UPDATES ARE BEING SENT OUT AT THIS TIME, AS WE`LL WAIT FOR
STORMS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT MORE BEFORE CANCELING AND/OR EXPIRING
CURRENT WARNINGS. AT THAT POINT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES WILL BE
MADE. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH ON
TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THE RES OF THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE COAST
TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 829 PM PDT 22 JULY 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 230411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE APPROXIMATELY 4,500 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ACCORDING TO THE BLM`S LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. ABOUT 1,200 OF THESE OCCURRED IN JACKSON
COUNTY, ALONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WAS REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS WELL AS SOME
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN,
BUT ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE IS LIKELY TO KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CASCADE CREST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NO UPDATES ARE BEING SENT OUT AT THIS TIME, AS WE`LL WAIT FOR
STORMS TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT MORE BEFORE CANCELING AND/OR EXPIRING
CURRENT WARNINGS. AT THAT POINT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES WILL BE
MADE. AT THE CURRENT TIME THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS VERY MUCH ON
TRACK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES THE RES OF THE EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE COAST
TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 829 PM PDT 22 JULY 2014 SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/TRW/SBN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 222145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE MOST FREQUENT ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE
COAST TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 222145
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (560 DM 500 MB
HEIGHTS) CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN THE BC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAKE THE TURN AND HEAD INLAND TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER US REMAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
FROM THE COAST. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RIGHT NOW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR OREGON
ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND, IN ADDITION, CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO INITIATE LOCALLY IN THE EXPECTED SPOTS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU
INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM AROUND MEDFORD EASTWARD, SO THIS IS
WHERE STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS. IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE COAST
OR UMPQUA WILL SEE ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, THE UPPER JET WILL INCREASE, AND BY THIS EVENING
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100 KT PLUS JET. AT THIS POINT, WE STAND THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTY,
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. CURRENTLY, STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTH AT AROUND 30 KNOTS, SO WHILE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
BY LATE EVENING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE.

AS MENTIONED, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND TOMORROW. THE BULK OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL WILL BE NORTH OF US, BUT THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY ISN`T GREAT
TOMORROW, BUT THE SIMPLE FACT THAT IT`S LATE JULY AND A FRONT IS
COMING THROUGH MEANS WE`LL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER TOMORROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO MEAN GUSTY WINDS EAST
OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY AND WE BEGIN TO RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL WEATHER FOR JULY AROUND HERE WHICH MEANS A RETURN OF THE
THERMAL TROUGH AND DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND 100 IN MEDFORD BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS MAY MEAN SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS A LITTLE FAR
OUT TO GET SPECIFIC. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE
COAST WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE MOST FREQUENT ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM THE
COAST TO THE UMPQUA BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 221551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
851 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALL THINGS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST AND ASSOCIATED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE IN OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, AND RADAR SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TOWARD OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS PLENTY OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, THE UPPER JET WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND OUR EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES WILL BE
UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 100 KT PLUS JET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO THUNDERSTORMS FOR US
TODAY, ESPECIALLY CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND EASTWARD, AND SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
INDEED, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, HAS THAT AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE TODAY. THE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL, AND WHILE THEY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN, THEY WILL BE MOVING, SO FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE MUCH CONCERN.
WILL BE MAKING SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY ADD SEVERE WORDING IN THE APPROPRIATE AREAS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 16Z
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
VFR ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE THIS MORNING...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY VFR BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST FREQUENT
ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 221551
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
851 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALL THINGS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY. A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST AND ASSOCIATED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE IN OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, AND RADAR SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TOWARD OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS PLENTY OF CLEARING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL SERVE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS IF THAT WEREN`T ENOUGH, THE UPPER JET WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND OUR EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES WILL BE
UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 100 KT PLUS JET BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO THUNDERSTORMS FOR US
TODAY, ESPECIALLY CASCADES/SISKIYOUS AND EASTWARD, AND SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
INDEED, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, HAS THAT AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE TODAY. THE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL, AND WHILE THEY WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN, THEY WILL BE MOVING, SO FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE MUCH CONCERN.
WILL BE MAKING SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY ADD SEVERE WORDING IN THE APPROPRIATE AREAS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAFS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 16Z
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
VFR ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE THIS MORNING...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY VFR BUT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST FREQUENT
ACTIVITY FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 221040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/CC/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 221040
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
130W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INLAND.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MANY INLAND AREAS TODAY. FURTHER,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR
WIND WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACNW COAST BRINGING A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE REMAINED ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM
NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN OREGON AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LIFTED INDICES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2 TO -4 AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7 TO 8 ARE FORECAST. MUCAPE VALUES OF NEAR 500 OR GREATER ARE
INDICATED AS WELL. AS UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BRINGING AREAS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BULK SHEAR
OF 30 KTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING HAIL OR WINDS.

HAVE INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA FROM CRATER
LAKE TO CHEMULT FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE SINCE MODELS
SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO INCREASED THE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY GIVEN THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE COAST.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD.

THEN, THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE PACNW COAST TONIGHT AND
INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, AND SREF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON AS
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN-MOST KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 30S FOR
AREAS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S AND FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. ALSO A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND
BRING CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO AREAS
ALONG  THE COAST. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TODAY...THEN A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

CC/CC/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 220300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM IN.

QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH A FEW IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THAT ROUND GENERATED A BUNCH
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY...ARCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME...MOSTLY OVER LAKE COUNTY...BUT OVERALL THE
ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND WIND...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN USUALLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG 130W THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN HEAD OUT TO THE EAST
THURSDAY.

INITIALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WERE SOME
TODAY BUT TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
BRING MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 21/12Z GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER. DRY LIGHTNING WILL NOT BE A BIG
ISSUE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AREAS THAT GET
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALL
OF THE CWA BUT THE COAST...LOWER UMPQUA AND THE KALMIOPSIS/ILLINOIS
VALLEY AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER BUT WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND UMPQUA BASIN. IT WILL BE MORE STABLE THAT DAY WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME MAY GET GOING OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE SIERRA INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/00Z TAFS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE SISKIYOUS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING. THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND WILL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15






000
FXUS66 KMFR 220300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM IN.

QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH A FEW IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY. ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THAT ROUND GENERATED A BUNCH
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY...ARCING NORTHEAST INTO
THE CASCADES AND THE EAST SIDE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
ACTIVE AT THIS TIME...MOSTLY OVER LAKE COUNTY...BUT OVERALL THE
ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AND WIND...WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN USUALLY STRONG TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN ALONG 130W THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT WILL MOVE
EAST ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN HEAD OUT TO THE EAST
THURSDAY.

INITIALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WERE SOME
TODAY BUT TOMORROW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE...AND THIS WILL
BRING MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE 21/12Z GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER. DRY LIGHTNING WILL NOT BE A BIG
ISSUE...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN AREAS THAT GET
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALL
OF THE CWA BUT THE COAST...LOWER UMPQUA AND THE KALMIOPSIS/ILLINOIS
VALLEY AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER BUT WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG OVER THE RIDGES AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
AND UMPQUA BASIN. IT WILL BE MORE STABLE THAT DAY WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME MAY GET GOING OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY
NORTH FROM THE SIERRA INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/00Z TAFS...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE SISKIYOUS AND NORTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING. THESE
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AND WILL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT THE COAST WHERE STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS
IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        ORZ617-621>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
        CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 212202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THAN 300 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS REGION BUT CAPES WERE GREATER
THAN 500 KG/J ACROSS MODOC COUNTY INTO LAKE COUNTY. FARTHER
WEST...THERE IS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING
BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE AREA TO BE ALONG THE LINE THAT HAS ALREADY
FORMED.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WITH INCREASING AND BACKING FLOW OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE THE LAST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
BY 18Z TUESDAY OUR REGION IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE LEFT-FRONT
QUADRANT AND RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250 MB JET WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIFT. BY 00Z THIS AREA SHIFTS MORE TOWARD
NORTHEAST OREGON. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST
ROUGHLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 5 EAST. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH COULD SPREAD ANY FIRE WHICH ARE
INITIATED OR ONGOING.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS
SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY NORTH FROM THE SIERRA
INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/21Z AMENDED TAFS...TAFS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A LINE FROM EASTERN MODOC COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VIS FROM NEAR KAAT NORTHEASTWARD. FURTHER WEST
TO THE CASCADES, INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS AND
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MORE STABLE. WHILE THIS WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF
CUMULUS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT WORST. FOR
THIS REASON, TS WAS REMOVED FROM KLMT TAF IN FAVOR OF VCTS. THERE
IS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN OREGON (INCLUDING
KRBG), BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS CIGS ARE AND
WILL REMAIN VFR. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 212202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THAN 300 LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS MODOC COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS REGION BUT CAPES WERE GREATER
THAN 500 KG/J ACROSS MODOC COUNTY INTO LAKE COUNTY. FARTHER
WEST...THERE IS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES FALLING FROM A MID LEVEL DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING
BUT EXPECT THE ACTIVE AREA TO BE ALONG THE LINE THAT HAS ALREADY
FORMED.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WITH INCREASING AND BACKING FLOW OVER OUR REGION. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE THE LAST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
BY 18Z TUESDAY OUR REGION IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE LEFT-FRONT
QUADRANT AND RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250 MB JET WHICH IS A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIFT. BY 00Z THIS AREA SHIFTS MORE TOWARD
NORTHEAST OREGON. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST
ROUGHLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5 BUT WITH THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 5 EAST. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH COULD SPREAD ANY FIRE WHICH ARE
INITIATED OR ONGOING.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CASCADES WESTWARD...MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE.
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE BUT WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR NORTHERN KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWEST. HOT READINGS
SHOULD BE FELT BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD WORK ITS WAY NORTH FROM THE SIERRA
INTO THE MODOC COUNTY AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/21Z AMENDED TAFS...TAFS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A LINE FROM EASTERN MODOC COUNTY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VIS FROM NEAR KAAT NORTHEASTWARD. FURTHER WEST
TO THE CASCADES, INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS AND
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MORE STABLE. WHILE THIS WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF
CUMULUS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT WORST. FOR
THIS REASON, TS WAS REMOVED FROM KLMT TAF IN FAVOR OF VCTS. THERE
IS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN OREGON (INCLUDING
KRBG), BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS CIGS ARE AND
WILL REMAIN VFR. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1245 PM PDT 21 JULY 2014...WEAK HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ624.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ625.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ617-621>623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ280>282-284-285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ285.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ280-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 211540
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION... A FEW DISTINCT AREAS ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING. A
LARGE CLOUD BAND OF THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND MAINLY
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ALSO STRETCH
ACROSS MUCH OF KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL. A CONVECTIVE
LINE OF CLOUDS EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN-BETWEEN ACROSS SISKIYOU... MODOC...AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THESE TWO CLOUD MASSES AND THIS WILL BE
THE AREA OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT THAT THE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT SHOULD TAKE ANY STORMS INTO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE AREAS ARE COVERED BY A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THIS
IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
STRONG DEFORMATION ALOFT.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC TROUGH. THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXPAND WESTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY FROM
AROUND THE CASCADES AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEK...EVEN BELOW NORMAL DURING
THE DAYTIME...THEN BECOMING HOT AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SANDLER

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... A COUPLE DAYS OF LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION OVER NE CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTIVE MIXING
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH MORNING CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE
OFF THE TABLE. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
COLLIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING VERY STRONG
THETA E CONVERSION FROM THE TRINITY ALPS...INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND UP TO NORTH LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH TH E SHORT WAVE CYCLING THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT JET SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT JET THAT IS CENTERED
OVER TAHOE. THE MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 700
MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 30KT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CONCERN OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MIXING OUT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM SPAWNING BEDS FROM WHERE
THE CELLS WILL HATCH BEFORE RUNNING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS FAR WEST AS
ROSEBURG WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CELLS THAT MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE
AS WELL. SVEN

FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING WAS ENOUGH TO START AT LEAST SEVERAL FIRES IN
THE MODOC AS SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 600 TO 800 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED THERE.

FOR TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA LIES VIRTUALLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
CLOUD BANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHILE THE ONE TO THE NORTHWEST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM A DEEPENING
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AREAS
UNDER THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING TODAY WILL BE
THOSE AREAS THAT STAY CLOUD FREE THE LONGEST- MOST LIKELY SISKIYOU
COUNTY, SOUTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.
COMPLICATING THIS PICTURE A BIT IS A SUBTLE, YET NOTABLE, IMPULSE
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
IS INDICATED BY SOME COOLING AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND NOTABLE IN THE
500MB VORTICITY FIELDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ISOLATED STORMS
INTO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IN FACT, IT`S LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 282 FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTOGETHER, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LESS HEATING, INSTABILITY IS NOT
AS GREAT TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE
EXPECTED ACTIVITY.

