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000
FXUS66 KMFR 272256
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 50 MILE WIDE NEARLY CONSTANT BAND OF PRECIP THAT
EXTEND FROM PORT ORFORD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ROSEBURG WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE AXIS OF THE JET SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A +100 KT JET. 700 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MIX DOWN
PERIODICALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WITH THE
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A NARROW STRIP OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE JET
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER JET
DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS SECOND JET SHIFTS EAST
BEFORE MAKING IT DOWN TO SOUTHERN OREGON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO A CLOSED LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.EXTENDED TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON TODAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN MANY OF THE
VALLEYS IN THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL, THERE WILL
BE LIGHT RAIN WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS
WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TO A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING AND LOCAL
IFR THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND PUSH THE FRONT INLAND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS.

-BPN/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC
BUILDING TO A STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SURGE UPWARD AGAIN WITH SEAS REACHING A PEAK IN
THE MORNING. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES AT
8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT 10
SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS PERSIST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272256
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE 50 MILE WIDE NEARLY CONSTANT BAND OF PRECIP THAT
EXTEND FROM PORT ORFORD TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ROSEBURG WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE AXIS OF THE JET SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A +100 KT JET. 700 MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MIX DOWN
PERIODICALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE. WITH THE
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO A NARROW STRIP OF THE COAST AS WELL. THE JET
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER JET
DIPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS SECOND JET SHIFTS EAST
BEFORE MAKING IT DOWN TO SOUTHERN OREGON. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
PATTERN EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO A CLOSED LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.EXTENDED TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LONG TERM MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THE
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
BEYOND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THIS STEMS FROM THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS ARE
HAVING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA. THE BEHAVIOR
OF A FEATURE LIKE THIS IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT AN
UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IN THE MT SHASTA AREA, BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
AGAIN PUSHED BACK THE EVENT BY 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT HAVE ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE LOW AND CHANGED THE PROJECTED COURSE.
TAKING THE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW EVENT IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS LIKELY.  THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF A
HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FROM THE FORECAST.  INSTEAD, IT APPEARS THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL TYPE OF SYSTEM, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, AND PUSHING
ONSHORE AS AN OPEN TROUGH.

THEREFORE, THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
INFLOW STILL APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF POPS TO FIT THE NEW FORECAST TRENDS, AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM.

ONE TOPIC THAT STILL BEARS WATCHING WILL BE THE EAST SIDE AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF COLD AIR BECOMING TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS AS THE
WARMER AIR MOVES OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR THIS, BUT IT HAS BEEN AN
ACCOMPANYING FEATURE OF THE WARM FRONT FOR SEVERAL CYCLES. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, AS UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS.
-BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON TODAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN MANY OF THE
VALLEYS IN THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD
HELP, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL, THERE WILL
BE LIGHT RAIN WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IN ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS
WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TO A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING AND LOCAL
IFR THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN A DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND PUSH THE FRONT INLAND WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS.

-BPN/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES INCREASE. SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT. SEAS WILL BECOME CHAOTIC
BUILDING TO A STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SURGE UPWARD AGAIN WITH SEAS REACHING A PEAK IN
THE MORNING. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER PORTION OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A LONG NORTHERLY FETCH, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WAVES AT
8 SECONDS ARE LIKELY TO MIX WITH A DOMINANT FRESH SWELL AT 10
SECONDS WHILE SMALLER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL TRAINS PERSIST.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 271113
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT MAY SEEM TRITE...BUT THANKSGIVING WILL BE WET FOR
SOME...AND DRY FOR OTHERS. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SET UP SHOP
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SPLITTING
THE AREA INTO DRY AND WET. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MEDFORD SHOULD
GENERALLY RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE...WHILE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MEDFORD. THE
MEDFORD AREA ITSELF WILL BE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SOME
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH SO NO SNOW IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED ON TURKEY DAY. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES YET AGAIN TODAY.

TONIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WAVES TO THE
NORTH BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE BEING INVIGORATED AND SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH. ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE RAINFALL
FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY DAY IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...THE SHASTA VALLEY...AND THE
EAST SIDE. WE`VE DECIDED THAT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE INCLUDING HIGHWAY 31
NEAR SUMMER LAKE. 700MB WINDS REACH 50-60KT...AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY TO GENERATE 50MPH
GUSTS AND CAUSE TRAVEL TROUBLES FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES IN THAT
AREA.

SNOW LEVELS BEGIN TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES
IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET...LIKE
CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK...WILL START TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...AND COULD END UP WITH A FOOT OF SNOW BY THE TIME THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FURTHER ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHUT
OFF AS THE COLDER DRIER AIR MASS RUSHES IN. AT THIS POINT...IT
SEEMS THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AT 6000 FEET AND
ABOVE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE 5000 FEET AT HIGHWAY 140 NEAR
LAKE OF THE WOODS...ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. EVEN
LOWER...NEAR SISKIYOU SUMMIT ON I-5...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
SNOW AT ALL.

I MUST NOTE THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE COLLECTIVE
SUITE OF MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF...WHILE
USING MUCH LESS OF THE GFS. THE FIRST SET OF MODELS ARE COLDER
AND DRIER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
BOUNDARY WAVING BACK NORTH AND GENERATING OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN
THERE COULD BE SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON THE EAST SIDE WHERE
LINGERING COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE OVERRUN WITH
MOISTURE. AGAIN...WE`RE NOT SIDING WITH THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS
ESSENTIALLY AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME.

AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY ALL THE
WAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE USING A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND EC IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SUGGESTING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY ATTRIBUTED TO THE GFS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
CONSIDERATIONS. MY GUT FEELING IS THAT THE DRIER EC WILL WIN
OUT...AND PRECIPIATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED MAY BE CUT SHARPLY
DURING THE NEXT SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE... A STRONG INVERSION
CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW IT OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA, WE DO
NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION THROUGH
THE MORNING AS IT WAS THIS PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE DO STILL
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 20Z, IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY BUT ONLY UNTIL 15Z IN THE ROSEBURG AREA. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VFR AND MVFR
CEILING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL
PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY AND
EXPECT INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND
WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE
UPWARD AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND
WIND. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
IN THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. -CC/BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270519
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFFSHORE AND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE COAST WATERS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE COAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE AREA FLUCTUATING IN
POSITION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A VERY MOIST PATTERN TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.

INITIALLY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
TONIGHT. THEN RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST INTO DOUGLAS
COUNTY, INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND INTO PORTIONS OF
JOSEPHINE AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY DURING THE DAY. OF NOTE IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER CURRY COUNTY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE CURRY COUNTY AREA. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
POSITION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, SAGGING SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
BY THURSDAY EVENING WHICH MAY BRING RAIN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT,
FLUCTUATING SLIGHTLY IN POSITION. THEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
A LOW TO THE NORTH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND TOWARDS THE AREA WILL
HELP PUSH THE FRONT INLAND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
CWA.

OF CONCERN IS HOW MUCH SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SATURDAY. MODELS
VARY ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH LOWERED SNOW LEVELS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NAM IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWING MUCH LESS COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF AND SREF SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE SOLUTIONS AND INDICATE
THAT SNOW LEVELS MAY LOWER TO  PASS LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH LOWER PASSES INCLUDING SEXTON SUMMIT POSSIBLY AFFECT BY
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED
OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY AND NORTHERN COOS COUNTY AS WELL AS THE
CHEMULT AREA WHERE LOWER SNOW LEVELS, POSSIBLY DOWN TO 2000 FT,
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN SHOWERS. ALONG WITH THE VARIABILITY IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE COLD AIR AND SNOW LEVELS THERE IS ALSO
VARIABILITY IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THIS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN GENERAL THOUGH
MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS BEING MAINLY LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 1000FT AND 2500FT AGL ON THE MEDFORD
AFTERNOON SOUNDING CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW
IT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING AS IT WAS THIS
PAST MORNING. WE DO STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FROM 03Z
THROUGH 19Z, PARTICULARLY IN THE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND
AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE
WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND WIND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER
FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE UPWARD
AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND WIND.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW
HOURS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE
PART OF HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW
HOURS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE
PART OF HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 1000FT AND 2500FT AGL ON THE MEDFORD
AFTERNOON SOUNDING CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW
IT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING AS IT WAS THIS
PAST MORNING. WE DO STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FROM 03Z
THROUGH 19Z, PARTICULARLY IN THE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND
AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE
WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND WIND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER
FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE UPWARD
AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND WIND.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW
HOURS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE
PART OF HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING
INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 1000FT AND 2500FT AGL ON THE MEDFORD
AFTERNOON SOUNDING CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BELOW
IT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS JUST
ABOVE IT. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING AS IT WAS THIS
PAST MORNING. WE DO STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FROM 03Z
THROUGH 19Z, PARTICULARLY IN THE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND
AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. RAIN WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND THE
WEST SIDE OF OREGON DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014... SOUTH WINDS AND WIND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO A STEEP TO VERY STEEP 10 TO 15 FEET. ANOTHER
FRONTAL WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO SURGE UPWARD
AGAIN. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND WIND.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 262238
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE PART OF
HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A
GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MANY OF THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY,
AND IN SOME CASES, MAY NOT LIFT AT ALL UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS TONIGHT. AS FOR THE FRONT, IT IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER RIDGES, AT THE COAST,
AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND RAIN WILL
ENTER THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE BEFORE THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014...WEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE INTO THIS MORNING. BUT SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 14 FEET WITH SOUTH WIND WAVES AND A SWELL THAT IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH INTO FRIDAY THEN
DIMINISHES BUT THE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT
PERIODS OF RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT ON FRIDAY WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK WINDS TO NORTHERLY WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE WATERS AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER THE NAM SOLUTION OR AS LATE AS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS. THE NORTHERLIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATERS AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED MODERATE
TO HIGH SEAS AS SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES TRANSITION TO A FRESH SOUTHWEST
SWELL THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DOMINANT NORTHERLY WIND WAVES AND
A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT 13 TO 15 SECONDS. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
LIKELY TO APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHIFT
THE COASTAL WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 262238
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN FAVORED LOCATION SUCH AS THE PART OF
HWY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A
GOOD SOUTHWEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO CURRY COUNTY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LYING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK AND FORTH. AS A RESULT
WE WILL SEE MORE OR LESS PROLONGED RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON
AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY, THE KLAMATH AND GOOSE
LAKE BASINS INCLUDED. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PASSES.

ON FRIDAY..ALSO EXPECT MODERATELY SE-NW SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SHASTA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIGHT NOW THE GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
ROGUE VALLEY BUT SOUTH END OF JACKSON COUNTY SUCH AS ASHLAND COULD
SEE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON FRIDAY. MOREOVER WINDS AT 700MB INCREASE
TO AROUND 50KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND PART OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE AND PAISLEY IN LAKE
COUNTY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
OREGON. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHEMULT OR SILVER LAKE. THIS WILL PRESENT A FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR SUNDAY AS WE ARE EXPECTING A WARMER AIR ALOFT
PUSHING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. /FB

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BY ROUGHLY 24
HOURS. THIS HAS PUSHED A POTENTIAL HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS IN
AND AROUND MT SHASTA CITY AWAY FROM THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY OF SUNDAY,
AND INSTEAD IS FOCUSING THE EVENT MORE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE, VERY MOIST
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND OTHER DETAILS REMAINS MUCH LOWER.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STATIONED
WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, BUT A WAVE ORBITING THIS LOW WILL PUSH
A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND THE
EXTENT OF COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE, COULD RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF SNOW OR POTENTIALLY EVEN SOME ICE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST SIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO, BUT IT DOES BARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LOW ITSELF WILL FINALLY PUSH ASHORE
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A VERY RICH
PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA INTO
THE SHASTA HIGHLANDS. THE SAME CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AS YESTERDAY,
FOCUSING ON THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION, AND
THE QUESTION OF HOW FAR WILL SNOW LEVELS DROP IN THAT AREA. SIMILAR
EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY WET SNOW EVENTS IN THE
AREA OF MT SHASTA, AND THE SAME POTENTIAL EXISTS HERE, THUS THIS
EVENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL.

WHATEVER THE RESULTING CHAIN OF EVENTS BRINGS, THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED TERM, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
MANY OF THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY,
AND IN SOME CASES, MAY NOT LIFT AT ALL UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS TONIGHT. AS FOR THE FRONT, IT IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER RIDGES, AT THE COAST,
AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND RAIN WILL
ENTER THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE BEFORE THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014...WEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE INTO THIS MORNING. BUT SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 14 FEET WITH SOUTH WIND WAVES AND A SWELL THAT IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH INTO FRIDAY THEN
DIMINISHES BUT THE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT
PERIODS OF RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT ON FRIDAY WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK WINDS TO NORTHERLY WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE WATERS AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER THE NAM SOLUTION OR AS LATE AS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS. THE NORTHERLIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATERS AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED MODERATE
TO HIGH SEAS AS SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES TRANSITION TO A FRESH SOUTHWEST
SWELL THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DOMINANT NORTHERLY WIND WAVES AND
A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT 13 TO 15 SECONDS. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
LIKELY TO APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHIFT
THE COASTAL WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261654
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FROM
BOTH VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE MARINE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE COOS COUNTY COAST
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. BY THE END OF THANKSGIVING DAY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN AND WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET SO TRAVEL ACROSS
THE MAJOR PASSES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GOOSE
LAKE BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY.

WINDS AT THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRETCH OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE
AREA AND PAISLEY IN OREGON. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS H7 WINDS APPROACHES 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION SOUTH BOUND
TRAFFIC IN THE SHASTA VALLEY COULD ENCOUNTER MODERATELY STRONG
HEADWIND ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REDDING AND
MEDFORD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 5 MB.

