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000
FXUS66 KMFR 211150
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN
OREGON AND IS CAUSING FLOODING IMPACTS AT THE COAST...COAST
RANGE...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
RISE...AND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AT
LEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOME PLACES.

RAIN RATES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THIS MORNING...WITH 1 HOUR RATES OF A
THIRD TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF COOS...CURRY...AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.  A WHOPPING 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL NEAR 9 INCHES HAS
OCCURRED AT RED MOUND NEAR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST. IN ADDITION...THE
AFTERNOON BALLOON SOUNDING REGISTERED 1.07 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER WHICH RANKS 7TH FOR DECEMBER SOUNDINGS AND IS 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS IS A VERY JUICY
AIR MASS.

THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THERE WILL HAVE BEEN
ESSENTIALLY 48 HOURS OF 500 KG/MS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE IVT VALUES SUGGEST THIS TYPE OF RAIN EVENT OCCURS
ONLY ONCE IN 5-10 YEARS FOR THE COAST AND CASCADES. IMPACTS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN AT LEAST ONE RIVER...THE EAST FORK OF THE COQUILLE NEAR
SITKUM...OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS LATE LAST NIGHT WHICH PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN COOS COUNTY THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WATCHES COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE AREA FROM THE CASCADES WEST. A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE AT FLSMFR...WITH MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH WATER HAS BEEN
REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 101 AT THE COAST AND HIGHWAY 138 IN THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...WITH ROCKS THE SIZE OF BASKETBALLS FALLING ON HIGHWAY
138 AND BEING REPORTED BY ODOT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TRAVEL ON THESE
ROADS THIS MORNING WILL BE HAZARDOUS...AND DRIVERS NEED TO USE
EXTRA CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT IN THESE AREAS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH AT THIS MOMENT...ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE AT
NPWMFR.

VALLEYS LIKE THE ROGUE HAVE BEEN SHELTERED FROM THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WITH ONLY 0.22 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH DOWNSLOPING
DRYING THE VALLEY OUT COMPARED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. MEDFORD STILL WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM THOUGH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CHRISTMAS EVE COLD UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ARRIVES THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OF THE 24TH...AND BRINGS WITH IT A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET.
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SUGGESTS FOLKS
COULD GO TO SLEEP CHRISTMAS EVE WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR DRY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND WAKE UP TO A FEW INCHES OR
MORE OF THE WHITE STUFF. WE WILL BE WORKING HARD TO FINE-TUNE THIS
FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...AND CONVEY ANY WEATHER MESSAGES
ABOUT THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY EVENT.


&&

.AVIATION...A MOIST PACIFIC JET STREAM REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH LOWERS CIGS/VIS TO
IFR, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST AND OVER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. ALL
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
SHELTERED VALLEYS...BOTH WEST AND EAST SIDE...WITH STRONG WINDS IN
MORE EXPOSED EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS BOTH
SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND WAVE COMPONENT
WILL BE MUCH LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT MODERATE WEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD MAY BRING MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-616-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-618>621.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

NSK/NSK/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 211150
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN
OREGON AND IS CAUSING FLOODING IMPACTS AT THE COAST...COAST
RANGE...CASCADE FOOTHILLS...AND CASCADES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO
RISE...AND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AT
LEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOME PLACES.

RAIN RATES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THIS MORNING...WITH 1 HOUR RATES OF A
THIRD TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF COOS...CURRY...AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.  A WHOPPING 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL NEAR 9 INCHES HAS
OCCURRED AT RED MOUND NEAR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST. IN ADDITION...THE
AFTERNOON BALLOON SOUNDING REGISTERED 1.07 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER WHICH RANKS 7TH FOR DECEMBER SOUNDINGS AND IS 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS IS A VERY JUICY
AIR MASS.

THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THERE WILL HAVE BEEN
ESSENTIALLY 48 HOURS OF 500 KG/MS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE IVT VALUES SUGGEST THIS TYPE OF RAIN EVENT OCCURS
ONLY ONCE IN 5-10 YEARS FOR THE COAST AND CASCADES. IMPACTS THUS FAR
HAVE BEEN AT LEAST ONE RIVER...THE EAST FORK OF THE COQUILLE NEAR
SITKUM...OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS LATE LAST NIGHT WHICH PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN COOS COUNTY THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AREAL FLOOD WATCHES COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE AREA FROM THE CASCADES WEST. A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
FOR THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE AT FLSMFR...WITH MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH WATER HAS BEEN
REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 101 AT THE COAST AND HIGHWAY 138 IN THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...WITH ROCKS THE SIZE OF BASKETBALLS FALLING ON HIGHWAY
138 AND BEING REPORTED BY ODOT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TRAVEL ON THESE
ROADS THIS MORNING WILL BE HAZARDOUS...AND DRIVERS NEED TO USE
EXTRA CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT IN THESE AREAS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH AT THIS MOMENT...ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE AT
NPWMFR.

VALLEYS LIKE THE ROGUE HAVE BEEN SHELTERED FROM THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WITH ONLY 0.22 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH DOWNSLOPING
DRYING THE VALLEY OUT COMPARED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. MEDFORD STILL WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM THOUGH.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CHRISTMAS EVE COLD UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ARRIVES THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OF THE 24TH...AND BRINGS WITH IT A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET.
MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SUGGESTS FOLKS
COULD GO TO SLEEP CHRISTMAS EVE WITH RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR DRY
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND WAKE UP TO A FEW INCHES OR
MORE OF THE WHITE STUFF. WE WILL BE WORKING HARD TO FINE-TUNE THIS
FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS...AND CONVEY ANY WEATHER MESSAGES
ABOUT THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY EVENT.