ON TUESDAY THE PIVOTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ENOUGH DRYING MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO KEEP COVERAGE OF
STORMS ISOLATED THERE, BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY CONFLICTING
SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE SISKIYOUS
AND CASCADES AND MIGHT CLIP THE VALLEYS OF JACKSON COUNTY IF THEY
CAN DEVELOP SOON ENOUGH OR OVERWHELM THE AFTERNOON UP VALLEY BREEZE.
ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM IN THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
NOT BE ALL THAT NUMEROUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE, MAINLY JUST
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS IS DUE TO DRYING
WORKING IN AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
AND STARTS THAT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY VERY WELL GET UP
AND RUN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL LOSE THE
STORMS, BUT WILL SEE ANOTHER GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING ARE STILL
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280-281.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 211540
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION... A FEW DISTINCT AREAS ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING. A
LARGE CLOUD BAND OF THICK MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND MAINLY
WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ALSO STRETCH
ACROSS MUCH OF KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL. A CONVECTIVE
LINE OF CLOUDS EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN-BETWEEN ACROSS SISKIYOU... MODOC...AND
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG
DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THESE TWO CLOUD MASSES AND THIS WILL BE
THE AREA OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT THAT THE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ALLOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE TO BE REACHED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT SHOULD TAKE ANY STORMS INTO
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THESE AREAS ARE COVERED BY A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. THIS
IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
STRONG DEFORMATION ALOFT.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC TROUGH. THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXPAND WESTWARD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
CASCADES. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY FROM
AROUND THE CASCADES AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEK...EVEN BELOW NORMAL DURING
THE DAYTIME...THEN BECOMING HOT AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SANDLER

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... A COUPLE DAYS OF LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION OVER NE CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTIVE MIXING
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH MORNING CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE
OFF THE TABLE. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
COLLIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING VERY STRONG
THETA E CONVERSION FROM THE TRINITY ALPS...INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND UP TO NORTH LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH TH E SHORT WAVE CYCLING THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT JET SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT JET THAT IS CENTERED
OVER TAHOE. THE MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 700
MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 30KT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CONCERN OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MIXING OUT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM SPAWNING BEDS FROM WHERE
THE CELLS WILL HATCH BEFORE RUNNING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS FAR WEST AS
ROSEBURG WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CELLS THAT MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE
AS WELL. SVEN

FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING WAS ENOUGH TO START AT LEAST SEVERAL FIRES IN
THE MODOC AS SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 600 TO 800 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED THERE.

FOR TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA LIES VIRTUALLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
CLOUD BANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHILE THE ONE TO THE NORTHWEST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM A DEEPENING
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AREAS
UNDER THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING TODAY WILL BE
THOSE AREAS THAT STAY CLOUD FREE THE LONGEST- MOST LIKELY SISKIYOU
COUNTY, SOUTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.
COMPLICATING THIS PICTURE A BIT IS A SUBTLE, YET NOTABLE, IMPULSE
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
IS INDICATED BY SOME COOLING AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND NOTABLE IN THE
500MB VORTICITY FIELDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ISOLATED STORMS
INTO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IN FACT, IT`S LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 282 FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTOGETHER, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LESS HEATING, INSTABILITY IS NOT
AS GREAT TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE
EXPECTED ACTIVITY.

ON TUESDAY THE PIVOTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ENOUGH DRYING MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO KEEP COVERAGE OF
STORMS ISOLATED THERE, BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY CONFLICTING
SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE SISKIYOUS
AND CASCADES AND MIGHT CLIP THE VALLEYS OF JACKSON COUNTY IF THEY
CAN DEVELOP SOON ENOUGH OR OVERWHELM THE AFTERNOON UP VALLEY BREEZE.
ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM IN THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
NOT BE ALL THAT NUMEROUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE, MAINLY JUST
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS IS DUE TO DRYING
WORKING IN AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
AND STARTS THAT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY VERY WELL GET UP
AND RUN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL LOSE THE
STORMS, BUT WILL SEE ANOTHER GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING ARE STILL
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280-281.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 211334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
634 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... A COUPLE DAYS OF LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION OVER NE CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTIVE MIXING
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH MORNING CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE
OFF THE TABLE. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
COLLIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING VERY STRONG
THETA E CONVERSION FROM THE TRINITY ALPS...INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND UP TO NORTH LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH TH E SHORT WAVE CYCLING THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT JET SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT JET THAT IS CENTERED
OVER TAHOE. THE MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 700
MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 30KT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CONCERN OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MIXING OUT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM SPAWNING BEDS FROM WHERE
THE CELLS WILL HATCH BEFORE RUNNING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS FAR WEST AS
ROSEBURG WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CELLS THAT MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE
AS WELL. SVEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING WAS ENOUGH TO START AT LEAST SEVERAL FIRES IN
THE MODOC AS SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 600 TO 800 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED THERE.

FOR TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA LIES VIRTUALLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
CLOUD BANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHILE THE ONE TO THE NORTHWEST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM A DEEPENING
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AREAS
UNDER THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING TODAY WILL BE
THOSE AREAS THAT STAY CLOUD FREE THE LONGEST- MOST LIKELY SISKIYOU
COUNTY, SOUTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.
COMPLICATING THIS PICTURE A BIT IS A SUBTLE, YET NOTABLE, IMPULSE
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
IS INDICATED BY SOME COOLING AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND NOTABLE IN THE
500MB VORTICITY FIELDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ISOLATED STORMS
INTO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IN FACT, IT`S LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 282 FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTOGETHER, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LESS HEATING, INSTABILITY IS NOT
AS GREAT TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE
EXPECTED ACTIVITY.

