Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KMFR 122233
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
233 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING INLAND AND BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE CASCADES. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
BEHIND THIS FRONT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS ARE
NEAR 7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 6000
FEET IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THIS EVENING...THEN LOWERING
DOWN TO 5000 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH.

ON SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE PACNW SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE
BLANCO NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THEN THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION, PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND
INCH OR HIGHER OFF THE COAST AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE WARM
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES.

AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET...RISING TO AROUND
8000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BREEZY AND WESTERLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SUMMER LAKE
AREA. WEST OF THE CASCADES AND IN VALLEYS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS,
MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

FOR MONDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BRINGING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THE AREA. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
FOG TO VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LONG PERIOD RIDGING
WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES AS THE TERM BEGINS TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
SOMEWHAT CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE CONDITIONS WON`T
LAST LONG AS THE WEST COAST COMES UNDER FIRE FROM A LARGE PACIFIC
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OF ON THE SPEED OF
THIS TROUGH, SLOWING IT DOWN BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS LOW NOT JUST DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES, BUT ALSO TO A
WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTION, AS EVIDENCED BY THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALL SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF STRENGTHS AND
TRACKS FOR THE SYSTEM.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE
DETERMINATIVE ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH SLOWS THE ONSET OF THE SYSTEM,
AND KEEPS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THURSDAY,
THE MODELS SUITES ARE EVEN MORE DIVERSE, SO WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE
TO BUILD ON, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERM, MAINLY TO ADDRESS A SECOND
TROUGH DUE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/18Z TAF CYCLE... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND
TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MANY WEST
SIDE LOCATIONS MAY ALSO DROP INTO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WHEN
CONDITIONS COULD DEGRADE TO MVFR. -BPN/SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...A MODERATE WEST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASED WIND
WAVES AND COMBINED SEAS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM CAPE BLANCO
NORTHWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 121654
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OFFSHORE INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. SO HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IN JACKSON AND
EASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTIES.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. THEN
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY.
ONSHORE MOIST FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL
DEGRADE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. A MIX
OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD DEGRADE TO
MVFR...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0830 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AT LEAST. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  -BPN/SK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MEDFORD WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NW LAKE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MUCH LESS RAINFALL
AMOUNT THAN BEFORE AND WE HAVE TRENDED THE QPF FORECAST DOWNWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES ALTHOUGH CRATER LAKE
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND IN THE CASCADES
BUT THE TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS TOWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT AND SHOWED MUCH LESS WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW STRONG WINDS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD DEGRADE TO
MVFR...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 0330 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HIGH WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES AT LEAST. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 121654
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OFFSHORE INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
VALUES THAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. SO HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE IN JACKSON AND
EASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTIES.

BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT. THEN
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY.
ONSHORE MOIST FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON. AREAS
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL
DEGRADE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. A MIX
OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CONDITIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD DEGRADE TO
MVFR...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SK


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0830 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AT LEAST. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  -BPN/SK


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MEDFORD WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NW LAKE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MUCH LESS RAINFALL
AMOUNT THAN BEFORE AND WE HAVE TRENDED THE QPF FORECAST DOWNWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES ALTHOUGH CRATER LAKE
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND IN THE CASCADES
BUT THE TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS TOWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT AND SHOWED MUCH LESS WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW STRONG WINDS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD DEGRADE TO
MVFR...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SK