WE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE SNOW LEVEL AND TIMING OF THE NEXT EVENT
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR TO LIFR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
NEAR NORTH BEND/KOTH HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED WITH INCREASED MIXING
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL AREAS WILL
BECOME VFR BY NOON PST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND
POSSIBLY THE ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FORM IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AGAIN THIS EVENING THEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN WITH A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014...WEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE INTO THIS MORNING. BUT SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 14 FEET WITH SOUTH WIND WAVES AND A SWELL THAT IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH INTO FRIDAY THEN
DIMINISHES BUT THE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT
PERIODS OF RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT ON FRIDAY WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK WINDS TO NORTHERLY WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE WATERS AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER THE NAM SOLUTION OR AS LATE AS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS. THE NORTHERLIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATERS AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED MODERATE
TO HIGH SEAS AS SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES TRANSITION TO A FRESH SOUTHWEST
SWELL THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DOMINANT NORTHERLY WIND WAVES AND
A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT 13 TO 15 SECONDS. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
LIKELY TO APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHIFT
THE COASTAL WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL IS UPON US...AND WEATHER IMPACTS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCLUDE THE RATHER
TYPICAL LATE-FALL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG. PER
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...FOG THIS MORNING IS FOCUSED IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...COASTAL VALLEYS LIKE THE COQUILLE...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN KLAMATH FALLS AND NEAR YREKA...SO ADDITIONAL CAUTION
SHOULD BE USED WHEN TRAVELING IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. IT IS
LIKELY THAT FOG WILL EXPAND TO OTHER VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 10AM IN MOST PLACES. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY DUE TO BUILDING RIDGING OVERHEAD AND STRONGER
INVERSIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A NARROW BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY TO THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE DURING THE MORNING...THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD TO AFFECT
MOST AREAS IN SOUTHERN OREGON ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY
WAVES NORTH SOME...LIKELY BRINGING THE RAIN BACK NORTH OF MEDFORD
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SNOW LEVELS DURING THESE PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FEET...SO ON THE PLUS SIDE
MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW
PACK WILL NOT BE ENHANCED OR INITIATED IN MOST AREAS. AN
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT NOTE IS ON WINDS...WITH SOLID 50KT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 700MB FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...ONLY EXPECT
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY
WINDS...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINING RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 31 NEAR SUMMER LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTH TO
NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEY. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY FOR THAT AREA TOO.

BACK TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...SIGNIFICANT
UPSTREAM TROUGHING WILL SHOVE THE MAIN RAIN BAND BACK SOUTHWARD ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND IT`S LIKELY THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES
WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE THROWN AN INTERESTING WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAVING BACK NORTH AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME COLD AIR EAST OF THE
CASCADES...COULD YIELD SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS THERE.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SOUTH FLOW WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS
CAN MEAN SNOWS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA.
THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH TAMER...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MINIMAL IMPACTS IN EITHER THE WIND OR SNOW CATEGORY. WE HAVE
BLENDED THE TWO AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HOPEFULLY THIS MODEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AND WE CAN HONE IN ON ANY SUNDAY TRAVEL WEATHER IMPACTS.

FARTHER OUT...THE ECMWF DOES FINALLY BRING IN THE OFFSHORE LOW
MIDWEEK...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SUGGESTS RIDGING MIDWEEK. A
LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A GOOD SPREAD AMONGST MEMBERS BUT
MOST HAVE AT LEAST LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS
WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT
INTO IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING. DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE
WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. -CC/BTL

CLIMATE...A WET FALL THUS FAR HAS MANY LOCATIONS AT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR PRECIPITATION SINCE SEP 1. THE FOLLOWING ARE PERCENT OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR VARIOUS CITIES SINCE SEP 1.

NORTH BEND.........73%
ROSEBURG...........95%
MEDFORD............141%
KLAMATH FALLS......118%
MOUNT SHASTA CITY..127%
ALTURAS............81%

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/DW/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261654
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING FROM
BOTH VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE MARINE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE COOS COUNTY COAST
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. BY THE END OF THANKSGIVING DAY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE KLAMATH BASIN AND WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET SO TRAVEL ACROSS
THE MAJOR PASSES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GOOSE
LAKE BASIN WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY.

WINDS AT THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRETCH OF HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN SUMMER LAKE
AREA AND PAISLEY IN OREGON. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS H7 WINDS APPROACHES 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION SOUTH BOUND
TRAFFIC IN THE SHASTA VALLEY COULD ENCOUNTER MODERATELY STRONG
HEADWIND ON FRIDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN REDDING AND
MEDFORD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 5 MB.

WE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE SNOW LEVEL AND TIMING OF THE NEXT EVENT
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR TO LIFR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST AND IN THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS
NEAR NORTH BEND/KOTH HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED WITH INCREASED MIXING
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ALL AREAS WILL
BECOME VFR BY NOON PST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND
POSSIBLY THE ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FORM IN WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AGAIN THIS EVENING THEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN WITH A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014...WEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE INTO THIS MORNING. BUT SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 10 TO 14 FEET WITH SOUTH WIND WAVES AND A SWELL THAT IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH INTO FRIDAY THEN
DIMINISHES BUT THE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT
PERIODS OF RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT ON FRIDAY WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
THE COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK WINDS TO NORTHERLY WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE WATERS AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON PER THE NAM SOLUTION OR AS LATE AS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS. THE NORTHERLIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATERS AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED MODERATE
TO HIGH SEAS AS SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES TRANSITION TO A FRESH SOUTHWEST
SWELL THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DOMINANT NORTHERLY WIND WAVES AND
A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT 13 TO 15 SECONDS. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN
LIKELY TO APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SHIFT
THE COASTAL WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL IS UPON US...AND WEATHER IMPACTS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCLUDE THE RATHER
TYPICAL LATE-FALL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG. PER
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...FOG THIS MORNING IS FOCUSED IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...COASTAL VALLEYS LIKE THE COQUILLE...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN KLAMATH FALLS AND NEAR YREKA...SO ADDITIONAL CAUTION
SHOULD BE USED WHEN TRAVELING IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. IT IS
LIKELY THAT FOG WILL EXPAND TO OTHER VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 10AM IN MOST PLACES. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY DUE TO BUILDING RIDGING OVERHEAD AND STRONGER
INVERSIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A NARROW BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY TO THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE DURING THE MORNING...THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD TO AFFECT
MOST AREAS IN SOUTHERN OREGON ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY
WAVES NORTH SOME...LIKELY BRINGING THE RAIN BACK NORTH OF MEDFORD
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SNOW LEVELS DURING THESE PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FEET...SO ON THE PLUS SIDE
MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW
PACK WILL NOT BE ENHANCED OR INITIATED IN MOST AREAS. AN
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT NOTE IS ON WINDS...WITH SOLID 50KT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 700MB FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...ONLY EXPECT
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY
WINDS...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINING RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 31 NEAR SUMMER LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTH TO
NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEY. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY FOR THAT AREA TOO.

BACK TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...SIGNIFICANT
UPSTREAM TROUGHING WILL SHOVE THE MAIN RAIN BAND BACK SOUTHWARD ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND IT`S LIKELY THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES
WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE THROWN AN INTERESTING WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAVING BACK NORTH AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME COLD AIR EAST OF THE
CASCADES...COULD YIELD SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS THERE.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SOUTH FLOW WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS
CAN MEAN SNOWS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA.
THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH TAMER...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MINIMAL IMPACTS IN EITHER THE WIND OR SNOW CATEGORY. WE HAVE
BLENDED THE TWO AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HOPEFULLY THIS MODEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AND WE CAN HONE IN ON ANY SUNDAY TRAVEL WEATHER IMPACTS.

