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000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251304
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD
VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251050
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND
FLOW SHIFTS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251050
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
350 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BEST JET DYNAMICS OF THE 135KT JET ARE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BRINGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
INTO THE SIERRAS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE WEAKER PORTION OF THE
LEFT JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION. A COLD POOL WITH 500 MB
TEMPS BELOW -25C MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. OVER THE WEST SIDE
SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MB THAT SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THAT HEIGHT OVER THE WEST
SIDE. THE FAR EAST SIDE IS AHEAD OF THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH MODELS
INDICATING LI`S LOWER THAN -1 AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION MOVES
ACROSS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING JET
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ONTO THE COAST TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO
SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND
FLOW SHIFTS FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS COAST AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME BREEZY ACROSS ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT SATURDAY, APR 25, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN LATER TODAY AND SEAS LOWER SOME. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

IN THE LONG-TERM...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND INITIATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO.  AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS AS MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF DISTURBANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. SK


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250552
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1051 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE... A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE PARTIAL DUE TO SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
OVER EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY MVFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. A SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
SIDE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND FLOW SHIFTS FROM
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS COAST
AND WEST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY ACROSS
ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015... SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250406
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
906 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OCCURRING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/MAS/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250406
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
906 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OCCURRING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/MAS/BMS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250406
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
906 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SHOWER LOCATION AND
COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING, ADJUST SNOW LEVELS DOWNWARD FOR
SATURDAY MORNING, AND TO INCREASE WEST SIDE SHOWER CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS, BRIEFLY AND LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER, CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THESE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT
LEFT PORTION OF A 130+ KNOT JET STREAM MAXIMUM MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER MEDFORD
OF AROUND -22C UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO FALL TO AROUND -25C
UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BY MORNING. THUS, WE EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS WILL WANE MAINLY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BULK OF
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A WELCOMED 0.10" TO 0.30" OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
DROUGHT PARCHED MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY 4500 FEET AND UP WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW DOWN TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET TO 4000 FEET IN AND AROUND THE
CASCADES, TO INCLUDE THE KLAMATH FALLS AREA, SATURDAY MORNING. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OCCURRING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BTL/15/BPN/MAS/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OCCURRING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BMS/JRS/BPN/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 250005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OCCURRING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BMS/JRS/BPN/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 250005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
505 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION OCCURRING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BMS/JRS/BPN/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. -BPN/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN...

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
        2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/11/18




000
FXUS66 KMFR 242130
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...24/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THOUGH. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL. ALL STATIONS
REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FROM THE CASCADES
WEST.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE. ONE MORE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SPLIT WITH ONE LOCAL MAXIMA
GRAZING THE DOUGLAS/LANE COUNTY BOUNDARY AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...
WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY ABOVE
5760M.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE DEGRADES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM, AS MODEL AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
WIDENING ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS. THESE DIFFICULTIES APPEAR TO ARISE DUE
TO THE VARIOUS WAYS EACH MODELS IS ATTEMPTING TO HANDLE SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND ALSO HOW AND
WHEN A BAND OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
EVENTUALLY BEND AND DISTORT INTO DISCERNIBLE WAVES. THROUGH THE
NOISE, THERE IS A HINT OF AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL PATTERN,
BUT THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO PROVIDE ANY CERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIME AND PLACEMENT. HAVE OPTED FOR A VERY
GENERALIZED FORECAST, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE MANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL OTHER
SHORTWAVES AND/OR TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN BETWEEN EACH WAVE,
THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS OF RIDGING AND POSSIBLY OFFSHORE FLOW.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE TERM, AND ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRY AND WARMER PERIODS INTERSPERSED
THROUGHOUT. EACH WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA, BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON FACTORS THAT ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. ANY PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE LIKELY TO BE
LACKING IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/18Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS...WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A MIX OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHERE MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. -BPN/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 PM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW AS THE MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING REGARDING THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH OUR WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AGAIN...

