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000
FXUS66 KMFR 160435
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
924 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND TOMORROW
STILL LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS
EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PUSHING EAST OF
OREGON AND CALIFORNIA WHILE A TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS. AS A RESULT, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AROUND 8 PM. THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AREA FROM MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES INTO HARNEY COUNTY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. BUT, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. ANY STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OFFSHORE TO EXTEND INTO OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL START A COOLING TREND AND RESULT IN
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

THE COOLING WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF INTERSTATE 5. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE 12Z GFS AND
SREF ALSO SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY TO
THE VICINITY OF CRATER LAKE.  ANOTHER RESULT OF THE FRONT WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RESULT WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
AREA, INCLUDING THE EAST SIDE. ALL-IN-ALL THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER WITH FEW AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH AND MANY INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY A SMATTERING OF
VIRGA AND SPRINKLES.

A STRONG MARINE PUSH WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
ABOVE THE READINGS OF THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT`S SUITE OF MODEL DATA WAS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
12Z GFS EACH TRENDED TOWARD THE OTHER AND HAVE ALLOWED CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE LEVEL.
THE MAIN SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT WAS ON THE TRACK OF THE BROAD
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAD BEEN VERY PROGRESSIVE
AND INDICATED MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGING FOR THE WEST COAST, WHILE
THE ECMWF RETROGRADED AND CUT OFF THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE NEW, FAVORED SOLUTION RETROGRADES THE LOW FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND UTAH
AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/18Z TAF CYCLE...
AT THE COAST- LOCALLY PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE HUGGING THE COAST AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIG/VIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE AS LOW AT THE AIR FIELDS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. AREAS OF MOSTLY VFR SMOKE
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. SMOKE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL- IN
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE- NEAR THE FIRE POINT SOURCES NEAR HAPPY CAMP
AND ONION MOUNTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THEM. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MON 15 SEP 2014...
A WEAK LOW JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
PEAK LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST LOW...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOUTH WINDS
WILL PEAK AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND LOW. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN
REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LOWER THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  SK/BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/MND/BTL











000
FXUS66 KMFR 160435
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
924 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND TOMORROW
STILL LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS
EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PUSHING EAST OF
OREGON AND CALIFORNIA WHILE A TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER THE OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS. AS A RESULT, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AROUND 8 PM. THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AREA FROM MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES INTO HARNEY COUNTY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. BUT, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. ANY STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OFFSHORE TO EXTEND INTO OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL START A COOLING TREND AND RESULT IN
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

THE COOLING WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF INTERSTATE 5. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE 12Z GFS AND
SREF ALSO SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY TO
THE VICINITY OF CRATER LAKE.  ANOTHER RESULT OF THE FRONT WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RESULT WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
AREA, INCLUDING THE EAST SIDE. ALL-IN-ALL THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER WITH FEW AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH AND MANY INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY A SMATTERING OF
VIRGA AND SPRINKLES.

A STRONG MARINE PUSH WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
ABOVE THE READINGS OF THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT`S SUITE OF MODEL DATA WAS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
12Z GFS EACH TRENDED TOWARD THE OTHER AND HAVE ALLOWED CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE LEVEL.
THE MAIN SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT WAS ON THE TRACK OF THE BROAD
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAD BEEN VERY PROGRESSIVE
AND INDICATED MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGING FOR THE WEST COAST, WHILE
THE ECMWF RETROGRADED AND CUT OFF THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE NEW, FAVORED SOLUTION RETROGRADES THE LOW FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND UTAH
AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/18Z TAF CYCLE...
AT THE COAST- LOCALLY PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE HUGGING THE COAST AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIG/VIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE AS LOW AT THE AIR FIELDS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. AREAS OF MOSTLY VFR SMOKE
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. SMOKE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL- IN
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE- NEAR THE FIRE POINT SOURCES NEAR HAPPY CAMP
AND ONION MOUNTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THEM. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MON 15 SEP 2014...
A WEAK LOW JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
PEAK LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST LOW...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOUTH WINDS
WILL PEAK AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND LOW. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN
REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LOWER THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  SK/BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/MND/BTL










000
FXUS66 KMFR 152219
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
319 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PUSHING EAST OF OREGON AND
CALIFORNIA WHILE A TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER THE OREGON OFFSHORE
WATERS. AS A RESULT, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE WITH
PEAK GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND 8
PM. THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS PRIMARILY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE AREA FROM MODOC AND LAKE COUNTIES INTO
HARNEY COUNTY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
BUT, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. ANY STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OFFSHORE TO EXTEND INTO OREGON ON TUESDAY. THIS
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL START A COOLING TREND AND RESULT IN
BREEZY AFTERNOON SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

THE COOLING WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST
OF INTERSTATE 5. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED IN THE 12Z GFS AND
SREF ALSO SUPPORTS CONTINUING THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY TO
THE VICINITY OF CRATER LAKE.  ANOTHER RESULT OF THE FRONT WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RESULT WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
AREA, INCLUDING THE EAST SIDE. ALL-IN-ALL THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER WITH FEW AREAS RECEIVING MORE THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH AND MANY INLAND AREAS RECEIVING ONLY A SMATTERING OF
VIRGA AND SPRINKLES.

A STRONG MARINE PUSH WILL FOLLOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE COAST INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING
ABOVE THE READINGS OF THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT`S SUITE OF MODEL DATA WAS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z ECMWF AND
12Z GFS EACH TRENDED TOWARD THE OTHER AND HAVE ALLOWED CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE LEVEL.
THE MAIN SOURCE OF DISAGREEMENT WAS ON THE TRACK OF THE BROAD
UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE OVER OUR AREA ON THURSDAY THEN TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HAD BEEN VERY PROGRESSIVE
AND INDICATED MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGING FOR THE WEST COAST, WHILE
THE ECMWF RETROGRADED AND CUT OFF THE LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE NEW, FAVORED SOLUTION RETROGRADES THE LOW FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF SAN DIEGO. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND UTAH
AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND DURING THE WEEKEND THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/18Z TAF CYCLE...
AT THE COAST- LOCALLY PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE HUGGING THE COAST AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIG/VIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE AS LOW AT THE AIR FIELDS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. AREAS OF MOSTLY VFR SMOKE
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. SMOKE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL- IN
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE- NEAR THE FIRE POINT SOURCES NEAR HAPPY CAMP
AND ONION MOUNTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THEM. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MON 15 SEP 2014...
A WEAK LOW JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
PEAK LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST LOW...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOUTH WINDS
WILL PEAK AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND LOW. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN
REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LOWER THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  SK/BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/MND/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 151851
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1151 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS
HAVE EACH TRENDED WEAKER WITH CASCADE INSTABILITY. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT CURRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BUT, THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE UNDER A STABLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE/MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING
ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FOCUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST DATA. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND SECONDARILY INTO JOSEPHINE
AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES DURING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH A
DECREASE OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH LEVEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NEVADA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA THAT COULD EXTEND INTO OUR AREA.