FARTHER OUT...THE ECMWF DOES FINALLY BRING IN THE OFFSHORE LOW
MIDWEEK...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SUGGESTS RIDGING MIDWEEK. A
LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A GOOD SPREAD AMONGST MEMBERS BUT
MOST HAVE AT LEAST LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS
WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT
INTO IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING. DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE
WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. -CC/BTL

CLIMATE...A WET FALL THUS FAR HAS MANY LOCATIONS AT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR PRECIPITATION SINCE SEP 1. THE FOLLOWING ARE PERCENT OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR VARIOUS CITIES SINCE SEP 1.

NORTH BEND.........73%
ROSEBURG...........95%
MEDFORD............141%
KLAMATH FALLS......118%
MOUNT SHASTA CITY..127%
ALTURAS............81%

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/DW/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL IS UPON US...AND WEATHER IMPACTS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCLUDE THE RATHER
TYPICAL LATE-FALL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG. PER
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...FOG THIS MORNING IS FOCUSED IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...COASTAL VALLEYS LIKE THE COQUILLE...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN KLAMATH FALLS AND NEAR YREKA...SO ADDITIONAL CAUTION
SHOULD BE USED WHEN TRAVELING IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. IT IS
LIKELY THAT FOG WILL EXPAND TO OTHER VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 10AM IN MOST PLACES. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY DUE TO BUILDING RIDGING OVERHEAD AND STRONGER
INVERSIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A NARROW BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY TO THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE DURING THE MORNING...THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD TO AFFECT
MOST AREAS IN SOUTHERN OREGON ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY
WAVES NORTH SOME...LIKELY BRINGING THE RAIN BACK NORTH OF MEDFORD
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SNOW LEVELS DURING THESE PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FEET...SO ON THE PLUS SIDE
MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW
PACK WILL NOT BE ENHANCED OR INITIATED IN MOST AREAS. AN
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT NOTE IS ON WINDS...WITH SOLID 50KT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 700MB FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...ONLY EXPECT
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY
WINDS...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINING RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 31 NEAR SUMMER LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTH TO
NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEY. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY FOR THAT AREA TOO.

BACK TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...SIGNIFICANT
UPSTREAM TROUGHING WILL SHOVE THE MAIN RAIN BAND BACK SOUTHWARD ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND IT`S LIKELY THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES
WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE THROWN AN INTERESTING WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAVING BACK NORTH AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME COLD AIR EAST OF THE
CASCADES...COULD YIELD SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS THERE.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SOUTH FLOW WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS
CAN MEAN SNOWS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA.
THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH TAMER...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MINIMAL IMPACTS IN EITHER THE WIND OR SNOW CATEGORY. WE HAVE
BLENDED THE TWO AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HOPEFULLY THIS MODEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AND WE CAN HONE IN ON ANY SUNDAY TRAVEL WEATHER IMPACTS.

FARTHER OUT...THE ECMWF DOES FINALLY BRING IN THE OFFSHORE LOW
MIDWEEK...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SUGGESTS RIDGING MIDWEEK. A
LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A GOOD SPREAD AMONGST MEMBERS BUT
MOST HAVE AT LEAST LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS
WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT
INTO IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING. DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE
WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. -CC/BTL


&&

.CLIMATE...A WET FALL THUS FAR HAS MANY LOCATIONS AT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR PRECIPITATION SINCE SEP 1. THE FOLLOWING ARE PERCENT OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR VARIOUS CITIES SINCE SEP 1.

NORTH BEND.........73%
ROSEBURG...........95%
MEDFORD............141%
KLAMATH FALLS......118%
MOUNT SHASTA CITY..127%
ALTURAS............81%

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 AM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...THANKSGIVING DAY TRAVEL IS UPON US...AND WEATHER IMPACTS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCLUDE THE RATHER
TYPICAL LATE-FALL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG. PER
WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS...FOG THIS MORNING IS FOCUSED IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...COASTAL VALLEYS LIKE THE COQUILLE...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN KLAMATH FALLS AND NEAR YREKA...SO ADDITIONAL CAUTION
SHOULD BE USED WHEN TRAVELING IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. IT IS
LIKELY THAT FOG WILL EXPAND TO OTHER VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING BY 10AM IN MOST PLACES. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY DUE TO BUILDING RIDGING OVERHEAD AND STRONGER
INVERSIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A NARROW BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING RAIN INITIALLY TO THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE DURING THE MORNING...THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD TO AFFECT
MOST AREAS IN SOUTHERN OREGON ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY
WAVES NORTH SOME...LIKELY BRINGING THE RAIN BACK NORTH OF MEDFORD
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SNOW LEVELS DURING THESE PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ABOVE 6000 FEET...SO ON THE PLUS SIDE
MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...SNOW
PACK WILL NOT BE ENHANCED OR INITIATED IN MOST AREAS. AN
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT NOTE IS ON WINDS...WITH SOLID 50KT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 700MB FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...ONLY EXPECT
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES TO BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY
WINDS...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINING RELATIVELY
WEAK...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 31 NEAR SUMMER LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVER
HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AND HAVE
INCREASED WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SOUTH TO
NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEY. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY FOR THAT AREA TOO.

BACK TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION CONCERNS...SIGNIFICANT
UPSTREAM TROUGHING WILL SHOVE THE MAIN RAIN BAND BACK SOUTHWARD ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY UNSTABLE AND GENERALLY SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND IT`S LIKELY THAT MOUNTAIN PASSES
WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE THROWN AN INTERESTING WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WAVING BACK NORTH AHEAD OF AN OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME COLD AIR EAST OF THE
CASCADES...COULD YIELD SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS THERE.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SOUTH FLOW WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS
CAN MEAN SNOWS FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNT SHASTA CITY AREA.
THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH TAMER...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MINIMAL IMPACTS IN EITHER THE WIND OR SNOW CATEGORY. WE HAVE
BLENDED THE TWO AND KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HOPEFULLY THIS MODEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AND WE CAN HONE IN ON ANY SUNDAY TRAVEL WEATHER IMPACTS.

FARTHER OUT...THE ECMWF DOES FINALLY BRING IN THE OFFSHORE LOW
MIDWEEK...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SUGGESTS RIDGING MIDWEEK. A
LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A GOOD SPREAD AMONGST MEMBERS BUT
MOST HAVE AT LEAST LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING IN PLACE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS
WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT
INTO IFR CEILINGS DURING THE MORNING. DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE
WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. -CC/BTL


&&

.CLIMATE...A WET FALL THUS FAR HAS MANY LOCATIONS AT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR PRECIPITATION SINCE SEP 1. THE FOLLOWING ARE PERCENT OF
NORMAL VALUES FOR VARIOUS CITIES SINCE SEP 1.

