Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KMFR 041542
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.

WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUEUTHE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD WILL BURN OFF TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW
STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR
THESE REASONS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL
AGENCIES.

INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THAT WE ARE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN WASHINGTON STATE. THIS HAS IN A SENSE LEAVES US IN A COL
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA.
TODAY WON`T BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE UP. THE NAM SHOWS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING.
THEREFORE THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. MODELS SHOW
WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE
DIRECTION. THE GFS IS SOUTHERLY WHILE THE NAM IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

THE NAM SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH INTO MODOC...KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT WE`LL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. OF NOTE, THE GFS SHOWS MORE
QPF IN NORTHERN CAL AND SOUTHWEST OREGON, BUT THERE`S NO TRIGGER
AND IT`S FAIRLY DRY AT THE MID LEVELS, SO FIND THIS SOLUTION
SUSPECT.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING, THEREFORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST.

THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
AND ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVING INLAND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGHINESS THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ621-623.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ282.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/MAP/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 041542
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
842 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY
STAGNANT PATTERN...IN A COL AREA BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...AND RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES...AND THAT IS
WHERE WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ONE NOTE
IS THE ADDITION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN KLAMATH FALLS TODAY
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HOURLY HRRR MODEL
SHOWS SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
SISKIYOU...SOUTHERN KLAMATH...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND MODOC COUNTIES
FROM ABOUT 4PM-8PM.

WE ARE MAINTAINING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AS IS TYPICAL...ITS NOT A CUT
AND DRY SITUATION FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
THE WATCH IS FOUND AT RFWMFR...AND PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH A
GENERALLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED TODAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN IMPACT-BASED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ROGUEUTHE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST COOLING FOR
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY GRADUAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. NOTE THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MORE THAN 30 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD WILL BURN OFF TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS GENERALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 830 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON`S EAST SIDE.
MID LEVEL DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF MEDICINE LAKE AND NORTH OF SUMMER
LAKE. THIS, TAKEN WITH THE MODEL INSTABILITY AND THE TRACKING OF
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH, WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY, EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES BEGINNING SOMETIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF
INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND
MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW
STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR
THESE REASONS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS DURING THE DAY, AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL
AGENCIES.

INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THAT WE ARE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN WASHINGTON STATE. THIS HAS IN A SENSE LEAVES US IN A COL
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA.
TODAY WON`T BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE UP. THE NAM SHOWS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING.
THEREFORE THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. MODELS SHOW
WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE
DIRECTION. THE GFS IS SOUTHERLY WHILE THE NAM IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

THE NAM SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH INTO MODOC...KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT WE`LL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. OF NOTE, THE GFS SHOWS MORE
QPF IN NORTHERN CAL AND SOUTHWEST OREGON, BUT THERE`S NO TRIGGER
AND IT`S FAIRLY DRY AT THE MID LEVELS, SO FIND THIS SOLUTION
SUSPECT.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING, THEREFORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST.

THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
AND ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVING INLAND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGHINESS THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ621-623.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ282.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

NSK/MAP/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 041019
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
319 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THAT WE ARE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN WASHINGTON STATE. THIS HAS IN A SENSE LEAVES US IN A COL
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SINCE MOVED NORTH OF OUR AREA.
TODAY WON`T BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE UP. THE NAM SHOWS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING.
THEREFORE THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED. MODELS SHOW
WEAK STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE
DIRECTION. THE GFS IS SOUTHERLY WHILE THE NAM IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. EITHER WAY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

THE NAM SHOWS STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTH INTO MODOC...KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT WE`LL BE LOSING DAYTIME HEATING
AND EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE ISOLATED. OF NOTE, THE GFS SHOWS MORE
QPF IN NORTHERN CAL AND SOUTHWEST OREGON, BUT THERE`S NO TRIGGER
AND IT`S FAIRLY DRY AT THE MID LEVELS, SO FIND THIS SOLUTION
SUSPECT.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING, THEREFORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD. STEERING WINDS REMAIN WEAK BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST.

THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
AND ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVING INLAND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGHINESS THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD WILL BURN OFF TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  THE LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE SATURDAY EVENING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS GENERALLY BEYOND
5NM FROM SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AFFECT MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 310 AM PDT SATURDAY 4 JULY 2015...MOISTURE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO
THE WARNER MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES. THERE IS A DRY MID LAYER NORTH OF THAT ARE THAT
SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT
AREAS OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND DUE TO THIS,
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND MOISTURE
INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT LIGHTNING STRIKES
OUTSIDE STORM CORES. THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW STARTS, INITIAL
ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE REASONS, IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE CURRENT WATCHES WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS DURING
THE DAY...AFTER COORDINATING WITH LOCAL AGENCIES.

INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ024-026.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ621-623.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ282.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 040301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...04/00Z NAM IN.

SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES...AND SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOWERS MOVED FROM EAST TO WEST AT A FAIRLY
GOOD CLIP...WHILE THE LAKE COUNTY THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTED SLOWLY
NORTH. THIS SHOWED WHERE THE COL WAS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST AT THIS TIME
OVER FAR EASTERN MODOC COUNTY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE`RE GOING TO
HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF ACTIVITY AROUND THERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING AND A STRONG HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN
BETWEEN IS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS BRINGING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERLIES ARE HITTING A DIFLUENT
AREA/DEFORMATION ZONE AS THEY MOVE INTO OREGON. SO...THE
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED FRIDAY.

ALL OF THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL BE THERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES. MODEL STABILITY INDICES SUPPORT THIS...BUT ALSO
SHOW A STABLE AREA BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION. IT MAY LOOK A
BIT ODD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
HEAD WEST WHILE MODOC COUNTY CONVECTION WILL HEAD EAST. MAY GET
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AS WELL BUT SUPPORT IS WEAKER
THERE. IF THEY DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY...BUT A SHORT WAVE WILL BE IN THE MIX
THEN. THE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT DIFFERENT
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT WEAKER.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...HUMIDITIES WILL
BE HIGHER SO IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL HOTTER.

THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
AND ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFD..WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS
BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW
AS MOVES INLAND. SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR OR
JUST BELOW NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN SIMILAR AREAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE COAST...STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS GENERALLY BEYOND 5NM
FROM SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS AND FOG AFFECTING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY, AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY, MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO THE WARNER MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT, AND
DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT
OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN
DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
WET, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES WOULD BE DRY.
THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF NUMEROUS NEW STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE
STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE REASONS, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AND WILL WATCH THE
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS TO FURTHER REFINE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
        FOR ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
        FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM
        PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 040301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...04/00Z NAM IN.

SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES...AND SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOWERS MOVED FROM EAST TO WEST AT A FAIRLY
GOOD CLIP...WHILE THE LAKE COUNTY THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTED SLOWLY
NORTH. THIS SHOWED WHERE THE COL WAS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST AT THIS TIME
OVER FAR EASTERN MODOC COUNTY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE`RE GOING TO
HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF ACTIVITY AROUND THERE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING AND A STRONG HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN
BETWEEN IS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS BRINGING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERLIES ARE HITTING A DIFLUENT
AREA/DEFORMATION ZONE AS THEY MOVE INTO OREGON. SO...THE
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED FRIDAY.

ALL OF THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL BE THERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES. MODEL STABILITY INDICES SUPPORT THIS...BUT ALSO
SHOW A STABLE AREA BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION. IT MAY LOOK A
BIT ODD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
HEAD WEST WHILE MODOC COUNTY CONVECTION WILL HEAD EAST. MAY GET
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AS WELL BUT SUPPORT IS WEAKER
THERE. IF THEY DO DEVELOP THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY...BUT A SHORT WAVE WILL BE IN THE MIX
THEN. THE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT DIFFERENT
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT WEAKER.

THROUGH ALL THIS...THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...HUMIDITIES WILL
BE HIGHER SO IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL HOTTER.

THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE
AND ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
PATTERN OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
CASCADES...POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFD..WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS
BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW
AS MOVES INLAND. SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR OR
JUST BELOW NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 04/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MAINLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN SIMILAR AREAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE COAST...STRATUS AND FOG
SHOULD CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE GENERAL COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS GENERALLY BEYOND 5NM
FROM SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS AND FOG AFFECTING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY, AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY, MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO THE WARNER MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT, AND
DUE TO THIS, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES, AND MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT
OUR AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN
DRY, AND ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE
WET, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES WOULD BE DRY.
THE DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF NUMEROUS NEW STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE
STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE REASONS, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AND WILL WATCH THE
MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS TO FURTHER REFINE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
        FOR ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
        FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM
        PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 032135
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH A UPPER
LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TODAY...A BAND OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT. THE
GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT OTHER MODELS SHOW MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
WARNERS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT A BAND OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS, EXPECT THAT STRONGER
CELLS MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MODOC
COUNTY AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ALSO SOME SCATTERED
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY,
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO DURING THE EVENING, A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE SISKIYOUS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED ON
SATURDAY AND STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER, WITH
A STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SO EXPECT
RAINFALL TO BE LESS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO
TODAYS STORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODOC AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THEN ON SUNDAY EXPECT SHORTWAVES AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES EAST AS WELL
AS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS SUNDAY
DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THIS EVENT.

THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE AND
ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN
OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW, EXPECT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES,
POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
THOUGH ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AS MOVES INLAND. SO HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMALS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF
CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -MND


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS GENERALLY BEYOND 5NM
FROM SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS AND FOG AFFECTING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /NSK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY, AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY, MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO THE WARNER MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT, AND DUE
TO THIS, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES, AND MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE
EXPECTING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES WOULD BE DRY. THE DRY LOW
LEVELS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW
STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE
REASONS, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, AND WILL WATCH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN.

INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 032135
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
235 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION WITH A UPPER
LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

TODAY...A BAND OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND IS BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS WELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT. THE
GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT OTHER MODELS SHOW MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
WARNERS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT A BAND OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS TO SHIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
GIVEN THE GOOD MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS, EXPECT THAT STRONGER
CELLS MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MODOC
COUNTY AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY. ALSO SOME SCATTERED
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY,
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO DURING THE EVENING, A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE SISKIYOUS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED ON
SATURDAY AND STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER, WITH
A STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SO EXPECT
RAINFALL TO BE LESS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO
TODAYS STORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODOC AREA WHERE MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA. THEN ON SUNDAY EXPECT SHORTWAVES AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES EAST AS WELL
AS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS SUNDAY
DUE TO THE MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THIS EVENT.

THIS PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOISTURE AND
ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE PATTERN
OF SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THIS LOW, EXPECT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES,
POSSIBLY EVEN NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS ARE LEANING TOWARDS BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
THOUGH ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AS MOVES INLAND. SO HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMALS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF
CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -MND


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS GENERALLY BEYOND 5NM
FROM SHORE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS AND FOG AFFECTING MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 6
FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /NSK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY, AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY, MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE TRINITY ALPS TO THE WARNER MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AREAS OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT, AND DUE
TO THIS, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES, AND MOISTURE INFLOW REMAINS AIMED AT OUR AREA. WE ARE
EXPECTING LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN DRY, AND ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WET, ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES WOULD BE DRY. THE DRY LOW
LEVELS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF NUMEROUS NEW
STARTS, INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE STRETCHED THIN. FOR THESE
REASONS, HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, AND WILL WATCH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS TO FURTHER
REFINE THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN.

INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ624-625.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031602
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP
INTO MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS MODOC COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AS WELL AS
EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE BAND OF MOISTURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON. HOWEVER, THE OTHER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
OVERNIGHT SOLUTION BUT THINK THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AS MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS INITIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE BUT
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MODOC AND PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS
AND FOG IN MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SVEN/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 031602
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP
INTO MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AS WELL AS MODOC COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SISKIYOUS AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AS WELL AS
EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE BAND OF MOISTURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON. HOWEVER, THE OTHER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR SHOW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER
OVERNIGHT SOLUTION BUT THINK THERE WILL BE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIFTING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AS MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THESE STORMS INITIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND LIKELY WILL BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE BUT
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MODOC AND PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE
SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND...WITH STRATUS
AND FOG IN MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SVEN/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 031049
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN THESE AREAS BY LATE MORNING. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 330 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.  MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION THIS MORNING THAT WILL REDUCE
SURFACE HEATING. THIS DECREASED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN ACROSS
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.  ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS MAY BE
SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE WET...BUT
THE NUMBER OF STRIKES SHOULD BE ENOUGH THAT THE NUMBER OF STRIKES
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CORE COULD CAUSE A GOOD NUMBER OF STARTS. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 031049
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CAL. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS IT WILL NOT BE AS UNSTABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR NORTHERN CAL, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND
SOUTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF
THE CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH AND THERE`S ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM
EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

SHORTWAVES WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A STRONGER TRIGGER IN
NORTHERN CAL AND COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY.

ON SUNDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL. THE STEERING WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS, SO THEY WILL BE LOW
MOVERS AND WILL TEND TO DRIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF THE ROUGE...ILLINOIS AND SHASTA VALLEY
AND KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND ALSO THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN THESE AREAS BY LATE MORNING. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 330 AM PDT FRIDAY 3 JULY 2015...HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AN INVERSION WILL BRING
CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.  MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION THIS MORNING THAT WILL REDUCE
SURFACE HEATING. THIS DECREASED SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM WESTERN ACROSS
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.  ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS MAY BE
SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. SOME OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE WET...BUT
THE NUMBER OF STRIKES SHOULD BE ENOUGH THAT THE NUMBER OF STRIKES
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CORE COULD CAUSE A GOOD NUMBER OF STARTS. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 030356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE TEMPERATURE AT ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT REACHED 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS ONE DEGREE
SHY OF THE RECORD (108) SET IN 1922. IT APPEARED MOST OF THE DAY
WE`D AT LEAST TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD (OUTPACING YESTERDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES), BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE TO LEVEL OFF. TWO RECORDS WERE SET/TIED TODAY
(PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): MOUNT SHASTA: 99 (99 IN 2013)
AND MONTAGUE: 106 (105 IN 2013).

WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 100 IN MEDFORD EACH AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WERE ABLE TO IGNITE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS
THAT PROMPTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR LARGE HAIL WERE
LOCATED IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...BETWEEN TENNANT AND LAVA BEDS
NATIONAL PARK. VARIOUS LIGHTNING NETWORKS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM
75-150 CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WITH THESE 2 CELLS. SINCE THE STORM
MOTIONS WERE NEGLIGIBLE, THE STORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL
BENEATH THEIR CORES WITH RADAR ESTIMATED AMOUNTS IN THESE
LOCATIONS OF 0.50-2.00 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A
PORTABLE RAWS NEAR ONE STORM GOT 0.26 OF AN INCH, BUT WAS ON THE
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PORTIONS OF MODOC
COUNTY NORTH OF ALTURAS AND ALSO LAKE COUNTY NEAR LAKEVIEW. THESE
SHOULD DWINDLE OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY, SO WE
HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WE SHOULD HAVE A REPEAT ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE
CASCADES AND OVER TO THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS OVER TO
THE MEDICINE LAKE REGION/WEST SIDE OF LAVA BEDS NATIONAL
PARK...AND ALSO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF LAKEVIEW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN THIS EVENING TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE MORNING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -BPN
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ZERO TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. I`VE NUDGED UP FORECAST HIGHS
AT SOME LOCATIONS, TO INCLUDE MEDFORD, WHERE THE HIGH SHOULD END
UP AT ABOUT 110F, GIVE OR TAKE 2 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK
THE RECORD OF 108F SET IN 1922. MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TODAY. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5F COOLER THAN TODAY`S DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
AREAS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHER`S PRIMARILY CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE LASSEN NATIONAL PARK ARE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`VE ALSO SEEN A COUPLE OF CELLS GO UP IN OUR AREA,
ONE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE OTHER WEST OF LAKEVIEW. WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS, THESE HAVE COLLAPSED BEFORE SUFFICIENT
CHARGES DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE DO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE, THESE
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PULSE TYPE, WHICH MEANS THAT
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK, AND THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE AND COLLAPSE WITHIN AND SHORT TIME OF FORMING. SUCH STORMS
CAN PRODUCE BRIEF RAINFALL UNDER THE DOWNDRAFT, BUT ALSO LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR PERIPHERY AND WHEN COLLAPSING. NEW CELLS
MAY FORM OFF OF THE OUTFLOW OF THE INITIAL ONES.

THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDES LOOKS ON
TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED COVERAGE COULD
EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF KLAMATH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY. WE EXPECT STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN OREGON AROUND 10 KNOTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY AND THEN PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S A SUBTLE FEATURES, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME STORMS COULD REACH THE WEST SIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FLOW TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE
SISKIYOUS AND MOISTURE TO BE SUB-PAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
WEST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS AGAIN THIS
EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. AN INVERSION WILL BRING CONTINUED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY AND WILL INCREASE
FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS IS
OVER MODOC BUT EXTENDS TO THE WEST INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EAST. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO
MODOC COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY, EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STORMS MAY BE SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE HEADLINED
FOR THESE STORMS AND WILL CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES FOR THE SATURDAY EVENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
THROUGH SATURDAY, GIVEN A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION, EXPECT
STORMS TO HAVE WETTING RAINS, MAINLY IN THE CORE OF THE STORM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOW
PERIODS OF SOUTH FLOW BRINGING STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
 PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
 FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 030356
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE TEMPERATURE AT ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT REACHED 107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WAS ONE DEGREE
SHY OF THE RECORD (108) SET IN 1922. IT APPEARED MOST OF THE DAY
WE`D AT LEAST TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD (OUTPACING YESTERDAY BY A
FEW DEGREES), BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON CAUSED
THE TEMPERATURE TO LEVEL OFF. TWO RECORDS WERE SET/TIED TODAY
(PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): MOUNT SHASTA: 99 (99 IN 2013)
AND MONTAGUE: 106 (105 IN 2013).

WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 100 IN MEDFORD EACH AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WERE ABLE TO IGNITE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. TWO OF THE STRONGER CELLS
THAT PROMPTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR LARGE HAIL WERE
LOCATED IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...BETWEEN TENNANT AND LAVA BEDS
NATIONAL PARK. VARIOUS LIGHTNING NETWORKS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM
75-150 CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WITH THESE 2 CELLS. SINCE THE STORM
MOTIONS WERE NEGLIGIBLE, THE STORMS PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL
BENEATH THEIR CORES WITH RADAR ESTIMATED AMOUNTS IN THESE
LOCATIONS OF 0.50-2.00 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A
PORTABLE RAWS NEAR ONE STORM GOT 0.26 OF AN INCH, BUT WAS ON THE
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OUT THERE
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PORTIONS OF MODOC
COUNTY NORTH OF ALTURAS AND ALSO LAKE COUNTY NEAR LAKEVIEW. THESE
SHOULD DWINDLE OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY, SO WE
HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WE SHOULD HAVE A REPEAT ON FRIDAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE
CASCADES AND OVER TO THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE STILL PEGGING THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND TRINITY ALPS OVER TO
THE MEDICINE LAKE REGION/WEST SIDE OF LAVA BEDS NATIONAL
PARK...AND ALSO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF LAKEVIEW. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN THIS EVENING TO AREAS NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE MORNING. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. -BPN
-BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ZERO TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. I`VE NUDGED UP FORECAST HIGHS
AT SOME LOCATIONS, TO INCLUDE MEDFORD, WHERE THE HIGH SHOULD END
UP AT ABOUT 110F, GIVE OR TAKE 2 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK
THE RECORD OF 108F SET IN 1922. MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TODAY. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5F COOLER THAN TODAY`S DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
AREAS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHER`S PRIMARILY CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE LASSEN NATIONAL PARK ARE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`VE ALSO SEEN A COUPLE OF CELLS GO UP IN OUR AREA,
ONE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE OTHER WEST OF LAKEVIEW. WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS, THESE HAVE COLLAPSED BEFORE SUFFICIENT
CHARGES DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE DO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE, THESE
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PULSE TYPE, WHICH MEANS THAT
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK, AND THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE AND COLLAPSE WITHIN AND SHORT TIME OF FORMING. SUCH STORMS
CAN PRODUCE BRIEF RAINFALL UNDER THE DOWNDRAFT, BUT ALSO LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR PERIPHERY AND WHEN COLLAPSING. NEW CELLS
MAY FORM OFF OF THE OUTFLOW OF THE INITIAL ONES.

THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDES LOOKS ON
TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED COVERAGE COULD
EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF KLAMATH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY. WE EXPECT STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN OREGON AROUND 10 KNOTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY AND THEN PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S A SUBTLE FEATURES, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME STORMS COULD REACH THE WEST SIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FLOW TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE
SISKIYOUS AND MOISTURE TO BE SUB-PAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
WEST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS AGAIN THIS
EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. AN INVERSION WILL BRING CONTINUED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY AND WILL INCREASE
FURTHER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS IS
OVER MODOC BUT EXTENDS TO THE WEST INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A
MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE
CASCADES EAST. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO
MODOC COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES.

ON SATURDAY, EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STORMS MAY BE SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE HEADLINED
FOR THESE STORMS AND WILL CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES FOR THE SATURDAY EVENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
THROUGH SATURDAY, GIVEN A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION, EXPECT
STORMS TO HAVE WETTING RAINS, MAINLY IN THE CORE OF THE STORM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES
EAST IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES, MAINLY FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOW
PERIODS OF SOUTH FLOW BRINGING STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM
 PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
 FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
 PZZ376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 022215
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
315 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ZERO TO 4 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. I`VE NUDGED UP FORECAST HIGHS
AT SOME LOCATIONS, TO INCLUDED MEDFORD, WHERE THE HIGH SHOULD END
UP AT ABOUT 110F, GIVE OR TAKE 2 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK
THE RECORD OF 108F SET IN 1922. MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TODAY. OF NOTE, GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5F COOLER THAN TODAY`S DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER FOR MOST
AREAS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OTHER`S PRIMARILY CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE LASSEN NATIONAL PARK ARE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE`VE ALSO SEEN A COUPLE OF CELLS GO UP IN OUR AREA,
ONE OVER MOUNT SHASTA AND THE OTHER WEST OF LAKEVIEW. WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING WINDS, THESE HAVE COLLAPSED BEFORE SUFFICIENT
CHARGES DIFFERENTIAL DEVELOPED TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE DO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE, THESE
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PULSE TYPE, WHICH MEANS THAT
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK, AND THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE AND COLLAPSE WITHIN AND SHORT TIME OF FORMING. SUCH STORMS
CAN PRODUCE BRIEF RAINFALL UNDER THE DOWNDRAFT, BUT ALSO LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THEIR PERIPHERY AND WHEN COLLAPSING. NEW CELLS
MAY FORM OFF OF THE OUTFLOW OF THE INITIAL ONES.

THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDES LOOKS ON
TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED COVERAGE COULD
EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF KLAMATH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW
THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY. WE EXPECT STORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN OREGON AROUND 10 KNOTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY AND THEN PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A
MID-LEVEL WAVE INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. IT`S A SUBTLE FEATURES, BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME STORMS COULD REACH THE WEST SIDE ON SUNDAY, BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE FLOW TO BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK ACROSS THE
SISKIYOUS AND MOISTURE TO BE SUB-PAR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH
WEST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

GUIDANCE, OVERALL, HAS INCREASED THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT OVER THE
AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF OF THE COAST PUSHES EASTWARD, PUTTING US IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND, POSSIBLY, SOME WITH WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WE EXPECT THAT THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A
WELCOME COOL DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEST SIDE DOES RUN THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT, THOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE SISKIYOUS AND FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SAME AREAS AGAIN THIS
EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. AN INVERSION WILL BRING CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
POOR RECOVERIES TO MANY RIDGES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.  MOISTURE ALOFT IS INCREASING TODAY AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON  FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES. TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS IS OVER MODOC BUT
EXTENDS TO THE WEST INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT A MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN
EXPECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO MODOC COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES.  ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT A SIMILAR AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS MAY BE
SCATTERED, MAINLY IN MODOC AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE HEADLINED FOR THESE STORMS AND WILL
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENT WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THROUGH SATURDAY, GIVEN A
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION, EXPECT STORMS TO HAVE WETTING RAINS,
MAINLY IN THE CORE OF THE STORM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUING CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CASCADES EAST
IN OREGON AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES,  MAINLY FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOW
PERIODS OF SOUTH FLOW BRINGING STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 021633
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE MARINE WATERS, TO ADD PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE CORNER CREEK
FIRE NEAR DAYVILLE, OREGON OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVES IN THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS THAT WERE BROKEN ACTUALLY HAD BEEN BROKEN
JUST LAST YEAR. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AND SOME A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN AT
MANY LOCATIONS.

OUR FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO ATTEMPT TO NAIL DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FOR FRIDAY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOOK ON TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE COULD EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING AND THE MAXIMUM THREAT FOR STORMS WILL, INSTEAD, END UP
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IN THE TULE LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS KLAMATH
COUNTY. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO WORK ON HONING IN ON THIS BETTER TODAY. FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM MAXIMA HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN. IT DOES STAND TO REASON THAT, AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE STORMS.

ALSO ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT A
GRADUAL 7 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ABOUT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
FRIDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK
WITH THIS FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX
HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED WEDNESDAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 021633
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE MARINE WATERS, TO ADD PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE CORNER CREEK
FIRE NEAR DAYVILLE, OREGON OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVES IN THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS THAT WERE BROKEN ACTUALLY HAD BEEN BROKEN
JUST LAST YEAR. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AND SOME A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN AT
MANY LOCATIONS.

OUR FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO ATTEMPT TO NAIL DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FOR FRIDAY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOOK ON TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE COULD EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING AND THE MAXIMUM THREAT FOR STORMS WILL, INSTEAD, END UP
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IN THE TULE LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS KLAMATH
COUNTY. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO WORK ON HONING IN ON THIS BETTER TODAY. FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM MAXIMA HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN. IT DOES STAND TO REASON THAT, AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE STORMS.

ALSO ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT A
GRADUAL 7 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ABOUT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
FRIDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK
WITH THIS FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX
HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED WEDNESDAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 021633
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE TO ADJUST SKY COVER SLIGHTLY
OVER THE MARINE WATERS, TO ADD PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE CORNER CREEK
FIRE NEAR DAYVILLE, OREGON OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVES IN THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RECORDS THAT WERE BROKEN ACTUALLY HAD BEEN BROKEN
JUST LAST YEAR. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AND SOME A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER. RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN AT
MANY LOCATIONS.

OUR FOCUS TODAY WILL BE TO ATTEMPT TO NAIL DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM
RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FOR FRIDAY
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LOOK ON TRACK. WHILE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES COVERAGE COULD EXCEED ISOLATED COVERAGE IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING AND THE MAXIMUM THREAT FOR STORMS WILL, INSTEAD, END UP
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IN THE TULE LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS KLAMATH
COUNTY. THUS, WITH MIXED SIGNALS, CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW THAT
SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO WORK ON HONING IN ON THIS BETTER TODAY. FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM MAXIMA HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN. IT DOES STAND TO REASON THAT, AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THE STORMS.

ALSO ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT A
GRADUAL 7 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT COOL DOWN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ABOUT TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY
FRIDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK
WITH THIS FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING
FROM RUN TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX
HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR
POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED WEDNESDAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOL DOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
  FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 020950
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOLDOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK WITH THIS
FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING FROM RUN
TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX HEATING...A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR POOR TO
MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/NSK/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 020950
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED OR HAVE BEEN BROKEN
ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT
THE ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, GOOD
ENOUGH TO TIE THE RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER
RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN
PARENTHESES): KLAMATH FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100
(99 IN 2014) AND ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

TODAY MORE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN...AS WE`RE
EXPECTING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR THE
ROGUE...ILLINOIS...KLAMATH RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA
VALLEYS...FOUND AT NPWMFR. WITH ALL THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EXPECTED
ON A TYPICAL 4TH OF JULY...FOLKS SHOULD REALLY PLAN ACCORDINGLY WITH
THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT ILLNESSES.

TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES...AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE IN THAT
AREA. A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING AS THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND THUS THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.

ON FRIDAY A TRIGGER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE NAM12 AND GFS40 MODELS AGREEING ON
GENERAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING. CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. WE HAVEN`T USED SCATTERED WORDING YET BECAUSE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH SHORTWAVE PLACEMENT HASN`T BEEN ROCK
SOLID...BUT IF ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AND LI VALUES NEAR -4...THIS WILL SIGNAL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NUDGE A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY INTO KLAMATH FALLS. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES...AND 850MB
COMPUTED LI VALUES PER THE GFS REMAIN NEGATIVE...SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE TO
GENERALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY THE INSTABILITY
PUSHES NORTH AND EAST...BRINGING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. STEERING FLOW
IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE TO BRING STORMS INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY OR
ANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS FOR THAT MATTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REALLY IS MINIMAL FROM JACKSON
COUNTY EASTWARD.

THE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND PUMPS IN MOISTURE WITH A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN AND THE
LATEST GFS REMARKABLY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN SOME FORM
OR FASHION THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE...TEMPERATURES FINALLY DECREASE TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NO SHARP COOLDOWN EXPECTED
BUT JUST A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND OF TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST
NEAR BROOKINGS WILL CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...THEN RETURN AGAIN
THIS EVENING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES SOUTH OF CRATER LAKE...OVER
SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES...AND OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...A THERMAL TROUGH
NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY 2 JULY 2015...HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE HOTTEST DAY
WILL BE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CURRENT GFS RUN IS A BIT QUICK WITH THIS
FEATURE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...BUT IT HAS BEEN VARYING FROM RUN
TO RUN. IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS PUT IT OVER THE AREA AT MAX HEATING...A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR POOR TO
MODERATE RH RECOVERIES ON THE RIDGES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...MOSTLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/NSK/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 020317
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
817 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT THE ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON, GOOD ENOUGH TO TIE THE
RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE
SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): KLAMATH
FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100 (99 IN 2014) AND
ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO (NEAR MONTAGUE AND CHEMULT),
BUT MOST HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW OVERNIGHT, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT INLAND. IT
SHOULD HANG OUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THEN PEEL BACK
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A
BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIFICS FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. MODEL 850 TEMPS FOR THURSDAY ARE VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A
TOUCH HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY, SO WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RECORDS TO FALL. THE
RECORD HIGH IN MEDFORD FOR JULY 2ND IS 108 SET WAY BACK IN 1922.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
AND PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND
NORTH OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE
TRINITY ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. -BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, SO IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 020317
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
817 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE REACHED 108 DEGREES AT THE ROGUE VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON, GOOD ENOUGH TO TIE THE
RECORD THAT WAS LAST REACHED IN 1942. OTHER RECORD HIGHS THAT WERE
SET/TIED EARLIER TODAY (PREVIOUS RECORD IN PARENTHESES): KLAMATH
FALLS: 98 (97 IN 2014), MOUNT SHASTA: 100 (99 IN 2014) AND
ALTURAS: 101 (101 IN 2014).

I HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. THERE WERE A FEW BUILD-UPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO (NEAR MONTAGUE AND CHEMULT),
BUT MOST HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW OVERNIGHT, SO WE`RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOVEMENT INLAND. IT
SHOULD HANG OUT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THEN PEEL BACK
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE A
BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIFICS FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. MODEL 850 TEMPS FOR THURSDAY ARE VERY SIMILAR OR EVEN A
TOUCH HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY, SO WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RECORDS TO FALL. THE
RECORD HIGH IN MEDFORD FOR JULY 2ND IS 108 SET WAY BACK IN 1922.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
AND PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND
NORTH OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE
TRINITY ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. -BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 815 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, SO IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/BTL/BPN/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 012213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, OS IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

&&

.CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 012213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, OS IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

&&

.CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 012213
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
313 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HOTTER THAN
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. DUE TO HIGHER RECORDS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SOME AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST THEY
HAVE BEEN ALL YEAR, THUS FAR, BUT WILL NOT BREAK RECORDS. RECORDS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CASCADES,
WHERE THE RECORDS ARE LOWER. THE HEAT WILL NOT ABATE MUCH,
HOWEVER, AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AND WE DO EXPECT MORE
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN THEN, IN PART, BECAUSE THE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS ARE LOWER THEN. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS, ROGUE,
AND VALLEYS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT IMPACTING LEVELS.

POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAIN A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, CENTERED
ON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY STORMS COULD BE BRIEFLY SCATTERED IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THE NAM12 INDICATES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
TRIGGERING THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ROBUST
THAN DOES THE GFS40. THE SECOND OF THESE IMPULSE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY APPEARS MORE ROBUST AND IS PRESENT IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN OVER THE OREGON
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE
COULD PUSH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MOSTLY AWAY FROM THAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

OF NOTE, FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, OS IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT MIGHT BE
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, SO
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DUE TO THE
LONG PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS, STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL, BUT OVERALL, SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. -BPN

&&

.CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/CC/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 011751
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1050 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS

.DISCUSSION... AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG
AND STRATUS THIS MORNING IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. THIS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
ARE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WAS OBSERVED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CONTINUES A PROLONGED HOT SPELL ACROSS THE
AREA. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION, BELOW, REGARDING HOW
ANOMALOUSLY JUNE 2015 ENDED UP BEING. BTL

&&

.CLIMATE...THE PAST RECORD FOR WARMEST JUNE IN MEDFORD WAS
DESTROYED BY 4.2 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. CONSIDERING THAT ONLY ONE
DEGREE SEPARATES THE TENTH WARMEST JUNE AND THE SECOND WARMEST
JUNE SINCE 1911...4.2 DEGREES IS AMAZING. 21 DAYS REACHED 90
DEGREES OR GREATER IN JUNE 2015...WITH 5 100-DEGREE DAYS AND 6
DAILY RECORDS BROKEN...INCLUDING THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. AT LEAST 8 OTHER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RECORDED THE HOTTEST JUNE
ON RECORD. NSK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS WILL
CLEAR TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SOME OF THE
BEACHES. THE LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OREGON CASCADES NEAR AND NORTH
OF CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK AND IN SISKIYOU COUNTY NEAR THE TRINITY
ALPS AND SOUTHERN SCOTT AND SHASTA VALLEYS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT, WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY 2015... A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN LATE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
STEEPEST SEAS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM
OFFSHORE...WHERE GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AND VERY STEEP SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...JUNE HAS ENDED...SEE CLIMATE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
DETAILS ON RECORD JUNE HEAT...AND JULY HAS PICKED UP WHERE JUNE
LEFT OFF WITH RECORD HEAT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS NUDGING CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BRINGING
WITH IT WIDESPREAD 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...FROM THE UMPQUA BASIN
TO THE ILLINOIS AND ROGUE VALLEYS...AND DOWN INTO THE KLAMATH
RIVER...SCOTT...AND SHASTA VALLEYS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE VALLEYS AT NPWMFR. EVEN THOUGH WE`VE ALREADY
HAD 2 HEAT ADVISORIES THIS SUMMER...THE CURRENT EPISODE IS
HISTORICALLY SIGNIFICANT. WITH YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
103...WE ARE ON PACE TO REACH 103 5 DAYS IN A ROW. THIS HAS ONLY
HAPPENED 7 TIMES BEFORE...SINCE 1911. THIS PLACES THE RETURN
INTERVAL FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT AT ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS OR SO.
PLEASE TRY TO HEED THE GUIDELINES FOR STAYING SAFE IN THE
HEAT...AND PASS THE WORD ALONG.

THE HEAT SHOULD PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE 595DM RIDGE
BASICALLY TAKES RESIDENCE OVERHEAD...OR JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA...THUS KEEPING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY...AND MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT WAS TEMPTING TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY...BUT A BROAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY AND ALL MODELS...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS LIKE THE CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE.

TOMORROW...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRIGGER...BUT MOISTURE IN
THE 500MB-700MB RANGE IS INCREASING...AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. SO WE
HAVE A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.

CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY AND MORESO ON SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
ORIENTATION TO ALLOW FOR A FETCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE SIERRAS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WE FOCUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FRIDAY...AND THEN EXPAND THIS AREA
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...AND THEN FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN OREGON. IF MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE...WE WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OF NOTE ARE THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...REACHING 1.3
INCHES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ON SUNDAY...THAT SUGGEST HEAVY
RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS THIS WEEKEND.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TREND
TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES DIP
BELOW THE CENTURY MARK FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE FOR MEDFORD ACTUALLY SHOWS NORMAL TEMPERATURES (86 FOR A
HIGH) NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE COOLING
TREND...BUT ALSO SHOWS TEMPERATURES DECREASING. LOOKING AT THE
500MB GFS ENSEMBLE PLOT FOR WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...WITH SOME UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS GIVES US AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
WE`RE IN FOR CLOSER-TO-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
  PZZ376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
  SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/NSK/JRS




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities