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000
FXUS66 KMFR 262128
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEAR INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
STRIP, AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
CUMULUS BUILDUPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE ELSE IS
EXPECTED. PERSISTENT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SURGE INLAND TONIGHT, LIKELY REACHING INTO THE WESTERN UMPQUA
AGAIN. 24 HOUR TRENDS ELSEWHERE SHOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES,
BUT ALSO HIGHER MOISTURE, WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHER CROSS-OVER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE POINT BEING:
WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE SAME PLACES WE HAD IT THIS MORNING, AND THAT HAS BEEN
ADDED.

WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD FRIDAY OVER MOST OF OUR AREA AS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL DOWN
COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND
THE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES AS WELL AS THE EAST SIDE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC SYSTEM, SO
THE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IS LOW, BUT SOME RAIN
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WE
DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY) LOOKS DRY AND FAIRLY MILD AREA-WIDE. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FEATURES GENERALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING CONDITIONS AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HELP MAINTAIN SLIGHT TROUGHING OR
ZONAL FLOW. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY WEDNESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LIGHT RAIN COULD
AFFECT MOSTLY THE COAST...UMPQUA BASIN...AND CASCADES NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 140.  ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...AND REINFORCES RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EXPECTED 500MB PATTERN BUT NEITHER ONE SUGGESTS
A BIG WEATHER-MAKER OR RIDGING...SO WEAK TRANSIENT TROUGHS IS THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS.

PERHAPS THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COULD BE
NEAR-FREEZING OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS DURING
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE ALREADY
SHOWS LOW POTENTIAL FOR MEDFORD TO BE 35 DEGREES. IF CLEAR SKIES DO
OCCUR AFTER ONE OF THESE UPCOMING TROUGHS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN SUCH A COOL AIR MASS. SK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE HUMIDITIES ARE TRENDING HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AND ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOW CEILINGS AND POOR
VISIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES ARE TRENDING
LOWER TODAY...AND ONLY PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH SOME WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY...COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH HAS INCREASED NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, BUT
ARE REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THEN VEERING WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING WEST SWELL
MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW END
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 262128
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEAR INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
STRIP, AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
CUMULUS BUILDUPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE ELSE IS
EXPECTED. PERSISTENT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SURGE INLAND TONIGHT, LIKELY REACHING INTO THE WESTERN UMPQUA
AGAIN. 24 HOUR TRENDS ELSEWHERE SHOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES,
BUT ALSO HIGHER MOISTURE, WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHER CROSS-OVER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE POINT BEING:
WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE SAME PLACES WE HAD IT THIS MORNING, AND THAT HAS BEEN
ADDED.

WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD FRIDAY OVER MOST OF OUR AREA AS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL DOWN
COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND
THE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES AS WELL AS THE EAST SIDE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC SYSTEM, SO
THE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IS LOW, BUT SOME RAIN
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WE
DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY) LOOKS DRY AND FAIRLY MILD AREA-WIDE. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FEATURES GENERALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING CONDITIONS AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HELP MAINTAIN SLIGHT TROUGHING OR
ZONAL FLOW. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY WEDNESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LIGHT RAIN COULD
AFFECT MOSTLY THE COAST...UMPQUA BASIN...AND CASCADES NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 140.  ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...AND REINFORCES RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EXPECTED 500MB PATTERN BUT NEITHER ONE SUGGESTS
A BIG WEATHER-MAKER OR RIDGING...SO WEAK TRANSIENT TROUGHS IS THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS.

PERHAPS THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COULD BE
NEAR-FREEZING OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS DURING
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE ALREADY
SHOWS LOW POTENTIAL FOR MEDFORD TO BE 35 DEGREES. IF CLEAR SKIES DO
OCCUR AFTER ONE OF THESE UPCOMING TROUGHS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN SUCH A COOL AIR MASS. SK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE HUMIDITIES ARE TRENDING HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AND ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOW CEILINGS AND POOR
VISIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES ARE TRENDING
LOWER TODAY...AND ONLY PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH SOME WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY...COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH HAS INCREASED NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, BUT
ARE REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THEN VEERING WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING WEST SWELL
MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW END
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 262128
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEAR INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
STRIP, AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
CUMULUS BUILDUPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE ELSE IS
EXPECTED. PERSISTENT STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SURGE INLAND TONIGHT, LIKELY REACHING INTO THE WESTERN UMPQUA
AGAIN. 24 HOUR TRENDS ELSEWHERE SHOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES,
BUT ALSO HIGHER MOISTURE, WHICH WILL YIELD HIGHER CROSS-OVER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE POINT BEING:
WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE SAME PLACES WE HAD IT THIS MORNING, AND THAT HAS BEEN
ADDED.

WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD FRIDAY OVER MOST OF OUR AREA AS
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL DOWN
COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND
THE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THUS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CASCADES AS WELL AS THE EAST SIDE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WET OR DYNAMIC SYSTEM, SO
THE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IS LOW, BUT SOME RAIN
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER EAST OF THE CASCADES, BUT WE
DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH. THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY) LOOKS DRY AND FAIRLY MILD AREA-WIDE. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FEATURES GENERALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING CONDITIONS AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HELP MAINTAIN SLIGHT TROUGHING OR
ZONAL FLOW. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY WEDNESDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOW.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST PLACES ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LIGHT RAIN COULD
AFFECT MOSTLY THE COAST...UMPQUA BASIN...AND CASCADES NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 140.  ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...AND REINFORCES RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EXPECTED 500MB PATTERN BUT NEITHER ONE SUGGESTS
A BIG WEATHER-MAKER OR RIDGING...SO WEAK TRANSIENT TROUGHS IS THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS.