ON TUESDAY THE PIVOTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ENOUGH DRYING MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO KEEP COVERAGE OF
STORMS ISOLATED THERE, BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY CONFLICTING
SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE SISKIYOUS
AND CASCADES AND MIGHT CLIP THE VALLEYS OF JACKSON COUNTY IF THEY
CAN DEVELOP SOON ENOUGH OR OVERWHELM THE AFTERNOON UP VALLEY BREEZE.
ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM IN THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
NOT BE ALL THAT NUMEROUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE, MAINLY JUST
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS IS DUE TO DRYING
WORKING IN AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
AND STARTS THAT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY VERY WELL GET UP
AND RUN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL LOSE THE
STORMS, BUT WILL SEE ANOTHER GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING ARE STILL
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280-281.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 211334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
634 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... A COUPLE DAYS OF LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION OVER NE CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTIVE MIXING
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH MORNING CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE
OFF THE TABLE. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
COLLIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING VERY STRONG
THETA E CONVERSION FROM THE TRINITY ALPS...INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND UP TO NORTH LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH TH E SHORT WAVE CYCLING THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT JET SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT JET THAT IS CENTERED
OVER TAHOE. THE MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 700
MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 30KT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CONCERN OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MIXING OUT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM SPAWNING BEDS FROM WHERE
THE CELLS WILL HATCH BEFORE RUNNING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS FAR WEST AS
ROSEBURG WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CELLS THAT MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE
AS WELL. SVEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAY`S LIGHTNING WAS ENOUGH TO START AT LEAST SEVERAL FIRES IN
THE MODOC AS SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF 600 TO 800 LIGHTNING STRIKES
OCCURRED THERE.

FOR TODAY, THE FORECAST AREA LIES VIRTUALLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
CLOUD BANDS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHILE THE ONE TO THE NORTHWEST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM A DEEPENING
LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AREAS
UNDER THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING TODAY WILL BE
THOSE AREAS THAT STAY CLOUD FREE THE LONGEST- MOST LIKELY SISKIYOU
COUNTY, SOUTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY.
COMPLICATING THIS PICTURE A BIT IS A SUBTLE, YET NOTABLE, IMPULSE
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
IS INDICATED BY SOME COOLING AT THE 500MB LEVEL AND NOTABLE IN THE
500MB VORTICITY FIELDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ISOLATED STORMS
INTO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IN FACT, IT`S LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 282 FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTOGETHER, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LESS HEATING, INSTABILITY IS NOT
AS GREAT TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY, BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE
EXPECTED ACTIVITY.

ON TUESDAY THE PIVOTING SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ENOUGH DRYING MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO KEEP COVERAGE OF
STORMS ISOLATED THERE, BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY CONFLICTING
SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE SISKIYOUS
AND CASCADES AND MIGHT CLIP THE VALLEYS OF JACKSON COUNTY IF THEY
CAN DEVELOP SOON ENOUGH OR OVERWHELM THE AFTERNOON UP VALLEY BREEZE.
ANOTHER INTERESTING ITEM IN THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
NOT BE ALL THAT NUMEROUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE, MAINLY JUST
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS IS DUE TO DRYING
WORKING IN AND IS LIKELY TO GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
AND STARTS THAT OCCUR OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS MAY VERY WELL GET UP
AND RUN IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY WE`LL LOSE THE
STORMS, BUT WILL SEE ANOTHER GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT WARMING ARE STILL
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAFS...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR EARLY TO
MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO STAY ALOFT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE OREGON CASCADES DURING WHICH
TIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCAL MVFR TO IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR THE STRONGER
CELLS. TONIGHT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL AFTER 22/06Z. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 21 JULY 2014...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS
TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ617-621>623.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ280>282-284-285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280-281.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/BTL







000
FXUS66 KMFR 211011
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
311 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION... A COUPLE DAYS OF LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION OVER NE CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTIVE MIXING
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH MORNING CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE
OFF THE TABLE. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
COLLIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING VERY STRONG
THETA E CONVERSION FROM THE TRINITY ALPS...INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND UP TO NORTH LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH TH E SHORT WAVE CYCLING THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT JET SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT JET THAT IS CENTERED
OVER TAHOE. THE MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 700
MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 30KT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CONCERN OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MIXING OUT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM SPAWNING BEDS FROM WHERE
THE CELLS WILL HATCH BEFORE RUNNING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS FAR WEST AS
ROSEBURG WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CELLS THAT MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE
AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY NIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO MORE AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 1000 PM PDT 20 JULY 2014...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-025-026.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ORZ027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-030-031.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR ORZ028-029.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081-082.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CAZ085.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ083.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ABOVE 500 FEET FOR
     FOR CAZ084.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 211011
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
311 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION... A COUPLE DAYS OF LIKELY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OFFSHORE...
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION OVER NE CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTIVE MIXING
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH MORNING CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE
OFF THE TABLE. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
COLLIDE WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING VERY STRONG
THETA E CONVERSION FROM THE TRINITY ALPS...INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND UP TO NORTH LAKE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH TH E SHORT WAVE CYCLING THROUGH AROUND MAX HEATING
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KT JET SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT JET THAT IS CENTERED
OVER TAHOE. THE MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE 700
MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 30KT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A CONCERN OF CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MIXING OUT SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...BUT THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND THIS WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM SPAWNING BEDS FROM WHERE
THE CELLS WILL HATCH BEFORE RUNNING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH OUR AREA.
THE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE WEST SIDE AS FAR WEST AS
ROSEBURG WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CELLS THAT MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE
AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/06Z TAFS...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN MONDAY NIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO MORE AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 1000 PM PDT 20 JULY 2014...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-025-026.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ORZ027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-030-031.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR ORZ028-029.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081-082.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CAZ085.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ083.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ABOVE 500 FEET FOR
     FOR CAZ084.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 210300
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM IN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND MODOC COUNTY. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WANING
NOW BUT THERE`S MORE IN THE PIPELINE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVER SISKIYOU...MODOC...EASTERN
KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND IT
IS PHASING WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL CREATE A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA...AND THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC AND LATE COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING...
SPREADING TO THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE KEY TO COVERAGE WILL BE
CLOUD COVER...IF IT IS WIDESPREAD IT WILL MAKE SURFACE HEATING
LESS OF A FACTOR AND THIS MAY KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ISOLATED. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE INLAND MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST
AREAS.