NORTH BEND.........73%
ROSEBURG...........95%
MEDFORD............141%
KLAMATH FALLS......118%
MOUNT SHASTA CITY..127%
ALTURAS............81%

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
     PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 260440
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING INVERSION TO THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER. THE INVERSION WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR HOW LONG
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LAST INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS  FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING OR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL LAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THEN THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE
FOR THANKSGIVING AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING
INLAND ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THOUGH
AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS ON
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED LATE THURSDAY AS IT LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. CURRENT MODELS RUNS PLACE THIS STALLED FRONT
APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY. RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
CURRY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH, ABOVE 7000 FT THURSDAY. THEN
MODELS SHOW A A LOW OR TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
BUT BRING COOLER AIR AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH DEWPOINTS
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE COOS COAST AND
UMPQUA BASIN ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE
VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE COOS COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN EXPECT IFR LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER THE CURRENT VFR CLOUD DECK
DISSIPATES AND/OR LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AND
WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

FIRST, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE COAST COULD SEE RAIN
AROUND DAY BREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FETCH TO THE MOISTURE FLUX AND THIS WEAK TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR CURRY COUNTY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE A BIT ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT SEMI-STATIONARY ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS GENERATING A LOT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THAN THE NAM. I
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT TOWARD CURRY COUNTY FRIDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALIGNED IN A SE-NW ORIENTATION AND
IT COULD BE WINDY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN END OF JACKSON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE WIND SPEED DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. IN ADDITION 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SILVER LAKE AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE AGREEING
THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH WILL LIE JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO
THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH, MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE.
THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW IN OVER CAPE MENDOCINO, STILL
CLOSED OFF, MONDAY EVENING. THE EC SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER, AND BRINGS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE OR/CA STATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS HIGH AS IT REMAINS TO BE, HAVE DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS, WHICH PLACES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN, A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARS LIKELY. THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING, SNOW LEVEL, AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE, REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TERM
WILL HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG CONSIDERATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR MT.
SHASTA ALONG INTERSTATE 5. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN TO RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AREA OF MT SHASTA CITY, AS WELL
AS HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
ON INTERSTATE 5 AND AND SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89, AND THIS
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THAT COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER
HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. ANALOGS FROM PAST STORMS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 4000 FEET, AND WHILE THIS ELEVATION
DEFINITELY IMPACTS THE PASSES/SUMMITS, IT IS ABOVE THE ELEVATION OF
MT SHASTA CITY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WATCH FOR UPDATES. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260440
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING INVERSION TO THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER. THE INVERSION WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR HOW LONG
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LAST INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS  FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING OR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL LAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THEN THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE
FOR THANKSGIVING AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING
INLAND ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THOUGH
AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS ON
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED LATE THURSDAY AS IT LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. CURRENT MODELS RUNS PLACE THIS STALLED FRONT
APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY. RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
CURRY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH, ABOVE 7000 FT THURSDAY. THEN
MODELS SHOW A A LOW OR TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
BUT BRING COOLER AIR AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH DEWPOINTS
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE COOS COAST AND
UMPQUA BASIN ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE
VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE COOS COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN EXPECT IFR LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER THE CURRENT VFR CLOUD DECK
DISSIPATES AND/OR LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AND
WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

FIRST, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE COAST COULD SEE RAIN
AROUND DAY BREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FETCH TO THE MOISTURE FLUX AND THIS WEAK TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR CURRY COUNTY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE A BIT ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT SEMI-STATIONARY ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS GENERATING A LOT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THAN THE NAM. I
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT TOWARD CURRY COUNTY FRIDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALIGNED IN A SE-NW ORIENTATION AND
IT COULD BE WINDY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN END OF JACKSON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE WIND SPEED DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. IN ADDITION 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SILVER LAKE AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE AGREEING
THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH WILL LIE JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO
THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH, MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE.
THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW IN OVER CAPE MENDOCINO, STILL
CLOSED OFF, MONDAY EVENING. THE EC SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER, AND BRINGS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE OR/CA STATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS HIGH AS IT REMAINS TO BE, HAVE DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS, WHICH PLACES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN, A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARS LIKELY. THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING, SNOW LEVEL, AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE, REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TERM
WILL HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG CONSIDERATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR MT.
SHASTA ALONG INTERSTATE 5. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN TO RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AREA OF MT SHASTA CITY, AS WELL
AS HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
ON INTERSTATE 5 AND AND SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89, AND THIS
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THAT COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER
HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. ANALOGS FROM PAST STORMS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 4000 FEET, AND WHILE THIS ELEVATION
DEFINITELY IMPACTS THE PASSES/SUMMITS, IT IS ABOVE THE ELEVATION OF
MT SHASTA CITY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WATCH FOR UPDATES. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 260440
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING INVERSION TO THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER. THE INVERSION WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR HOW LONG
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LAST INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS  FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING OR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL LAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THEN THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE
FOR THANKSGIVING AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING
INLAND ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THOUGH
AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS ON
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED LATE THURSDAY AS IT LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. CURRENT MODELS RUNS PLACE THIS STALLED FRONT
APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY. RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
CURRY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH, ABOVE 7000 FT THURSDAY. THEN
MODELS SHOW A A LOW OR TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
BUT BRING COOLER AIR AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH DEWPOINTS
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE COOS COAST AND
UMPQUA BASIN ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE
VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE COOS COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN EXPECT IFR LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER THE CURRENT VFR CLOUD DECK
DISSIPATES AND/OR LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AND
WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

FIRST, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE COAST COULD SEE RAIN
AROUND DAY BREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FETCH TO THE MOISTURE FLUX AND THIS WEAK TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR CURRY COUNTY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE A BIT ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT SEMI-STATIONARY ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS GENERATING A LOT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THAN THE NAM. I
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT TOWARD CURRY COUNTY FRIDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALIGNED IN A SE-NW ORIENTATION AND
IT COULD BE WINDY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN END OF JACKSON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE WIND SPEED DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. IN ADDITION 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SILVER LAKE AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE AGREEING
THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH WILL LIE JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO
THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH, MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE.
THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW IN OVER CAPE MENDOCINO, STILL
CLOSED OFF, MONDAY EVENING. THE EC SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER, AND BRINGS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE OR/CA STATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS HIGH AS IT REMAINS TO BE, HAVE DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS, WHICH PLACES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN, A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARS LIKELY. THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING, SNOW LEVEL, AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE, REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TERM
WILL HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG CONSIDERATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR MT.
SHASTA ALONG INTERSTATE 5. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN TO RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AREA OF MT SHASTA CITY, AS WELL
AS HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
ON INTERSTATE 5 AND AND SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89, AND THIS
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THAT COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER
HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. ANALOGS FROM PAST STORMS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 4000 FEET, AND WHILE THIS ELEVATION
DEFINITELY IMPACTS THE PASSES/SUMMITS, IT IS ABOVE THE ELEVATION OF
MT SHASTA CITY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WATCH FOR UPDATES. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 260440
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING INVERSION TO THE AREA WITH
DRY WEATHER. THE INVERSION WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR HOW LONG
VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL LAST INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS  FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING OR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS WILL LAST. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THEN THE MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE
FOR THANKSGIVING AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING
INLAND ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THOUGH
AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS ON
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED LATE THURSDAY AS IT LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. CURRENT MODELS RUNS PLACE THIS STALLED FRONT
APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE OREGON CALIFORNIA
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY. RAIN MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
CURRY COUNTY AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGH, ABOVE 7000 FT THURSDAY. THEN
MODELS SHOW A A LOW OR TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY FROM
THE WEST NORTHWEST WHILE THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
BUT BRING COOLER AIR AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE A STRONGER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH DEWPOINTS
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE COOS COAST AND
UMPQUA BASIN ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE
VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE COOS COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN EXPECT IFR LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER THE CURRENT VFR CLOUD DECK
DISSIPATES AND/OR LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AND
WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WIND ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE WIND AND WAVE DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSETTLED. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