PERHAPS THE SINGLE BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COULD BE
NEAR-FREEZING OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS DURING
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE ALREADY
SHOWS LOW POTENTIAL FOR MEDFORD TO BE 35 DEGREES. IF CLEAR SKIES DO
OCCUR AFTER ONE OF THESE UPCOMING TROUGHS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN SUCH A COOL AIR MASS. SK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE UMPQUA
BASIN AROUND ROSEBURG WHERE HUMIDITIES ARE TRENDING HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AND ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOW CEILINGS AND POOR
VISIBILITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...HUMIDITIES ARE TRENDING
LOWER TODAY...AND ONLY PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ENOUGH ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH SOME WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY...COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CASCADES...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015...A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH HAS INCREASED NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, BUT
ARE REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THEN VEERING WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM
SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING WEST SWELL
MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW END
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261549
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PACNW TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR RECORDS THAT MAY BE BROKEN TODAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW
CLOUD AND FOG IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, AND LOWER ROGUE VALLEYS AS
WELL AS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE IT IS LIKELY TO HINDER
THE WARM UP TODAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, IT WILL BURN OFF THROUGH
THE MORNING, AND THE AIRMASS TENDS TO RESPOND PRETTY QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CRYSTAL CLEAR AND
WILL REMAIN SO TODAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT THE COAST AND OUT TO 5 NM FROM SHORE FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS LIFTING AND BURNING OFF AT THE COAST
AROUND 19Z, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE LATER. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN INCLUDING ROSEBURG AND NEAR GRANTS PASS UNTIL 18Z, THEN
BURNING OFF WITH VFR CIGS INTO TONIGHT. THERE`S A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AT MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET TO
LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261549
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PACNW TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR RECORDS THAT MAY BE BROKEN TODAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW
CLOUD AND FOG IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, AND LOWER ROGUE VALLEYS AS
WELL AS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE IT IS LIKELY TO HINDER
THE WARM UP TODAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, IT WILL BURN OFF THROUGH
THE MORNING, AND THE AIRMASS TENDS TO RESPOND PRETTY QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CRYSTAL CLEAR AND
WILL REMAIN SO TODAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT THE COAST AND OUT TO 5 NM FROM SHORE FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS LIFTING AND BURNING OFF AT THE COAST
AROUND 19Z, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE LATER. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN INCLUDING ROSEBURG AND NEAR GRANTS PASS UNTIL 18Z, THEN
BURNING OFF WITH VFR CIGS INTO TONIGHT. THERE`S A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AT MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET TO
LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261549
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PACNW TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR RECORDS THAT MAY BE BROKEN TODAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW
CLOUD AND FOG IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, AND LOWER ROGUE VALLEYS AS
WELL AS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE IT IS LIKELY TO HINDER
THE WARM UP TODAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, IT WILL BURN OFF THROUGH
THE MORNING, AND THE AIRMASS TENDS TO RESPOND PRETTY QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CRYSTAL CLEAR AND
WILL REMAIN SO TODAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT THE COAST AND OUT TO 5 NM FROM SHORE FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS LIFTING AND BURNING OFF AT THE COAST
AROUND 19Z, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE LATER. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN INCLUDING ROSEBURG AND NEAR GRANTS PASS UNTIL 18Z, THEN
BURNING OFF WITH VFR CIGS INTO TONIGHT. THERE`S A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AT MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET TO
LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261549
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
849 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE PACNW TODAY AND WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR RECORDS THAT MAY BE BROKEN TODAY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LOW
CLOUD AND FOG IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, AND LOWER ROGUE VALLEYS AS
WELL AS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE IT IS LIKELY TO HINDER
THE WARM UP TODAY IN THESE LOCATIONS, IT WILL BURN OFF THROUGH
THE MORNING, AND THE AIRMASS TENDS TO RESPOND PRETTY QUICKLY UNDER
STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. ELSEWHERE, SKIES ARE CRYSTAL CLEAR AND
WILL REMAIN SO TODAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT THE COAST AND OUT TO 5 NM FROM SHORE FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS LIFTING AND BURNING OFF AT THE COAST
AROUND 19Z, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD BE LATER. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, PARTS OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN INCLUDING ROSEBURG AND NEAR GRANTS PASS UNTIL 18Z, THEN
BURNING OFF WITH VFR CIGS INTO TONIGHT. THERE`S A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AROUND 14Z AT MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015... A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET TO
LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261100
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...WITH ONE EXCEPTION, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. A
MARINE PUSH OF IFR CIGS HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO...INCLUDING KOTH/NORTH BEND...AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z THURSDAY MORNING. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OREGON VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 10Z...THEN DIMINISH BY 18Z. THE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND IN THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS ALONG THE RIVERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET
TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/MAP/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261100
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...WITH ONE EXCEPTION, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. A
MARINE PUSH OF IFR CIGS HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO...INCLUDING KOTH/NORTH BEND...AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z THURSDAY MORNING. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OREGON VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 10Z...THEN DIMINISH BY 18Z. THE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND IN THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS ALONG THE RIVERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET
TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/MAP/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261100
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...WITH ONE EXCEPTION, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. A
MARINE PUSH OF IFR CIGS HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO...INCLUDING KOTH/NORTH BEND...AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z THURSDAY MORNING. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OREGON VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 10Z...THEN DIMINISH BY 18Z. THE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND IN THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS ALONG THE RIVERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET
TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/MAP/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261100
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
400 AM PDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, FOR
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. IN FACT, SOME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. OUR
FORECAST OF 79F FOR MEDFORD IS ONE DEGREE SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
80F FOR THE DATE, SET IN 1997. IT IS POSSIBLY, THOUGH NOT LIKELY,
THAT WE WILL REACH 80F TODAY. WE`RE FORECASTING 77F IN ASHLAND,
WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD SET THERE IN 1923. WE ALSO EXPECT
RECORDS TO BE TIED IN MONTAGUE AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY. WE`RE
FORECASTING A RECORD OF 71F IN KLAMATH FALLS, WHERE THE STANDING
RECORD IS 70F SET IN 1986. ALTOGETHER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WHOPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY EAST OF THE COAST RANGE. FROM THE COAST RANGE WESTWARD WE
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES
TO LIFT AND DRIFT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO HIGHS 5 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRENGTHENS
AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WE DO EXPECT IT TO COOL DOWN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE OREGON CASCADES ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE THE
SAME OR WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OREGON
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. THIS MEANS SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ON THE EAST SIDE ON
FRIDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR MASS AND SOME SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE IN THE 0 TO -3C RANGE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING
HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE MUTED BY HIGH CLOUD TO A REASONABLE
DEGREE. FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT A MODEST, BUT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SHOWERS ONTO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, EVEN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