&&

.AVIATION...A MOIST PACIFIC JET STREAM REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR AND MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH LOWERS CIGS/VIS TO
IFR, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST AND OVER WEST SIDE VALLEYS. ALL
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
SHELTERED VALLEYS...BOTH WEST AND EAST SIDE...WITH STRONG WINDS IN
MORE EXPOSED EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS BOTH
SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND WAVE COMPONENT
WILL BE MUCH LESS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT MODERATE WEST
SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD MAY BRING MODERATE
NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-616-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-618>621.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

NSK/NSK/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 210703
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1103 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SOME UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO REFINE THE FORECAST. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN TO THE QPF, SNOW LEVELS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS. IN
SHORT, PRIMARY CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM,
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE A HIGH END ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE, THUS
FAR. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ONLY JUST
RECENTLY HAVE NOSED ABOVE 7000 FEET. THUS, THE SNOW MELT HAS BEEN
A LITTLE MORE TAME THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THUS FAR.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE 24 HOURS MORE TO GO BEFORE THIS RAIN AND
SNOW CONSOLIDATION AND MELTING PERIOD IS OVER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS RIGHT NOW ARE THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER NEAR TILLER
AND THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE. WE`RE ALSO KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON THE
CHETCO.

RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A COLDER STORM SYSTEM TO FREEZE AND
BEGIN TO REPLENISH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK CHRISTMAS EVEN INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

INCIDENTALLY, WHILE MOST OF THE HYDROLOGY CONCERNS NOW ARE OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS, MOUNT SHASTA CITY IS NOW HAVING ONE OF THE 10
WETTEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD SINCE AT LEAST 1948. IT`S WAS AT 7TH
AT LAST CHECK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 21/06Z TAF CYCLE...
PRIMARILY MVFR AND IFR WITH PLENTY OF TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER TIME BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...
SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING, BUT ARE STILL LARGE ACROSS THE AREA.
WARNING CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED, BUT SEAS SILL REMAIN QUITE
HAZARDOUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-616-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618>621.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/BTL/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 210703
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1103 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SOME UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO REFINE THE FORECAST. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN TO THE QPF, SNOW LEVELS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS. IN
SHORT, PRIMARY CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA ARE HYDROLOGY RELATED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM,
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIVE A HIGH END ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE, THUS
FAR. SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ONLY JUST
RECENTLY HAVE NOSED ABOVE 7000 FEET. THUS, THE SNOW MELT HAS BEEN
A LITTLE MORE TAME THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THUS FAR.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE 24 HOURS MORE TO GO BEFORE THIS RAIN AND
SNOW CONSOLIDATION AND MELTING PERIOD IS OVER.

PRIMARY CONCERNS RIGHT NOW ARE THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER NEAR TILLER
AND THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE. WE`RE ALSO KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON THE
CHETCO.

RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A COLDER STORM SYSTEM TO FREEZE AND
BEGIN TO REPLENISH THE REMAINING SNOWPACK CHRISTMAS EVEN INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.

INCIDENTALLY, WHILE MOST OF THE HYDROLOGY CONCERNS NOW ARE OVER
NORTHWEST SECTIONS, MOUNT SHASTA CITY IS NOW HAVING ONE OF THE 10
WETTEST DECEMBERS ON RECORD SINCE AT LEAST 1948. IT`S WAS AT 7TH
AT LAST CHECK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 21/06Z TAF CYCLE...
PRIMARILY MVFR AND IFR WITH PLENTY OF TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER TIME BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...
SEAS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING, BUT ARE STILL LARGE ACROSS THE AREA.
WARNING CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED, BUT SEAS SILL REMAIN QUITE
HAZARDOUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN


MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-616-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618>621.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/BTL/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 202245
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.


MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 202245
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
245 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAIN IS IMPACTING THE COAST TODAY WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDING INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OR MORE AIMED AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONG
THE COAST HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE COASTAL CURRY COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE COAST.

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE WITH 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING
FROM THE OREGON COAST WESTWARD. AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDES CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT, EXPECT
VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGH
SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER THE INLAND WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.


MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CASCADES WEST. INTEGRATED VERTICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FORECAST BY
THE MODELS SUPPORTS VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH IVT VALUES
FORECAST TO EXCEED 600 KG/MS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 800 KG/MS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. SO HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AROUND 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 140 AND IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.  ALONG THE COAST
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL THAT HAS
ALREADY FALLEN ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
COASTAL AREAS AND FOR AREAS JUST INLAND INTO JOSEPHINE AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ALSO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES, LANDSLIDES OR OTHER
DEBRIS FLOW ON AREA ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS WINDS COMBINE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRING
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREES DOWN.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 60 MPH OR MORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS OUT
FOR SUMMER LAKE AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER IN THE SHASTA VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE VALUES
DECREASING AND 700 MB FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY THEN
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CHANGE TO NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME MODELS INDICATE A FRONT TO
THE NORTH MAY EXTEND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... THE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC. THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM, WITH SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE MOST AREA
PEAKS, BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AS THE
FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE
SEASONALLY TYPICAL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT SHOULD NOT APPROACH VALUES SEEN WITH THE CURRENT WEEKEND
EVENT, BUT MODEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THOSE THINKING OF THE APPROACHING HOLIDAY, YES THERE WILL BE
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS NOT
DROPPING FAR ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AREA COVERAGE UNTIL MOST OF THE
MOISTURE HAS LEFT THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON
ONE`S LOCATION, WITH THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS SEEING ONLY
RAIN, AND WAKING UP TO A WET CHRISTMAS MORNING. NOW THE GOOD NEWS,
FOR THOSE ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF FRESHLY
FALLEN SNOW CHRISTMAS MORNING, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ELEVATION ALSO INCLUDES MANY AREA PASSES,
INCLUDING SISKIYOU SUMMIT, SNOWMAN`S SUMMIT, BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT, AND
ALL OF THE CASCADE PASSES. LAST MINUTE TRAVEL IN THOSE AREAS COULD
BE IMPACTED, SO THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON DOT ROAD
CONDITIONS.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY, ALTHOUGH
SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SWIFT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE
ONSHORE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH PRESSURE USUALLY RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT VALLEY FOG. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY CLEAR THE AREA WOULD BE ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN CLEAR AGREEMENT, NOR DO THEY SHOW A
STRONG FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW, SO HAVE NOT ADDED MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/18Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT VFR
WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY TODAY TO DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z.
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AS BOTH SWELL AND WIND WAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE WIND
WAVE COMPONENT WILL BE MUCH LESS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE AND THUS A SMALL CRAFT FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ023.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 201715
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST
OFF MUCH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, COAST MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND SUNDAY. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE MODERATE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE FURTHER TO 8000 TO 9000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRING FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE
COAST, JUST INLAND TO PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY
AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THE MAIN FLOOD IMPACTS
FOR THESE AREAS ARE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
AND DOUGLAS FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
MOUNTAINS, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE SHASTA
VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING IN MANY OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECT FOR MOST
COAST AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO FOR WINDS
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUMMER LAKE
AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS, MAY NEED TO
INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND MOVE INTO THAT ARE. WILL EVALUATE THIS AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED.
LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET SATURDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT/CC