&&


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/18Z TAF CYCLE...
AT THE COAST- LOCALLY PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE HUGGING THE COAST AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIG/VIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE AS LOW AT THE AIR FIELDS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. AREAS OF MOSTLY VFR SMOKE
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. SMOKE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL- IN
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE- NEAR THE FIRE POINT SOURCES NEAR HAPPY CAMP
AND ONION MOUNTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THEM. BTL


&&


.MARINE...UPDATED 1150 AM PDT SUN 15 SEP 2014...
A WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS MAINLY FROM NORTH BEND NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND
MIXED WEST AND SOUTH SWELL. STEEP SEAS REACHING 7 TO 8 FT ARE
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...WITH
WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  BTL/CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS AHEAD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXTREME DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N/131W STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH
OF CRATER LAKE. HOWEVER IT SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN LAKE AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, THEREFORE EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE PATH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FACT IT`S NEGATIVELY TILTED IS A CONCERN FOR ME AND
DESPITE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 140W WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND NOT
MUCH IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES
INLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SO THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL FEEL THAT THE EASTSIDE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ALSO OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

OF NOTE, THE EC SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO THE EC SHOWS QPF BREAKING
OUT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVES THE LOW INTO ARIZONA. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF OR WHEN
THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/BTL/MND











000
FXUS66 KMFR 151851
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1151 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS
HAVE EACH TRENDED WEAKER WITH CASCADE INSTABILITY. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT CURRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BUT, THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE UNDER A STABLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE/MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING
ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FOCUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST DATA. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND SECONDARILY INTO JOSEPHINE
AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES DURING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH A
DECREASE OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH LEVEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NEVADA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA THAT COULD EXTEND INTO OUR AREA.


&&


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/18Z TAF CYCLE...
AT THE COAST- LOCALLY PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE HUGGING THE COAST AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIG/VIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE AS LOW AT THE AIR FIELDS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. AREAS OF MOSTLY VFR SMOKE
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. SMOKE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL- IN
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE- NEAR THE FIRE POINT SOURCES NEAR HAPPY CAMP
AND ONION MOUNTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THEM. BTL


&&


.MARINE...UPDATED 1150 AM PDT SUN 15 SEP 2014...
A WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS MAINLY FROM NORTH BEND NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND
MIXED WEST AND SOUTH SWELL. STEEP SEAS REACHING 7 TO 8 FT ARE
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...WITH
WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  BTL/CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS AHEAD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXTREME DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N/131W STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH
OF CRATER LAKE. HOWEVER IT SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN LAKE AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, THEREFORE EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE PATH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FACT IT`S NEGATIVELY TILTED IS A CONCERN FOR ME AND
DESPITE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 140W WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND NOT
MUCH IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES
INLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SO THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL FEEL THAT THE EASTSIDE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ALSO OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

OF NOTE, THE EC SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO THE EC SHOWS QPF BREAKING
OUT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVES THE LOW INTO ARIZONA. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF OR WHEN
THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/BTL/MND












000
FXUS66 KMFR 151851
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS
HAVE EACH TRENDED WEAKER WITH CASCADE INSTABILITY. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT CURRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BUT, THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE UNDER A STABLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE/MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING
ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FOCUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST DATA. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND SECONDARILY INTO JOSEPHINE
AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES DURING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH A
DECREASE OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH LEVEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NEVADA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA THAT COULD EXTEND INTO OUR AREA.


&&


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/18Z TAF CYCLE...
AT THE COAST- LOCALLY PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE HUGGING THE COAST AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIG/VIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE AS LOW AT THE AIR FIELDS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. AREAS OF MOSTLY VFR SMOKE
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. SMOKE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL- IN
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE- NEAR THE FIRE POINT SOURCES NEAR HAPPY CAMP
AND ONION MOUNTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THEM. BTL


&&


.MARINE...UPDATED 1150 AM PDT SUN 15 SEP 2014...
A WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS MAINLY FROM NORTH BEND NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND
MIXED WEST AND SOUTH SWELL. STEEP SEAS REACHING 7 TO 8 FT ARE
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...WITH
WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  BTL/CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS AHEAD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXTREME DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N/131W STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH
OF CRATER LAKE. HOWEVER IT SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN LAKE AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, THEREFORE EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE PATH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FACT IT`S NEGATIVELY TILTED IS A CONCERN FOR ME AND
DESPITE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 140W WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND NOT
MUCH IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES
INLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SO THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL FEEL THAT THE EASTSIDE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ALSO OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

OF NOTE, THE EC SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO THE EC SHOWS QPF BREAKING
OUT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVES THE LOW INTO ARIZONA. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF OR WHEN
THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/BTL/MND










000
FXUS66 KMFR 151851
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS
HAVE EACH TRENDED WEAKER WITH CASCADE INSTABILITY. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT CURRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BUT, THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE UNDER A STABLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE/MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING
ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FOCUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST DATA. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND SECONDARILY INTO JOSEPHINE
AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES DURING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH A
DECREASE OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH LEVEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NEVADA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA THAT COULD EXTEND INTO OUR AREA.


&&


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/18Z TAF CYCLE...
AT THE COAST- LOCALLY PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND
VIS ARE HUGGING THE COAST AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
BRIEF BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIG/VIS
PROBABLY WON`T BE AS LOW AT THE AIR FIELDS TONIGHT DUE TO SOME
COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER. AREAS OF MOSTLY VFR SMOKE
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON
AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. SMOKE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL- IN
THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE- NEAR THE FIRE POINT SOURCES NEAR HAPPY CAMP
AND ONION MOUNTAIN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS MODOC, LAKE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR THEM. BTL


&&


.MARINE...UPDATED 1150 AM PDT SUN 15 SEP 2014...
A WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS MAINLY FROM NORTH BEND NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND
MIXED WEST AND SOUTH SWELL. STEEP SEAS REACHING 7 TO 8 FT ARE
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...WITH
WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  BTL/CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS AHEAD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXTREME DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N/131W STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH
OF CRATER LAKE. HOWEVER IT SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN LAKE AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, THEREFORE EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE PATH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FACT IT`S NEGATIVELY TILTED IS A CONCERN FOR ME AND
DESPITE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 140W WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND NOT
MUCH IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES
INLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SO THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL FEEL THAT THE EASTSIDE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ALSO OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

OF NOTE, THE EC SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO THE EC SHOWS QPF BREAKING
OUT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVES THE LOW INTO ARIZONA. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF OR WHEN
THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/BTL/MND











000
FXUS66 KMFR 151613
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE OREGON CASCADES. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS MODELS
HAVE EACH TRENDED WEAKER WITH CASCADE INSTABILITY. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT CURRY
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BUT, THE GREATEST INSTABILITY/HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE SHASTA VALLEY AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.