WE EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AT AND ABOVE 8KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER ELEVATIONS, AS WELL, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR THOSE CONDUCTING
PRESCRIBED BURNS. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ON THE PEAKS ARE LIKELY
TO FALL TO BETWEEN 6KFT AND 8KFT DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM
TRACK NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRESCRIBED BURNERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT NEXT WEEK FOR GUSTY
WINDS, AS IT APPEARS WE`LL SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF SUBSTANTIALLY
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...WITH ONE EXCEPTION, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING HIGH CLOUDS. A
MARINE PUSH OF IFR CIGS HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO...INCLUDING KOTH/NORTH BEND...AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z THURSDAY MORNING. IFR STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OREGON VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 10Z...THEN DIMINISH BY 18Z. THE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND IN THE ROGUE AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS ALONG THE RIVERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT THURSDAY 26 MAR 2015...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. EVEN THEN IT MAY ONLY GET
TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A BUILDING
WEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY THAT MAY PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A HIGH AND
STEEP WEST SWELL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/MAP/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260419
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS MODEL DATA HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE. THE
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN THE SATELLITE VIEW BY HIGHER
CLOUDS BUT A SURGE OF STRATUS HAS REACHED NORTH BEND WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR AND IS LIKELY ALREADY PRESENT ALONG MOST OF OUR NORTHERN
COAST.

INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THE EAST SIDE...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES. THE 00Z GFS IS
IN LINE WITH ITS PREVIOUS FEW RUNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A
MEASUREABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE.

THERE ARE STILL NOTEWORTHY MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
SATURDAY FORECAST. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
THE 00Z GFS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND
TRACK EAST TO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA.
WEAK LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
THE SIERRA BUT COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE
MOIST THAN THE GFS WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY LOOKS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. BOTH MODELS
DO INDICATE RIDGING/WARMING SUNDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF WEST
SIDE RAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL.
IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AT KOTH AND KRBG. THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS ALONG THE RIVERS...HOWEVER THE
KMFR TERMINAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. /MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015... WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...VEERING WINDS TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 15 KT OCCURRING IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. SEAS WILL BE SWELL DOMINATED AND ALSO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS BRIEFLY TO SOUTHERLY BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR WINDS AND SEAS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASES. MND

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....LOW CLOUD BROKE UP AS
EXPECTED, AND HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO THIN OUT AND LIFT NORTH AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG MAY RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT IT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. BUT WE SHOULD
SEE MUCH MORE SUN AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
US. THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM EVERYWHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST,
AND SOME WEST SIDE LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. EVEN
THE EAST SIDE WILL BE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 70S.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES ALBEIT A LITTLE LESS WARM THAN
THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEY REMAIN SO
TODAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMICS ARE VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT, I FELT THE INSTABILITY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. I
DID RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN.

THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND LIKELY CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
MOST OF THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PROVIDES US HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME.  THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF THE RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND NEITHER ONE
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CONFIDENCE TOOLS SUGGEST LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH...BUT A GENERAL SUMMARY
OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDES COOLING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES WESTWARD. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/NSK/MND





000
FXUS66 KMFR 260419
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS MODEL DATA HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE. THE
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN THE SATELLITE VIEW BY HIGHER
CLOUDS BUT A SURGE OF STRATUS HAS REACHED NORTH BEND WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR AND IS LIKELY ALREADY PRESENT ALONG MOST OF OUR NORTHERN
COAST.

INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THE EAST SIDE...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES. THE 00Z GFS IS
IN LINE WITH ITS PREVIOUS FEW RUNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A
MEASUREABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE.

THERE ARE STILL NOTEWORTHY MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
SATURDAY FORECAST. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
THE 00Z GFS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND
TRACK EAST TO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA.
WEAK LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
THE SIERRA BUT COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE
MOIST THAN THE GFS WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY LOOKS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. BOTH MODELS
DO INDICATE RIDGING/WARMING SUNDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF WEST
SIDE RAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL.
IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AT KOTH AND KRBG. THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS ALONG THE RIVERS...HOWEVER THE
KMFR TERMINAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. /MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015... WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...VEERING WINDS TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 15 KT OCCURRING IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. SEAS WILL BE SWELL DOMINATED AND ALSO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS BRIEFLY TO SOUTHERLY BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR WINDS AND SEAS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASES. MND

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....LOW CLOUD BROKE UP AS
EXPECTED, AND HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO THIN OUT AND LIFT NORTH AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG MAY RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT IT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. BUT WE SHOULD
SEE MUCH MORE SUN AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
US. THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM EVERYWHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST,
AND SOME WEST SIDE LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. EVEN
THE EAST SIDE WILL BE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 70S.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES ALBEIT A LITTLE LESS WARM THAN
THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEY REMAIN SO
TODAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMICS ARE VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT, I FELT THE INSTABILITY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. I
DID RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN.

THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND LIKELY CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
MOST OF THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PROVIDES US HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME.  THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF THE RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND NEITHER ONE
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CONFIDENCE TOOLS SUGGEST LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH...BUT A GENERAL SUMMARY
OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDES COOLING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES WESTWARD. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/NSK/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260419
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS MODEL DATA HAS BEGUN TO ARRIVE. THE
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE PARTIALLY OBSCURED IN THE SATELLITE VIEW BY HIGHER
CLOUDS BUT A SURGE OF STRATUS HAS REACHED NORTH BEND WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR AND IS LIKELY ALREADY PRESENT ALONG MOST OF OUR NORTHERN
COAST.

INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THE EAST SIDE...AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CASCADES. THE 00Z GFS IS
IN LINE WITH ITS PREVIOUS FEW RUNS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A
MEASUREABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE AT THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE.

THERE ARE STILL NOTEWORTHY MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
SATURDAY FORECAST. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
THE 00Z GFS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND
TRACK EAST TO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA.
WEAK LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
THE SIERRA BUT COULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE
MOIST THAN THE GFS WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY LOOKS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. BOTH MODELS
DO INDICATE RIDGING/WARMING SUNDAY THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF WEST
SIDE RAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...WITH ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL.
IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING AT KOTH AND KRBG. THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS ALONG THE RIVERS...HOWEVER THE
KMFR TERMINAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR ALL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. /MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015... WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...VEERING WINDS TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 15 KT OCCURRING IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. SEAS WILL BE SWELL DOMINATED AND ALSO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS BRIEFLY TO SOUTHERLY BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR WINDS AND SEAS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASES. MND

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....LOW CLOUD BROKE UP AS
EXPECTED, AND HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO THIN OUT AND LIFT NORTH AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG MAY RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT IT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. BUT WE SHOULD
SEE MUCH MORE SUN AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
US. THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM EVERYWHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST,
AND SOME WEST SIDE LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. EVEN
THE EAST SIDE WILL BE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 70S.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES ALBEIT A LITTLE LESS WARM THAN
THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEY REMAIN SO
TODAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMICS ARE VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT, I FELT THE INSTABILITY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. I
DID RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN.

THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND LIKELY CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
MOST OF THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PROVIDES US HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME.  THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF THE RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND NEITHER ONE
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CONFIDENCE TOOLS SUGGEST LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH...BUT A GENERAL SUMMARY
OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDES COOLING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES WESTWARD. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/NSK/MND





000
FXUS66 KMFR 252055
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
155 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....LOW CLOUD BROKE UP AS
EXPECTED, AND HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO THIN OUT AND LIFT NORTH AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG MAY RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT IT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. BUT WE SHOULD
SEE MUCH MORE SUN AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
US. THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM EVERYWHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST,
AND SOME WEST SIDE LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. EVEN
THE EAST SIDE WILL BE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 70S.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES ALBEIT A LITTLE LESS WARM THAN
THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEY REMAIN SO
TODAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMICS ARE VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT, I FELT THE INSTABILITY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. I
DID RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN.

THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND LIKELY CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
MOST OF THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PROVIDES US HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME.  THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF THE RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND NEITHER ONE
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CONFIDENCE TOOLS SUGGEST LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH...BUT A GENERAL SUMMARY
OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDES COOLING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES WESTWARD. SK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE AIR MASS IS DRYING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. TONIGHT...LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND CLEARING ALOFT WILL
HELP IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM AT THE COAST AND UMPQUA
BASIN...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE MEDFORD AND KINGSLEY FIELD TERMINALS
THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015... WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...VEERING WINDS TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 15 KT OCCURRING IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SEAS WILL BE SWELL DOMINATED AND ALSO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS BRIEFLY TO
SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS COULD RETURN BY SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASES. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 252055
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
155 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....LOW CLOUD BROKE UP AS
EXPECTED, AND HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO THIN OUT AND LIFT NORTH AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY STRATUS
AND FOG MAY RETURN TO WEST SIDE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT IT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. BUT WE SHOULD
SEE MUCH MORE SUN AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
US. THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM EVERYWHERE INLAND FROM THE COAST,
AND SOME WEST SIDE LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. EVEN
THE EAST SIDE WILL BE WARM WITH MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 70S.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPERATURES ALBEIT A LITTLE LESS WARM THAN
THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEY REMAIN SO
TODAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMICS ARE VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTENT, I FELT THE INSTABILITY WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CASCADES. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. I
DID RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN.

THE FRONT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND LIKELY CLEAR OF OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
MOST OF THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PROVIDES US HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME.  THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH...BRINGING RAIN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND HOLDS OFF THE RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE BLENDED THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND NEITHER ONE
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. CONFIDENCE TOOLS SUGGEST LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH...BUT A GENERAL SUMMARY
OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK INCLUDES COOLING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES WESTWARD. SK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE AIR MASS IS DRYING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. TONIGHT...LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND CLEARING ALOFT WILL
HELP IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM AT THE COAST AND UMPQUA
BASIN...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE MEDFORD AND KINGSLEY FIELD TERMINALS
THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015... WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...VEERING WINDS TO THE
NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 15 KT OCCURRING IN THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SEAS WILL BE SWELL DOMINATED AND ALSO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WINDS BRIEFLY TO
SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS COULD RETURN BY SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS AND WESTERLY SWELL INCREASES. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251537
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
FILLED IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, BUT AS A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS IN, HIGH
CLOUDS ARE VERY GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW MARCH
SUN TO WORK ON THE LOW CLOUDS, AND THEY SHOULD BE GONE FROM MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING WITH ONLY RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDINESS LEFT.
CLOUD WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE UMPQUA AND NORTH
COAST, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SUN BREAKING OUT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A
VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A TRANSIENT BUT STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACNW. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND 5 NM FROM SHORE UNTIL ABOUT
18Z, THEN BREAK UP WITH VFR CIGS THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THESE AREAS BETWEEN 5-7Z
TONIGHT. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL AROUND 18Z IN THE ROGUE
AND KLAMATH BASIN. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY PLUS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY SHOULD BE THINNER WITH PLENTY OF SUN BREAKS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

WITH THE ADDED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO PUSH CLOUDS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A HIGH POP
BUT LOW QPF EVENT SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH
WINDS AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND, BUT NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE
WAVE WATCH BULLETIN STILL INCREASING WEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS
COULD RESULT IN CHOPPY SEAS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251537
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
837 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
FILLED IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, BUT AS A DIRTY RIDGE BUILDS IN, HIGH
CLOUDS ARE VERY GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW MARCH
SUN TO WORK ON THE LOW CLOUDS, AND THEY SHOULD BE GONE FROM MOST
AREAS BY LATE MORNING WITH ONLY RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDINESS LEFT.
CLOUD WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE UMPQUA AND NORTH
COAST, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SUN BREAKING OUT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A
VERY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A TRANSIENT BUT STRONG RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACNW. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND 5 NM FROM SHORE UNTIL ABOUT
18Z, THEN BREAK UP WITH VFR CIGS THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MARINE STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THESE AREAS BETWEEN 5-7Z
TONIGHT. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
WITH PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL AROUND 18Z IN THE ROGUE
AND KLAMATH BASIN. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY PLUS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY SHOULD BE THINNER WITH PLENTY OF SUN BREAKS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

WITH THE ADDED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO PUSH CLOUDS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A HIGH POP
BUT LOW QPF EVENT SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH
WINDS AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
BLANCO...BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO
NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THIS
WEEKEND, BUT NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE
WAVE WATCH BULLETIN STILL INCREASING WEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS
COULD RESULT IN CHOPPY SEAS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY PLUS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY SHOULD BE THINNER WITH PLENTY OF SUN BREAKS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

WITH THE ADDED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO PUSH CLOUDS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A HIGH POP
BUT LOW QPF EVENT SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT, WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE
MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST, UMPQUA
BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG, AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z TO 15Z IN
KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING
STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN STILL INCREASING WEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT
IN CHOPPY SEAS. -PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/KRS/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY PLUS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY SHOULD BE THINNER WITH PLENTY OF SUN BREAKS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

WITH THE ADDED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO PUSH CLOUDS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A HIGH POP
BUT LOW QPF EVENT SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT, WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE
MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST, UMPQUA
BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG, AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z TO 15Z IN
KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING
STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN STILL INCREASING WEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT
IN CHOPPY SEAS. -PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/KRS/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY PLUS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY SHOULD BE THINNER WITH PLENTY OF SUN BREAKS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

WITH THE ADDED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO PUSH CLOUDS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A HIGH POP
BUT LOW QPF EVENT SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT, WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE
MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST, UMPQUA
BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG, AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z TO 15Z IN
KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING
STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN STILL INCREASING WEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT
IN CHOPPY SEAS. -PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/KRS/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251053
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
353 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF DOUGLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY PLUS THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE ROGUE VALLEY WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY SHOULD BE THINNER WITH PLENTY OF SUN BREAKS ESPECIALLY BY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.