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 201715
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS WEST-NORTHWEST
OFF MUCH OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, COAST MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TODAY AND SUNDAY. VALLEY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE MODERATE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET OR HIGHER FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND
AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FT EAST OF THE CASCADES. THESE SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE FURTHER TO 8000 TO 9000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH BRING FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY TO THE
COAST, JUST INLAND TO PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE COUNTY, DOUGLAS COUNTY
AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. THE MAIN FLOOD IMPACTS
FOR THESE AREAS ARE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, PONDING ON
ROADWAYS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
COAST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
AND DOUGLAS FOOTHILLS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS INLAND WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, IN THE
MOUNTAINS, FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE SHASTA
VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING IN MANY OF THESE
AREAS THIS MORNING AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECT FOR MOST
COAST AREAS. IN THE MOUNTAINS MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE TO FOR WINDS
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES
ALSO EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SUMMER LAKE
AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS, MAY NEED TO
INCREASE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND MOVE INTO THAT ARE. WILL EVALUATE THIS AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED.
LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET SATURDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 8 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL
BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP
COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT/CC




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE
COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE TO AROUND 9000 FEET
TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT
MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGH TODAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE
COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE TO AROUND 9000 FEET
TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT
MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 201141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
341 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS UNDERWAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF DEEP
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST TO NEARLY 3000 MILES
OFFSHORE...POINTED AT THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COAST...COAST RANGE...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
ABOUT 5500 FEET AND ARE RISING...SO THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS SEAS...HIGH SURF AT THE COAST...AND
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST
SIDE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE...OVER THE PAST
4 RUNS AT LEAST...OF 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES OVER
THE CASCADES AND 4-5 INCHES AT THE COAST. WE HAVE ENSURED THAT THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN THE MOST
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
THE HIGH CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.

SOME CONFIDENCE TOOLS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS THIS
MORNING...WITH IVT VALUES OF 500 KG/M/S FOR 24 HOURS STRAIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THESE IVT...OR INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT...VALUES WHICH SUGGESTS HOW SIGNIFICANT THE MOISTURE IS
OVER THE REGION...ARE PEAKING AT VALUES THAT ONLY OCCUR ONCE EVERY 5-
10 YEARS OVER THE CASCADES...AND ONCE EVERY 2-5 YEARS AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DURATION OF THESE HIGH VALUES MEANS THIS EVENT
COULD EVEN BE MORE SIGNIFICANT.

SO...WITH ALL THAT SAID...HAVE ADDED SOME AREAL FLOOD WATCHES TO
BOTH EASTERN CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTHWARD. THESE ARE IN
ADDITION TO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES THAT COVER THE COAST AND JUST INLAND
AT FFAMFR. THE CONCERNS HERE ARE NOT ONLY FOR
MUDSLIDES...ROCKSLIDES...AND LANDSLIDES...BUT ALSO FOR STREAMS
FLOODING AND URBAN FLOODING WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED AT LEAST. TRAVELING TODAY INTO TOMORROW WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE MAIN STEM
RIVER THAT IS FORECAST TO OVERFLOW ITS BANKS IS THE COQUILLE AT
COQUILLE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE RIVERS CERTAINLY WILL NEAR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST THIS MORNING...SHASTA
VALLEY...WITH A LONG-DURATION GUSTY WIND EVENT EAST OF THE CASCADES
DUE TO CONTINUAL 50KT+ H7 FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THINGS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS SOME...LIKELY
BRINGING MORNING VALLEY FOG BACK TO THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN WILL BE A COLD ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO 3000 FEET ON CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH AMOUNTS TO BE DETERMINED
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. WILL
NO DOUBT SHIFT FOCUS TO THAT ONCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOCAL IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT
TO MODERATE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE IT
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL RISE
TO AROUND 9000 FEET TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT THE COAST AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SURFACE, BUT MAY CONTINUE AT KRBG THROUGH 15Z. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS
GOING EVEN AS SWELL DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE
SWELL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ025-027-617-623-624.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ024-618-621.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ616-619-620.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM PST THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-615.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/NSK/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200423
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
823 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...WON`T BE MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS ON TRACK. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AND LONG PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THAT WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE PACNW OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE CASCADES/CASCADE FOOTHILLS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE WIDELY IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE. EXPECT MANY AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE OUT FOR THE COAST
AND PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH A MAIN STEM RIVER FLOOD WATCH
UP FOR THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE. THESE CAN BE VIEWED AT
FFAMFR. STAY TUNED FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF WATCHES OR UPGRADES
TO WARNINGS. RIGHT NOW, WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH
IN MEDFORD AND AROUND 0.50 OF AN INCH IN KLAMATH FALLS FOR THE
EVENT. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW LEVELS RUNNING 4500 TO 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW DOWN TO THE PASS NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS (HIGHWAY 140) BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE AMOUNTS UP AT THE
RIM AT CRATER LAKE MAY EXCEED A FOOT PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER. THERE IS
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSMFR) UP FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
CASCADES HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW/RAIN.