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
        2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
        FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/11/18





000
FXUS66 KMFR 241515
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
815 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...24/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS OVER MODOC
COUNTY...WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A DEPARTING
FRONT. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.15 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. MORE OF THESE WAVES WILL FOLLOW INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST
COAST...WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO
THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL
BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH THOUGH...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE COAST AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER
MODOC COUNTY WITH THE OUTGOING FRONT...AND AT THE COAST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE
MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY, CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...LACK OF STRONG FRONTS OR LARGE SWELL
COULD KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 241515
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
815 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...24/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS OVER MODOC
COUNTY...WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A DEPARTING
FRONT. AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.15 INCHES...WHERE ANYTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED AT ALL.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY DIRECTED INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
WASHINGTON STATE. THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MEDFORD CWA IS DUE TO WEAK SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH. MORE OF THESE WAVES WILL FOLLOW INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.

AFTER THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST
COAST...WHICH WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO
THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH INLAND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...BUT HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL
BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH THOUGH...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE COAST AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER
MODOC COUNTY WITH THE OUTGOING FRONT...AND AT THE COAST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE
MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY, CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...LACK OF STRONG FRONTS OR LARGE SWELL
COULD KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
        UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 241349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
0645 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHOWER
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARE AGAIN TODAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 60KT JET MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL BE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE NOSE
OF A 135 KT JET. THIS JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THE JET
MOVES IN SATURDAY WITH THE AREA NOT BEING IN THE CORE OF THE BEST
JET DYNAMICS...BUT STILL IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW WITH A COOL POOL MOVING IN BEHIND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
THESE SUCCESSIVE SYSTEMS THROUGH MOVES EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA RETURNING THE REGION TO A WARM AND
DRY PATTERN. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER
MODOC COUNTY WITH THE OUTGOING FRONT...AND AT THE COAST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE
MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY, CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...LACK OF STRONG FRONTS OR LARGE SWELL
COULD KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 241349
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
0645 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHOWER
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARE AGAIN TODAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 60KT JET MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL BE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE NOSE
OF A 135 KT JET. THIS JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THE JET
MOVES IN SATURDAY WITH THE AREA NOT BEING IN THE CORE OF THE BEST
JET DYNAMICS...BUT STILL IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW WITH A COOL POOL MOVING IN BEHIND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
THESE SUCCESSIVE SYSTEMS THROUGH MOVES EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA RETURNING THE REGION TO A WARM AND
DRY PATTERN. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED OVER
MODOC COUNTY WITH THE OUTGOING FRONT...AND AT THE COAST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE
MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY, CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...LACK OF STRONG FRONTS OR LARGE SWELL
COULD KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 241101
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
401 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHOWER
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARE AGAIN TODAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 60KT JET MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL BE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE NOSE
OF A 135 KT JET. THIS JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THE JET
MOVES IN SATURDAY WITH THE AREA NOT BEING IN THE CORE OF THE BEST
JET DYNAMICS...BUT STILL IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW WITH A COOL POOL MOVING IN BEHIND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
THESE SUCCESSIVE SYSTEMS THROUGH MOVES EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA RETURNING THE REGION TO A WARM AND
DRY PATTERN. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL
DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE, AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 18Z. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY, CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...LACK OF STRONG FRONTS OR LARGE SWELL
COULD KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 241101
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
401 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHOWER
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARE AGAIN TODAY AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 60KT JET MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL BE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THE NOSE
OF A 135 KT JET. THIS JET CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF THE JET
MOVES IN SATURDAY WITH THE AREA NOT BEING IN THE CORE OF THE BEST
JET DYNAMICS...BUT STILL IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. WITH ONSHORE
FLOW WITH A COOL POOL MOVING IN BEHIND SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
THESE SUCCESSIVE SYSTEMS THROUGH MOVES EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA RETURNING THE REGION TO A WARM AND
DRY PATTERN. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL
DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE, AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 18Z. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT FRIDAY, APR 24, 2015...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY, CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN TIME...LACK OF STRONG FRONTS OR LARGE SWELL
COULD KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370-376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240316
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES ALREADY MADE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH AND IS NEAR SEXTON SUMMIT
AND MOVING INLAND. RAIN HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST HAVE SEEN SOME RAINFALL.
UPDATES WERE SENT PRIMARILY TO RAISE POPS OVER AREAS THAT CONTINUE
TO SEE RAIN. RAIN WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ON THE WEST SIDE.