WITH THE ADDED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON...HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH ON THURSDAY TO PUSH CLOUDS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. IT SHOULD BE A HIGH POP
BUT LOW QPF EVENT SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS DRY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT, WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE
MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COAST, UMPQUA
BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG, AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 12Z TO 15Z IN
KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING
STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 25 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORTHERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN STILL INCREASING WEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT
IN CHOPPY SEAS. -PETRUCELLI

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/KRS/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250512
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1012 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS A SHORTWAVE IS TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THAT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 24 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. BUT, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE
WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND,
BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/NSK/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250512
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1012 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS A SHORTWAVE IS TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THAT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 24 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. BUT, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE
WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND,
BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/NSK/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250512
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1012 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS A SHORTWAVE IS TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THAT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 24 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. BUT, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE
WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND,
BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/NSK/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250512
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1012 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AS A SHORTWAVE IS TAKING A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK INTO NORTHWEST OREGON THAT IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 24 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. BUT, SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE
WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND,
BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

KRS/NSK/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250305
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUT,
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/NSK/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250305
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUT,
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/NSK/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250305
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUT,
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/NSK/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250305
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
805 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER
TEH SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BUT, THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARMING TO A MINOR
EXTENT, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL
APPROACH RECORDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WHETHER A WEAK FRONT
ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING
REGARDING THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ALLOW A TROUGH TO APPROACH OR
REACH THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A COLDER/DEEPER, WETTER,
MORE UNSTABLE, AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH THAN
THE 18Z GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO, THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY DO LOOK APPROPRIATE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED.
RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. /DW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG.
ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES
LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND
INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUT,
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE WITH DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY
SEAS. THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND.
-SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

DW/NSK/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250126
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT
ONLY CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE
THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH
FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING STABILITY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS,
BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER
WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250126
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT
ONLY CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE
THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH
FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING STABILITY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS,
BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER
WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250126
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT
ONLY CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE
THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH
FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING STABILITY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS,
BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER
WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250126
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
625 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE
SOME TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT
ONLY CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE
THE UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH
FALLS...LIKELY DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING STABILITY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 620 PM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH
BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS,
BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER
WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 242206
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
306 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...MIXED VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
AND COAST WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND KLAMATH BASIN, BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL
AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE SOME
TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT ONLY
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE
UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT TUESDAY 24 MAR 2015...SEAS HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED, BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING
WITH A MODERATE WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD
BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED AND THE EC
SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242206
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
306 PM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RETURNS. IN
FACT THE ONLY REPORTING SITES IN OUR AREA THAT HAVE PICKED UP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAST HOUR ARE OUR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COUNTIES AND CASCADES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS DONE FOR OUR AREA. ONE MORE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SOME OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 5000 FT AND WILL REMAIN THERE BEFORE RISING FURTHER TO
AROUND 6000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING WARMER, TRANQUIL
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE PEAK OF THIS
WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND JUST TO THE EAST BY
THAT AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH, SQUEEZING IN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, LI`S JUST BELOW
ZERO, OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY PER BOTH THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA SUGGESTS SPLIT FLOW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND A SEPARATE AREA OF ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN OREGON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE HAVE
KEPT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT IF
LIFTED INDICES CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THESE COULD BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

MOST OF THE ENERGY MOVES AWAY BY SUNDAY...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MONDAY...AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT. SUBTLE BUT
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS ON TUESDAY...WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING CONTINUING IN THE EC AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE GFS. THE FORMER SUGGEST CONTINUED SHOWERY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE LATTER INDICATES DRYING. IN ANY CASE...THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE NEAR-TERM WARMTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...MIXED VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE
AND COAST WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE
PREDOMINATE CONDITION IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND KLAMATH BASIN, BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL
AT LEAST REMAIN PARTLY OBSCURED. CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE SOME
TONIGHT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT ONLY
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR ONLY IN THE MOST PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE THE
UMPQUA BASIN NEAR ROSEBURG. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT IN KLAMATH FALLS...LIKELY DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASING STABILITY. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT TUESDAY 24 MAR 2015...SEAS HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED, BUT WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING
WITH A MODERATE WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING WEST SWELL LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD
BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS BASED AND THE EC
SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 241610
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE
EAST SIDE HAVE BEGUN DIMINISHING EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
SUMMER LAKE RAWS IN LAKE COUNTY, ABOUT 5000 FT, IS ONE OF OUR KEY
SITES FOR DETERMINING GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IT IS
ONLY GUSTING TO 36 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY EARLY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING
THE COAST. WITH THIS HEADING OUR WAY, CAN`T RULE OUT THAT
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WON`T WRING OUT MORE MOISTURE FROM THESE CLOUDS,
PRODUCING MORE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. DECIDED TO LET
THIS CONTINUE UNTIL EXPIRATION LATER THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY GOES, EXPECTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO END BY LATE TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WARMING TREND THIS
WEEK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...MIXED VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COAST WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND KLAMATH BASIN, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL AT LEAST REMAIN
PARTLY OBSCURED. STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE AND COAST AND POSSIBLY IN THE KLAMATH BASIN. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS FALLEN,
AS RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
IN AND AROUND BROOKINGS, AND OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT SOME OF THE CASCADE SNOWTEL SITES, BUT WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE OBSERVER AND SPOTTER REPORTS
REALLY START TO COME IN.