MARINE...UPDATED 0330 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HIGH WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES AT LEAST. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 121416
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
615 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MEDFORD WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NW LAKE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MUCH LESS RAINFALL
AMOUNT THAN BEFORE AND WE HAVE TRENDED THE QPF FORECAST DOWNWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES ALTHOUGH CRATER LAKE
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND IN THE CASCADES
BUT THE TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS TOWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT AND SHOWED MUCH LESS WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW STRONG WINDS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
SPREAD TOWARD THE CASCADES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES COULD DEGRADE TO
MVFR...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0330 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HIGH WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES AT LEAST. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 121142
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MEDFORD WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NW LAKE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MUCH LESS RAINFALL
AMOUNT THAN BEFORE AND WE HAVE TRENDED THE QPF FORECAST DOWNWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES ALTHOUGH CRATER LAKE
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND IN THE CASCADES
BUT THE TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS TOWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT AND SHOWED MUCH LESS WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW STRONG WINDS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH AROUND 10Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 19Z LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. THESE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING SOUTHWEST OREGON WHILE CIGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0330 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HIGH WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES AT LEAST. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 121142
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MEDFORD WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NW LAKE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MUCH LESS RAINFALL
AMOUNT THAN BEFORE AND WE HAVE TRENDED THE QPF FORECAST DOWNWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES ALTHOUGH CRATER LAKE
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND IN THE CASCADES
BUT THE TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS TOWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT AND SHOWED MUCH LESS WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW STRONG WINDS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH AROUND 10Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 19Z LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. THESE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING SOUTHWEST OREGON WHILE CIGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0330 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HIGH WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES AT LEAST. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 121142
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
342 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT
TERM MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MEDFORD WILL SEE MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN KLAMATH AND NW LAKE
COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TREND IS FOR A MUCH LESS RAINFALL
AMOUNT THAN BEFORE AND WE HAVE TRENDED THE QPF FORECAST DOWNWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES ALTHOUGH CRATER LAKE
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND IN THE CASCADES
BUT THE TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS TOWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT AND SHOWED MUCH LESS WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT VERY HIGH ON HOW STRONG WINDS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/06Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH AROUND 10Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY 19Z LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. THESE LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING SOUTHWEST OREGON WHILE CIGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0330 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016...HIGH WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES AT LEAST. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 120531
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
931 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECASTS OF THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION QUANTITY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE AND WILL TRACK
EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL RANGE...TAPERING TO
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF KLAMATH COUNTY AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU
COUNTY. WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER, THIS WILL BE A LIGHT DRIZZLY
RAIN WHERE IT DOES RAIN INLAND. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE ITS FOCUS NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT THE GFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY
DIMINISHING AS ONE TRAVELS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE NEXT TROUGH ARE STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY IN INDICATING A CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN AND THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AT MID-WEEK. THE
00Z GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH A FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FROM AROUND MT SHASTA SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
-JRS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016...MIXED HIGH WEST
SWELL AT 19 TO 20 SECONDS AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 10 TO 11
SECONDS WILL STEEPEN AND INCREASE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PERIOD BECOMING 17 TO 18 SECONDS. SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY
WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 14 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDE TO 12
FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...REBUILD TO 12 TO 13 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY. A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. -JRS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE THINNING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
35N/140W. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THIS AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. I DON`T
THINK RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN
PORTIONS OF COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES. EVEN THEN, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN DECREASING, THEN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE PLOTS START IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST SHUNTING SYSTEMS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
THE MODEL PLOTS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE...BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE
PLOTS...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY AGREEMENT WITH PLOTS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

DW/MAP/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 120531
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
931 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECASTS OF THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION QUANTITY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE AND WILL TRACK
EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL RANGE...TAPERING TO
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF KLAMATH COUNTY AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU
COUNTY. WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER, THIS WILL BE A LIGHT DRIZZLY
RAIN WHERE IT DOES RAIN INLAND. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE ITS FOCUS NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT THE GFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY
DIMINISHING AS ONE TRAVELS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE NEXT TROUGH ARE STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY IN INDICATING A CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN AND THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AT MID-WEEK. THE
00Z GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH A FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FROM AROUND MT SHASTA SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
-JRS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016...MIXED HIGH WEST
SWELL AT 19 TO 20 SECONDS AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 10 TO 11
SECONDS WILL STEEPEN AND INCREASE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PERIOD BECOMING 17 TO 18 SECONDS. SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY
WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 14 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDE TO 12
FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...REBUILD TO 12 TO 13 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY. A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. -JRS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE THINNING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
35N/140W. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THIS AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. I DON`T
THINK RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN
PORTIONS OF COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES. EVEN THEN, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN DECREASING, THEN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE PLOTS START IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST SHUNTING SYSTEMS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
THE MODEL PLOTS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE...BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE
PLOTS...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY AGREEMENT WITH PLOTS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