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE COAST, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING LEVELS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
 PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/TRW/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 200423
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
823 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...WON`T BE MAKING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS ON TRACK. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AND LONG PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE
THAT WILL BE DIRECTED INTO THE PACNW OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE CASCADES/CASCADE FOOTHILLS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE WIDELY IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE. EXPECT MANY AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO AREAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE OUT FOR THE COAST
AND PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH A MAIN STEM RIVER FLOOD WATCH
UP FOR THE COQUILLE AT COQUILLE. THESE CAN BE VIEWED AT
FFAMFR. STAY TUNED FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF WATCHES OR UPGRADES
TO WARNINGS. RIGHT NOW, WE`RE EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH
IN MEDFORD AND AROUND 0.50 OF AN INCH IN KLAMATH FALLS FOR THE
EVENT. LIGHTER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

SNOW LEVELS RUNNING 4500 TO 5000 FEET TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW DOWN TO THE PASS NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS (HIGHWAY 140) BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE AMOUNTS UP AT THE
RIM AT CRATER LAKE MAY EXCEED A FOOT PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER. THERE IS
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSMFR) UP FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
CASCADES HIGHLIGHTING THE SNOW/RAIN.

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY. SEE NPWMFR FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE COAST, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING LEVELS. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM
 PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/CC/TRW/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 200213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIG AND VIS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TO THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT WEST SIDE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
REMAINS STABLE BUT WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS ON
SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 6 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOUTH GALES TO THE WATERS
WHICH WILL KEEP VERY STEEP COMBINED SEAS GOING EVEN AS SWELL
DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODERATE SWELL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY BRING
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE WATERS CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND WAVES. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE
UPPER END OF THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND
DEBRIS FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM,
AND WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW
4000 FEET BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER
THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST
SIDE. THE FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
CHRISTMAS MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM
     THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 192253
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGONCASCADES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. GIVEN
THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF
THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM, AND WILL
DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW 4000 FEET
BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER THE USUAL
PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST SIDE. THE
FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA  BEFORE CHRISTMAS
MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
HAS PUSHED EAST AND VFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT FOR NORTH BEND...ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD TONIGHT AS A STRONG
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 192253
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND BRING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INLAND TO THE NORTH AND A MOIST AIRMASS WITH ONSHORE FLOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HEAVY TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A DEEP MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. MODEL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE 2 TO
4 INCHES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGONCASCADES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. GIVEN
THE SUSTAINED DEEP WESTERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE HAVE GONE TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF
THE MODEL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND INTO
DOUGLAS COUNTY. ALSO HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS
FLOWS ON AREAS ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140.

INITIALLY, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...RISING TO 7000 TO 8000 FT
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 5500 FT ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THEN SATURDAY EVENING, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS OF 7000
TO 9000 FT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH LINGERING COLD AIR OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER PASSES IN THE CASCADES AND FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES EAST OF THE CASCADES. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEAR CRATER LAKE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SNOW LEVELS AND SNOW IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES TO THE AREA RIVERS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS ALSO
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS, LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SHASTA
VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE WIND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST OREGON, AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, AND WHILE THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL AND  KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DRY, SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WITHIN THE SWIFT BELT OF
WESTERLIES JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST,
THE UMPQUA BASIN, AND THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL OTHER
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.

THIS RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH THE RIDGE ASIDE AND MOVE INLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A COLD SYSTEM, AND WILL
DROP SNOW LEVELS OF 8000 TO 9000 FEET ON TUESDAY TO BELOW 4000 FEET
BY EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE, MEANING ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BEGIN AS RAIN, BEFORE GRADUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP AS THE FRONT PASSES, MAINLY OVER THE USUAL
PROBLEM AREAS OF THE COAST, HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EAST SIDE. THE
FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA  BEFORE CHRISTMAS
MORNING, LEAVING ONLY SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS.

RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW SLIGHT, ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS MAY SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVES
AND/OR ONSHORE FLOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
HAS PUSHED EAST AND VFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED. HOWEVER THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WIND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN
TONIGHT FOR NORTH BEND...ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD TONIGHT AS A STRONG
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND IS LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
-PETRUCELLI


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ023-616-617-619-620.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ085-285.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 191736
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
936 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A FRONT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY LIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR 4500 FT AND HIGHER. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. THEN MODELS ARE ON
TRACK WITH AN EXTREMELY WET WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
COAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE GFS AND SREF ARE SHOWING HIGH PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE COAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 4500 TO 5500 FT TONIGHT TO
7000 TO 9000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE CONCERN WITH
SNOW LEVELS IS WHETHER SNOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS WITH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FT SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVER FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE COQUILLE, AND FOR SMALL STREAM
RIVER FLOODING.

