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000
FXUS66 KMFR 271304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
505 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WITH INTERVALS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
STEADILY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF THIS LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. 850MB TEMPERATURE, WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 5KFT FREE AIR TEMPERATURE, WAS 15.5C ON THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING LAUNCHED FROM THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURE AT THIS LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
6.5C. THUS, THE INVERSION IS GOING TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY, AND
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE INVERSION THERE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. ON THE WEST SIDE WE
ANTICIPATE THAT THE AIR MASS IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIFT AND FILTER
OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH
TO TOTALLY SCOUR OUT THE INVERSION. WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT TODAY, SO THE WIND
WON`T BE HELPING MATTERS MUCH.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING
HAVE BEEN LOCALLY DENSE, BUT ROAD CAMERAS INDICATE THE DENSE FOG
IS PATCHY. THESE CAMERA IMAGES, IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MEAN THAT THE DENSE FOG
SHOULD BE ONLY PATCHY THIS MORNING, SO HAVE DECIDED TO FOREGO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIXING ON THE EAST SIDE IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ONLY A NOCTURNAL INVERSION, WHILE SOME VESTIGE OF A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THAT, IF WE GET SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BREAK DURING THE DAY, WE COULD BREAK EVEN
THE WEST SIDE INVERSION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COASTS. POPS
WERE INCREASED SOME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THIS WEEKEND,
BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 10C VERSUS
THE 19C VALUES REACHED THIS PAST WEEKEND. SOME EAST WINDS WILL
DRY THE AIR MASS OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG FOR SOME AREAS.

LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DO INDICATE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA CENTERED ON ABOUT DAY 7, WHICH IS NEXT MONDAY, FEBRUARY
2ND. WHILE THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED PRECIPITATION, WE ONLY
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW. THIS IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS,
IN PART, DUE TO RECENT AND HISTORIC MODEL TENDENCIES TO BREAK
DOWN RIDGING OVER THE AREA FASTER THAN OCCURS IN REALITY. WE ARE
CERTAINLY OVERDUE FOR SOME WINTER WETNESS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...CIGS ARE IFR/LIFR IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS
A LOW MOVES UP INTO EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MID DECK SHOULD INHIBIT FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM TUESDAY 27 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
505 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WITH INTERVALS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
STEADILY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF THIS LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. 850MB TEMPERATURE, WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 5KFT FREE AIR TEMPERATURE, WAS 15.5C ON THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING LAUNCHED FROM THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURE AT THIS LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
6.5C. THUS, THE INVERSION IS GOING TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY, AND
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE INVERSION THERE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. ON THE WEST SIDE WE
ANTICIPATE THAT THE AIR MASS IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIFT AND FILTER
OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH
TO TOTALLY SCOUR OUT THE INVERSION. WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT TODAY, SO THE WIND
WON`T BE HELPING MATTERS MUCH.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING
HAVE BEEN LOCALLY DENSE, BUT ROAD CAMERAS INDICATE THE DENSE FOG
IS PATCHY. THESE CAMERA IMAGES, IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MEAN THAT THE DENSE FOG
SHOULD BE ONLY PATCHY THIS MORNING, SO HAVE DECIDED TO FOREGO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIXING ON THE EAST SIDE IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ONLY A NOCTURNAL INVERSION, WHILE SOME VESTIGE OF A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THAT, IF WE GET SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BREAK DURING THE DAY, WE COULD BREAK EVEN
THE WEST SIDE INVERSION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COASTS. POPS
WERE INCREASED SOME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THIS WEEKEND,
BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 10C VERSUS
THE 19C VALUES REACHED THIS PAST WEEKEND. SOME EAST WINDS WILL
DRY THE AIR MASS OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG FOR SOME AREAS.

LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DO INDICATE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA CENTERED ON ABOUT DAY 7, WHICH IS NEXT MONDAY, FEBRUARY
2ND. WHILE THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED PRECIPITATION, WE ONLY
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW. THIS IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS,
IN PART, DUE TO RECENT AND HISTORIC MODEL TENDENCIES TO BREAK
DOWN RIDGING OVER THE AREA FASTER THAN OCCURS IN REALITY. WE ARE
CERTAINLY OVERDUE FOR SOME WINTER WETNESS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...CIGS ARE IFR/LIFR IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS
A LOW MOVES UP INTO EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MID DECK SHOULD INHIBIT FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM TUESDAY 27 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 271055
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WITH INTERVALS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
STEADILY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF THIS LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. 850MB TEMPERATURE, WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 5KFT FREE AIR TEMPERATURE, WAS 15.5C ON THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING LAUNCHED FROM THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURE AT THIS LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
6.5C. THUS, THE INVERSION IS GOING TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY, AND
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE INVERSION THERE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. ON THE WEST SIDE WE
ANTICIPATE THAT THE AIR MASS IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIFT AND FILTER
OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH
TO TOTALLY SCOUR OUT THE INVERSION. WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT TODAY, SO THE WIND
WON`T BE HELPING MATTERS MUCH.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING
HAVE BEEN LOCALLY DENSE, BUT ROAD CAMERAS INDICATE THE DENSE FOG
IS PATCHY. THESE CAMERA IMAGES, IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MEAN THAT THE DENSE FOG
SHOULD BE ONLY PATCHY THIS MORNING, SO HAVE DECIDED TO FOREGO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIXING ON THE EAST SIDE IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ONLY A NOCTURNAL INVERSION, WHILE SOME VESTIGE OF A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THAT, IF WE GET SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BREAK DURING THE DAY, WE COULD BREAK EVEN
THE WEST SIDE INVERSION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COASTS. POPS
WERE INCREASED SOME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THIS WEEKEND,
BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 10C VERSUS
THE 19C VALUES REACHED THIS PAST WEEKEND. SOME EAST WINDS WILL
DRY THE AIR MASS OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG FOR SOME AREAS.

LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DO INDICATE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA CENTERED ON ABOUT DAY 7, WHICH IS NEXT MONDAY, FEBRUARY
2ND. WHILE THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED PRECIPITATION, WE ONLY
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW. THIS IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS,
IN PART, DUE TO RECENT AND HISTORIC MODEL TENDENCIES TO BREAK
DOWN RIDGING OVER THE AREA FASTER THAN OCCURS IN REALITY. WE ARE
CERTAINLY OVERDUE FOR SOME WINTER WETNESS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREA CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS
EVENING TO IFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOP AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT. AS A LOW MOVES UP INTO EAST-
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. -MSC/BPN

&&

.MARINE....UPDATED AT 800 PM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...
WEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED
CHOP. -MSC/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271055
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 AM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WITH INTERVALS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
STEADILY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF THIS LOW MOVING OVERHEAD. 850MB TEMPERATURE, WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 5KFT FREE AIR TEMPERATURE, WAS 15.5C ON THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING LAUNCHED FROM THE MEDFORD AIRPORT. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURE AT THIS LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT
6.5C. THUS, THE INVERSION IS GOING TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY, AND
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE INVERSION THERE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. ON THE WEST SIDE WE
ANTICIPATE THAT THE AIR MASS IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIFT AND FILTER
OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WON`T BE ENOUGH
TO TOTALLY SCOUR OUT THE INVERSION. WINDS EVEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT TODAY, SO THE WIND
WON`T BE HELPING MATTERS MUCH.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING
HAVE BEEN LOCALLY DENSE, BUT ROAD CAMERAS INDICATE THE DENSE FOG
IS PATCHY. THESE CAMERA IMAGES, IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MEAN THAT THE DENSE FOG
SHOULD BE ONLY PATCHY THIS MORNING, SO HAVE DECIDED TO FOREGO A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIXING ON THE EAST SIDE IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ONLY A NOCTURNAL INVERSION, WHILE SOME VESTIGE OF A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
IT IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THAT, IF WE GET SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BREAK DURING THE DAY, WE COULD BREAK EVEN
THE WEST SIDE INVERSION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TODAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY COASTS. POPS
WERE INCREASED SOME OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THIS WEEKEND,
BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH ABOUT 10C VERSUS
THE 19C VALUES REACHED THIS PAST WEEKEND. SOME EAST WINDS WILL
DRY THE AIR MASS OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG FOR SOME AREAS.

LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DO INDICATE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA CENTERED ON ABOUT DAY 7, WHICH IS NEXT MONDAY, FEBRUARY
2ND. WHILE THIS WOULD CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED PRECIPITATION, WE ONLY
HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW. THIS IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS,
IN PART, DUE TO RECENT AND HISTORIC MODEL TENDENCIES TO BREAK
DOWN RIDGING OVER THE AREA FASTER THAN OCCURS IN REALITY. WE ARE
CERTAINLY OVERDUE FOR SOME WINTER WETNESS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, WITH
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREA CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS
EVENING TO IFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOP AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT. AS A LOW MOVES UP INTO EAST-
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. -MSC/BPN

&&

.MARINE....UPDATED AT 800 PM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...
WEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED
CHOP. -MSC/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BTL/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270414
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
814 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS
TONIGHT, AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING IN THE ROGUE AND UMPQUA VALLEYS, AND ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER, SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT FORMATION.
THE END RESULT SHOULD STILL BE THE SAME A THE PAST FEW MORNINGS.
ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OR UPDATES, AS THE INHERITED FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
DURING THE EVENING, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR IN WEST
SIDE VALLEYS, WITH FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREA CIGS EXPECTED
TO LOWER THIS EVENING TO IFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOP AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT. AS A LOW MOVES UP INTO
EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. -MSC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP. -MSC/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD AND IT HAS CLEARED OUT IN ROSEBURG.
HOWEVER GRANTS PASS REMAINS OVERCAST AND IT MAY ONLY BREAK OUT
BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IF AT ALL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS TO PREVENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THEREFORE WE EXPECT BOTH TO FORM AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT
THAT`S IT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH INTO NEVADA TUESDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF
BARELY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT MENTION OF SHOWERS WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE.

THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN OR BREAK THE
INVERSION FOR A BRIEF TIME WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR WEST OF THE CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THE
INVERSION WILL BREAK EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER. SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
END TIME OF THE AIR STAGNATION THERE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO START
OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THE GFS
AND EC SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT SOME SUNDAY AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/MAS/MSC/CC/MP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270048 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
448 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD AND IT HAS CLEARED OUT IN ROSEBURG.
HOWEVER GRANTS PASS REMAINS OVERCAST AND IT MAY ONLY BREAK OUT
BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IF AT ALL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS TO PREVENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THEREFORE WE EXPECT BOTH TO FORM AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT
THAT`S IT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH INTO NEVADA TUESDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF
BARELY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT MENTION OF SHOWERS WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE.

THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN OR BREAK THE
INVERSION FOR A BRIEF TIME WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
PST THURSDAY FOR WEST OF THE CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THE
INVERSION WILL BREAK EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER. SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
END TIME OF THE AIR STAGNATION THERE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO START
OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THE GFS
AND EC SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT SOME SUNDAY AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
DURING THE EVENING, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR IN WEST
SIDE VALLEYS, WITH FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREA CIGS EXPECTED
TO LOWER THIS EVENING TO IFR AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOP AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT. AS A LOW MOVES UP INTO
EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. -MSC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 0300 PM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP.
-MSC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

MAS/MAP/MSC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 262229
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD AND IT HAS CLEARED OUT IN ROSEBURG.
HOWEVER GRANTS PASS REMAINS OVERCAST AND IT MAY ONLY BREAK OUT
BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IF AT ALL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS TO PREVENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THEREFORE WE EXPECT BOTH TO FORM AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT
THAT`S IT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH INTO NEVADA TUESDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF
BARELY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT MENTION OF SHOWERS WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE.

THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN OR BREAK THE
INVERSION FOR A BRIEF TIME WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR WEST OF THE CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THE
INVERSION WILL BREAK EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER. SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
END TIME OF THE AIR STAGNATION THERE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO START
OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THE GFS
AND EC SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT SOME SUNDAY AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR IN THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY.
DURING THE EVENING, AREAS OF IFR/MFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE COAST, INCLUDING AT KOTH. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
INLAND, EXPECT WEST SIDE VALLEYS TO HAVE FOG REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
WITH FOG CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A LOW MOVES UP INTO
EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 1130 AM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP. -CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 262229
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
229 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD AND IT HAS CLEARED OUT IN ROSEBURG.
HOWEVER GRANTS PASS REMAINS OVERCAST AND IT MAY ONLY BREAK OUT
BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IF AT ALL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS TO PREVENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THEREFORE WE EXPECT BOTH TO FORM AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING LITTLE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO, BUT
THAT`S IT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH INTO NEVADA TUESDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF
BARELY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN MODOC AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT MENTION OF SHOWERS WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE.