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT RAIN IS LARGELY
SKIPPING OVER THE VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING, AND THAT IS WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALL ALONG. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW RAINFALL RAMPING UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM
THE MODOC UP THROUGH THE WARNERS IN SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS EVENING`S UPDATES RAISED POPS IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL
AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE,
AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND 18Z. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240316
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
816 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATES ALREADY MADE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH AND IS NEAR SEXTON SUMMIT
AND MOVING INLAND. RAIN HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST HAVE SEEN SOME RAINFALL.
UPDATES WERE SENT PRIMARILY TO RAISE POPS OVER AREAS THAT CONTINUE
TO SEE RAIN. RAIN WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ON THE WEST SIDE.

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT RAIN IS LARGELY
SKIPPING OVER THE VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
EVENING, AND THAT IS WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALL ALONG. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW RAINFALL RAMPING UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT FROM
THE MODOC UP THROUGH THE WARNERS IN SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS EVENING`S UPDATES RAISED POPS IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL
AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE,
AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND 18Z. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240009 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL
AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE,
AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND 18Z. -SCHAAF/SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BMS/DW/MAP/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 240009 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL
AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE,
AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND 18Z. -SCHAAF/SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BMS/DW/MAP/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240009 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL
AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE,
AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND 18Z. -SCHAAF/SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BMS/DW/MAP/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 240009 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE COAST WHICH MAY SEE SHOWERS ALL DAY FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AS WELL
AS TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. FOR THE EASTSIDE,
AFTER THE SHOWERS END, VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL LIKELY SLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
AROUND 18Z. -SCHAAF/SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

-SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BMS/DW/MAP/MAS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 232202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AND IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD LOWER TO IFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME BETWEEN 23Z AND 3Z. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
6Z, BUT MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY OBSCURED.

INLAND WESTSIDE...VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ROSEBURG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TOWARDS 0Z. CIGS WILL LOWER, BUT REMAIN VFR IN MEDFORD WITH PARTIAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS STARTING AROUND 2Z. TONIGHT, EXPECT A MIX OF
VFR AND MVFR, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS.

EASTSIDE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCUARATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 5Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAP/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 232202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF WEST COAST WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
WILL SEND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
IN COMPARISON, THE WEATHER CREATED BY THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE
NOTABLE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THE COLDEST AIR AND
MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON WHILE THE STRONGEST OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EASTWARD TO THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND LAKE TAHOE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FIRST ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. IT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THE COAST RANGE AND THE WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THE EAST SIDE AND DECREASE AT THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN WESTERN OREGON FROM THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE NORTHWARD.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
RELATES TO THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS EACH SPREAD THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM`S EFFECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING FROM
AROUND 6000 FEET TO AROUND 4500 FEET. THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD PRODUCE AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON MOUNT
SHASTA WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THAT HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MEANTIME, THE DATA SUPPORT THE COLD
SHOWERY AIR MASS OVER THE REMAINDER/LARGE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA
PRODUCING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

A WARM FRONT RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BRUSH PAST SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
MEASUREABLE SHOWERS WILL BE AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GET INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR PARTS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. THE MODELS SHOW A
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. EVEN
THEN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE WEST OF THE CASCADES).
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN.

THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER THE PAC NW THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS INCREASES FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH, BUT IT`S
PLACED FURTHER EAST WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE AREA. THE EC
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE RIDGING. WITH ALL THAT SAID
WE`LL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT IN EITHER CASE, WERE
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...AT THE COAST...CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AND IT`S POSSIBLE THEY COULD LOWER TO IFR FOR A BRIEF
TIME BETWEEN 23Z AND 3Z. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
6Z, BUT MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY OBSCURED.

INLAND WESTSIDE...VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ROSEBURG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TOWARDS 0Z. CIGS WILL LOWER, BUT REMAIN VFR IN MEDFORD WITH PARTIAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS STARTING AROUND 2Z. TONIGHT, EXPECT A MIX OF
VFR AND MVFR, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS.