ALSO WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE EAST SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HEAVY WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC/CC/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191736
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
936 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...BEHIND A FRONT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY LIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR 4500 FT AND HIGHER. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN PASSES TODAY. THEN MODELS ARE ON
TRACK WITH AN EXTREMELY WET WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
COAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

THE GFS AND SREF ARE SHOWING HIGH PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES OF
1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES MOVING INTO THE COAST WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST
AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM 4500 TO 5500 FT TONIGHT TO
7000 TO 9000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE CONCERN WITH
SNOW LEVELS IS WHETHER SNOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN BELOW 5000 FT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS WITH
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 4500 TO 5000 FT SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RIVER FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE COQUILLE, AND FOR SMALL STREAM
RIVER FLOODING.

ALSO WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE MOUNTAINS, AND INTO THE EAST SIDE AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

RAINFALL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014... ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. HEAVY WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS THIS EVENING.
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

CC/CC/CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 191512
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
712 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUITE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR
THAN THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING IN SHOWERS, WITH MOSTLY OBSCURED HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WITH THE
WARM FRONT, EXPECT PRIMARY MVFR AND IFR TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2014...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR COAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET
AT 18 SECONDS FRIDAY EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN
HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS
SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
  PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
  MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
  PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

BTL/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 191213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
413 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUTIE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR THAN
THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.


&&

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. IT IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF
THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD DROP BY ABOUT 2000
FEET THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WITH
VFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1015 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES ARE DIMINISHING BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH THE WATERS DOMINATED IN THE
MORNING BY A WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A
BUILDING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL AT AROUND 20 SECONDS. THIS LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BECOME DOMINANT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A PEAK AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS ON FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH A
LINGERING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL...BUT THE WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS
BECOMING DOMINANT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

NSK/NSK/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 191213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
413 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SOME MOUNTAIN AND EAST SIDE SNOWFALL AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS MORNING.

MODERATE SNOWFALL IS BEING OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS AT DIAMOND LAKE...AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 97 AT CHEMULT THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
THE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES AND HIGHWAY 97 SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME BEFORE SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
CASCADES AT TIMES TODAY WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COOS AND WESTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING AS SOME STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT THAT WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...SO MOUNTAIN PASSES
SHOULD GET A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVELS BUMP ABOVE 5000 FEET MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...TRAVELERS WANTING TO AVOID SNOWFALL
OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO TRAVEL.
HOWEVER...ALL TRAVELERS IN THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY AT LEAST. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS
WILL BE VERY GUSTY AT THE COAST AND EAST SIDE SATURDAY. 850 MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND MODELS SUGGEST A 7-9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM OTH- ACV...WHICH MAKES GUSTS TO 50 MPH SEEM
VERY REASONABLE. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY WANT TO BUMP THIS UP EVEN
FURTHER IF DATA SUPPORTS THIS. WE INCREASED WINDS NEAR SUMMER LAKE
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 50-70KT 700MB WINDS TRAVERSE THAT AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE INCREASED SHASTA VALLEY WINDS SIMPLY DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN THOUGH THE 700MB
WINDS ARE FROM THE WEST.

THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERS THE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION WELL AT THIS
TIME. LATEST RIVER MODELS SUGGEST THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE
REACHES ACTION STAGE...AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF FUTURE
RUNS INCREASE THIS FURTHER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...WHICH
BASICALLY IS 5 INCHES FOR THE OROGRAPHIC-FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND 5 INCHES FOR THE CASCADES FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH.
INTERESTINGLY...INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT...AN INDICATOR OF HOW
SIGNIFICANT A RAINMAKER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE...TRENDS HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS...BUT STILL ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE MOST
RECENT RUN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL PEAK AT 9000 FEET LATE SUNDAY...AND
MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FALL AS
RAIN...ENTERING THE RIVERS AND STREAMS.  THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD SYSTEM DROPS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EXHIBITS QUTIE DIFFERENT BEHAVIOR THAN
THE LAST SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING SHARPLY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. THIS OF COURSE IS OF
IMPORTANCE TO ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE AREA OR HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.


&&

.AVIATION...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. IT IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF
THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD DROP BY ABOUT 2000
FEET THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WITH
VFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO MVFR UNDER SHOWERS. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1015 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...A COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES ARE DIMINISHING BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH THE WATERS DOMINATED IN THE
MORNING BY A WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH A
BUILDING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL AT AROUND 20 SECONDS. THIS LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BECOME DOMINANT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A PEAK AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS ON FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH A
LINGERING LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL...BUT THE WEST SWELL AT 13 SECONDS
BECOMING DOMINANT.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
     PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

NSK/NSK/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 190532
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
932 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED THROUGH 1 AM. THE PEAK GUST SO FAR AT
WEED OF 46 MPH OCCURRED AT 748 PM. ALSO, ANOTHER UPDATE IS
IMMINENT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS BOOST EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASE IS MAINLY FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS IN CURRY
COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TO A LESSER BUT STILL
NOTEWORTHY EXTENT FOR JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT AROUND
TWO/THIRDS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL NOW AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET IS FORECAST
TO FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET BY THE END OF THE NIGHT THEN BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 4000 FEET AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE WITH NUMEROUS LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 5000 FEET DURING
THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS AT PASS LEVELS OVER
THE CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND THE EAST SIDE PASSES ARE LIKELY TO
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING FRIDAY MORNING.

THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL BE SHORT WITH DANGEROUS HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN OREGON BUILDING TO PEAK BREAKER HEIGHTS
OF AROUND 25 FEET ON FRIDAY EVENING. SURF WILL REMAIN HIGH ON
SATURDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4500 FEET AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE QUICKLY AND
SUBSTANTIALLY...TO AROUND 9000 FEET ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY, STRONGEST AT THE COAST IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR
WEED AND NEAR SILVER LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN CURRY COUNTY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
ELSEWHERE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A
FOCUS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 ON SUNDAY (WHICH INCLUDES EASTERN
DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY). THE SNOW LEVEL ON SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE NEAREST IMPACT ON TRAVEL
LIKELY TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA...HEAVY RAIN INTO MONDAY ACROSS
WILLAMETTE PASS IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY. RIDGING IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING SHOWERS MONDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY ARRIVE
TUESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND TUESDAY. AS IT NEARS, A CLOSE EYE
WILL BE GIVEN TO THE DETAILS OF A FRONT THAT MAY TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS DEEPER/COLDER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. BUT, BOTH INDICATE
SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ABOVE THE MAIN PASSES THEN FALLING AND
PROVIDING UP TO A FEW INCHES OVER THE PASSES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT A POTENT FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL SPREAD INLAND
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...BUT CLEAR TO VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...GALES AND
VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.
HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL BUILD FRIDAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18
SECONDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS
SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SPILDE

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  SATURDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
  HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
  NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/DW/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 190532
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
932 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER
THIS EVENING TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED THROUGH 1 AM. THE PEAK GUST SO FAR AT
WEED OF 46 MPH OCCURRED AT 748 PM. ALSO, ANOTHER UPDATE IS
IMMINENT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS BOOST EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASE IS MAINLY FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS IN CURRY
COUNTY AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TO A LESSER BUT STILL
NOTEWORTHY EXTENT FOR JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES.
AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT AROUND
TWO/THIRDS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL NOW AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET IS FORECAST
TO FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET BY THE END OF THE NIGHT THEN BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 4000 FEET AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE WITH NUMEROUS LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 5000 FEET DURING
THE DAY WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS. SNOW AMOUNTS AT PASS LEVELS OVER
THE CASCADES, SISKIYOUS, AND THE EAST SIDE PASSES ARE LIKELY TO
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING FRIDAY MORNING.

THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL BE SHORT WITH DANGEROUS HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTHERN OREGON BUILDING TO PEAK BREAKER HEIGHTS
OF AROUND 25 FEET ON FRIDAY EVENING. SURF WILL REMAIN HIGH ON
SATURDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4500 FEET AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE QUICKLY AND
SUBSTANTIALLY...TO AROUND 9000 FEET ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY, STRONGEST AT THE COAST IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR
WEED AND NEAR SILVER LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY IN CURRY COUNTY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
ELSEWHERE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO A
FOCUS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 140 ON SUNDAY (WHICH INCLUDES EASTERN
DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY). THE SNOW LEVEL ON SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN AROUND 9000 FEET WITH THE NEAREST IMPACT ON TRAVEL
LIKELY TO BE NORTH OF OUR AREA...HEAVY RAIN INTO MONDAY ACROSS
WILLAMETTE PASS IN EASTERN LANE COUNTY. RIDGING IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN DIMINISHING SHOWERS MONDAY THEN A WEAK FRONT MAY ARRIVE
TUESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND TUESDAY. AS IT NEARS, A CLOSE EYE
WILL BE GIVEN TO THE DETAILS OF A FRONT THAT MAY TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS DEEPER/COLDER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. BUT, BOTH INDICATE
SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ABOVE THE MAIN PASSES THEN FALLING AND
PROVIDING UP TO A FEW INCHES OVER THE PASSES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT A POTENT FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL SPREAD INLAND
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING
OBSCURED. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...BUT CLEAR TO VFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...GALES AND
VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.
HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL BUILD FRIDAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18
SECONDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS
SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SPILDE

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  SATURDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
  HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
  NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/DW/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 190016 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
416 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS ALREADY ON ITS HEELS. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
QUICK-MOVER, THEREFORE WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE KEPT
IN CHECK TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE COAST...COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO PASS LEVEL. AREAS THAT
COULD GET IMPACTED WITH ROAD SNOW INCLUDE HIGHWAY 140 WITH 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE AND 2-4 INCHES NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SISKIYOU SUMMIT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND WE`LL GET
A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT IT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED. OUR ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING.

THIS FRONT HAS A LOT OF JUICE WITH IT AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT THE COAST...COAST RANGE...COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
WEST SIDE VALLEYS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3-6
INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS, 2-3 INCHES IN THE
CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE IVT TRANSPORT
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH A WEST FLOW WILL WORK TO SQUEEZE
OUT EVEN MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE A CONCERN. THIS INCLUDES
HIGHWAY 97 UP TOWARDS CHEMULT WHERE 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO AROUND
9000 FEET LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE COAST AND
HEADLANDS. ALSO 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 40-50
KTS SO GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SUMMER LAKE.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST
AND THUS THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
TUESDAY.

LINGERING SHOWERS FROM A SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MEDFORD CWA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS/EC/DGEX SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
DIVERGE AFTERWARD...MAINLY IN HOW MUCH THEY DIG THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. THE EC SOLUTION SHEARS THE
TROUGH AS IT DIGS...INDUCING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WHICH SUPPORTS OFFSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS/DGEX
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TROUGH INTACT AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOTH
PATTERNS SUPPORT A DRYING TREND OVER THE AREA...BUT THE DRYING
TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW WOULD BE STRONGER WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
-JRS

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT A POTENT FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER CIGS/VIS AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
WEST OF THE CASCADES AS RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CLEAR TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...GALES AND VERY
STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HEAVY
WEST SWELL WILL BUILD FRIDAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18
SECONDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS
SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
  FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  SATURDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
 NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 190016 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
416 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS ALREADY ON ITS HEELS. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
QUICK-MOVER, THEREFORE WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE KEPT
IN CHECK TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE COAST...COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO PASS LEVEL. AREAS THAT
COULD GET IMPACTED WITH ROAD SNOW INCLUDE HIGHWAY 140 WITH 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE AND 2-4 INCHES NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS.
AT THIS TIME WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
SISKIYOU SUMMIT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND WE`LL GET
A BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT IT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED. OUR ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING.