THE FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN OR BREAK THE
INVERSION FOR A BRIEF TIME WEST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. SO HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR WEST OF THE CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THE
INVERSION WILL BREAK EAST OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH HIGHER. SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
END TIME OF THE AIR STAGNATION THERE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO START
OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS. THE GFS
AND EC SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT SOME SUNDAY AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR IN THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY.
DURING THE EVENING, AREAS OF IFR/MFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE COAST, INCLUDING AT KOTH. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
INLAND, EXPECT WEST SIDE VALLEYS TO HAVE FOG REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
WITH FOG CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A LOW MOVES UP INTO
EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES. THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 1130 AM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP. -CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261716
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN, ILLINOIS AND MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY.
THE LATEST WEB CAM SHOWS CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE SOUTH END OF ASHLAND
AND THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MOISTURE LAYER NEAR 1000
FEET. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE
MORNING WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUT AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST,
BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD STILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THEREFORE USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THIS MORNING AND
ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND THE DRIVERS IN FRONT.

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BRIEFLY MIX
OUT WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THE INVERSION WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND LAST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MIXING EAST OF THE CASCADES, THUS ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY. WE`LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS AND ANY
CHANGES IN THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING RESEMBLE THOSE FROM SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIFR FOG IN INLAND
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MEANTIME, CONDITIONS ARE VFR ELSEWHERE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY THEN A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING LIFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 530 AM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM PST THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS
FORMED IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH
THE ROGUE VALLEY. FOG CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND SCOTT VALLEY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE
ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. I HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND HAVE TO TIME THE ONSET OF THE DENSE FOG
CLOSER TO SUNRISE OR AROUND 6AM. TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOG MAY
AGAIN BE QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE GRANTS PASS AREA TODAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TIMEHEIGHTS OF THE AREA SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB COMING DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE FORECAST
CALLING FOR MORE COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALLOWS UPSTREAM FRONT TO APPROACH COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME. THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCE TO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH THESE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BE VERY LIGHT..MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
INTO NEVADA. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND POSSIBLE IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MEDFORD.

THE CURRENT AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IF THE DISTURBANCE IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
INVERSION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261716
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN, ILLINOIS AND MOST OF THE ROGUE VALLEY.
THE LATEST WEB CAM SHOWS CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE SOUTH END OF ASHLAND
AND THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS THE MOISTURE LAYER NEAR 1000
FEET. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE
MORNING WITH MOST AREAS CLEARING OUT AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM PST,
BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD STILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THEREFORE USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THIS MORNING AND
ALLOW EXTRA DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND THE DRIVERS IN FRONT.

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BRIEFLY MIX
OUT WEST OF THE CASCADES, BUT THE INVERSION WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND LAST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MIXING EAST OF THE CASCADES, THUS ENDING THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY. WE`LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS AND ANY
CHANGES IN THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING RESEMBLE THOSE FROM SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIFR FOG IN INLAND
VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MEANTIME, CONDITIONS ARE VFR ELSEWHERE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY THEN A MARINE PUSH WILL BRING LIFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 530 AM MONDAY 26 JANUARY 2015...WEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS
TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE
NORTH...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHOP. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM PST THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS
FORMED IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH
THE ROGUE VALLEY. FOG CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND SCOTT VALLEY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE
ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. I HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND HAVE TO TIME THE ONSET OF THE DENSE FOG
CLOSER TO SUNRISE OR AROUND 6AM. TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOG MAY
AGAIN BE QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE GRANTS PASS AREA TODAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TIMEHEIGHTS OF THE AREA SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB COMING DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE FORECAST
CALLING FOR MORE COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALLOWS UPSTREAM FRONT TO APPROACH COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME. THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCE TO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH THESE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BE VERY LIGHT..MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
INTO NEVADA. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND POSSIBLE IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MEDFORD.

THE CURRENT AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IF THE DISTURBANCE IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
INVERSION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM PST THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS
FORMED IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH
THE ROGUE VALLEY. FOG CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND SCOTT VALLEY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE
ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. I HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND HAVE TO TIME THE ONSET OF THE DENSE FOG
CLOSER TO SUNRISE OR AROUND 6AM. TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOG MAY
AGAIN BE QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE GRANTS PASS AREA TODAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TIMEHEIGHTS OF THE AREA SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB COMING DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE FORECAST
CALLING FOR MORE COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALLOWS UPSTREAM FRONT TO APPROACH COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME. THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCE TO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH THESE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BE VERY LIGHT..MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
INTO NEVADA. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND POSSIBLE IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MEDFORD.