THE DISCUSSION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FROM THE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFD FOLLOWS...STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT
THOUGH SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON. ON TUESDAY MORNING A 90 KT JET MAX IS ORIENTED OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...LEAVING AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION...A FAVORABLE AREA FOR UPWARD MOTION AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEN...COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH
YET MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH...PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA THEN EXPANDS TO COVER THE CASCADES AND
SHASTA VALLEY FOR LIGHTNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH VALUES OF BULK SHEAR FROM 0-6KM SUGGEST THAT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT OF COURSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY HAS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SHEAR TO REALIZE ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST YET.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BASICALLY ENDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A STABLE AIR
MASS MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
COOLER WEATHER LASTING FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THIS COOLDOWN WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WARMUP...WITH HOTTEST CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/00Z TAFS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND PRODUCING LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AT
KOTH OVERNIGHT, THEN LIFTING TO VFR TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES AGAIN TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ELSEWHERE TOMORROW. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM PDT 20 JULY 2014...
MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. AT THE SAME TIME, STEEP WIND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSFORM INTO FRESH SWELL AS PERIODS LENGTHEN. WE WILL
THEN SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP
SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. -WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SIERRAS PUSHING INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THIS BETWEEN 11PM AND 11AM PDT IT`S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE
SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A HEALTHY MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIM PUSHES IN FROM
THE SOUTH WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT. THIS COULD GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND COOLING TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOSTLY EASTERN SISKIYOU, KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC COUNTIES. THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT COULD WORK AGAINST AN OUTBREAK. FIRST
THE MODELS HAVE BACK OFF ON CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON AND CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON HAVING AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS LOW.
MODELS SHOW PWATS INCREASING MONDAY AND WE COULD GET WETTING
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS AND
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE LIKELY.
THESE STARTS MAY, INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM BEFORE
FIRES GET BIG.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LIGHTING
FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS
AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFFSHORE REORIENTS THE OVERFLOW BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOLING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FROM LIGHTNING, BUT GIVEN THE SEVERE
DRYNESS MANY FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ENDING
TIME OF THE CURRENT WATCHES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES
624..625...284 AND 285 AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE
ZONES 623...281 AND 282 STARTING TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER WEST IF NEW GUIDANCE
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA OF INSTABILITY.

FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO
CONDITIONS IN WHICH NEW STARTS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WHEN ANY NEW FIRES WILL REALLY GET UP AND GO. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
RETROGRADING WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES HEATING UP. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THUS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BTL/PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
        FOR ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
        EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
        FOR ORZ624.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
        CAZ285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
        EVENING FOR CAZ281-282.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
        FOR CAZ284.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ282-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 202128
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
AS WE HAVE YET TO REALLY EXPERIENCE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
UPCOMING TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...FOR THE 9TH DAY IN A ROW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE HEATING...INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LIFT OVER HIGH TERRAIN
HAVE HELPED TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS OVER LASSEN COUNTY. THESE STORMS
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
KICKING OFF ISOLATED STORMS IN MODOC OR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTY.

TONIGHT THE RAP13 MODEL SHOWS A VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING JUST AHEAD
OF THIS VORT MAX OVER THE LAKE TAHOE REGION. SO THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MODOC COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ALIGNING WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AT RFWMFR THAT CONTINUES FOR THAT REGION. THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFT
CAN ASSESS THE WATCH TONIGHT AND WILL MAKE A DECISION WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A WARNING OR NOT...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AMONGST OTHER FACTORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DAYS. FIRST...MONDAY FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS FOR STORMS...WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
ACCOMPANIES THIS SHORTWAVE THAT COULD PREVENT THE INSTABILITY NEEDED
FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES.

STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. ON TUESDAY MORNING A
90 KT JET MAX IS ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...LEAVING AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION...A FAVORABLE AREA
FOR UPWARD MOTION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEN...COOLING ALOFT
IN COMBINATION WITH YET MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH...PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA THEN EXPANDS TO COVER THE CASCADES AND
SHASTA VALLEY FOR LIGHTNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH VALUES OF BULK SHEAR FROM 0-6KM SUGGEST THAT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT OF COURSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY HAS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SHEAR TO REALIZE ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST YET.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BASICALLY ENDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A STABLE AIR
MASS MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
COOLER WEATHER LASTING FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THIS COOLDOWN WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WARMUP...WITH HOTTEST CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS CLEARED FROM THE COAST EXCEPT IN THE
BROOKINGS AREA WHERE IFR CONDITIONS LINGER AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT IFR STRATUS
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO NORTH BEND THIS EVENING BY ABOUT 8PM PDT.
STRATUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND TO COASTAL VALLEYS BUT SHOULD
STOP BEFORE ROSEBURG. MODELS SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS TO CLEAR BY
MONDAY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER A LARGER AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CASCADES EAST.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM PDT 20 JULY 2014...MODERATE NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BUT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND. AT THE SAME TIME, STEEP WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSFORM INTO FRESH SWELL AS PERIODS LENGTHEN. WE WILL THEN SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. -WRIGHT



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST FIRE ZONE 285 AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED JUST OUTSIDE OF 285, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THAT
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST 285. WHILE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE STORM
CORES, CURRENT FUELS CONDITIONS, STORM MOVEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL
OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS YIELD SOME CONCERN. FROM THE TRINITY ALPS ACROSS
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS TO THE MODOC PLATEAU THERE IS A LESSER
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRAS PUSHING
INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN 11PM
AND 11AM PDT IT`S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A HEALTHY MID-UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIM PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOME COOLING
ALOFT. THIS COULD GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COOLING TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY EASTERN SISKIYOU, KLAMATH,
LAKE, AND MODOC COUNTIES. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT COULD
WORK AGAINST AN OUTBREAK. FIRST THE MODELS HAVE BACK OFF ON CAPE
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON
HAVING AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS LOW. MODELS SHOW PWATS INCREASING MONDAY
AND WE COULD GET WETTING RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CONTINUED DRY
FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE
STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY, INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE
SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TIME
TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG.

ON TUESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED, THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LIGHTING FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE REORIENTS THE OVERFLOW BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FROM LIGHTNING,
BUT, GIVEN THE SEVERE DRYNESS EXPECT THAT MANY FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY,
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE CURRENT WATCHES UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES 624..625...284 AND 285 AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES 623...281 AND 282 STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
WEST IF NEW GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY.

FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO
CONDITIONS IN WHICH NEW STARTS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WHEN ANY NEW FIRES WILL REALLY GET UP AND GO. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
RETROGRADING WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES HEATING UP. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THUS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BTL/PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.

CA...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ281-282.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

NSK







000
FXUS66 KMFR 202128
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
AS WE HAVE YET TO REALLY EXPERIENCE THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE
UPCOMING TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...FOR THE 9TH DAY IN A ROW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE HEATING...INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LIFT OVER HIGH TERRAIN
HAVE HELPED TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS OVER LASSEN COUNTY. THESE STORMS
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
KICKING OFF ISOLATED STORMS IN MODOC OR EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE
COUNTY.

TONIGHT THE RAP13 MODEL SHOWS A VORT MAX PUSHING NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING JUST AHEAD
OF THIS VORT MAX OVER THE LAKE TAHOE REGION. SO THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MODOC COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ALIGNING WITH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AT RFWMFR THAT CONTINUES FOR THAT REGION. THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFT
CAN ASSESS THE WATCH TONIGHT AND WILL MAKE A DECISION WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A WARNING OR NOT...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AMONGST OTHER FACTORS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DAYS. FIRST...MONDAY FEATURES MORE FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS FOR STORMS...WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
ACCOMPANIES THIS SHORTWAVE THAT COULD PREVENT THE INSTABILITY NEEDED
FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES.

STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON. ON TUESDAY MORNING A
90 KT JET MAX IS ORIENTED OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...LEAVING AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION...A FAVORABLE AREA
FOR UPWARD MOTION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THEN...COOLING ALOFT
IN COMBINATION WITH YET MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH...PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA THEN EXPANDS TO COVER THE CASCADES AND
SHASTA VALLEY FOR LIGHTNING FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH VALUES OF BULK SHEAR FROM 0-6KM SUGGEST THAT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT OF COURSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY HAS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SHEAR TO REALIZE ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST YET.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BASICALLY ENDS ON WEDNESDAY AS A STABLE AIR
MASS MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE PERIOD OF
COOLER WEATHER LASTING FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THIS COOLDOWN WILL LIKELY BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WARMUP...WITH HOTTEST CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS CLEARED FROM THE COAST EXCEPT IN THE
BROOKINGS AREA WHERE IFR CONDITIONS LINGER AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT IFR STRATUS
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO NORTH BEND THIS EVENING BY ABOUT 8PM PDT.
STRATUS WILL MAKE ITS WAY INLAND TO COASTAL VALLEYS BUT SHOULD
STOP BEFORE ROSEBURG. MODELS SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS TO CLEAR BY
MONDAY MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU...MODOC...AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COVER A LARGER AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE CASCADES EAST.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM PDT 20 JULY 2014...MODERATE NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BUT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND. AT THE SAME TIME, STEEP WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSFORM INTO FRESH SWELL AS PERIODS LENGTHEN. WE WILL THEN SEE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS
RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. -WRIGHT



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A LINE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST FIRE ZONE 285 AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED JUST OUTSIDE OF 285, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME OF THAT
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST 285. WHILE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE STORM
CORES, CURRENT FUELS CONDITIONS, STORM MOVEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL
OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS YIELD SOME CONCERN. FROM THE TRINITY ALPS ACROSS
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS TO THE MODOC PLATEAU THERE IS A LESSER
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRAS PUSHING
INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN 11PM
AND 11AM PDT IT`S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A HEALTHY MID-UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIM PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOME COOLING
ALOFT. THIS COULD GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COOLING TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY EASTERN SISKIYOU, KLAMATH,
LAKE, AND MODOC COUNTIES. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT COULD
WORK AGAINST AN OUTBREAK. FIRST THE MODELS HAVE BACK OFF ON CAPE
VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON
HAVING AMPLE CLOUD COVER IS LOW. MODELS SHOW PWATS INCREASING MONDAY
AND WE COULD GET WETTING RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CONTINUED DRY
FUELS CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE
STARTS ARE LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY, INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE
SPREAD PROBLEM, BUT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TIME
TO FIND THEM BEFORE FIRES GET BIG.

ON TUESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED, THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LIGHTING FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE REORIENTS THE OVERFLOW BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FROM LIGHTNING,
BUT, GIVEN THE SEVERE DRYNESS EXPECT THAT MANY FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY,
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE CURRENT WATCHES UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES 624..625...284 AND 285 AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES 623...281 AND 282 STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
WEST IF NEW GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY.

FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO
CONDITIONS IN WHICH NEW STARTS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WHEN ANY NEW FIRES WILL REALLY GET UP AND GO. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
RETROGRADING WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES HEATING UP. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THUS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BTL/PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.

CA...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ285.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ281-282.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

NSK






000
FXUS66 KMFR 201516
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BY 3 DEGREES OR SO...AND
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING AS TOMORROW WILL TREND LOWER BY ABOUT
5 MORE DEGREES. IN FACT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A WEEK.

TODAY`S FORECAST FOCUS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY IT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCLUDING A DISCUSSION
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST HAVE SPREAD
CONSIDERABLY FAR INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 FOR MOST OF DOUGLAS COUNTY.
ACROSS COASTAL COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR TO LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IT WILL BE
BREEZY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODOC,
SISKIYOU, AND SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM PDT 20 JULY 2014...SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TODAY. STEEP FRESH SWELL AND WIND WAVES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD AS
A NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
INITIATE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL LAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE REGION IS HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE...ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO TUESDAY. TO DAY THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH CONVECTION IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS HANDLED THE
INSTABILITY THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO LASSEN COUNTY THE
BEST WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER THAN -4 LI`S IN THAT SAME AREA...
SPREADING NEGATIVE LI`S INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS AFTERNOON THE
GFS IS SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE NAM IS SHOWING THE AREA OF LOWER THAN -4 LI`S SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE GFS IS ONLY SHOWING 700-500 RH OF ONLY 50-60
PERCENT...AND HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. 500 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER MONDAY WITH
INCREASED THETA E ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. BY 18Z THE GFS HAS
LI`S NEARING -2 FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE NORTHERN EAST
SIDE WITH 700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT. THIS SAME AREAS COINCIDES
WITH AN AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE AND BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM AREA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THAT SAME AREA AROUND MAX HEATING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CELLS FROM LATCHING TO THE TERRAIN BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CELLS TO BUILD ENOUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WHILE STILL IN THE AREA. A SIMILAR PATTERN
REMAINS INTO TUESDAY ONLY WITH THE AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY SOUTH INTO THE TRINITY ALPS
ALLOWING CELLS TO FULLY DEVELOP BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VERY MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD
TO THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND COVERAGE TODAY. AN ANALYSIS OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENT RELEVANT
RELATED MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE GFS MODEL IS OUTPERFORMING
THE NAM. THE NAM IS OVERDOING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AND,
THUS, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. ALTOGETHER, SUSPECT THAT
WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW FIRE STARTS. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE STORM CORES, CURRENT FUELS CONDITIONS, STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS YIELD SOME CONCERN.
FROM THE TRINITY ALPS ACROSS THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS TO THE MODOC
PLATEAU THERE IS A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRAS PUSHING
INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN 11PM
AND 11AM PDT IT`S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT IT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG MONSOONAL PUSH, I HAVE REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT
HAD BEEN IN PLACE WITH A NEW ONE COVERING THIS TIME PERIOD. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A HEALTHY MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIM
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT. THIS
GENERATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COOLING TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY EASTERN SISKIYOU, KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES, SO HAVE ADJUSTED WATCHES THERE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS IMPULSE TO RESULT IN
WETTING RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE
LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY, INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM,
BUT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM
BEFORE FIRES GET BIG.