A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
ON TUESDAY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST SIDE UNDER A STABLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE/MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING
ARRIVES WITH THE NEXT TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FOCUS FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ADJUSTING THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO REFLECT THE LATEST DATA. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND SECONDARILY INTO JOSEPHINE
AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES DURING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE TROUGH ITSELF WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH A
DECREASE OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH LEVEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND
FORECAST AS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NEVADA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA THAT COULD EXTEND INTO OUR AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/12Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...LOCALLY
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE HUGGING THE
COAST AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LOCAL INLAND
INTRUSION...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE RETURNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO
JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY, INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AWAY FROM THE FIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE, A LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AROUND 15 MPH AND VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED T0 5 AM PDT SUN 15 SEP 2014...A WEAK LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW MAY ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM NORTH BEND
NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO A MIX OF WIND WAVES AND MIXED WEST AND SOUTH
SWELL. STEEP SEAS REACHING 7 TO 8 FT ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY THE SECOND LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...WITH WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEP SEAS POSSIBLE AS WELL. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS AHEAD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXTREME DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N/131W STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH
OF CRATER LAKE. HOWEVER IT SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN LAKE AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, THEREFORE EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE PATH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FACT IT`S NEGATIVELY TILTED IS A CONCERN FOR ME AND
DESPITE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 140W WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND NOT
MUCH IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES
INLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SO THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL FEEL THAT THE EASTSIDE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ALSO OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

OF NOTE, THE EC SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO THE EC SHOWS QPF BREAKING
OUT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVES THE LOW INTO ARIZONA. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF OR WHEN
THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/BTL/MND








000
FXUS66 KMFR 151002
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS AHEAD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXTREME DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N/131W STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH
OF CRATER LAKE. HOWEVER IT SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN LAKE AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, THEREFORE EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE PATH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FACT IT`S NEGATIVELY TILTED IS A CONCERN FOR ME AND
DESPITE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 140W WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND NOT
MUCH IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES
INLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SO THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL FEEL THAT THE EASTSIDE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ALSO OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

OF NOTE, THE EC SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO THE EC SHOWS QPF BREAKING
OUT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVES THE LOW INTO ARIZONA. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF OR WHEN
THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/06Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...LOCALLY
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE HUGGING THE
COAST AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MINOR INLAND
INTRUSION...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK
BEFORE RETURNING EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AWAY FROM
THE FIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES THE COAST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN SO...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 151002
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FOCUS AHEAD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE EXTREME DRY FUELS AND THE POSSIBILITY ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N/131W STARTING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND SOUTH
OF CRATER LAKE. HOWEVER IT SHOWS MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN LAKE AND SOUTHEAST KLAMATH COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN INVERTED-V PROFILE, THEREFORE EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE PATH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE FACT IT`S NEGATIVELY TILTED IS A CONCERN FOR ME AND
DESPITE THE FACT THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE NEXT CONCERN IS MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR 140W WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL GET EJECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND NOT
MUCH IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH WILL BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVES
INLAND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER, SO THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL FEEL THAT THE EASTSIDE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT ALSO OVER THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY, BUT THEY DIFFER WITH THE LOCATION.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES IT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WHILE THE EC IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

OF NOTE, THE EC SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO THE EC SHOWS QPF BREAKING
OUT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVES THE LOW INTO ARIZONA. SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF OR WHEN
THE MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/06Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...LOCALLY
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE HUGGING THE
COAST AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH MINOR INLAND
INTRUSION...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK
BEFORE RETURNING EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AWAY FROM
THE FIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
I-5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES THE COAST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN SO...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHWEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. SVEN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 150424
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
924 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE WINDS DECREASING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
TOWARDS THE COAST...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED THE COASTAL WATERS AND IS
STARTING TO INTRUDE INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AT THIS TIME. HAVE
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR 35N 135W MOVES OUR WAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL
THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE
UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND BECOMES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS STAY OFFSHORE,
BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY, WEAK PVA,
AND WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. WE`RE KEEPING THE CHANCE
SLIGHT ACROSS THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT IF WE`RE TO HAVE
STORMS THEY`RE MOST LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT
A LOT OF STORMS (IF ANY) FUELS ARE SO DRY THAT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKE
IS LIABLE TO START A FIRE. SO THIS IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN. AT ANY
RATE, LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY (INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS) SO
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CRITICAL AT
THE SURFACE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE CASCADES FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME, MORE ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN ALONG 140W AND CARVE
OUT A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BITS OF ENERGY OUR WAY TUESDAY, BUT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TUESDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE, BUT WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE, WHICH IS ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THEN APPROACHES THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY. THE ENERGY IS GOING TO
SPLIT WITH A CLOSED LOW THEN HEADING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND A
NORTHERN JET STREAM STAYING WELL NORTH OF US. BUT WE WILL STILL BE
LOOKING AT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO SHOWERS MAY BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER MAKER, BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE.

A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO DO SO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF
HOT, DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/18Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...LOCALLY
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE HUGGING THE
COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH MINIMAL INLAND INTRUSION. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AWAY FROM
THE FIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 235 PM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK LOW APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND MODELS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
SO...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND
LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR..FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
    EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$











000
FXUS66 KMFR 150424
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
924 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE WINDS DECREASING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
TOWARDS THE COAST...THE STRATUS HAS FILLED THE COASTAL WATERS AND IS
STARTING TO INTRUDE INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS AT THIS TIME. HAVE
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR 35N 135W MOVES OUR WAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL
THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE
UPPER TROUGH OPENS UP AND BECOMES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS STAY OFFSHORE,
BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY, WEAK PVA,
AND WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. WE`RE KEEPING THE CHANCE
SLIGHT ACROSS THE AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT IF WE`RE TO HAVE
STORMS THEY`RE MOST LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT
A LOT OF STORMS (IF ANY) FUELS ARE SO DRY THAT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKE
IS LIABLE TO START A FIRE. SO THIS IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN. AT ANY
RATE, LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY (INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS) SO
LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CRITICAL AT
THE SURFACE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE CASCADES FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME, MORE ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN ALONG 140W AND CARVE
OUT A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BITS OF ENERGY OUR WAY TUESDAY, BUT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TUESDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE, BUT WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE, WHICH IS ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THEN APPROACHES THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY. THE ENERGY IS GOING TO
SPLIT WITH A CLOSED LOW THEN HEADING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND A
NORTHERN JET STREAM STAYING WELL NORTH OF US. BUT WE WILL STILL BE
LOOKING AT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO SHOWERS MAY BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER MAKER, BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE.