THE CURRENT AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IF THE DISTURBANCE IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
INVERSION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH MODELS BRING
IT NEAR THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z, CURRENT BEHAVIOR OF THE
DECK WOULD SUGGEST IT STAYS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER,
FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS MAY FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND WHAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN BEFORE DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -BPN/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261124
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
324 AM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3 AM PST THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS
FORMED IN THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH
THE ROGUE VALLEY. FOG CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE
APPLEGATE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND SCOTT VALLEY IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE
ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. I HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND HAVE TO TIME THE ONSET OF THE DENSE FOG
CLOSER TO SUNRISE OR AROUND 6AM. TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOG MAY
AGAIN BE QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE GRANTS PASS AREA TODAY.

THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TIMEHEIGHTS OF THE AREA SHOWS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB COMING DOWN FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE FORECAST
CALLING FOR MORE COOLING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALLOWS UPSTREAM FRONT TO APPROACH COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.
AT THE SAME TIME THERE IS A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE SAME TIME. THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCE TO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH THESE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL BE VERY LIGHT..MORE
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER. THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
INTO NEVADA. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND POSSIBLE IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MEDFORD.

THE CURRENT AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WE WILL NEED TO EVALUATE IF THE DISTURBANCE IS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
INVERSION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND ALTHOUGH MODELS BRING
IT NEAR THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z, CURRENT BEHAVIOR OF THE
DECK WOULD SUGGEST IT STAYS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER,
FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS MAY FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AND WHAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN BEFORE DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -BPN/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 260408
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER NIGHT
WITHOUT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST. IT WILL ALSO
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG UNDER THE RATHER
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE PAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT FOG, AND TOMORROW MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NEEDED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND MODELS BRING IT NEAR
THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z. FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THAT. IT
WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR
CIGS/VIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN AROUND
DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 260408
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, ANOTHER NIGHT
WITHOUT ANY NECESSARY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST. IT WILL ALSO
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WATCHING FOR DENSE FOG UNDER THE RATHER
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS. THE PAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE SEEN
SIGNIFICANT FOG, AND TOMORROW MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH
DIFFERENT. UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NEEDED. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS
ABOUT 25 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, AND MODELS BRING IT NEAR
THE NORTH COAST BY AROUND 26/12Z. FOG/STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS/MVFR VIS
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST PRIOR TO THAT. IT
WILL LIKELY BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG WITH LIFR
CIGS/VIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN AROUND
DAWN MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 745 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...SWELL HAS NOT
BEEN AS HIGH AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE
NORTH, HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252227
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE ONLY AREA WITH
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IS GRANTS PASS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THERE...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING NORTH BEND AIRPORT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHANGING SOME. FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR GRANTS PASS FIRST...AND EXPAND TO
AFFECT THE UMPQUA BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND MEDFORD AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN A WEAKENING INVERSION...FOG SHOULD AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE QUICKER TO CLEAR ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY 18Z-20Z MOST PLACES. ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...MADE A MINOR
CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. 10 FOOT SWELLS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BUOY 27 WHICH IS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, SO I
EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SWELLS ARRIVING
AT OFFSHORE BUOY 2 ARE NOT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED, SO THIS ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252227
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
227 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE RIDGES, AND AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY
FOG. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVING INTO THE COAST FROM THE WEST AND A LOW MOVING UP INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT IN INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON, INCLUDING THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND
ROGUE VALLEYS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
THAN TODAY BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. AIR STAGNATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND VALLEYS AS VALLEY INVERSIONS
CONTINUE AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING.

ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE MARINE WATERS
TONIGHT. THEN THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT MARINE STRATUS MAY
EXTEND TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INITIALLY FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
SISKIYOU, MODOC AND SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALONG THE COAST, THE WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, STALLING ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. ALSO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH A PERIOD OF NO AIR STAGNATION
IN THE VALLEYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT MIXING MAY IMPROVE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AS WELL. CURRENTLY HAVE THE AIR STAGNATION
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SEE AIR
STAGNATION CONDITIONS RETURN TO INLAND VALLEYS WEDNESDAY OR LATER
IN THE WEEK.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL LEAN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BECAUSE THE
AMPLITUDE IS LOWER...BUT WE DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE
AND SHORTER NIGHTS...THERE SHOULD BE LESS FOG COVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS HANGS A FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
HAS SHOWN THIS...AND THE ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE DRY
AT THIS TIME...SO PREFER THE ECMWF AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES
SOME AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR SOME UPPER TROUGHS FROM THE
WEST TO MOVE IN...BUT THE FIRST OF THESE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG. SO THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. /SK