ON TUESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED, THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LIGHTING FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE REORIENTS THE OVERFLOW BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FROM LIGHTNING,
BUT, GIVEN THE SEVERE DRYNESS EXPECT THAT MANY FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SUSPECT WE WILL NEED MORE WATCHES FOR THIS TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEK...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO
CONDITIONS IN WHICH NEW STARTS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WHEN ANY NEW FIRES WILL REALLY GET UP AND GO. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ625.

CA...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.

$$

SBN/SBN/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 201516
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY BY 3 DEGREES OR SO...AND
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING AS TOMORROW WILL TREND LOWER BY ABOUT
5 MORE DEGREES. IN FACT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A WEEK.

TODAY`S FORECAST FOCUS WILL MAINLY BE ON THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THAT
WILL ACCOMPANY IT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCLUDING A DISCUSSION
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE INTERESTED IN FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST HAVE SPREAD
CONSIDERABLY FAR INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 FOR MOST OF DOUGLAS COUNTY.
ACROSS COASTAL COOS AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR TO LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IT WILL BE
BREEZY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODOC,
SISKIYOU, AND SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM PDT 20 JULY 2014...SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TODAY. STEEP FRESH SWELL AND WIND WAVES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD AS
A NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL
INITIATE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THAT WILL LAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE REGION IS HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE...ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO TUESDAY. TO DAY THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH CONVECTION IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS HANDLED THE
INSTABILITY THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO LASSEN COUNTY THE
BEST WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER THAN -4 LI`S IN THAT SAME AREA...
SPREADING NEGATIVE LI`S INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS AFTERNOON THE
GFS IS SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE NAM IS SHOWING THE AREA OF LOWER THAN -4 LI`S SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE GFS IS ONLY SHOWING 700-500 RH OF ONLY 50-60
PERCENT...AND HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. 500 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER MONDAY WITH
INCREASED THETA E ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. BY 18Z THE GFS HAS
LI`S NEARING -2 FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE NORTHERN EAST
SIDE WITH 700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT. THIS SAME AREAS COINCIDES
WITH AN AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE AND BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM AREA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THAT SAME AREA AROUND MAX HEATING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CELLS FROM LATCHING TO THE TERRAIN BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CELLS TO BUILD ENOUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WHILE STILL IN THE AREA. A SIMILAR PATTERN
REMAINS INTO TUESDAY ONLY WITH THE AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY SOUTH INTO THE TRINITY ALPS
ALLOWING CELLS TO FULLY DEVELOP BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION.

FIRE WEATHER...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VERY MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD
TO THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND COVERAGE TODAY. AN ANALYSIS OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENT RELEVANT
RELATED MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE GFS MODEL IS OUTPERFORMING
THE NAM. THE NAM IS OVERDOING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AND,
THUS, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. ALTOGETHER, SUSPECT THAT
WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW FIRE STARTS. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE STORM CORES, CURRENT FUELS CONDITIONS, STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS YIELD SOME CONCERN.
FROM THE TRINITY ALPS ACROSS THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS TO THE MODOC
PLATEAU THERE IS A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRAS PUSHING
INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN 11PM
AND 11AM PDT IT`S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT IT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG MONSOONAL PUSH, I HAVE REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT
HAD BEEN IN PLACE WITH A NEW ONE COVERING THIS TIME PERIOD. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A HEALTHY MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIM
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT. THIS
GENERATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COOLING TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY EASTERN SISKIYOU, KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES, SO HAVE ADJUSTED WATCHES THERE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS IMPULSE TO RESULT IN
WETTING RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE
LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY, INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM,
BUT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM
BEFORE FIRES GET BIG.

ON TUESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED, THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LIGHTING FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE REORIENTS THE OVERFLOW BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FROM LIGHTNING,
BUT, GIVEN THE SEVERE DRYNESS EXPECT THAT MANY FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SUSPECT WE WILL NEED MORE WATCHES FOR THIS TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEK...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO
CONDITIONS IN WHICH NEW STARTS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WHEN ANY NEW FIRES WILL REALLY GET UP AND GO. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ625.

CA...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ284.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ356.

$$

SBN/SBN/BTL







000
FXUS66 KMFR 201308
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
607 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE REGION IS HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE...ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO TUESDAY. TO DAY THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH CONVECTION IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS HANDLED THE
INSTABILITY THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO LASSEN COUNTY THE
BEST WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER THAN -4 LI`S IN THAT SAME AREA...
SPREADING NEGATIVE LI`S INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS AFTERNOON THE
GFS IS SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE NAM IS SHOWING THE AREA OF LOWER THAN -4 LI`S SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE GFS IS ONLY SHOWING 700-500 RH OF ONLY 50-60
PERCENT...AND HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. 500 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER MONDAY WITH
INCREASED THETA E ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. BY 18Z THE GFS HAS
LI`S NEARING -2 FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE NORTHERN EAST
SIDE WITH 700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT. THIS SAME AREAS COINCIDES
WITH AN AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE AND BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM AREA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THAT SAME AREA AROUND MAX HEATING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CELLS FROM LATCHING TO THE TERRAIN BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CELLS TO BUILD ENOUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WHILE STILL IN THE AREA. A SIMILAR PATTERN
REMAINS INTO TUESDAY ONLY WITH THE AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY SOUTH INTO THE TRINITY ALPS
ALLOWING CELLS TO FULLY DEVELOP BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VERY MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD
TO THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND COVERAGE TODAY. AN ANALYSIS OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENT RELEVANT
RELATED MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE GFS MODEL IS OUTPERFORMING
THE NAM. THE NAM IS OVERDOING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AND,
THUS, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. ALTOGETHER, SUSPECT THAT
WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW FIRE STARTS. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE STORM CORES, CURRENT FUELS CONDITIONS, STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS YIELD SOME CONCERN.
FROM THE TRINITY ALPS ACROSS THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS TO THE MODOC
PLATEAU THERE IS A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRAS PUSHING
INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN 11PM
AND 11AM PDT IT`S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT IT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG MONSOONAL PUSH, I HAVE REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT
HAD BEEN IN PLACE WITH A NEW ONE COVERING THIS TIME PERIOD. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A HEALTHY MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIM
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT. THIS
GENERATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COOLING TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY EASTERN SISKIYOU, KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES, SO HAVE ADJUSTED WATCHES THERE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS IMPULSE TO RESULT IN
WETTING RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE
LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY, INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM,
BUT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM
BEFORE FIRES GET BIG.