EASTSIDE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT
PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCUARATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 5Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 245 PM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015...A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BUILD BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CREATING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY BUT LOW TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
PREDICTING WAVES WHICH EXCEED 10 FEET ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS, BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANYTHING NEAR 10 FEET UNTIL
NOW. HAVE NUDGED SEAS UPWARD, BUT WILL KEEP THEM BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THIS TIME. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     11 AM TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM
     PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAP/BMS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
UPDATED TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KLAMATH COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
AND INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE PRIME TIME FOR PRECIPITATION
IN OUR AREA WILL BE TONIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THE 12Z GFS DATA HAS RECENTLY ARRIVED AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TO
EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST
SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/MAP/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 231618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
UPDATED TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KLAMATH COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
AND INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE PRIME TIME FOR PRECIPITATION
IN OUR AREA WILL BE TONIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THE 12Z GFS DATA HAS RECENTLY ARRIVED AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TO
EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST
SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/MAP/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
UPDATED TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KLAMATH COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
AND INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE PRIME TIME FOR PRECIPITATION
IN OUR AREA WILL BE TONIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THE 12Z GFS DATA HAS RECENTLY ARRIVED AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TO
EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST
SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/MAP/MAP




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231618
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
UPDATED TO RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF KLAMATH COUNTY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OCCUR NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD
AND INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE PRIME TIME FOR PRECIPITATION
IN OUR AREA WILL BE TONIGHT WITH A FOCUS ON THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

THE 12Z GFS DATA HAS RECENTLY ARRIVED AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FOLLOW ON A SIMILAR WESTERLY
TRACK ON FRIDAY AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NUDGING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS TO
EAST OF THE CASCADES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND END BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST
SOUTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

DW/MAP/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 231157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 231157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 231157
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
457 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE... VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
SPREADING TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
THIS EVENING, LOWEST IN NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231035
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
335 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. BTL/TRW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 231035
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
335 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. BTL/TRW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 231035
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
335 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. BTL/TRW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 231035
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
335 AM PDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE COAST AND DOUGLAS
COUNTY TODAY BEFORE SHOWERS SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ONLY THE LIGHT SIDE AND COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
UPSLOPE AREA AND THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE MOST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7500 FEET, JUST BARELY ABOVE CRATER LAKE
ELEVATION. COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CAME INTO A REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
WITH BOTH SHOWING A MOISTURE TAP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NW
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. BY SATURDAY
MORNING SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO 4-5000 FOOT RANGE WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT CRATER LAKE. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT BY SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMING AGAIN WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY COULD BE UNSTABLE WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS AS MODELS SHOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA. THE
TREND IS SUCH THAT BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS
WITH SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO TROUGHINESS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ARRIVES. PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
COAST RANGE TODAY WILL BECOME TOTAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SPREADING TO THE CASCADES
THIS EVENING. BTL/TRW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT THURSDAY, APR 23, 2015... WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDING BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230313
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
813 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL BREAK BETWEEN A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM: ITS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
130W, AND LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN FROM THE FRONT ARRIVING AT
THE COAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INLAND TO THE
CASCADES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK
LIGHT, BUT EVERYBODY WEST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
LITTLE RAIN TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. THE FRONT JUMPS THE
CASCADES AND QUICKLY CROSSES THE EAST SIDE TOMORROW NIGHT. IN
CONTRAST TO THE WEST SIDE, MOST OF THE EAST SIDE WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE ANYTHING WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT COOLER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ONLY 23/00Z GUIDANCE THAT WE HAVE SO FAR
IS THE NAM, BUT IT SHOWS THIS SECOND SYSTEM TO BE MUCH WETTER THAN
THE FIRST. ALL OF OUR AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE
HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE BUILDUPS AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY SO THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE,
ALBEIT SLIGHT, OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC COUNTY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER WITH THIS FRONT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE CASCADES COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WON`T BE
MUCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE
CASCADES, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN
THESE AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AT BEST A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO I ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE OTHER FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEK, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
EVEN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ITS OVER WITH.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. MND