FIRST, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE COAST COULD SEE RAIN
AROUND DAY BREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FETCH TO THE MOISTURE FLUX AND THIS WEAK TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR CURRY COUNTY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE A BIT ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT SEMI-STATIONARY ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS GENERATING A LOT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THAN THE NAM. I
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT TOWARD CURRY COUNTY FRIDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALIGNED IN A SE-NW ORIENTATION AND
IT COULD BE WINDY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN END OF JACKSON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE WIND SPEED DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. IN ADDITION 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SILVER LAKE AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE AGREEING
THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH WILL LIE JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO
THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH, MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE.
THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW IN OVER CAPE MENDOCINO, STILL
CLOSED OFF, MONDAY EVENING. THE EC SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER, AND BRINGS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE OR/CA STATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS HIGH AS IT REMAINS TO BE, HAVE DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS, WHICH PLACES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN, A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARS LIKELY. THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING, SNOW LEVEL, AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE, REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TERM
WILL HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG CONSIDERATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR MT.
SHASTA ALONG INTERSTATE 5. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN TO RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AREA OF MT SHASTA CITY, AS WELL
AS HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
ON INTERSTATE 5 AND AND SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89, AND THIS
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THAT COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER
HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. ANALOGS FROM PAST STORMS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 4000 FEET, AND WHILE THIS ELEVATION
DEFINITELY IMPACTS THE PASSES/SUMMITS, IT IS ABOVE THE ELEVATION OF
MT SHASTA CITY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WATCH FOR UPDATES. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260229
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
629 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

FIRST, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE COAST COULD SEE RAIN
AROUND DAY BREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FETCH TO THE MOISTURE FLUX AND THIS WEAK TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR CURRY COUNTY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE A BIT ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT SEMI-STATIONARY ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS GENERATING A LOT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THAN THE NAM. I
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT TOWARD CURRY COUNTY FRIDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALIGNED IN A SE-NW ORIENTATION AND
IT COULD BE WINDY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN END OF JACKSON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE WIND SPEED DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. IN ADDITION 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SILVER LAKE AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. /FB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE AGREEING
THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH WILL LIE JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO
THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH, MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE.
THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW IN OVER CAPE MENDOCINO, STILL
CLOSED OFF, MONDAY EVENING. THE EC SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER, AND BRINGS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE OR/CA STATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS HIGH AS IT REMAINS TO BE, HAVE DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS, WHICH PLACES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN, A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARS LIKELY. THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING, SNOW LEVEL, AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE, REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TERM
WILL HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG CONSIDERATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR MT.
SHASTA ALONG INTERSTATE 5. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN TO RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AREA OF MT SHASTA CITY, AS WELL
AS HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
ON INTERSTATE 5 AND AND SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89, AND THIS
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THAT COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER
HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. ANALOGS FROM PAST STORMS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 4000 FEET, AND WHILE THIS ELEVATION
DEFINITELY IMPACTS THE PASSES/SUMMITS, IT IS ABOVE THE ELEVATION OF
MT SHASTA CITY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WATCH FOR UPDATES. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH DEWPOINTS
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE COOS COAST AND
UMPQUA BASIN ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE
VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE COOS COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN EXPECT IFR LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER THE CURRENT VFR CLOUD DECK
DISSIPATES AND/OR LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO
14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WIND
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE WIND AND WAVE
DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
UNSETTLED. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
  FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
  10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260229
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
629 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT
AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

FIRST, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE COAST COULD SEE RAIN
AROUND DAY BREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FETCH TO THE MOISTURE FLUX AND THIS WEAK TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR CURRY COUNTY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE A BIT ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT SEMI-STATIONARY ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS GENERATING A LOT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THAN THE NAM. I
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT TOWARD CURRY COUNTY FRIDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALIGNED IN A SE-NW ORIENTATION AND
IT COULD BE WINDY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN END OF JACKSON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE WIND SPEED DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. IN ADDITION 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SILVER LAKE AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. /FB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE AGREEING
THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH WILL LIE JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO
THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH, MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE.
THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW IN OVER CAPE MENDOCINO, STILL
CLOSED OFF, MONDAY EVENING. THE EC SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER, AND BRINGS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE OR/CA STATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS HIGH AS IT REMAINS TO BE, HAVE DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS, WHICH PLACES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN, A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARS LIKELY. THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING, SNOW LEVEL, AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE, REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TERM
WILL HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG CONSIDERATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR MT.
SHASTA ALONG INTERSTATE 5. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN TO RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AREA OF MT SHASTA CITY, AS WELL
AS HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
ON INTERSTATE 5 AND AND SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89, AND THIS
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THAT COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER
HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. ANALOGS FROM PAST STORMS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 4000 FEET, AND WHILE THIS ELEVATION
DEFINITELY IMPACTS THE PASSES/SUMMITS, IT IS ABOVE THE ELEVATION OF
MT SHASTA CITY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WATCH FOR UPDATES. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING WINDS
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH DEWPOINTS
THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE COOS COAST AND
UMPQUA BASIN ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO IFR TO LIFR FOG FORMATION IN THE
VALLEYS THAT WILL LIFT INTO IFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR THE COOS COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN EXPECT IFR LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER THE CURRENT VFR CLOUD DECK
DISSIPATES AND/OR LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT, WE DO EXPECT THAT ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY NOON PST
WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ROSEBURG AREA AND POSSIBLY THE
ROGUE VALLEY EAST OF MEDFORD, WHERE IFR COULD HANG ON INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE NOV 26 2014...
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND CHAOTIC...BUILDING TO 10 TO
14 FEET. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WIND
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IN THE WIND AND WAVE
DETAILS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
UNSETTLED. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PST
  FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO
  10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BPN/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 252237
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURE ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW
CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD
SIDE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
OREGON. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHERN TROUGH WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