THE MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY THREE HOURS TOO SLOW
COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL EVENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS
WEAKENING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST, AND RAIN AND SNOW
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A BIT QUICKER ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
FIT THESE TRENDS, BUT ALSO TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY
SLIDES OVERHEAD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH SNOW
STILL FALLING OVER THE CASCADE PASSES, AND WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE EAST SIDE, WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR EXPECTED EXPIRATION TIMES.

ONCE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS, RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST
COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DISCUSS OTHER THAN
WARMING TEMPERATURES, UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY, REACH HIGHS OF UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND AROUND 70 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL, AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ON SATURDAY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A TROUGH EITHER
CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE OREGON OR
CALIFORNIA COAST, OR APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AS AN
ALREADY CLOSED OFF LOW. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH, AND
VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE, BUT DEPENDING UPON ITS
TRACK AND TIMING, THE RESULT COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY SO HIGH, HAVE KEPT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED LOW, BOTH THE GFS AND EC SEEM
TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT IN A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY,
BUT EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT. NO MATTER THE TRACK OF THE LOW OR THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH, THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. -BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, LOCAL
IFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 10Z. SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INLAND TO
THE CASCADES, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST RIDGE WINDS THROUGH AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
LOW CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. DW

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/BPN/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 241610
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE
EAST SIDE HAVE BEGUN DIMINISHING EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
SUMMER LAKE RAWS IN LAKE COUNTY, ABOUT 5000 FT, IS ONE OF OUR KEY
SITES FOR DETERMINING GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IT IS
ONLY GUSTING TO 36 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS, HAVE CANCELED THE WIND
ADVISORY EARLY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING
THE COAST. WITH THIS HEADING OUR WAY, CAN`T RULE OUT THAT
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WON`T WRING OUT MORE MOISTURE FROM THESE CLOUDS,
PRODUCING MORE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADES. DECIDED TO LET
THIS CONTINUE UNTIL EXPIRATION LATER THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY GOES, EXPECTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO END BY LATE TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WARMING TREND THIS
WEEK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...MIXED VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND COAST WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. VFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND KLAMATH BASIN, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS WILL AT LEAST REMAIN
PARTLY OBSCURED. STABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE AND COAST AND POSSIBLY IN THE KLAMATH BASIN. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS FALLEN,
AS RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
IN AND AROUND BROOKINGS, AND OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT SOME OF THE CASCADE SNOWTEL SITES, BUT WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE OBSERVER AND SPOTTER REPORTS
REALLY START TO COME IN.

THE MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY THREE HOURS TOO SLOW
COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL EVENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS
WEAKENING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST, AND RAIN AND SNOW
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A BIT QUICKER ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
FIT THESE TRENDS, BUT ALSO TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY
SLIDES OVERHEAD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH SNOW
STILL FALLING OVER THE CASCADE PASSES, AND WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE EAST SIDE, WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR EXPECTED EXPIRATION TIMES.

ONCE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS, RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST
COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DISCUSS OTHER THAN
WARMING TEMPERATURES, UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY, REACH HIGHS OF UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND AROUND 70 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL, AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ON SATURDAY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A TROUGH EITHER
CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE OREGON OR
CALIFORNIA COAST, OR APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AS AN
ALREADY CLOSED OFF LOW. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH, AND
VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE, BUT DEPENDING UPON ITS
TRACK AND TIMING, THE RESULT COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY SO HIGH, HAVE KEPT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED LOW, BOTH THE GFS AND EC SEEM
TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT IN A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY,
BUT EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT. NO MATTER THE TRACK OF THE LOW OR THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH, THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. -BPN

AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, LOCAL
IFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 10Z. SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INLAND TO
THE CASCADES, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST RIDGE WINDS THROUGH AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
LOW CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. DW

MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MND/BPN/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240943
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS FALLEN,
AS RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
IN AND AROUND BROOKINGS, AND OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT SOME OF THE CASCADE SNOWTEL SITES, BUT WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE OBSERVER AND SPOTTER REPORTS
REALLY START TO COME IN.

THE MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY THREE HOURS TOO SLOW
COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL EVENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS
WEAKENING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST, AND RAIN AND SNOW
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A BIT QUICKER ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
FIT THESE TRENDS, BUT ALSO TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY
SLIDES OVERHEAD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH SNOW
STILL FALLING OVER THE CASCADE PASSES, AND WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE EAST SIDE, WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR EXPECTED EXPIRATION TIMES.

ONCE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS, RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST
COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DISCUSS OTHER THAN
WARMING TEMPERATURES, UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY, REACH HIGHS OF UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND AROUND 70 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL, AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ON SATURDAY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A TROUGH EITHER
CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE OREGON OR
CALIFORNIA COAST, OR APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AS AN
ALREADY CLOSED OFF LOW. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH, AND
VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE, BUT DEPENDING UPON ITS
TRACK AND TIMING, THE RESULT COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY SO HIGH, HAVE KEPT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED LOW, BOTH THE GFS AND EC SEEM
TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT IN A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY,
BUT EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT. NO MATTER THE TRACK OF THE LOW OR THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH, THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, LOCAL
IFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 10Z. SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INLAND TO
THE CASCADES, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST RIDGE WINDS THROUGH AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
LOW CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/MAP/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240943
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS FALLEN,
AS RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
IN AND AROUND BROOKINGS, AND OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT SOME OF THE CASCADE SNOWTEL SITES, BUT WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE OBSERVER AND SPOTTER REPORTS
REALLY START TO COME IN.

THE MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY THREE HOURS TOO SLOW
COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL EVENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS
WEAKENING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST, AND RAIN AND SNOW
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A BIT QUICKER ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
FIT THESE TRENDS, BUT ALSO TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY
SLIDES OVERHEAD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH SNOW
STILL FALLING OVER THE CASCADE PASSES, AND WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE EAST SIDE, WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR EXPECTED EXPIRATION TIMES.