THIS FRONT HAS A LOT OF JUICE WITH IT AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT THE COAST...COAST RANGE...COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
WEST SIDE VALLEYS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3-6
INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS, 2-3 INCHES IN THE
CASCADES AND 1-2 INCHES WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE IVT TRANSPORT
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH A WEST FLOW WILL WORK TO SQUEEZE
OUT EVEN MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES, FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE A CONCERN. THIS INCLUDES
HIGHWAY 97 UP TOWARDS CHEMULT WHERE 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO AROUND
9000 FEET LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE COAST AND
HEADLANDS. ALSO 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 40-50
KTS SO GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SUMMER LAKE.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST
AND THUS THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH.
-PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
TUESDAY.

LINGERING SHOWERS FROM A SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MEDFORD CWA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS/EC/DGEX SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
DIVERGE AFTERWARD...MAINLY IN HOW MUCH THEY DIG THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. THE EC SOLUTION SHEARS THE
TROUGH AS IT DIGS...INDUCING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WHICH SUPPORTS OFFSHORE FLOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS/DGEX
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TROUGH INTACT AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOTH
PATTERNS SUPPORT A DRYING TREND OVER THE AREA...BUT THE DRYING
TREND AND OFFSHORE FLOW WOULD BE STRONGER WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
-JRS

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 19/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT A POTENT FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
BRINGING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER CIGS/VIS AND RAIN WILL
SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN
BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VIS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
WEST OF THE CASCADES AS RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CLEAR TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 415 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014...GALES AND VERY
STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HEAVY
WEST SWELL WILL BUILD FRIDAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18
SECONDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
WILL REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE
WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS
SEAS SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
  FOR ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  SATURDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
 NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAS/MAP/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 182230
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS ALREADY ON IT`S HEALS. THIS FRONT WILL BE A QUICK
MOVER, THEREFORE WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE KEPT IN CHECK
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
THE USUAL SUSPECTS...THE COAST...COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO PASS LEVEL.  AREAS THAT COULD GET
IMPACTED WITH ROAD SNOW INCLUDE HIGHWAY 140 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
AND 2-4 INCHES NEAR CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS. AT THIS TIME WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SIKSIYOU SUMMIT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND WE`LL GET A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. OUR ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

THIS FRONT HAS A LOT OF JUICE WITH IT AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT THE COAST...COAST RANGE...COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 3-6 ALONG
THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS, 2-3 INCHES IN THE CASCADES AND 1-2
IN WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THE IVT TRANSPORT REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH ALONG THE
COAST AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH A WEST
FLOW WILL WORK TO SQUEEZE OUT EVEN MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SNOW
LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE A
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 97 UP TOWARDS CHEMULT WHERE 1-3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
QUICKLY RISE TO AROUND 9000 FEET LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER
THE COAST AND HEADLANDS. ALSO 700MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS SO GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE ALSO
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NEAR SUMMER LAKE.

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST
AND THUS THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH.
-PETRUCELLI

LONG-TERM FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  A BROAD LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WITH GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
TUESDAY.

LINGERING SHOWERS FROM A SUNDAY SYSTEM WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. THE
STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MEDFORD CWA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE GFS/EC/DGEX SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE
AFTERWARD...MAINLY IN HOW MUCH THEY DIG THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES.  THE EC SOLUTION SHEARS THE TROUGH AS IT
DIGS...INDUCING NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WHICH SUPPORTS OFFSHORE FLOW.  MEANWHILE THE GFS/DGEX
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TROUGH INTACT AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  BOTH PATTERNS
SUPPORT A DRYING TREND OVER THE AREA...BUT THE DRYING TREND AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WOULD BE STRONGER WITH THE EC SOLUTION.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING AS OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
-JRS


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/18Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADE
WEST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND LOCAL MVFR VSBYS
TO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CLEAR TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. -JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HEAVY
WEST SWELL WILL BUILD FRIDAY...PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN
HEAVY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES
WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL
LINGER ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS SEAS SUBSIDE AND
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

MAP/MAP/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 181708
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST WESTSIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE
WE`LL SEE THE FOG BURN AROUND NOON. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARE ALREADY AT THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION AND THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR
TODAY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST THIS
EVENING, THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN WE`LL BE
LOOKING AT THIS MORNING IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR PASS LEVEL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXIST. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP
WITH PRECIPITATION FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
FURTHER INLAND EXPECT SOME IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014... SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL THEN BUILD ON
FRIDAY, PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN VERY LARGE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG
WARM FRONT. THERE IS A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT OUT RELATED TO THIS
LARGE SWELL AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE
COAST AS SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WEATHER IS GOING TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE BACK EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING
OFF EAST OF US THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ELSEWHERE. WE EXPECT THIS TO DRY UP LATER
THIS MORNING AS A VERY SHORT LIVED RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARE ALREADY ARRIVING AT THE
COAST, AND RAIN WON`T BE FAR BEHIND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
ONTO THE EAST SIDE TOMORROW MORNING. WE ALL SHOULD GET SOME
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT`S A QUICK MOVER, SO
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK ABNORMAL FOR A DECEMBER FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL, SO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

WE GET A RELATIVE BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD QUICKLY AND DELIVER A HEFTY RAIN STORM OVER
THE WEEKEND. FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-2 IN THE INTERIOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS TO 2-3 INCHES IN THE CASCADES TO 3-5 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
AROUND 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING BUT RISE RAPIDLY TO OVER 9000
FEET BY LATER SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW AT PASS LEVEL
EARLY SATURDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH
SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE PASSES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS.

A LARGE BUT VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL DEFLECT MOST OF THE RAINFALL NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY DIRTY WITH LOTS OF CLOUD MAKING
IT THROUGH TO OUR AREA, HOWEVER.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE MAY SEE SOME COLDER WEATHER IN OUR
AREA AROUND CHRISTMAS THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING A STRONG TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON CHRISTMAS
EVE THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR IN OVER US FROM THE NORTH. IT IS TOO FAR OUT
TO PROVIDE ANY DETAIL ON WHETHER SNOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND TO
WHAT EXTENT, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
IS INCREASING, AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SNOWFALL AT LEAST AT PASS
LEVELS. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ370.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 181708
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
AREAS OF FOG FOR MOST WESTSIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS. COULD NOT RULE
OUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE
WE`LL SEE THE FOG BURN AROUND NOON. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
ARE ALREADY AT THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION AND THUS HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR
TODAY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST THIS
EVENING, THEN MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN WE`LL BE
LOOKING AT THIS MORNING IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR PASS LEVEL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE
VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXIST. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP
WITH PRECIPITATION FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
FURTHER INLAND EXPECT SOME IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014... SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL THEN BUILD ON
FRIDAY, PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN VERY LARGE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES WITH A STRONG
WARM FRONT. THERE IS A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT OUT RELATED TO THIS
LARGE SWELL AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM
FRONT WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE
COAST AS SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WEATHER IS GOING TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE BACK EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING
OFF EAST OF US THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ELSEWHERE. WE EXPECT THIS TO DRY UP LATER
THIS MORNING AS A VERY SHORT LIVED RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARE ALREADY ARRIVING AT THE
COAST, AND RAIN WON`T BE FAR BEHIND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
ONTO THE EAST SIDE TOMORROW MORNING. WE ALL SHOULD GET SOME
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT`S A QUICK MOVER, SO
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK ABNORMAL FOR A DECEMBER FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL, SO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

WE GET A RELATIVE BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD QUICKLY AND DELIVER A HEFTY RAIN STORM OVER
THE WEEKEND. FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-2 IN THE INTERIOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS TO 2-3 INCHES IN THE CASCADES TO 3-5 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
AROUND 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING BUT RISE RAPIDLY TO OVER 9000
FEET BY LATER SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW AT PASS LEVEL
EARLY SATURDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH
SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE PASSES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS.

A LARGE BUT VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL DEFLECT MOST OF THE RAINFALL NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY DIRTY WITH LOTS OF CLOUD MAKING
IT THROUGH TO OUR AREA, HOWEVER.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE MAY SEE SOME COLDER WEATHER IN OUR
AREA AROUND CHRISTMAS THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING A STRONG TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON CHRISTMAS
EVE THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR IN OVER US FROM THE NORTH. IT IS TOO FAR OUT
TO PROVIDE ANY DETAIL ON WHETHER SNOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND TO
WHAT EXTENT, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
IS INCREASING, AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SNOWFALL AT LEAST AT PASS
LEVELS. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ370.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 181446
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
646 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WEATHER IS GOING TO REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE BACK EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS SHIFTING
OFF EAST OF US THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CASCADES
AND IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ELSEWHERE. WE EXPECT THIS TO DRY UP LATER
THIS MORNING AS A VERY SHORT LIVED RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARE ALREADY ARRIVING AT THE
COAST, AND RAIN WON`T BE FAR BEHIND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND
ONTO THE EAST SIDE TOMORROW MORNING. WE ALL SHOULD GET SOME
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT`S A QUICK MOVER, SO
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK ABNORMAL FOR A DECEMBER FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVEL, SO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

WE GET A RELATIVE BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RELOAD QUICKLY AND DELIVER A HEFTY RAIN STORM OVER
THE WEEKEND. FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-2 IN THE INTERIOR
WEST SIDE VALLEYS TO 2-3 INCHES IN THE CASCADES TO 3-5 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT
AROUND 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING BUT RISE RAPIDLY TO OVER 9000
FEET BY LATER SATURDAY. WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW AT PASS LEVEL
EARLY SATURDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH
SNOW LEVELS WELL ABOVE THE PASSES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS.

A LARGE BUT VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL DEFLECT MOST OF THE RAINFALL NORTH OF
OUR AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY DIRTY WITH LOTS OF CLOUD MAKING
IT THROUGH TO OUR AREA, HOWEVER.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE MAY SEE SOME COLDER WEATHER IN OUR
AREA AROUND CHRISTMAS THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL. MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING A STRONG TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON CHRISTMAS
EVE THAT DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
PULLS MUCH COLDER AIR IN OVER US FROM THE NORTH. IT IS TOO FAR OUT
TO PROVIDE ANY DETAIL ON WHETHER SNOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA AND TO
WHAT EXTENT, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY
IS INCREASING, AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SNOWFALL AT LEAST AT PASS
LEVELS. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATES AS
WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 18/06Z TAF CYCLE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS DISORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA UNDER A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED IN THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THIS
LIFR TO IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR CONDITIONS EXIST. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP
WITH PRECIPITATION FROM THIS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.
FURTHER INLAND EXPECT SOME IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014... SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL THEN
BUILD ON FRIDAY, PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET AT 18 SECONDS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL REMAIN VERY
LARGE THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ARRIVES WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT. THERE IS A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT OUT RELATED TO THIS LARGE SWELL AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE COAST AS SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
  NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST
  FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356.
- GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
  PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
  MORNING FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

TRW/BTL





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