FIRST, LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SEND AN
OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE COAST COULD SEE RAIN
AROUND DAY BREAK ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD
SOUTHWEST FETCH TO THE MOISTURE FLUX AND THIS WEAK TROUGH COULD
PRODUCE AROUND HALF AN INCH FOR CURRY COUNTY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
DIVERGE A BIT ON WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES INLAND WITH
THE GFS KEEPING THE FRONT SEMI-STATIONARY ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE GFS IS GENERATING A LOT
MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY THAN THE NAM. I
AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY STRONG
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT TOWARD CURRY COUNTY FRIDAY SO CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY, ILLINOIS VALLEY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE FIELD IS ALIGNED IN A SE-NW ORIENTATION AND
IT COULD BE WINDY IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN END OF JACKSON
COUNTY ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE WIND SPEED DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. IN ADDITION 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KNOTS BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SILVER LAKE AREA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. /FB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE AGREEING
THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH WILL LIE JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AS TO
THE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH, MOSTLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND STRENGTH.
THEY ALSO DIFFER IN HOW, WHERE, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE.
THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW IN OVER CAPE MENDOCINO, STILL
CLOSED OFF, MONDAY EVENING. THE EC SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS
SLOWER, AND BRINGS AN OPEN TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY COMING ASHORE ALONG THE OR/CA STATE LINE.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS HIGH AS IT REMAINS TO BE, HAVE DECIDED TO TREND
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS, WHICH PLACES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
UNTIL THEN, A LONG PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEARS LIKELY. THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING, SNOW LEVEL, AND AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE, REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TERM
WILL HOVER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG CONSIDERATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY WEATHER IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR MT.
SHASTA ALONG INTERSTATE 5. THIS PATTERN IS KNOWN TO RESULT IN
RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AREA OF MT SHASTA CITY, AS WELL
AS HEAVY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF
HEAVY WET SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT
ON INTERSTATE 5 AND AND SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 89, AND THIS
COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THAT COINCIDE WITH HEAVIER
HOLIDAY TRAFFIC. ANALOGS FROM PAST STORMS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO SOMEWHERE AROUND 4000 FEET, AND WHILE THIS ELEVATION
DEFINITELY IMPACTS THE PASSES/SUMMITS, IT IS ABOVE THE ELEVATION OF
MT SHASTA CITY, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST SHIFTS. THOSE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WATCH FOR UPDATES. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COAST AND A FEW OF THE
AREA VALLEYS. THIS EVENING...LOW CEILINGS WILL RETURN IN FORCE WITH
EXTENSIVE IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING ALL WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND THE COAST, AND PERHAPS
THE KLAMATH BASIN AS WELL. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014...SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A DIMINISHING WEST SWELL INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST RELATES TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THIS
IS A CHANGE AND THE THIRD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST, WILL WAIT FOR ONE
MORE MODEL RUN AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO DECIDE ON ISSUING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND MORE NOTICEABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO, SEAS MAY BECOME HIGH AND STEEP ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE INCREASING SOUTH WIND WAVES COMBINE WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST SWELL. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES ON THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST
FOR THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NAM REMAINING
STRONGEST THROUGH HOUR 84 OF THE FORECAST. BUT, THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WITH MODERATE TO HIGH AND STEEP WESTERLY SWELL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT AROUND 12 TO 14 SECONDS. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

FJB/BPN/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251706
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
906 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM BUT THIS WILL ALSO PRESENT AVIATION CONCERNS WITH VALLEY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS SHORT TERM CONDITION
WELL. THE WEATHER WILL TURN ACTIVE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE COAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY AND THEN TRY TO
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE MORE DETAILED MODELS
INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A SW FLOW INTO SW OREGON AND
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WILL INCREASE POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET. A LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP TO AROUND 40N 130W SATURDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ZONES. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT CENTRAL OREGON COULD BE
AFFECTED.

WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT CONDITIONS IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY A
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL VFR AS
WELL. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A MOIST AND STABILIZING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTING AND BREAKING UP OF THE
LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO VFR...EXCEPT EXPECTED LINGERING MVFR CIGS
NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS EVENING...LOW CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST AND IN VALLEYS WITH EXTENSIVE IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014...SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A DIMINISHING WEST SWELL INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST RELATES TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THIS
IS A CHANGE AND THE THIRD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST, WILL WAIT FOR ONE
MORE MODEL RUN AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO DECIDE ON ISSUING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND MORE NOTICEABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO, SEAS MAY BECOME HIGH AND STEEP ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE INCREASING SOUTH WIND WAVES COMBINE WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST SWELL. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES ON THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST
FOR THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NAM REMAINING
STRONGEST THROUGH HOUR 84 OF THE FORECAST. BUT, THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WITH MODERATE TO HIGH AND STEEP WESTERLY SWELL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT AROUND 12 TO 14 SECONDS. /DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...25/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER THIS MORNING...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS INLAND WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST
OF THE CASCADES AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN SOME OF
THE WESTERN VALLEYS...WHICH MAY DISRUPT AIR TRAVEL.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND A SHORT WAVE
RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IT
WILL HEAD BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVIER THAN IT WAS WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FROM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE CWA...WELL ABOVE PASS LEVELS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST LATE
THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC
SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH...BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKELY.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST (INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES)...SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT
WHEN MAKING PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST
SIDE...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH
THE GFS AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW
THE FIRST REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON
THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE
KEPT POPS HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT. AT THIS TIME...THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT
ALONG I-5 AROUND MT. SHASTA CITY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS
WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY...I DID PUT
IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG. TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED IN THESE
AREAS. THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING
WITH VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABLY RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251706
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
906 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM BUT THIS WILL ALSO PRESENT AVIATION CONCERNS WITH VALLEY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS SHORT TERM CONDITION
WELL. THE WEATHER WILL TURN ACTIVE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE COAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY AND THEN TRY TO
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE MORE DETAILED MODELS
INDICATE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A SW FLOW INTO SW OREGON AND
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WILL INCREASE POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE AREAS MENTIONED.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET. A LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
IS STILL ON TRACK TO DROP TO AROUND 40N 130W SATURDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ZONES. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT CENTRAL OREGON COULD BE
AFFECTED.

WE WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT CONDITIONS IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME ESPECIALLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY A
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL VFR AS
WELL. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A MOIST AND STABILIZING
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTING AND BREAKING UP OF THE
LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO VFR...EXCEPT EXPECTED LINGERING MVFR CIGS
NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS EVENING...LOW CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AT THE COAST AND IN VALLEYS WITH EXTENSIVE IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014...SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A DIMINISHING WEST SWELL INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST RELATES TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THIS
IS A CHANGE AND THE THIRD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST, WILL WAIT FOR ONE
MORE MODEL RUN AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO DECIDE ON ISSUING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON THEN
INCREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND MORE NOTICEABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO, SEAS MAY BECOME HIGH AND STEEP ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE INCREASING SOUTH WIND WAVES COMBINE WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST SWELL. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES ON THURSDAY. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST
FOR THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NAM REMAINING
STRONGEST THROUGH HOUR 84 OF THE FORECAST. BUT, THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES WITH MODERATE TO HIGH AND STEEP WESTERLY SWELL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AT AROUND 12 TO 14 SECONDS. /DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 102 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...25/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER THIS MORNING...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS INLAND WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST
OF THE CASCADES AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN SOME OF
THE WESTERN VALLEYS...WHICH MAY DISRUPT AIR TRAVEL.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND A SHORT WAVE
RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IT
WILL HEAD BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVIER THAN IT WAS WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FROM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE CWA...WELL ABOVE PASS LEVELS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST LATE
THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC
SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH...BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKELY.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST (INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES)...SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT
WHEN MAKING PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST
SIDE...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH
THE GFS AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW
THE FIRST REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON
THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE
KEPT POPS HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT. AT THIS TIME...THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT
ALONG I-5 AROUND MT. SHASTA CITY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS
WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY...I DID PUT
IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG. TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED IN THESE
AREAS. THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING
WITH VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABLY RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250902
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
102 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER THIS MORNING...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS INLAND WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST
OF THE CASCADES AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN SOME OF
THE WESTERN VALLEYS...WHICH MAY DISRUPT AIR TRAVEL.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND A SHORT WAVE
RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IT
WILL HEAD BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVIER THAN IT WAS WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FROM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE CWA...WELL ABOVE PASS LEVELS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST LATE
THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC
SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH...BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKELY.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST (INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES)...SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT
WHEN MAKING PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST
SIDE...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH
THE GFS AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW
THE FIRST REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON
THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE
KEPT POPS HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT. AT THIS TIME...THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT
ALONG I-5 AROUND MT. SHASTA CITY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS
WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY...I DID PUT
IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG. TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED IN THESE
AREAS. THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING
WITH VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABLY RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/16