DW/MAP/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 120531
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
931 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECASTS OF THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION QUANTITY TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE AND WILL TRACK
EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL RANGE...TAPERING TO
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF KLAMATH COUNTY AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU
COUNTY. WITH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER, THIS WILL BE A LIGHT DRIZZLY
RAIN WHERE IT DOES RAIN INLAND. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HAVE ITS FOCUS NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT THE GFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY
DIMINISHING AS ONE TRAVELS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
TIMING...STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE NEXT TROUGH ARE STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY IN INDICATING A CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN AND THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SYSTEM AT MID-WEEK. THE
00Z GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH A FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
FROM AROUND MT SHASTA SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
-JRS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016...MIXED HIGH WEST
SWELL AT 19 TO 20 SECONDS AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 10 TO 11
SECONDS WILL STEEPEN AND INCREASE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
PERIOD BECOMING 17 TO 18 SECONDS. SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN WESTERLY
WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 13 TO 14 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDE TO 12
FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...REBUILD TO 12 TO 13 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY. A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. -JRS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE THINNING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
35N/140W. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THIS AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. I DON`T
THINK RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN
PORTIONS OF COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES. EVEN THEN, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN DECREASING, THEN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE PLOTS START IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST SHUNTING SYSTEMS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
THE MODEL PLOTS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE...BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE
PLOTS...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY AGREEMENT WITH PLOTS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

DW/MAP/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 112241
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE THINNING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
35N/140W. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THIS AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. I DON`T
THINK RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN
PORTIONS OF COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES. EVEN THEN, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN DECREASING, THEN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE PLOTS START IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST SHUNTING SYSTEMS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
THE MODEL PLOTS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE...BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE
PLOTS...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY AGREEMENT WITH PLOTS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
-JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016...MIXED WEST SWELL AT
19 TO 20 SECONDS AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 17 TO 18 SECONDS TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN WESTERLY WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 13 TO 14 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDE TO 12 FEET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...REBUILD TO 12 TO 13 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ370.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 112241
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE THINNING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
35N/140W. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THIS AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. I DON`T
THINK RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN
PORTIONS OF COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES. EVEN THEN, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN DECREASING, THEN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE PLOTS START IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST SHUNTING SYSTEMS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
THE MODEL PLOTS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE...BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE
PLOTS...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY AGREEMENT WITH PLOTS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
-JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016...MIXED WEST SWELL AT
19 TO 20 SECONDS AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 17 TO 18 SECONDS TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN WESTERLY WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 13 TO 14 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDE TO 12 FEET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...REBUILD TO 12 TO 13 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ370.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 112241
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE THINNING OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
35N/140W. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT HRRR MODEL SUGGEST THIS AND IS IN LINE
WITH THE NAM AND GFS. THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE
MARINE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. I DON`T
THINK RAINFALL WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND IN
PORTIONS OF COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES. EVEN THEN, QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER WITH QPF AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN DECREASING, THEN ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE PLOTS START IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST SHUNTING SYSTEMS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT
THE MODEL PLOTS SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE...BUT THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING OF THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS FOR ALL OF THE
PLOTS...BUT THAT IS THE ONLY AGREEMENT WITH PLOTS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE GONE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. -SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/00Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED.
-JRS


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016...MIXED WEST SWELL AT
19 TO 20 SECONDS AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT 17 TO 18 SECONDS TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN WESTERLY WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 13 TO 14 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SUBSIDE TO 12 FEET
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...REBUILD TO 12 TO 13 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL BRING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SATURDAY. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. -JRS