ONCE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS, RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST
COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DISCUSS OTHER THAN
WARMING TEMPERATURES, UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY, REACH HIGHS OF UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND AROUND 70 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL, AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ON SATURDAY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A TROUGH EITHER
CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE OREGON OR
CALIFORNIA COAST, OR APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AS AN
ALREADY CLOSED OFF LOW. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH, AND
VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE, BUT DEPENDING UPON ITS
TRACK AND TIMING, THE RESULT COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY SO HIGH, HAVE KEPT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED LOW, BOTH THE GFS AND EC SEEM
TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT IN A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY,
BUT EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT. NO MATTER THE TRACK OF THE LOW OR THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH, THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, LOCAL
IFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 10Z. SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INLAND TO
THE CASCADES, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST RIDGE WINDS THROUGH AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
LOW CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/MAP/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240943
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS FALLEN,
AS RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
IN AND AROUND BROOKINGS, AND OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT SOME OF THE CASCADE SNOWTEL SITES, BUT WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE OBSERVER AND SPOTTER REPORTS
REALLY START TO COME IN.

THE MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY THREE HOURS TOO SLOW
COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL EVENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS
WEAKENING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST, AND RAIN AND SNOW
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A BIT QUICKER ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
FIT THESE TRENDS, BUT ALSO TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY
SLIDES OVERHEAD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH SNOW
STILL FALLING OVER THE CASCADE PASSES, AND WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE EAST SIDE, WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR EXPECTED EXPIRATION TIMES.

ONCE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS, RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST
COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DISCUSS OTHER THAN
WARMING TEMPERATURES, UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY, REACH HIGHS OF UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND AROUND 70 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL, AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ON SATURDAY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A TROUGH EITHER
CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE OREGON OR
CALIFORNIA COAST, OR APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AS AN
ALREADY CLOSED OFF LOW. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH, AND
VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE, BUT DEPENDING UPON ITS
TRACK AND TIMING, THE RESULT COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY SO HIGH, HAVE KEPT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED LOW, BOTH THE GFS AND EC SEEM
TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT IN A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY,
BUT EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT. NO MATTER THE TRACK OF THE LOW OR THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH, THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, LOCAL
IFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 10Z. SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INLAND TO
THE CASCADES, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST RIDGE WINDS THROUGH AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
LOW CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/MAP/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240943
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS FALLEN,
AS RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING. HAVE
RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
IN AND AROUND BROOKINGS, AND OVER 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT SOME OF THE CASCADE SNOWTEL SITES, BUT WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE OBSERVER AND SPOTTER REPORTS
REALLY START TO COME IN.

THE MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN ROUGHLY THREE HOURS TOO SLOW
COMPARED TO THE ACTUAL EVENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS
WEAKENING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED AT THE COAST, AND RAIN AND SNOW
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A BIT QUICKER ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
FIT THESE TRENDS, BUT ALSO TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE QUICKLY
SLIDES OVERHEAD ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH SNOW
STILL FALLING OVER THE CASCADE PASSES, AND WINDS CONTINUING OVER
THE EAST SIDE, WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL THEIR EXPECTED EXPIRATION TIMES.

ONCE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS, RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST
COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DISCUSS OTHER THAN
WARMING TEMPERATURES, UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF. UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
CONSIDERABLY, REACH HIGHS OF UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD MEAN HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES IN
THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND AROUND 70 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN COOL, AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ON SATURDAY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A TROUGH EITHER
CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE OREGON OR
CALIFORNIA COAST, OR APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AS AN
ALREADY CLOSED OFF LOW. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH, AND
VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE, BUT DEPENDING UPON ITS
TRACK AND TIMING, THE RESULT COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY SO HIGH, HAVE KEPT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSED LOW, BOTH THE GFS AND EC SEEM
TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT IN A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY,
BUT EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NECESSARY,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE
EVIDENT. NO MATTER THE TRACK OF THE LOW OR THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH, THE LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, LOCAL
IFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE COAST THROUGH AROUND 10Z. SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INLAND TO
THE CASCADES, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST RIDGE WINDS THROUGH AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING WITH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
LOW CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. DW


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 23 MAR 2015...WINDS ANS SEAS
HAVE EASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS MORNING. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT WIND GUST
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED, BUT
WILL NOT DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE
WEST SWELL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING
NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT. THE GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS DIVERGE STARTING ON
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WAVE WATCH BULLETIN SHOWS A INCREASING
WEST SWELL LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT ALSO SHOWS INCREASING NORTH
WIND WAVE WHICH WOULD BRING CHOPPY SEAS, BUT THE BULLETIN IS GFS
BASED AND THE EC SOLUTION SHOWS MUCH WEAKER WINDS. FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/MAP/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240433
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY COASTAL RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AT INLAND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND
4500 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW FOCUSED ON THE CRATER LAKE/DIAMOND
LAKE AREA.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST BEGAN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NEW GFS DATA AIMS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...INTO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. COASTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR NEARLY AN INCH AND A
HALF AT RED MOUND IN THE CURRY COUNTY COASTAL RANGE. STORM TOTALS
SHOULD END UP EXCEEDING TWICE THAT AMOUNT. ALSO, PEAK WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN RECORDED OF 49 MPH AT FLYNN PRAIRIE, 56 MPH AT PORT
ORFORD, AND 60 MPH AT HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. IT IS ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY
INLAND...INCLUDING GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE. COASTAL WINDS
ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW, BUT THE PEAK WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT ON
FRIDAY THEN A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN IN EITHER LAST
NIGHT`S OR THIS MORNING`S GFS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. INLAND,
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN RAIN
AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL. EAST OF
THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...GALE FORCE
WINDS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REACH A PEAK LATE THIS
EVENING THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND A MODERATE WEST SWELL. STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
/DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO
     5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

DW/JRS/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240433
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY COASTAL RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AT INLAND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND
4500 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW FOCUSED ON THE CRATER LAKE/DIAMOND
LAKE AREA.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST BEGAN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NEW GFS DATA AIMS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...INTO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. COASTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR NEARLY AN INCH AND A
HALF AT RED MOUND IN THE CURRY COUNTY COASTAL RANGE. STORM TOTALS
SHOULD END UP EXCEEDING TWICE THAT AMOUNT. ALSO, PEAK WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN RECORDED OF 49 MPH AT FLYNN PRAIRIE, 56 MPH AT PORT
ORFORD, AND 60 MPH AT HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. IT IS ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY
INLAND...INCLUDING GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE. COASTAL WINDS
ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW, BUT THE PEAK WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT ON
FRIDAY THEN A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN IN EITHER LAST
NIGHT`S OR THIS MORNING`S GFS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. INLAND,
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN RAIN
AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL. EAST OF
THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...GALE FORCE
WINDS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REACH A PEAK LATE THIS
EVENING THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND A MODERATE WEST SWELL. STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
/DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO
     5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