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250902
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
102 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE CASCADES. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER THIS MORNING...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS INLAND WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST
OF THE CASCADES AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN SOME OF
THE WESTERN VALLEYS...WHICH MAY DISRUPT AIR TRAVEL.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND A SHORT WAVE
RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ONSHORE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ONSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IT
WILL HEAD BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVIER THAN IT WAS WITH THE COLD FRONT
AS TRANSITORY SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FROM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE CWA...WELL ABOVE PASS LEVELS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST LATE
THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC
SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH...BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKELY.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST (INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES)...SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT
WHEN MAKING PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST
SIDE...BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH
THE GFS AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW
THE FIRST REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON
THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE
KEPT POPS HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT. AT THIS TIME...THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT
ALONG I-5 AROUND MT. SHASTA CITY...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS
WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY...I DID PUT
IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST, THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND INTO THE CASCADES,
INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG. TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED IN THESE
AREAS. THE VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING
WITH VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABLY RETURN TUESDAY EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

15/15/16




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250436
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
836 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...FINALLY SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR NORTH
OF SHADY COVE INTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE
TO HAVE DIFFICULTY SEEING MUCH ON THE RADAR SINCE MOST OF WHAT IS
FALLING WILL BE BELOW THE BEAM. A FEW OF THE RAWS IN DOUGLAS
COUNTY HAVE REPORTED A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO,
BUT STILL HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN THE GAUGES. THE LATEST NAM12 HAS
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. BUT, IT STILL HAS SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE GREATEST
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE NEW 00Z GFS IS SIMILAR IN
ITS PRECIP PLACEMENT. ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING
AT ALL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ANY
PRECIPITATION LEFTOVER TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
UP, THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTS HANG ONTO THE
CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 50S, BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT ALL
SIGNS POINT TO A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD WETTER WEATHER BEGINNING
THANKSGIVING DAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. IFR/LIFR CIGS IN FOG/LOW
CLOUD WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...A RATHER QUIET PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT I FIND IS SUSPECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING REASONS. FIRST, THE SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SECOND, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION.
THIRD, THE RADAR HAS YET TO SHOW ANY RETURNS. AT THE SAME TIME,
500 MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET
DIRECTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. I HAVE DECREASED POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER
IF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.

THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE STORM TRACK REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE AND WE COULD HAVE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THIS COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR ANYONE PLANING ON
TRAVELING OUT OF MEDFORD ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND NOT BREAK OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF
SPECIFIC SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH, BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS IMMINENT.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST
(INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES), SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT WHEN MAKING
PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW THE FIRST
REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON THROUGH THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE KEPT POPS
HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. AT THIS
TIME, THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT ALONG I-5 AROUND
MT. SHASTA CITY, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE
TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE
A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY, I DID PUT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA
AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/SVEN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250436
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
836 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...FINALLY SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR NORTH
OF SHADY COVE INTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE
TO HAVE DIFFICULTY SEEING MUCH ON THE RADAR SINCE MOST OF WHAT IS
FALLING WILL BE BELOW THE BEAM. A FEW OF THE RAWS IN DOUGLAS
COUNTY HAVE REPORTED A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO,
BUT STILL HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN THE GAUGES. THE LATEST NAM12 HAS
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS FOR
TONIGHT. BUT, IT STILL HAS SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND OVER THE CASCADES WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE GREATEST
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE NEW 00Z GFS IS SIMILAR IN
ITS PRECIP PLACEMENT. ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NOTHING
AT ALL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. ANY
PRECIPITATION LEFTOVER TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE CWA SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
UP, THOUGH WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTS HANG ONTO THE
CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS
IN THE 50S, BUT SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT ALL
SIGNS POINT TO A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD WETTER WEATHER BEGINNING
THANKSGIVING DAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. IFR/LIFR CIGS IN FOG/LOW
CLOUD WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014...A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER FRONT INCREASES
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED WEST SWELL TO
BRING  A CHAOTIC MIX OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND WEST
SWELL FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD ON THE
WESTERLY SWELL FOR THE CRAB SEASON PRE-SOAK PERIOD LOOKS TO START AT
AROUND 13 SECONDS AND REMAINS IN THAT RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...A RATHER QUIET PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT I FIND IS SUSPECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING REASONS. FIRST, THE SATELLITE IMAGE IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SECOND, THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION.
THIRD, THE RADAR HAS YET TO SHOW ANY RETURNS. AT THE SAME TIME,
500 MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND GUT FEELING IS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GET
DIRECTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. I HAVE DECREASED POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FURTHER
IF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.

THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE STORM TRACK REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE AND WE COULD HAVE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THIS COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR ANYONE PLANING ON
TRAVELING OUT OF MEDFORD ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND NOT BREAK OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THANKSGIVING DAY AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE. THE MODELS SHOW A FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND
DURING THE DAY. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST RANGE AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MEAN
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 160W WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE U.S. WEST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WET WEATHER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LITTLE LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF
SPECIFIC SYSTEMS WITHIN THIS MEAN TROUGH, BUT A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS IMMINENT.

THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE ALL MAJOR PASSES ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW. IT WILL PROBABLY BE
WET FOR THOSE TRAVELING ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST
(INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PASSES), SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT WHEN MAKING
PLANS. THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE, BUT SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL.

ON SUNDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN ALONG THE COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TAKING UP A POSITION AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND SHOW THE FIRST
REAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON THROUGH THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND INTO THE SHASTA AREA. WHILE I`VE KEPT POPS
HIGH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. AT THIS
TIME, THE SITUATION IS NOT IDEAL FOR A SNOW EVENT ALONG I-5 AROUND
MT. SHASTA CITY, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE TOO HIGH AND THE FLOW IS NOT ALIGNED AS WELL AS WE`D LIKE TO SEE
TO GET SNOW DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE
A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY, I DID PUT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SHASTA
AREA FOR SUNDAY.

SNOW LEVELS DO FINALLY FALL TO PASS LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GONE AT THAT TIME, SO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
 UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/TRW/SVEN




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