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ370.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 111702
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TAKING ALL THE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN
IT`S WAKE SOME CLEARING IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND SOME OF THIS COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST
MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND
NAM ALSO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE LOWERED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
PRIMARY AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD,
AND GREATEST OVER THE COAST RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 305 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016...LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
LIKELY TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. NO
RAIN HAS HIT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES YET, BUT RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES,
AND RADAR IS SHOWING A LOT MORE SHOWERS OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING OUR WAY. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BEING CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WEST SIDE, BUT SOME SHOWERS
CERTAINLY COULD DRIFT OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS MORNING.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
(ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO CRATER LAKE AND MT
ASHLAND BY DAY`S END, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BY THEN. POPS WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST LIKELY ON THE
WEST SIDE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
OUGHT TO BE DRY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING REGARDING SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS ON SUNDAY. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS IT WAY TO THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
COULD DROP DOWN TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 111702
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TAKING ALL THE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN
IT`S WAKE SOME CLEARING IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND SOME OF THIS COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST
MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND
NAM ALSO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE LOWERED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
PRIMARY AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD,
AND GREATEST OVER THE COAST RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 305 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016...LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
LIKELY TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. NO
RAIN HAS HIT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES YET, BUT RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES,
AND RADAR IS SHOWING A LOT MORE SHOWERS OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING OUR WAY. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BEING CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WEST SIDE, BUT SOME SHOWERS
CERTAINLY COULD DRIFT OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS MORNING.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
(ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO CRATER LAKE AND MT
ASHLAND BY DAY`S END, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BY THEN. POPS WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST LIKELY ON THE
WEST SIDE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
OUGHT TO BE DRY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING REGARDING SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS ON SUNDAY. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS IT WAY TO THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
COULD DROP DOWN TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 111702
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TAKING ALL THE SHOWERS WITH IT. IN
IT`S WAKE SOME CLEARING IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN CAL AND
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND SOME OF THIS COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST
MOST HOURS AND LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND
NAM ALSO SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, POPS WILL BE LOWERED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOVE ONSHORE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
PRIMARY AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD,
AND GREATEST OVER THE COAST RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 305 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016...LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
LIKELY TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BTL


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. NO
RAIN HAS HIT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES YET, BUT RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES,
AND RADAR IS SHOWING A LOT MORE SHOWERS OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING OUR WAY. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BEING CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WEST SIDE, BUT SOME SHOWERS
CERTAINLY COULD DRIFT OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS MORNING.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
(ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO CRATER LAKE AND MT
ASHLAND BY DAY`S END, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BY THEN. POPS WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST LIKELY ON THE
WEST SIDE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
OUGHT TO BE DRY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING REGARDING SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS ON SUNDAY. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS IT WAY TO THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
COULD DROP DOWN TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 111154
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
354 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. NO
RAIN HAS HIT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES YET, BUT RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES,
AND RADAR IS SHOWING A LOT MORE SHOWERS OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING OUR WAY. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BEING CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WEST SIDE, BUT SOME SHOWERS
CERTAINLY COULD DRIFT OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS MORNING.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
(ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO CRATER LAKE AND MT
ASHLAND BY DAY`S END, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BY THEN. POPS WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST LIKELY ON THE
WEST SIDE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
OUGHT TO BE DRY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING REGARDING SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS ON SUNDAY. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS IT WAY TO THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
COULD DROP DOWN TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PRIMARY AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD, AND GREATEST OVER THE COAST
RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 305 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016...LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
LIKELY TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ370-350.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 111154
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
354 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. NO
RAIN HAS HIT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES YET, BUT RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES,
AND RADAR IS SHOWING A LOT MORE SHOWERS OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING OUR WAY. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BEING CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WEST SIDE, BUT SOME SHOWERS
CERTAINLY COULD DRIFT OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS MORNING.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
(ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO CRATER LAKE AND MT
ASHLAND BY DAY`S END, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BY THEN. POPS WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST LIKELY ON THE
WEST SIDE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
OUGHT TO BE DRY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING REGARDING SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS ON SUNDAY. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS IT WAY TO THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
COULD DROP DOWN TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND PRIMARY AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD, AND GREATEST OVER THE COAST
RANGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 305 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016...LONG PERIOD WEST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER A BREAK ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY ANOTHER FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
LIKELY TO REBUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
  FOR PZZ370-350.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 111016
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
216 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS KICKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. NO
RAIN HAS HIT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES YET, BUT RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING THROUGH RIGHT NOW. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES,
AND RADAR IS SHOWING A LOT MORE SHOWERS OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA
COAST MOVING OUR WAY. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BEING CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WEST SIDE, BUT SOME SHOWERS
CERTAINLY COULD DRIFT OVER ONTO THE EAST SIDE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED THIS MORNING.