ON TUESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED, THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LIGHTING FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE REORIENTS THE OVERFLOW BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FROM LIGHTNING,
BUT, GIVEN THE SEVERE DRYNESS EXPECT THAT MANY FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SUSPECT WE WILL NEED MORE WATCHES FOR THIS TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEK...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO
CONDITIONS IN WHICH NEW STARTS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WHEN ANY NEW FIRES WILL REALLY GET UP AND GO. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/12Z TAFS...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST HAVE SPREAD
CONSIDERABLY FAR INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 5. ACROSS
COASTAL COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TODAY. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODOC, SISKIYOU, AND SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM PDT 20 JULY 2014...
SOME LINGERING ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY. STEEP FRESH SWELL AND WIND WAVES THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD AS A NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL INITIATE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY
AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 5 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR ORZ625.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR ORZ624.

CA...
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 5 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR CAZ285.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH 11 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
  CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ356.

$$

SBN/BTL











000
FXUS66 KMFR 201308
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
607 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE REGION IS HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE...ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT INTO TUESDAY. TO DAY THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH CONVECTION IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GFS HANDLED THE
INSTABILITY THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS INTO LASSEN COUNTY THE
BEST WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER THAN -4 LI`S IN THAT SAME AREA...
SPREADING NEGATIVE LI`S INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. THIS AFTERNOON THE
GFS IS SHOWING MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE NAM IS SHOWING THE AREA OF LOWER THAN -4 LI`S SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THE GFS IS ONLY SHOWING 700-500 RH OF ONLY 50-60
PERCENT...AND HAVE CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. 500 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER MONDAY WITH
INCREASED THETA E ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. BY 18Z THE GFS HAS
LI`S NEARING -2 FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY TO THE NORTHERN EAST
SIDE WITH 700-500 RH ABOVE 80 PERCENT. THIS SAME AREAS COINCIDES
WITH AN AREAS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE AND BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM AREA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THAT SAME AREA AROUND MAX HEATING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CELLS FROM LATCHING TO THE TERRAIN BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CELLS TO BUILD ENOUGH TO BECOME ACTIVE RAIN AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WHILE STILL IN THE AREA. A SIMILAR PATTERN
REMAINS INTO TUESDAY ONLY WITH THE AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY SOUTH INTO THE TRINITY ALPS
ALLOWING CELLS TO FULLY DEVELOP BEFORE ENTERING THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VERY MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD
TO THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND COVERAGE TODAY. AN ANALYSIS OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENT RELEVANT
RELATED MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE GFS MODEL IS OUTPERFORMING
THE NAM. THE NAM IS OVERDOING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AND,
THUS, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA. ALTOGETHER, SUSPECT THAT
WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285 AND 625 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW FIRE STARTS. WHILE RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE STORM CORES, CURRENT FUELS CONDITIONS, STORM
MOVEMENT AND THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS YIELD SOME CONCERN.
FROM THE TRINITY ALPS ACROSS THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS TO THE MODOC
PLATEAU THERE IS A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRAS PUSHING
INTO MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS BETWEEN 11PM
AND 11AM PDT IT`S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE SHOWERS OR SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT IT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG MONSOONAL PUSH, I HAVE REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT
HAD BEEN IN PLACE WITH A NEW ONE COVERING THIS TIME PERIOD. MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A HEALTHY MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIM
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT. THIS
GENERATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COOLING TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY EASTERN SISKIYOU, KLAMATH, LAKE, AND MODOC
COUNTIES, SO HAVE ADJUSTED WATCHES THERE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS IMPULSE TO RESULT IN
WETTING RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CONTINUED DRY FUELS CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING POTENTIAL, NUMEROUS FIRE STARTS ARE
LIKELY. THESE STARTS MAY, INITIALLY, PRESENT A FIRE SPREAD PROBLEM,
BUT CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME TIME TO FIND THEM
BEFORE FIRES GET BIG.

ON TUESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED, THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LIGHTING FROM THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE REORIENTS THE OVERFLOW BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF IGNITION FROM LIGHTNING,
BUT, GIVEN THE SEVERE DRYNESS EXPECT THAT MANY FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SUSPECT WE WILL NEED MORE WATCHES FOR THIS TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD.

FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORMS...A TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS WEEK...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALSO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO
CONDITIONS IN WHICH NEW STARTS COULD EXPERIENCE MORE AGGRESSIVE FIRE
BEHAVIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THIS POINT THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WHEN ANY NEW FIRES WILL REALLY GET UP AND GO. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/12Z TAFS...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST HAVE SPREAD
CONSIDERABLY FAR INLAND ACROSS DOUGLAS AND COOS COUNTIES THIS
MORNING, BUT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF INTERSTATE 5. ACROSS
COASTAL COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TODAY. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE CASCADES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODOC, SISKIYOU, AND SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
COUNTIES MAY SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM PDT 20 JULY 2014...
SOME LINGERING ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY. STEEP FRESH SWELL AND WIND WAVES THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD AS A NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL INITIATE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A REDEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD ON THURSDAY
AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 5 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR ORZ625.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR ORZ624.

CA...
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 5 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
  FOR CAZ285.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH 11 AM PDT MONDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
  CAZ284.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ356.

$$

SBN/BTL










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