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE ONLY AREA WITH
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IS GRANTS PASS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THERE...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN IN
WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SPECIFICALLY...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AFFECTING NORTH BEND AIRPORT BRIEFLY
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
CHANGING SOME. FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM NEAR GRANTS PASS FIRST...AND EXPAND TO
AFFECT THE UMPQUA BASIN...ILLINOIS VALLEY...AND MEDFORD AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN A WEAKENING INVERSION...FOG SHOULD AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE QUICKER TO CLEAR ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
BY 18Z-20Z MOST PLACES. ELSEWHERE...EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AWAY FROM RIVER VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 200 PM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...MADE A MINOR
CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. 10 FOOT SWELLS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BUOY 27 WHICH IS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, SO I
EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS. SWELLS ARRIVING
AT OFFSHORE BUOY 2 ARE NOT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED, SO THIS ADVISORY FOR
OUR WATERS MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERED EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING
THE PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1009 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DENSE FOG IN PLACE IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN OREGON SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND
11AM WITH CLEARING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM PST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA. COASTAL AREAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251809
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1009 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DENSE FOG IN PLACE IN THE WEST
SIDE VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN OREGON SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND
11AM WITH CLEARING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM PST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA. COASTAL AREAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA.  COASTAL AREAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251638
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
838 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS
BRINGING VALLEY FOG AND A CONTINUED STRONG INVERSION TO THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE OCCURRING IN INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING INCLUDING THE ROGUE, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE, UMPQUA
VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE ON THE
MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR IN WESTERN VALLEYS LATE THIS
MORNING OR AROUND NOOON...WITH SOME LINGERING FOG INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR GRANTS PASS, THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
UMPQUA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
VALLEYS. HOWEVER A STRONG INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN INLAND
VALLEYS AND EXPECT CONTINUED STAGNANT AREA.  COASTAL AREAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BUT CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS IN PLACE WITH STAGNANT
AIR. ALSO EXPECT NIGHTTIME AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WEST OF THE
CASCADES AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM THAN SUNDAY AS
THE INVERSION WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST AND A
LOW MOVES UP INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THIS LOW MAY
BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK FRONT OFF THE COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO
PUSH ONSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 500 AM SUNDAY 25 JANUARY 2015...THE MAIN UPDATE
TO THE MARINE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE ADVISORY FOR THE INNER WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEST
SWELL AT 14 TO 16 SECONDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK
WHILE SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. -DW


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AND THUS ALSO THE
INVERSION ARE AT PEAK STRENGTH OVER THE AREA WITH AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIY THROUGH 10 AM PST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE INVERSION LAYER SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251334
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
534 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AND THUS ALSO THE
INVERSION ARE AT PEAK STRENGTH OVER THE AREA WITH AREAS OF NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIY THROUGH 10 AM PST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE INVERSION LAYER SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-617-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ080-280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS
     MORNING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
330 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
AND MONDAY. A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WEST COAST LEADING A STAGNANT AIRMASS WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING. JUST OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THERE IS
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN TO THE NE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY..WHILE LETTING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS MAY HELP LOOSEN THE GRIP ON THE
AIR STAGNATION A BIT BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL
BE HEADING TOWARD WA AND NORTHERN OR. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH MAINLY MORE
CLOUDS ELSEWHERE IN OREGON. ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANT OF
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NEVADA.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE BRINGS THE RIDGE BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS IN THE VERY
EARLY MORNING TO DAWN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE
COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY
DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/DW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250411
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
811 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING, AS THE INHERITED
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL CONTINUE TO WEIGHT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER NIGHT/MORNING OF DENSE FOG, AND WITH THE
INVERSION IN THE VALLEYS AS STRONG AS, IF NOT STRONGER THAN, LAST
NIGHT, THIS DOES SEEM PROBABLE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS
NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. STRATUS AND FOG WITH LIFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AROUND DAWN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. FOG WITH MVFR VIS
HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER PARTS OF THE COAST (INCLUDING KOTH) AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND MAY DRIVE THE FOG OFFSHORE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT ON THE
EAST SIDE, SO FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE KLMT TAF SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 800 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 242246
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRANTS PASS. THEN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE GRANTS PASS AREA...IS HIGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DISRUPT FOG FORMATION IN
MEDFORD AND ESPECIALLY IN ASHLAND...SO CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS LOWER THERE.
LASTLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IN NORTH BEND TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW CLEAR OUT THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. /SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 211 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/SK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242246
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
246 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITION TO THE
AREA WITH STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS. ON TUESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO
THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY WILL A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE UP
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

ALONG THE COAST, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXPAND NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SHIFT INLAND ON MONDAY. A CONTINUED
STRONG EAST- WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND WINDS NEAR SHORE BECOME
SOUTHERLY.

INLAND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING VERY WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S WEST OF THE CASCADES AND TO AROUND 60
EAST OF THE CASCADES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST
IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY, ILLINOIS VALLEY
AND IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VALLEY FOG OUT OF THE TALENT AND
ASHLAND AREAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN
LESS FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MEDFORD AREA. ON MONDAY THE INVERSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG, SO WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ON TUESDAY, A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE COAST LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE A LOW
TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOST THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THOUGH AND CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE IN
WESTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE STAGNANT AIR PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STAGNANT AIR THOUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO REBUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE
5000 FOOT TEMPERATURES...A GOOD INDICATOR OF HOW WARM AN AIR MASS
WILL BE...SUGGEST TOP 10 PERCENT WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COAST COULD REACH TOP 5 PERCENT
WARMTH...AND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THE COAST BY SATURDAY.

AS WE HEAD TOWARDS FEBRUARY...OCCURRENCES OF OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
FOG DECREASE SHARPLY IN MOST PLACES...DUE TO SHORTER NIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLE...AND LESS PRECIPITATION TOO. THEREFORE...AS
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WE HAVE ONLY KEPT FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND THE
GRANTS PASS AREA. EVEN THESE AREAS COULD BE FOG-FREE GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SOIL MOISTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY VFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CIGS
LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRANTS PASS. THEN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE GRANTS PASS AREA...IS HIGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DISRUPT FOG FORMATION IN
MEDFORD AND ESPECIALLY IN ASHLAND...SO CONFIDENCE IN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS LOWER THERE.
LASTLY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IN NORTH BEND TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW CLEAR OUT THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. /SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 211 PM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/SK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 241653
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
853 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THEN MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE LINGERING ON
MONDAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAKENING PACIFIC FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY WHILE A LOW TO THE
SOUTH MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

THIS MORNING DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN THE ROSEBURG, GRANTS PASS,
ILLINOIS VALLEY AND MEDFORD AREAS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN
THE LATE LATE MORNING WITH CLEARING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE GRANTS PASS AND ROSEBURG AREAS
THOUGH TODAY BUT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AFTER THE LATE
MORNING PERIOD. CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
LATE THIS MORNING FOR INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN OREGON.

OTHERWISE THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARMING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH CLEARING. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN A SLIGHTLY LESS WARM DUE TO A CONTINUED INVERSION AS WELL
AS SOME MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOG IN WESTERN VALLEYS. STILL
EXPECT MOST INLAND VALLEYS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TODAY...THEN INTO THE 60S OR UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING
NEAR RECORD HIGHS TO THE AREA  SUNDAY.

COASTAL AREAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE UNUSUALLY WARM THIS WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE FLOW WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPS. SOME
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS TO THE ASHLAND AREA
AND MAY KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF MEDFORD.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z. VALLEY LIFR WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED AT 300 AM SATURDAY 24 JANUARY 2015...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STEEP
SEAS DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE SEAS DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON
THURSDAY. /DW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONES AND I HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE TREND THAT THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD STARTED. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG TODAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR RECORD VALUES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST
INLAND VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. ALSO DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPERATURES, A
STRONG INVERSION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIMITED WINDS AND VERTICAL MIXING IN THE VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED STAGNANT AIR FOR INLAND VALLEYS.

A STRONG EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CENTERED OVER THE CASCADES
WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRING BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE RIDGES IN THE
SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY WINDS GETTING
INTO THE ASHLAND AND TALENT AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. SO HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THESE AREAS. ALSO
IF LIGHT WINDS PERSIST IN THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD, FOG MAY
BE LIMITED AND MORE PATCHY ON SUNDAY FOR THE MEDFORD VALLEY AREA.

THE RIDGE PERSISTS INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING
ON MONDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE INTO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON SO MAIN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE MINIMAL. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ023-024-026-616-620-622.
     AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031-623>625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
     SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC





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