DW/JRS/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240433
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY COASTAL RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AT INLAND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND
4500 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW FOCUSED ON THE CRATER LAKE/DIAMOND
LAKE AREA.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST BEGAN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NEW GFS DATA AIMS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...INTO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. COASTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR NEARLY AN INCH AND A
HALF AT RED MOUND IN THE CURRY COUNTY COASTAL RANGE. STORM TOTALS
SHOULD END UP EXCEEDING TWICE THAT AMOUNT. ALSO, PEAK WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN RECORDED OF 49 MPH AT FLYNN PRAIRIE, 56 MPH AT PORT
ORFORD, AND 60 MPH AT HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. IT IS ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY
INLAND...INCLUDING GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE. COASTAL WINDS
ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW, BUT THE PEAK WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT ON
FRIDAY THEN A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN IN EITHER LAST
NIGHT`S OR THIS MORNING`S GFS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. INLAND,
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN RAIN
AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL. EAST OF
THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...GALE FORCE
WINDS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REACH A PEAK LATE THIS
EVENING THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND A MODERATE WEST SWELL. STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
/DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO
     5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

DW/JRS/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240433
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
933 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY COASTAL RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AT INLAND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS AFTER
SUNRISE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND
4500 FEET OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW FOCUSED ON THE CRATER LAKE/DIAMOND
LAKE AREA.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST BEGAN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BUT THE NEW GFS DATA AIMS THE
STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...INTO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. COASTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AROUND A HALF AN INCH
TO AN INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR NEARLY AN INCH AND A
HALF AT RED MOUND IN THE CURRY COUNTY COASTAL RANGE. STORM TOTALS
SHOULD END UP EXCEEDING TWICE THAT AMOUNT. ALSO, PEAK WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN RECORDED OF 49 MPH AT FLYNN PRAIRIE, 56 MPH AT PORT
ORFORD, AND 60 MPH AT HUMBUG MOUNTAIN. IT IS ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY
INLAND...INCLUDING GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE. COASTAL WINDS
ARE LIKELY PEAKING NOW, BUT THE PEAK WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT ON
FRIDAY THEN A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN IN EITHER LAST
NIGHT`S OR THIS MORNING`S GFS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. INLAND,
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN RAIN
AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL. EAST OF
THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...GALE FORCE
WINDS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REACH A PEAK LATE THIS
EVENING THEN EASE INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND A MODERATE WEST SWELL. STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
/DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT
     TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO
     5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

DW/JRS/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240022 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
522 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INLAND, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN RAIN AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL.
EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

MAS/TRW/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240022 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
522 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INLAND, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN RAIN AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL.
EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

MAS/TRW/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240022 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
522 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INLAND, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN RAIN AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL.
EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

MAS/TRW/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240022 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
522 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH COAST OF OREGON LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON WITH 45 KT IN SOME EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT KOTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INLAND, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR TONIGHT WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN RAIN AND SNOW. RIDGE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG TONIGHT AS WELL.
EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. LOW CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP AROUND 130W THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THICK CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
OVER-RUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPREADING INLAND WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. STRATIFORM RAIN CAN ALREADY BEEN SEEN
EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE ON THE KMFR RADAR, AND
WEBCAMS AND OBS SHOW THAT IT`S ALREADY RAINING AT A GOOD CLIP
ALONG THE COAST. STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST AND A STRONG
UPPER JET NOSES IN.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR LINCOLN CITY, OR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS IN THIS REGARD. MOST OF THE
WIND AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER WHICH PUTS THE IMPACTS SQUARELY OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN NOW AND NOON TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH COAST TO 3-4 INCHES AT THE SOUTH COAST.
INLAND WEST SIDE AREAS ARE LOOKING AT 0.75-1 INCH WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE EAST SIDE AND MOST OF NORCAL.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE USUAL PONDING AND RUNOFF AT THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING.

MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 4500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WITH DEEP, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW, THE CASCADES WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF IT. WE ARE EXPECTING A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW AROUND CRATER
AND DIAMOND LAKES WITH LESSER (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT) AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. WHILE SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT FOR
A WHILE TONIGHT, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS ON I5 - UNLESS THE SNOW COMES DOWN MUCH
HARDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THAT IS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THAT. SNOW WILL ALSO SPILL OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS RISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 97 CORRIDOR OVER
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA. SEE PDXWSWMFR FOR DETAILS.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND. THE COAST
(ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST) AND MOUNTAINS WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND. WHILE THIS IS NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR HIGH WIND ON THE EAST
SIDE, AND IT COMES AT NIGHT WHEN STABILITY TENDS TO LIMIT WIND,
WE SHOULD SEE SOME WIND MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. SEE PDXNPWMFR
FOR DETAILS.

THE IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL
DRY OUT AND WARM UP WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS IT
WILL WAVER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.  THE
EC...GFS...AND DGEX ALL CONCUR ON THIS SCENARIO.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND.  THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE EC...GFS...AND DGEX NOW ALL AGREE ON HOW THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN WITH A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BUT DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH A
SHALLOWER WAVE WHILE THE EC HAS THE DEEPEST CUTOFF LOW AND LAGS IT
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS DIFFERENCE HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT
ON THE SUNDAY FORECAST...SEE BELOW.

THE WEEKEND SCENARIO COULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
LOCAL WEATHER AS THIS IS A CLASSIC THUNDERSTORM PATTERN DURING THE
LATE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. ITS A BIT EARLY...BUT THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND IT WILL BE PLENTY WARM
IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SHOWERS FOR
NOW BUT THEY MAY BE UPGRADED TO THUNDERSTORMS DOWN THE LINE.

ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS
AND DGEX SHOWS A LOT LESS SUPPORT ON SUNDAY AS THE WAVE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE COME AROUND TO
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE THE SLOWER EC STILL KEEPS THE WAVE OFFSHORE
AND FARTHER SOUTH...WITH SOUTH WINDS ALOFT HANGING ON.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FRIDAY
HIGHS WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE BIG COOLDOWN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EAST
OF THE CASCADES. -JRS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY 23 MAR 2015...LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS MAY RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ030.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ027-028-617-621-623-624.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
 FOR PZZ356-376.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
 PZZ350-356-370-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT
 TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

MAS/TRW/JRS




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