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WARMER, THUS
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHER. EVEN THEN
IT`S POSSIBLE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IF
CURRENT TRENDS REMAINS CONSISTENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO
THIN OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, THEN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKER TO THE
EAST THAN THE EC. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT COULD STILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION.
-PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST (UP TO 30 KT). BUT THESE WINDS WILL EASE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
THE LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY BUT A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 230313
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
813 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS OUR AREA REMAINS IN THE RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL BREAK BETWEEN A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM: ITS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
130W, AND LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN FROM THE FRONT ARRIVING AT
THE COAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INLAND TO THE
CASCADES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK
LIGHT, BUT EVERYBODY WEST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A
LITTLE RAIN TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. THE FRONT JUMPS THE
CASCADES AND QUICKLY CROSSES THE EAST SIDE TOMORROW NIGHT. IN
CONTRAST TO THE WEST SIDE, MOST OF THE EAST SIDE WILL PROBABLY NOT
SEE ANYTHING WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT COOLER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ONLY 23/00Z GUIDANCE THAT WE HAVE SO FAR
IS THE NAM, BUT IT SHOWS THIS SECOND SYSTEM TO BE MUCH WETTER THAN
THE FIRST. ALL OF OUR AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE
HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE BUILDUPS AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY SO THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE,
ALBEIT SLIGHT, OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC COUNTY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER WITH THIS FRONT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE CASCADES COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WON`T BE
MUCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE
CASCADES, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN
THESE AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AT BEST A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO I ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE OTHER FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEK, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
EVEN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ITS OVER WITH.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. MND

LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WARMER, THUS
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHER. EVEN THEN
IT`S POSSIBLE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IF
CURRENT TRENDS REMAINS CONSISTENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO
THIN OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, THEN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKER TO THE
EAST THAN THE EC. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT COULD STILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION.
-PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST (UP TO 30 KT). BUT THESE WINDS WILL EASE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
THE LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY BUT A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 222359 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
459 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE
HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE BUILDUPS AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY SO THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE,
ALBEIT SLIGHT, OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC COUNTY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER WITH THIS FRONT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE CASCADES COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WON`T BE
MUCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE
CASCADES, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN
THESE AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AT BEST A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO I ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE OTHER FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEK, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
EVEN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ITS OVER WITH.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. MND

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WARMER, THUS
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHER. EVEN THEN
IT`S POSSIBLE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IF
CURRENT TRENDS REMAINS CONSISTENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO
THIN OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, THEN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKER TO THE
EAST THAN THE EC. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT COULD STILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST (UP TO 30 KT). BUT THESE WINDS WILL EASE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
THE LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY BUT A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM
 PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
 PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT
 THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MND/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 222359 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
459 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE
HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE BUILDUPS AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY SO THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE,
ALBEIT SLIGHT, OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC COUNTY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER WITH THIS FRONT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WEST
OF THE CASCADES COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WON`T BE
MUCH. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE
CASCADES, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN
THESE AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AT BEST A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO I ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE OTHER FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEK, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
EVEN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ITS OVER WITH.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. MND

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WARMER, THUS
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHER. EVEN THEN
IT`S POSSIBLE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IF
CURRENT TRENDS REMAINS CONSISTENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO
THIN OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, THEN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKER TO THE
EAST THAN THE EC. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT COULD STILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST (UP TO 30 KT). BUT THESE WINDS WILL EASE
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
THE LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND TO THE CASCADES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY BUT A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM
 PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ350-356-370.
 GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
 HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
 PZZ356-376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
 FOR PZZ376.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT
 THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

MAS/MND/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 222153
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE
HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE BUILDUPS AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY SO THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE,
ALBEIT SLIGHT, OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC COUNTY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING
FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS FRONT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CASCADES COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WON`T BE MUCH. THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE CASCADES, AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN THESE AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS...AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO I ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE OTHER FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEK, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
EVEN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ITS OVER WITH.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. MND

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WARMER, THUS
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHER. EVEN THEN
IT`S POSSIBLE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IF
CURRENT TRENDS REMAINS CONSISTENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO
THIN OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, THEN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKER TO THE
EAST THAN THE EC. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT COULD STILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE SHASTA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY BUT A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MND/MAP/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 222153
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE
HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE BUILDUPS AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY SO THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE,
ALBEIT SLIGHT, OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC COUNTY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING
FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS FRONT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CASCADES COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WON`T BE MUCH. THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE CASCADES, AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN THESE AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS...AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO I ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE OTHER FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEK, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
EVEN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ITS OVER WITH.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. MND

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WARMER, THUS
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHER. EVEN THEN
IT`S POSSIBLE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IF
CURRENT TRENDS REMAINS CONSISTENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO
THIN OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, THEN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKER TO THE
EAST THAN THE EC. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT COULD STILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE SHASTA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY BUT A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MND/MAP/MND





000
FXUS66 KMFR 222153
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN JACKSON COUNTY THAT ARE
HUGGING THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. SOME CUMULUS HAS BUBBLED UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND LAKE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THESE BUILDUPS AS THE MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA. STEERING WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY SO THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE CHANCE,
ALBEIT SLIGHT, OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN MODOC COUNTY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND WE EXPECT THESE SEASONAL NORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING
FRONT DUE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH
THIS FRONT AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CASCADES COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WON`T BE MUCH. THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST, THE CASCADES, AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVEN THESE AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS...AT BEST A TENTH OF AN INCH.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO I ADJUSTED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY TO SHOW THE FASTER
ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS MORE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH COMPARED TO THE OTHER FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEK, SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
EVEN EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 4500 FEET OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE ITS OVER WITH.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED. MND

.LONG TERM...THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND WARMER, THUS
ADJUSTED POPS LOWER AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES HIGHER. EVEN THEN
IT`S POSSIBLE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IF
CURRENT TRENDS REMAINS CONSISTENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER, BUT THEY SHOULD START TO
THIN OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS, THEN THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS QUICKER TO THE
EAST THAN THE EC. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WHICH COULD TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE EC IS
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT COULD STILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WENT WITH A BLEND
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC SOLUTION.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE SHASTA VALLEY WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS INTO
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELLS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY BUT A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

MND/MAP/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221539
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE WAS TO THIS MORNING`S SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW STRATUS BANKED UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO BURN OFF AND SHOULD BE
GONE BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST SIDE
WHERE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
GOLD BEACH, AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH COAST TODAY.

THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE CASCADES WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR AND PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
ABOUT MID-LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY IN THE KLAMATH BASIN
AND THE SHASTA VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SANDLER

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WATER ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE SWELLS
BUILD FROM A STORM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND. SANDLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM PDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE TOWARD
THE COAST AS COOLER AIR SPREADS INLAND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF LAKE COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE HEATING EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO POP UP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN
EASTERN SHASTA AND LASSEN COUNTIES, BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SPREAD THE UNSTABLE AIR NORTH INTO MODOC
COUNTY. WE HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN
MODOC COUNTY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AIR MASS
STABILIZING OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MAINLY THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SEEING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SW OREGON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CASCADES, AS WELL AS
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SEE MUCH EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. COOL
AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE PAC NW.

THERE IS A CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE NEW GFS CAME IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND SHIFTS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WE HAVE CUT DOWN ON POPS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE THERE IS
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE WARM AND MID 70S
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/FJB/RES




000
FXUS66 KMFR 221539
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
839 AM PDT WED APR 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE WAS TO THIS MORNING`S SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW STRATUS BANKED UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO BURN OFF AND SHOULD BE
GONE BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST SIDE
WHERE CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
GOLD BEACH, AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR LATE THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH COAST TODAY.

THE REST OF THE WEST SIDE TO THE CASCADES WILL BE MOSTLY VFR THOUGH
AREAS OF MVFR AND PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
ABOUT MID-LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY IN THE KLAMATH BASIN
AND THE SHASTA VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. SANDLER

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT WEDNESDAY APR 22, 2015...THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE WATER ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE SWELLS
BUILD FROM A STORM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
SATURDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND. SANDLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM PDT WED APR 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE TOWARD
THE COAST AS COOLER AIR SPREADS INLAND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS OF LAKE COUNTY. HOWEVER WITH
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE HEATING EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO POP UP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN
EASTERN SHASTA AND LASSEN COUNTIES, BUT BY THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD SPREAD THE UNSTABLE AIR NORTH INTO MODOC
COUNTY. WE HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN
MODOC COUNTY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AIR MASS
STABILIZING OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MAINLY THE COOS COUNTY COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY SEEING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SW OREGON AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CASCADES, AS WELL AS
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY, COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SEE MUCH EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA AND THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. COOL
AND SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE PAC NW.

THERE IS A CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE NEW GFS CAME IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND SHIFTS A RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT WE HAVE CUT DOWN ON POPS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WHERE THERE IS
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE WARM AND MID 70S
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/FJB/RES





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