WE WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO MOST WEST SIDE LOCATIONS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. WE`RE
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RAIN WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
(ABOVE 8000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY), SO IT WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SNOW MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO CRATER LAKE AND MT
ASHLAND BY DAY`S END, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BY THEN. POPS WERE RAISED TO AT LEAST LIKELY ON THE
WEST SIDE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
OUGHT TO BE DRY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING REGARDING SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS ON SUNDAY. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS
KEEPS IT WAY TO THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THE ECMWF THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM
THE COAST TO THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT
SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER
THE EAST SIDE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
COULD DROP DOWN TO 3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
-SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THURSDAY EVENING THOUGH WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE WILL ALSO BE LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016...MODERATE LONG
PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BECOME HIGH THURSDAY EVENING AND INCREASE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY THEN REMAIN HIGH BUT STEEPEN INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 110520
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS IS IN AND THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE BUT NOT STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES
AT 8000 TO 10000 FEET. BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE
RAIN...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FLURRIES
WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 9000 FEET.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT...HAS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING LIGHT MAINLY WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE WEAKNESS OF
THE SYSTEM IS REPRESENTED BY BOTH THE EXPECTED QPF...GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO ONLY AROUND 5500 TO 6000 FEET.

A FOLLOWING SYSTEM BRUSHING PAST TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE BROKEN
BUT THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK FOLLOWING DISTURBANCES CONTINUING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS WITH THE OTHERS...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE
HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER/COLDER IS POSSIBLE AT MID-WEEK...REACHING THE COAST AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED NEAR THE COAST AND IN
THE COAST RANGE...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
-JRS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE WEST SWELL
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. -JRS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW TO OUR EAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS SET UP BRINGING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA THEN LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT INLAND TONIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE
COVERAGE OF THE QPF, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IN
SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY
WE HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO INCREASE THEM AT THIS POINT.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF
ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE  ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA MONDAY
WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS IT WAY TO
THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE ECWMF
THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE
COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER THE EAST SIDE.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT COULD DROP DOWN TO
3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. -SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$

DW/MAP/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 110520
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS IS IN AND THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE BUT NOT STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES
AT 8000 TO 10000 FEET. BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE
RAIN...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FLURRIES
WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 9000 FEET.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT...HAS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING LIGHT MAINLY WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE WEAKNESS OF
THE SYSTEM IS REPRESENTED BY BOTH THE EXPECTED QPF...GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO ONLY AROUND 5500 TO 6000 FEET.

A FOLLOWING SYSTEM BRUSHING PAST TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE BROKEN
BUT THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK FOLLOWING DISTURBANCES CONTINUING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS WITH THE OTHERS...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE
HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER/COLDER IS POSSIBLE AT MID-WEEK...REACHING THE COAST AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED NEAR THE COAST AND IN
THE COAST RANGE...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
-JRS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE WEST SWELL
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. -JRS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW TO OUR EAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS SET UP BRINGING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA THEN LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT INLAND TONIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE
COVERAGE OF THE QPF, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IN
SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY
WE HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO INCREASE THEM AT THIS POINT.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF
ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE  ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA MONDAY
WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS IT WAY TO
THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE ECWMF
THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE
COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER THE EAST SIDE.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT COULD DROP DOWN TO
3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. -SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$

DW/MAP/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 110520
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE 00Z GFS IS IN AND THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH AN ACTIVE BUT NOT STORMY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES
AT 8000 TO 10000 FEET. BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE
RAIN...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 5 IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL RANGE. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FLURRIES
WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 9000 FEET.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT...HAS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING LIGHT MAINLY WEST SIDE PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE WEAKNESS OF
THE SYSTEM IS REPRESENTED BY BOTH THE EXPECTED QPF...GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND THAT SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO ONLY AROUND 5500 TO 6000 FEET.