A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO DO SO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF
HOT, DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/18Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...LOCALLY
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE HUGGING THE
COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH MINIMAL INLAND INTRUSION. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AWAY FROM
THE FIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 235 PM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK LOW APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND MODELS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
SO...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND
LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR..FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
    EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$












000
FXUS66 KMFR 142137
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 35N
135W MOVES OUR WAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH TONIGHT
EVEN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE UPPER TROUGH
OPENS UP AND BECOMES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TOMORROW. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS STAY OFFSHORE, BUT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY, WEAK PVA, AND WEAK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. WE`RE KEEPING THE CHANCE SLIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT IF WE`RE TO HAVE STORMS THEY`RE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF STORMS (IF
ANY) FUELS ARE SO DRY THAT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKE IS LIABLE TO START A
FIRE. SO THIS IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN. AT ANY RATE, LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY (INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS) SO LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CRITICAL AT THE SURFACE. WE
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE CASCADES FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME, MORE ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN ALONG 140W AND CARVE
OUT A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BITS OF ENERGY OUR WAY TUESDAY, BUT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TUESDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE, BUT WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE, WHICH IS ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THEN APPROACHES THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY. THE ENERGY IS GOING TO
SPLIT WITH A CLOSED LOW THEN HEADING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND A
NORTHERN JET STREAM STAYING WELL NORTH OF US. BUT WE WILL STILL BE
LOOKING AT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO SHOWERS MAY BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER MAKER, BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE.

A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO DO SO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF
HOT, DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/18Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...LOCALLY
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE HUGGING THE
COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH MINIMAL INLAND INTRUSION. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AWAY FROM
THE FIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 235 PM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK LOW APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND MODELS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
SO...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND
LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR..FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
    EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 142137
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
237 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 35N
135W MOVES OUR WAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH TONIGHT
EVEN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE UPPER TROUGH
OPENS UP AND BECOMES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TOMORROW. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS STAY OFFSHORE, BUT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY, WEAK PVA, AND WEAK
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. WE`RE KEEPING THE CHANCE SLIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT IF WE`RE TO HAVE STORMS THEY`RE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CASCADES. WHILE WE DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF STORMS (IF
ANY) FUELS ARE SO DRY THAT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKE IS LIABLE TO START A
FIRE. SO THIS IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN. AT ANY RATE, LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY (INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS) SO LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CRITICAL AT THE SURFACE. WE
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE CASCADES FOR MONDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME, MORE ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN ALONG 140W AND CARVE
OUT A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BITS OF ENERGY OUR WAY TUESDAY, BUT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE MUCH WILL HAPPEN AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TUESDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE, BUT WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE, WHICH IS ANOTHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH THEN APPROACHES THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY. THE ENERGY IS GOING TO
SPLIT WITH A CLOSED LOW THEN HEADING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND A
NORTHERN JET STREAM STAYING WELL NORTH OF US. BUT WE WILL STILL BE
LOOKING AT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO SHOWERS MAY BE THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER MAKER, BUT STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE.

A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO DO SO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF
HOT, DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/18Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...LOCALLY
PERSISTENT STRATUS AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE HUGGING THE
COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH MINIMAL INLAND INTRUSION. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AWAY FROM
THE FIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS EASTWARD. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 235 PM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK LOW APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES
NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND MODELS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
SO...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND
LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR..FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
    EVENING FOR ORZ617-623.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 141559
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER SUNNY, HOT DAY INLAND FROM THE COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SMOKE FROM
THE SISKIYOU FIRES (HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX AND OTHERS) INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON. A NEW FIRE NEAR ONION MOUNTAIN IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY IS
ALREADY PRODUCING SMOKE WHICH WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE FROM
GRANTS PASS, BUT POSSIBLY EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS ROSEBURG. AT THE
COAST IT WILL BE COOLER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CURRY COAST WHERE
STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFFSHORE. THE NORTH COAST MAY BE A TOUCH
WARMER, BUT EVENTUALLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP IT FROM WARMING MUCH.

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 15/06 NAM WAS A
BIT TROUBLING IN THAT IT SHOWED A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
OVER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. THE 15/12Z NAM IS NOW BACK TO SHOWING
STORM POTENTIAL CASCADES/SISKIYOUS EASTWARD, WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. WILL WAIT UNTIL ALL
15/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES, BUT AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
MORE OF THE AREA, BUT NOT NECESSARILY GOING ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/12Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...AREAS OF
STRATUS  AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
SOUTH  OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE
MORNING THEN RETURN LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS TODAY INTO MONDAY, INITIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THEN SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.   INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES NORTHWARD.  WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BUT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THEN AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH STEEP
SEAS OF NEAR 6 TO 8 FT POSSIBLE  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES
AND MIXED WEST AND SOUTH SWELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL  GRADUALLY MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE
INCREASING SMOKE, MEDFORD STILL GOT TO 96 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS
WAS IN PART DUE TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SMOKE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND EXPECT
THE SMOKE TO BECOME THICKER IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE THING OF CONCERN,
THE FOG IMAGE SHOWS A HOT SPOT NEAR ONION MOUNTAIN WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR OF A DEVELOPING FIRE.

THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD IS MONDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N/139W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING IN THAT IT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED MONDAY MORNING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST OREGON
ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD JET SUPPORT AT 300MB. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE UNSTABLE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. I`M LESS CONFIDENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GUT
FEELING TELLS ME THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY COULD BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
HOWEVER, THERE AREA FEW ELEMENTS WORKING AGAINST IT. FIRST, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP NEAR 630MB AND SECOND THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
THERE ARE ELEMENTS THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. FIRST
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE, SECOND, INCREASING PWATS, THIRD
INCREASING CAPE, FOURTH, LIFTED INDICIES LOWERING TO BELOW ZERO AND
FINALLY SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THE TRIGGER IS WEAK, BUT
SUSPECT THE NAM AND GFS MAY NOT BE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL. THE EC
DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRIGGER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OREGON. WITH ALL THAT SAID, GOING WITH A GUT FEELING THAT STORMS
COULD DEVELOP AND WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES LATE MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CRITICAL DRY FUELS AND ONGOING FIRES. OF NOTE THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUB LAYER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY, ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH IS WHERE THE
CAPE IS HIGHEST AND LIFTED INDICIES ARE LOWEST. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO FIRE UP WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR, BUT SPC
LIGHTING PROG DOES SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE STRIKE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE DAY SHIFT WILL
WANT TO RE EVALUATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PENDING NEW MODEL DATA.

THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN MONDAY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
THEY COULD MIX DOWN INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY, DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE 790 FIRE AND FIRE NEAR ONION
MOUNTAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE DETAILS
ON THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
WETTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE EC SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION. THE GEM
APPEARS TO BE A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS. GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN, WE`LL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST. HOWEVER

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 141559
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER SUNNY, HOT DAY INLAND FROM THE COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SMOKE FROM
THE SISKIYOU FIRES (HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX AND OTHERS) INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON. A NEW FIRE NEAR ONION MOUNTAIN IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY IS
ALREADY PRODUCING SMOKE WHICH WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE FROM
GRANTS PASS, BUT POSSIBLY EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS ROSEBURG. AT THE
COAST IT WILL BE COOLER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CURRY COAST WHERE
STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFFSHORE. THE NORTH COAST MAY BE A TOUCH
WARMER, BUT EVENTUALLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY WHICH WILL
KEEP IT FROM WARMING MUCH.

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 15/06 NAM WAS A
BIT TROUBLING IN THAT IT SHOWED A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
OVER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS. THE 15/12Z NAM IS NOW BACK TO SHOWING
STORM POTENTIAL CASCADES/SISKIYOUS EASTWARD, WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. WILL WAIT UNTIL ALL
15/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES, BUT AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER
MORE OF THE AREA, BUT NOT NECESSARILY GOING ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/12Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...AREAS OF
STRATUS  AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
SOUTH  OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF IN THE LATE
MORNING THEN RETURN LATE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL AFFECT
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTH INTO JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY,
INCLUDING KMFR. THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, HOWEVER  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SAT 14 SEP 2014... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS TODAY INTO MONDAY, INITIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THEN SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.   INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES NORTHWARD.  WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BUT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THEN AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS MAY RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH STEEP
SEAS OF NEAR 6 TO 8 FT POSSIBLE  DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES
AND MIXED WEST AND SOUTH SWELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL  GRADUALLY MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY WITH WINDS LOWERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING
NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE
INCREASING SMOKE, MEDFORD STILL GOT TO 96 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS
WAS IN PART DUE TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SMOKE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND EXPECT
THE SMOKE TO BECOME THICKER IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE THING OF CONCERN,
THE FOG IMAGE SHOWS A HOT SPOT NEAR ONION MOUNTAIN WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR OF A DEVELOPING FIRE.

THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD IS MONDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N/139W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING IN THAT IT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED MONDAY MORNING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST OREGON
ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD JET SUPPORT AT 300MB. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE UNSTABLE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. I`M LESS CONFIDENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GUT
FEELING TELLS ME THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY COULD BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
HOWEVER, THERE AREA FEW ELEMENTS WORKING AGAINST IT. FIRST, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP NEAR 630MB AND SECOND THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
THERE ARE ELEMENTS THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. FIRST
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE, SECOND, INCREASING PWATS, THIRD
INCREASING CAPE, FOURTH, LIFTED INDICIES LOWERING TO BELOW ZERO AND
FINALLY SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THE TRIGGER IS WEAK, BUT
SUSPECT THE NAM AND GFS MAY NOT BE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL. THE EC
DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRIGGER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OREGON. WITH ALL THAT SAID, GOING WITH A GUT FEELING THAT STORMS
COULD DEVELOP AND WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES LATE MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CRITICAL DRY FUELS AND ONGOING FIRES. OF NOTE THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUB LAYER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY, ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH IS WHERE THE
CAPE IS HIGHEST AND LIFTED INDICIES ARE LOWEST. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO FIRE UP WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR, BUT SPC
LIGHTING PROG DOES SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE STRIKE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE DAY SHIFT WILL
WANT TO RE EVALUATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PENDING NEW MODEL DATA.

THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN MONDAY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
THEY COULD MIX DOWN INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY, DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE 790 FIRE AND FIRE NEAR ONION
MOUNTAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE DETAILS
ON THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
WETTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE EC SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION. THE GEM
APPEARS TO BE A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS. GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN, WE`LL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST. HOWEVER

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 141005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
305 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE
INCREASING SMOKE, MEDFORD STILL GOT TO 96 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS
WAS IN PART DUE TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SMOKE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND EXPECT
THE SMOKE TO BECOME THICKER IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE THING OF CONCERN,
THE FOG IMAGE SHOWS A HOT SPOT NEAR ONION MOUNTAIN WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR OF A DEVELOPING FIRE.

THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD IS MONDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N/139W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING IN THAT IT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED MONDAY MORNING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST OREGON
ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD JET SUPPORT AT 300MB. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE UNSTABLE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. I`M LESS CONFIDENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GUT
FEELING TELLS ME THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY COULD BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
HOWEVER, THERE AREA FEW ELEMENTS WORKING AGAINST IT. FIRST, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP NEAR 630MB AND SECOND THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
THERE ARE ELEMENTS THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. FIRST
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE, SECOND, INCREASING PWATS, THIRD
INCREASING CAPE, FOURTH, LIFTED INDICIES LOWERING TO BELOW ZERO AND
FINALLY SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THE TRIGGER IS WEAK, BUT
SUSPECT THE NAM AND GFS MAY NOT BE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL. THE EC
DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRIGGER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OREGON. WITH ALL THAT SAID, GOING WITH A GUT FEELING THAT STORMS
COULD DEVELOP AND WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES LATE MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CRITICAL DRY FUELS AND ONGOING FIRES. OF NOTE THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUB LAYER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY, ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH IS WHERE THE
CAPE IS HIGHEST AND LIFTED INDICIES ARE LOWEST. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO FIRE UP WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR, BUT SPC
LIGHTING PROG DOES SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE STRIKE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE DAY SHIFT WILL
WANT TO RE EVALUATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PENDING NEW MODEL DATA.

THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN MONDAY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
THEY COULD MIX DOWN INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY, DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE 790 FIRE AND FIRE NEAR ONION
MOUNTAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE DETAILS
ON THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
WETTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE EC SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION. THE GEM
APPEARS TO BE A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS. GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN, WE`LL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST. HOWEVER

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/06Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...STRATUS
AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP, BUT WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE KOTH
AREA AM THINKING THAT IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE BURNING OFF. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING KMFR.
THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 PM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MID
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN  STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$






000
FXUS66 KMFR 141005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
305 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THE
INCREASING SMOKE, MEDFORD STILL GOT TO 96 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS
WAS IN PART DUE TO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SMOKE SOUTHEAST OF THE ROGUE
VALLEY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND EXPECT
THE SMOKE TO BECOME THICKER IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE THING OF CONCERN,
THE FOG IMAGE SHOWS A HOT SPOT NEAR ONION MOUNTAIN WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR OF A DEVELOPING FIRE.

THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD IS MONDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N/139W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER IS SOMEWHAT CONCERNING IN THAT IT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED MONDAY MORNING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST OREGON
ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD JET SUPPORT AT 300MB. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE UNSTABLE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. I`M LESS CONFIDENT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. GUT
FEELING TELLS ME THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MONDAY COULD BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
HOWEVER, THERE AREA FEW ELEMENTS WORKING AGAINST IT. FIRST, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP NEAR 630MB AND SECOND THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
THERE ARE ELEMENTS THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. FIRST
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE, SECOND, INCREASING PWATS, THIRD
INCREASING CAPE, FOURTH, LIFTED INDICIES LOWERING TO BELOW ZERO AND
FINALLY SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. THE TRIGGER IS WEAK, BUT
SUSPECT THE NAM AND GFS MAY NOT BE PICKING UP ON THIS WELL. THE EC
DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRIGGER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OREGON. WITH ALL THAT SAID, GOING WITH A GUT FEELING THAT STORMS
COULD DEVELOP AND WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES LATE MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE CRITICAL DRY FUELS AND ONGOING FIRES. OF NOTE THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUB LAYER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTY, ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WHICH IS WHERE THE
CAPE IS HIGHEST AND LIFTED INDICIES ARE LOWEST. RIGHT NOW WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO FIRE UP WEST OF THE I-5 CORRIDOR, BUT SPC
LIGHTING PROG DOES SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE STRIKE
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. THE DAY SHIFT WILL
WANT TO RE EVALUATE THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PENDING NEW MODEL DATA.

THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN MONDAY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30
KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND
THEY COULD MIX DOWN INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY, DESPITE THE LACK OF A
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FIRES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, THE 790 FIRE AND FIRE NEAR ONION
MOUNTAIN.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID SLOPES, RIDGES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

THE EC AND GFS AND GEM CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE DETAILS
ON THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND
WETTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE EC SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A DRIER SOLUTION. THE GEM
APPEARS TO BE A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS. GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN, WE`LL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST. HOWEVER

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 14/06Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...STRATUS
AND FOG WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP, BUT WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE KOTH
AREA AM THINKING THAT IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE BURNING OFF. AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING KMFR.
THIS MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 PM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MID
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN  STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$







000
FXUS66 KMFR 140417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH TONIGHT LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT THE
MAIN CONCERN IS "HOW FAR NORTH UP THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL THE
STRATUS TRAVEL"? CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 DEGREES
BELOW TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS BEING OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. THE VARIANCE IS BASICALLY DUE TO SMOKE AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE
COOLER SPOTS ARE IN AND AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY WHERE A COMBINATION
OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE FROM THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX FIRE ARE
PREVENTING FULL SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF THE SMOKE AND HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER...SUCH AS IN ROSEBURG.

TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SIMILAR LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY KEEPING SMOKE IN THE SAME AREAS. OUTSIDE OF
SMOKE...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL AGAIN BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON MONDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CLEARLY SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 39N 141W WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF IN AT LEAST TWO WAYS.
FIRST...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BECOMING ESPECIALLY GUSTY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THIS WIND IS DRIVEN MORE BY THE UPPER LEVELS
INSTEAD OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO MORE CONFIDENT ON THE
RIDGES BECOMING WINDY THAN THE VALLEYS. SECOND...THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTWARD. THE ELEMENTS IN FAVOR OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE...THOUGH IT BE A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY NEAR
THE COAST...AND SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. LASTLY...ONE CAN INFER
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GIVEN A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE ELEMENTS AGAINST THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHEAR WHICH COULD
OUTWEIGH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PREVENT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE REALLY INDICATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SO...WE THOUGHT IT
BEST TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE AND KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL
TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING IS NEEDED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
FUELS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH LIGHTNING AT ALL TO GENERATE NEW FIRE
STARTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...AS 700MB FLOW
CONTINUES AT 20-30 KTS.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FEATURES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AS A STRONGER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US...THE ECMWF SPLITS THE ENERGY AND BRINGS
THE MAIN WAVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...BRINGING LITTLE
TO ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WHAT FOLLOWS IS
MORE RIDGING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

SPEAKING SUMMARILY AND IN TERMS OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AT ONGOING
WILDFIRES...WETTING RAINS LOOK UNLIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AT
LEAST.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN COASTAL FOG
ALONG THE CURRY COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE
NORTH INTO JACKSON COUNTY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 PM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MID
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN  STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/DW











000
FXUS66 KMFR 140417
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...WITH TONIGHT LOOKING LIKE A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT THE
MAIN CONCERN IS "HOW FAR NORTH UP THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WILL THE
STRATUS TRAVEL"? CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE
THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 DEGREES
BELOW TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS BEING OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. THE VARIANCE IS BASICALLY DUE TO SMOKE AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE
COOLER SPOTS ARE IN AND AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY WHERE A COMBINATION
OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE FROM THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX FIRE ARE
PREVENTING FULL SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF THE SMOKE AND HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER...SUCH AS IN ROSEBURG.

TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SIMILAR LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY KEEPING SMOKE IN THE SAME AREAS. OUTSIDE OF
SMOKE...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL AGAIN BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON MONDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CLEARLY SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 39N 141W WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF IN AT LEAST TWO WAYS.
FIRST...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BECOMING ESPECIALLY GUSTY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THIS WIND IS DRIVEN MORE BY THE UPPER LEVELS
INSTEAD OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO MORE CONFIDENT ON THE
RIDGES BECOMING WINDY THAN THE VALLEYS. SECOND...THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTWARD. THE ELEMENTS IN FAVOR OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE...THOUGH IT BE A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY NEAR
THE COAST...AND SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. LASTLY...ONE CAN INFER
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GIVEN A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE ELEMENTS AGAINST THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHEAR WHICH COULD
OUTWEIGH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PREVENT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE REALLY INDICATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SO...WE THOUGHT IT
BEST TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE AND KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL
TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING IS NEEDED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
FUELS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH LIGHTNING AT ALL TO GENERATE NEW FIRE
STARTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...AS 700MB FLOW
CONTINUES AT 20-30 KTS.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FEATURES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AS A STRONGER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US...THE ECMWF SPLITS THE ENERGY AND BRINGS
THE MAIN WAVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...BRINGING LITTLE
TO ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WHAT FOLLOWS IS
MORE RIDGING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

SPEAKING SUMMARILY AND IN TERMS OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AT ONGOING
WILDFIRES...WETTING RAINS LOOK UNLIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AT
LEAST.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN COASTAL FOG
ALONG THE CURRY COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE
NORTH INTO JACKSON COUNTY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 915 PM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MID
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN  STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/DW










000
FXUS66 KMFR 132140
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
240 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 DEGREES BELOW TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS BEING OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
VARIANCE IS BASICALLY DUE TO SMOKE AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE COOLER
SPOTS ARE IN AND AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY WHERE A COMBINATION OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE FROM THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX FIRE ARE
PREVENTING FULL SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF THE SMOKE AND HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER...SUCH AS IN ROSEBURG.

TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SIMILAR LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY KEEPING SMOKE IN THE SAME AREAS. OUTSIDE OF
SMOKE...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL AGAIN BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON MONDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CLEARLY SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 39N 141W WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF IN AT LEAST TWO WAYS.
FIRST...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BECOMING ESPECIALLY GUSTY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THIS WIND IS DRIVEN MORE BY THE UPPER LEVELS
INSTEAD OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO MORE CONFIDENT ON THE
RIDGES BECOMING WINDY THAN THE VALLEYS. SECOND...THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTWARD. THE ELEMENTS IN FAVOR OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE...THOUGH IT BE A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY NEAR
THE COAST...AND SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. LASTLY...ONE CAN INFER
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GIVEN A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE ELEMENTS AGAINST THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHEAR WHICH COULD
OUTWEIGH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PREVENT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE REALLY INDICATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SO...WE THOUGHT IT
BEST TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE AND KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL
TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING IS NEEDED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
FUELS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH LIGHTNING AT ALL TO GENERATE NEW FIRE
STARTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...AS 700MB FLOW
CONTINUES AT 20-30 KTS.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FEATURES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AS A STRONGER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US...THE ECMWF SPLITS THE ENERGY AND BRINGS
THE MAIN WAVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...BRINGING LITTLE
TO ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WHAT FOLLOWS IS
MORE RIDGING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

SPEAKING SUMMARILY AND IN TERMS OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AT ONGOING
WILDFIRES...WETTING RAINS LOOK UNLIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AT
LEAST.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN COASTAL FOG
ALONG THE CURRY COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE
NORTH INTO JACKSON COUNTY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MID
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN  STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/DW








000
FXUS66 KMFR 132140
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
240 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 DEGREES BELOW TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WAS BEING OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE
VARIANCE IS BASICALLY DUE TO SMOKE AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE COOLER
SPOTS ARE IN AND AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY WHERE A COMBINATION OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE FROM THE HAPPY CAMP COMPLEX FIRE ARE
PREVENTING FULL SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF THE SMOKE AND HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER...SUCH AS IN ROSEBURG.

TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SIMILAR LOW AND MID
LEVEL WINDS LIKELY KEEPING SMOKE IN THE SAME AREAS. OUTSIDE OF
SMOKE...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL AGAIN BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON MONDAY THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
CLEARLY SHOWN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 39N 141W WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND THIS WILL MANIFEST ITSELF IN AT LEAST TWO WAYS.
FIRST...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BECOMING ESPECIALLY GUSTY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY. THIS WIND IS DRIVEN MORE BY THE UPPER LEVELS
INSTEAD OF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO MORE CONFIDENT ON THE
RIDGES BECOMING WINDY THAN THE VALLEYS. SECOND...THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE CASCADES
AND EASTWARD. THE ELEMENTS IN FAVOR OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE...THOUGH IT BE A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY NEAR
THE COAST...AND SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH HAVE
INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. LASTLY...ONE CAN INFER
SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GIVEN A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE ELEMENTS AGAINST THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHEAR WHICH COULD
OUTWEIGH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PREVENT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE REALLY INDICATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SO...WE THOUGHT IT
BEST TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE AND KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL
TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING IS NEEDED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
FUELS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH LIGHTNING AT ALL TO GENERATE NEW FIRE
STARTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...AS 700MB FLOW
CONTINUES AT 20-30 KTS.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FEATURES
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AS A STRONGER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US...THE ECMWF SPLITS THE ENERGY AND BRINGS
THE MAIN WAVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...BRINGING LITTLE
TO ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WHAT FOLLOWS IS
MORE RIDGING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

SPEAKING SUMMARILY AND IN TERMS OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AT ONGOING
WILDFIRES...WETTING RAINS LOOK UNLIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AT
LEAST.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN COASTAL FOG
ALONG THE CURRY COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME
INLAND AREAS, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE
NORTH INTO JACKSON COUNTY. /DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND MID
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN  STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/DW







000
FXUS66 KMFR 131539 CCA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE YET MORE DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SEND SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG HUG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

A CHANGE IS ON THE WAY BY LATE MONDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A COOLDOWN DUE
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SOMETHING THAT HASN`T OCCURRED OVER THE
REGION FOR A LONG WHILE.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
COOLDOWN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
CASCADES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN COASTAL FOG ALONG THE
CURRY COAST. FOG IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN WILL RETURN TO THE CURRY COAST AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME INLAND AREAS, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO
THE NORTHEAST. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. THEN SOME
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AROUND MID WEEK MAY BRINGING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST. THE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AND NOW
THAT NIGHTS ARE BECOMING LONGER, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE COOL
MORNINGS AND HOT AFTERNOONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
WILL HAVE PATCHY AREAS OF SMOKE. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MARINE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. IN
FACT IT MADE ITS WAY INTO BROOKINGS. IT HAS SINCE RETREATED BACK
SOUTH, BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND IS EXPECTED TO CREEP
BACK NORTH UP TOWARDS GOLD BEACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT THE MARINE STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MOST OF THE MARINE
WATERS.

THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PAC NW MONDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER
EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEST AND THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE NAM HINTS AT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO TRIGGER. THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SOME, BUT
LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND LITTLE OR NO CAPE. THEREFORE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT KEEPING ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT.
FURTHER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE GFS AND EC COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM. IF NOTHING ELSE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THE SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO
UNFOLD STARTING TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N/137W TUESDAY, THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO AN UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC AND REMAIN WEAKER. EITHER
WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT (AT LEAST IN A RELATIVE SENSE) SINCE LAST SPRING. GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF DRYNESS OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL BE WELCOME
NEWS FOR MOST, ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER FOLKS. THE EC IS THE
WETTER OF THE THREE MODELS (GFS AND GEM) AND SUSPECT IT MAY BE TOO
WET. ALSO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUCH THAT THE COAST, COAST
RANGE AND WEST SIDE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WHICH AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AND WE COULD SEE THEM DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ONE CONCERN WE HAVE IS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. I DON`T THINK
THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES, BUT WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/CC









000
FXUS66 KMFR 131536
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
836 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE YET MORE DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SEND SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG HUG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

A CHANGE IS ON THE WAY BY MONDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A COOLDOWN DUE
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SOMETHING THAT HASN`T OCCURRED OVER THE
REGION FOR A LONG WHILE.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
COOLDOWN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
CASCADES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN COASTAL FOG ALONG THE
CURRY COAST. FOG IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN WILL RETURN TO THE CURRY COAST AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME INLAND AREAS, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO
THE NORTHEAST. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. THEN SOME
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AROUND MID WEEK MAY BRINGING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST. THE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AND NOW
THAT NIGHTS ARE BECOMING LONGER, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE COOL
MORNINGS AND HOT AFTERNOONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
WILL HAVE PATCHY AREAS OF SMOKE. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MARINE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. IN
FACT IT MADE ITS WAY INTO BROOKINGS. IT HAS SINCE RETREATED BACK
SOUTH, BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND IS EXPECTED TO CREEP
BACK NORTH UP TOWARDS GOLD BEACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT THE MARINE STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MOST OF THE MARINE
WATERS.

THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PAC NW MONDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER
EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEST AND THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE NAM HINTS AT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO TRIGGER. THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SOME, BUT
LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND LITTLE OR NO CAPE. THEREFORE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT KEEPING ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT.
FURTHER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE GFS AND EC COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM. IF NOTHING ELSE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THE SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO
UNFOLD STARTING TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N/137W TUESDAY, THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO AN UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC AND REMAIN WEAKER. EITHER
WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT (AT LEAST IN A RELATIVE SENSE) SINCE LAST SPRING. GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF DRYNESS OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL BE WELCOME
NEWS FOR MOST, ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER FOLKS. THE EC IS THE
WETTER OF THE THREE MODELS (GFS AND GEM) AND SUSPECT IT MAY BE TOO
WET. ALSO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUCH THAT THE COAST, COAST
RANGE AND WEST SIDE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WHICH AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AND WE COULD SEE THEM DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ONE CONCERN WE HAVE IS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. I DON`T THINK
THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES, BUT WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/CC







000
FXUS66 KMFR 131536
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
836 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE YET MORE DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SEND SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG HUG THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

A CHANGE IS ON THE WAY BY MONDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A COOLDOWN DUE
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SOMETHING THAT HASN`T OCCURRED OVER THE
REGION FOR A LONG WHILE.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
COOLDOWN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
CASCADES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR CIGS IN COASTAL FOG ALONG THE
CURRY COAST. FOG IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISOLATED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT THEN WILL RETURN TO THE CURRY COAST AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME INLAND AREAS, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO
THE NORTHEAST. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT SAT 13 SEP 2014...A VERY WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS. THEN SOME
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THEN A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AROUND MID WEEK MAY BRINGING INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS. INITIALLY, A MIX OF WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME LINGERING SOUTHERLY AND
WESTERLY SWELL MAY RESULT IN STEEP SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. /CC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST. THE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AND NOW
THAT NIGHTS ARE BECOMING LONGER, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE COOL
MORNINGS AND HOT AFTERNOONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
WILL HAVE PATCHY AREAS OF SMOKE. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MARINE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. IN
FACT IT MADE ITS WAY INTO BROOKINGS. IT HAS SINCE RETREATED BACK
SOUTH, BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND IS EXPECTED TO CREEP
BACK NORTH UP TOWARDS GOLD BEACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT THE MARINE STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MOST OF THE MARINE
WATERS.

THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PAC NW MONDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER
EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEST AND THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE NAM HINTS AT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO TRIGGER. THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SOME, BUT
LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND LITTLE OR NO CAPE. THEREFORE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT KEEPING ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT.
FURTHER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE GFS AND EC COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM. IF NOTHING ELSE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THE SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO
UNFOLD STARTING TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N/137W TUESDAY, THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO AN UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC AND REMAIN WEAKER. EITHER
WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT (AT LEAST IN A RELATIVE SENSE) SINCE LAST SPRING. GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF DRYNESS OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL BE WELCOME
NEWS FOR MOST, ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER FOLKS. THE EC IS THE
WETTER OF THE THREE MODELS (GFS AND GEM) AND SUSPECT IT MAY BE TOO
WET. ALSO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUCH THAT THE COAST, COAST
RANGE AND WEST SIDE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WHICH AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AND WE COULD SEE THEM DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ONE CONCERN WE HAVE IS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. I DON`T THINK
THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES, BUT WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

NSK/NSK/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 131004
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST. THE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AND NOW
THAT NIGHTS ARE BECOMING LONGER, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE COOL
MORNINGS AND HOT AFTERNOONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
WILL HAVE PATCHY AREAS OF SMOKE. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MARINE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. IN
FACT IT MADE ITS WAY INTO BROOKINGS. IT HAS SINCE RETREATED BACK
SOUTH, BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND IS EXPECTED TO CREEP
BACK NORTH UP TOWARDS GOLD BEACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT THE MARINE STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MOST OF THE MARINE
WATERS.

THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PAC NW MONDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER
EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEST AND THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE NAM HINTS AT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO TRIGGER. THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SOME, BUT
LIFTED INDICIES ARE POSITIVE AND LITTLE OR NO CAPE. THEREFORE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT KEEPING ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT.
FURTHER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE GFS AND EC COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM. IF NOTHING ELSE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THE SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO
UNFOLD STARTING TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N/137W TUESDAY, THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO AN UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC AND REMAIN WEAKER. EITHER
WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT (AT LEAST IN A RELATIVE SENSE) SINCE LAST SPRING. GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF DRYNESS OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL BE WELCOME
NEWS FOR MOST, ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER FOLKS. THE EC IS THE
WETTER OF THE THREE MODELS (GFS AND GEM) AND SUSPECT IT MAY BE TOO
WET. ALSO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUCH THAT THE COAST, COAST
RANGE AND WEST SIDE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WHICH AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AND WE COULD SEE THEM DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ONE CONCERN WE HAVE IS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. I DON`T THINK
THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES, BUT WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 13/06Z TAF CYCLE...THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE SMOKE AND HAZE AFFECTING SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH...AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO NEAR BROOKINGS. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MARINE LAYER
AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD ALSO STAY IN A SIMILAR
LOCATION TOMORROW...GENERALLY FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. /SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT FRI 12 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAKENING THERMAL TROUGH GRADIENT WILL BRING A
COMBINATION OF WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS IT
MOVES NORTH AND WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE
WATERS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF RAIN. /SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 131004
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST. THE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AND NOW
THAT NIGHTS ARE BECOMING LONGER, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE COOL
MORNINGS AND HOT AFTERNOONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
WILL HAVE PATCHY AREAS OF SMOKE. SKIES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MARINE
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST NEAR BROOKINGS. IN
FACT IT MADE ITS WAY INTO BROOKINGS. IT HAS SINCE RETREATED BACK
SOUTH, BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND IS EXPECTED TO CREEP
BACK NORTH UP TOWARDS GOLD BEACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT THE MARINE STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND MOST OF THE MARINE
WATERS.

THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PAC NW MONDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER
EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEST AND THE EC IS MUCH WEAKER.
THE NAM HINTS AT INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE OR
NO TRIGGER. THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SOME, BUT
LIFTED INDICIES ARE POSITIVE AND LITTLE OR NO CAPE. THEREFORE
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT KEEPING ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT.
FURTHER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF THE GFS AND EC COME IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM. IF NOTHING ELSE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND IT`S POSSIBLE THE SMOKE COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE UMPQUA BASIN.

THE EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN STARTING TO
UNFOLD STARTING TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR 36N/137W TUESDAY, THEN TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO AN UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EC AND REMAIN WEAKER. EITHER
WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EVENT (AT LEAST IN A RELATIVE SENSE) SINCE LAST SPRING. GIVEN THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF DRYNESS OVER THE REGION, THIS WILL BE WELCOME
NEWS FOR MOST, ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER FOLKS. THE EC IS THE
WETTER OF THE THREE MODELS (GFS AND GEM) AND SUSPECT IT MAY BE TOO
WET. ALSO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUCH THAT THE COAST, COAST
RANGE AND WEST SIDE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WHICH AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AND WE COULD SEE THEM DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE ONE CONCERN WE HAVE IS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE RIDGES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. I DON`T THINK
THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORIES, BUT WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR THE ONGOING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.

DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND ARE LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 13/06Z TAF CYCLE...THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE SMOKE AND HAZE AFFECTING SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH...AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO NEAR BROOKINGS. THE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MARINE LAYER
AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD ALSO STAY IN A SIMILAR
LOCATION TOMORROW...GENERALLY FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. /SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT FRI 12 SEP 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAKENING THERMAL TROUGH GRADIENT WILL BRING A
COMBINATION OF WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS IT
MOVES NORTH AND WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO THE
WATERS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF RAIN. /SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$









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