A FOLLOWING SYSTEM BRUSHING PAST TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE BROKEN
BUT THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK FOLLOWING DISTURBANCES CONTINUING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS WITH THE OTHERS...THE PROBABILITY WILL BE
HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
STRONGER/COLDER IS POSSIBLE AT MID-WEEK...REACHING THE COAST AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 11/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED NEAR THE COAST AND IN
THE COAST RANGE...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
-JRS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016...A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE WEST SWELL
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. -JRS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW TO OUR EAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS SET UP BRINGING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA THEN LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT INLAND TONIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE
COVERAGE OF THE QPF, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IN
SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY
WE HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO INCREASE THEM AT THIS POINT.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF
ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE  ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA MONDAY
WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS IT WAY TO
THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE ECWMF
THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE
COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER THE EAST SIDE.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT COULD DROP DOWN TO
3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. -SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$

DW/MAP/JRS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 102214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
214 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW TO OUR EAST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
HAS SET UP BRINGING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE AREA THEN LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SHOW PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT INLAND TONIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE
COVERAGE OF THE QPF, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IN
SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY
WE HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO INCREASE THEM AT THIS POINT.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
ABOVE ALL THE PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET. THEREFORE WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF
ANY IMPACT ON ANY OF THE  ROADS IN THE CASCADES.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE DAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY
EVENING, THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY BE ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT RIDGE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RAIN, FOCUSED ON NORTH AND WEST FACING TERRAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH LIGHTER RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE MAJOR PASSES AND LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET IN MOST
AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EASE...EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA MONDAY
WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS IT WAY TO
THE NORTH WHERE IT WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE ECWMF
THOUGH HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE
INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. IT SHOULD STAY DRY IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH TO
IMPACT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE
COAST TO THE CASCADES WITH HIGH CHANCES EVEN OVER THE EAST SIDE.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT COULD DROP DOWN TO
3000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, TEMPORARY MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND PARTIAL TERRAIN OBCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016... A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS...BUILDING SEAS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 16 FOOT RANGE AT 18 SECONDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10
     PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 101705
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO BIG
CHANGES WERE MADE. CURRENTLY BROOKINGS IS REPORTING RAIN AND THE
WEB CAMS SHOW WET ROADS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AT THE
LOWER LEVELS BECAUSE THE RADAR IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING ANY RETURNS.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS COVER THAT MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF CURRY COUNTY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS WILL MAKE IT FURTHER INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SOUTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THIS, WE`LL ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS
FOR LATE THIS MORNING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THEN
LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT INLAND DURING THE DAY. IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS IS
THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF, BUT SUSPECT THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IN SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER
STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND
ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO INCREASE
THEM AT THIS POINT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COAST RANGE AND POSSIBLY
SOME VALLEY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RANGE THIS MORNING. LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY FROM HAPPY CAMP SOUTHWARD...IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY NORTH TO
GRANTS PASS...AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN OVER AND AROUND ROSEBURG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016... A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS...BUILDING SEAS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 16 FOOT RANGE AT 18 SECONDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MARINE
STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WE`VE GOT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER US NOW, BUT NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR
NOR AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES, SO IT`S LIKELY JUST A CLOUD
PRODUCER. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT AROUND 130W RIGHT NOW, AND THIS
FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT REACHES OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, AND IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS AND COAST, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT INLAND AS WELL.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY OVER ALL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE WEST SIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESISTANCE, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME RAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS WE
HAVE LOOK WARRANTED. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO
7000 FEET IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 101705
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO BIG
CHANGES WERE MADE. CURRENTLY BROOKINGS IS REPORTING RAIN AND THE
WEB CAMS SHOW WET ROADS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AT THE
LOWER LEVELS BECAUSE THE RADAR IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING ANY RETURNS.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS COVER THAT MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF CURRY COUNTY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS WILL MAKE IT FURTHER INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SOUTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THIS, WE`LL ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS
FOR LATE THIS MORNING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THEN
LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT INLAND DURING THE DAY. IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS IS
THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF, BUT SUSPECT THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IN SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER
STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND
ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO INCREASE
THEM AT THIS POINT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COAST RANGE AND POSSIBLY
SOME VALLEY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RANGE THIS MORNING. LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY FROM HAPPY CAMP SOUTHWARD...IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY NORTH TO
GRANTS PASS...AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN OVER AND AROUND ROSEBURG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016... A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS...BUILDING SEAS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 16 FOOT RANGE AT 18 SECONDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MARINE
STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WE`VE GOT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER US NOW, BUT NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR
NOR AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES, SO IT`S LIKELY JUST A CLOUD
PRODUCER. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT AROUND 130W RIGHT NOW, AND THIS
FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT REACHES OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, AND IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS AND COAST, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT INLAND AS WELL.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY OVER ALL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE WEST SIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESISTANCE, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME RAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS WE
HAVE LOOK WARRANTED. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO
7000 FEET IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 101705
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO BIG
CHANGES WERE MADE. CURRENTLY BROOKINGS IS REPORTING RAIN AND THE
WEB CAMS SHOW WET ROADS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AT THE
LOWER LEVELS BECAUSE THE RADAR IMAGE IS NOT SHOWING ANY RETURNS.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS CLOUDS COVER THAT MAY BE
INDICATIVE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF CURRY COUNTY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. IT`S POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS WILL MAKE IT FURTHER INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE AND SOUTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THIS, WE`LL ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS
FOR LATE THIS MORNING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALLOWING VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THEN
LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT INLAND DURING THE DAY. IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS IS
THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF, BUT SUSPECT THIS
MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. IN SHORT THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL RATHER
STRONG AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN ANY SYSTEM THAT MOVES INLAND
ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY WE HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND CAN`T SEE ANY REASON TO INCREASE
THEM AT THIS POINT. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COAST RANGE AND POSSIBLY
SOME VALLEY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RANGE THIS MORNING. LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY FROM HAPPY CAMP SOUTHWARD...IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY NORTH TO
GRANTS PASS...AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN OVER AND AROUND ROSEBURG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016... A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS...BUILDING SEAS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 16 FOOT RANGE AT 18 SECONDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MARINE
STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WE`VE GOT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER US NOW, BUT NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR
NOR AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES, SO IT`S LIKELY JUST A CLOUD
PRODUCER. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT AROUND 130W RIGHT NOW, AND THIS
FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT REACHES OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, AND IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS AND COAST, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT INLAND AS WELL.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY OVER ALL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE WEST SIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESISTANCE, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME RAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS WE
HAVE LOOK WARRANTED. -WRIGHT

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO
7000 FEET IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 101223
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
423 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MARINE
STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WE`VE GOT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER US NOW, BUT NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR
NOR AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES, SO IT`S LIKELY JUST A CLOUD
PRODUCER. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT AROUND 130W RIGHT NOW, AND THIS
FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT REACHES OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, AND IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS AND COAST, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT INLAND AS WELL.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY OVER ALL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE WEST SIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESISTANCE, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME RAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS WE
HAVE LOOK WARRANTED. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO
7000 FEET IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING IN FROM THE PACIFIC TODAY WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND COAST RANGE AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION OF THE COAST RANGE AND POSSIBLY
SOME VALLEY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RANGE THIS MORNING. LIFR CEILINGS ALONG THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY FROM HAPPY CAMP SOUTHWARD...IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY NORTH TO
GRANTS PASS...AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN OVER AND AROUND ROSEBURG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016... A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS...BUILDING SEAS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.
SEAS WILL BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 14 TO 16 FOOT RANGE AT 18 SECONDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
  AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
  4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

TRW/FB/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 101005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MARINE
STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WE`VE GOT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER US NOW, BUT NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR
NOR AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES, SO IT`S LIKELY JUST A CLOUD
PRODUCER. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT AROUND 130W RIGHT NOW, AND THIS
FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT REACHES OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, AND IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS AND COAST, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT INLAND AS WELL.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY OVER ALL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE WEST SIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESISTANCE, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME RAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS WE
HAVE LOOK WARRANTED. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO
7000 FEET IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SYNOPSIS FOR THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS... SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 101005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MARINE
STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WE`VE GOT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER US NOW, BUT NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR
NOR AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES, SO IT`S LIKELY JUST A CLOUD
PRODUCER. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT AROUND 130W RIGHT NOW, AND THIS
FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT REACHES OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, AND IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS AND COAST, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT INLAND AS WELL.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY OVER ALL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE WEST SIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESISTANCE, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME RAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS WE
HAVE LOOK WARRANTED. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO
7000 FEET IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SYNOPSIS FOR THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS... SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 101005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US IS ALLOWING LOTS OF HIGH CLOUD TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MARINE
STRATUS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. WE`VE GOT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER US NOW, BUT NOTHING HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR
NOR AT ANY OF THE OBSERVING SITES, SO IT`S LIKELY JUST A CLOUD
PRODUCER. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT AROUND 130W RIGHT NOW, AND THIS
FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT REACHES OUR COAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST, BUT NOTHING MUCH MORE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, AND IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME RAIN
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS AND COAST, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN
CAN`T BE RULED OUT INLAND AS WELL.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY THE SAME THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME IN FROM THE WEST BUT MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE PARKED JUST TO OUR EAST. BY
FRIDAY, RAIN BECOMES MORE LIKELY OVER ALL AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE WEST SIDE AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER A FAIR AMOUNT OF RESISTANCE, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE`LL SEE SOME RAIN, SO THE HIGHER POPS WE
HAVE LOOK WARRANTED. -WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET
STREAM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO
7000 FEET IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST
AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
BOTH MODELS INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SYNOPSIS FOR THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS... SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
     PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 100648
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1048 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO
     4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 100648
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1048 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO
     4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 100648
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1048 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/06Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN TO
THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AT THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO
     4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 100328
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
728 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST. NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME (4-10AM), AS
DOES THE NEW 00Z NAM. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. BUT, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
PRECIPITATION WON`T MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND THOUGH...PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 20 MILES (TO THE COAST RANGES). FOR THIS REASON, POPS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT EXIST FROM ROSEBURG SOUTHWARD TO THE ILLINOIS
VALLEY AND EASTWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME
IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE
SWELL TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JET STREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM
     TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 100158
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
600 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATED

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ARE THICKER IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT,
BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FROM
FORMING IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALSO A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. I SUSPECT THE THE MODELS, IN PARTICULAR THE NAM ARE TOO
BULLISH WITH THE QPF FIELDS ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ONLY BE THE
SACRIFICIAL LAMB. TYPICALLY WHEN FRONTS LIKE THIS RUN INTO A RIDGE
(ESPECIALLY ONE THAT IS RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)
THEY TEND TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE, HENCE THE REASONING FOR KEEPING
POPS BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OMEGA FIELDS ARE HIGHER AT THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR HIGHER
POPS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE HRRR SHOWS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT (CURRENT RUN ONLY GOES OUT TO 3AM PST). THE EVENING AND
NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AND INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THERE`S STRONGER EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
IT.

SHOWERS (IF WE GET ANY) ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE COAST. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH JUST OFF THE OREGON COAST. THE MODELS KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIP OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWS SOME INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSPECT THIS ALSO MAY BE OVERDONE. INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THE TRIGGER IS WEAK OR NON- EXISTENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE`LL GET ANYTHING. SO WE`LL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, LATER SHIFTS
WILL WANT TO REEVALUATE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
EAST INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE
PASSES. -PETRUCELLI

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A MORE WESTERLY JETSTREAM
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INLAND ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5500 FEET IN OREGON AND UP TO 7000 FEET IN
THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWS ARE IN A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OUR FORECAST AREA SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

BY MONDAY HOWEVER BOTH MODELS STRENGTHENS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE ON ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG AND ALLOWS SOME
OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT WE ARE KEEPING MONDAY DRY BUT RE-INTRODUCE
CHANCE POPS FOR COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE WE MAY SHIFT BACK TO A WET PATTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 10/00Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LIFR CIGS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A WEAKENING FRONT
BRINGS MVFR CIGS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016....SYNOPSIS FOR THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS... SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE IN VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTRAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COME IN
FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA WILL STEER A SERIES
OF FRONTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL...OR HIGHER... CONDITIONS AFTER
WEDENESDAY WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE MODERATE SWELL
TRAINS COMBINING WITH MODERATE WIND WAVES. WEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 14 FEET AT 17 SECONDS FRIDAY MORNING. -MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities