Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS66 KMFR 280604
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1105 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LEFT
IN THROUGH 11PM PDT TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILD-UPS AND RADAR RETURNS
WEST OF SUMMER LAKE, OREGON AND OVER AND AROUND DAY, CALIFORNIA.
BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO LIGHTNING TODAY. JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PER RADAR,
SUSPECT THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ABOUT MEDICINE LAKE TO DAY AND IN THE AREA BURNED LAST SUMMER BY
THE DAY FIRE. IT WILL BE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING, THUS FAR, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING
WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/06Z...STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH
OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN TO ABOUT ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS
HOLD UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED. -MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280604
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1105 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LEFT
IN THROUGH 11PM PDT TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILD-UPS AND RADAR RETURNS
WEST OF SUMMER LAKE, OREGON AND OVER AND AROUND DAY, CALIFORNIA.
BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO LIGHTNING TODAY. JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PER RADAR,
SUSPECT THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ABOUT MEDICINE LAKE TO DAY AND IN THE AREA BURNED LAST SUMMER BY
THE DAY FIRE. IT WILL BE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING, THUS FAR, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING
WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/06Z...STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH
OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN TO ABOUT ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS
HOLD UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED. -MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280604
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1105 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LEFT
IN THROUGH 11PM PDT TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILD-UPS AND RADAR RETURNS
WEST OF SUMMER LAKE, OREGON AND OVER AND AROUND DAY, CALIFORNIA.
BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO LIGHTNING TODAY. JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PER RADAR,
SUSPECT THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ABOUT MEDICINE LAKE TO DAY AND IN THE AREA BURNED LAST SUMMER BY
THE DAY FIRE. IT WILL BE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING, THUS FAR, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING
WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/06Z...STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH
OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR IS
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN TO ABOUT ROSEBURG. ELSEWHERE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS
HOLD UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED. -MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LEFT
IN THROUGH 11PM PDT TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILD-UPS AND RADAR RETURNS
WEST OF SUMMER LAKE, OREGON AND OVER AND AROUND DAY, CALIFORNIA.
BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO LIGHTNING TODAY. JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PER RADAR,
SUSPECT THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ABOUT MEDICINE LAKE TO DAY AND IN THE AREA BURNED LAST SUMMER BY
THE DAY FIRE. IT WILL BE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING, THUS FAR, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING
WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE FLOW BECOMES EVEN
MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL IN
THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, TUESDAY MAY 17, 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS
HOLD UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED. -MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LEFT
IN THROUGH 11PM PDT TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILD-UPS AND RADAR RETURNS
WEST OF SUMMER LAKE, OREGON AND OVER AND AROUND DAY, CALIFORNIA.
BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO LIGHTNING TODAY. JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PER RADAR,
SUSPECT THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ABOUT MEDICINE LAKE TO DAY AND IN THE AREA BURNED LAST SUMMER BY
THE DAY FIRE. IT WILL BE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING, THUS FAR, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING
WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE FLOW BECOMES EVEN
MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL IN
THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, TUESDAY MAY 17, 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS
HOLD UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED. -MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LEFT
IN THROUGH 11PM PDT TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILD-UPS AND RADAR RETURNS
WEST OF SUMMER LAKE, OREGON AND OVER AND AROUND DAY, CALIFORNIA.
BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO LIGHTNING TODAY. JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PER RADAR,
SUSPECT THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ABOUT MEDICINE LAKE TO DAY AND IN THE AREA BURNED LAST SUMMER BY
THE DAY FIRE. IT WILL BE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING, THUS FAR, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING
WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE FLOW BECOMES EVEN
MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL IN
THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, TUESDAY MAY 17, 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS
HOLD UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED. -MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280347
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN LEFT
IN THROUGH 11PM PDT TO ACCOUNT FOR BUILD-UPS AND RADAR RETURNS
WEST OF SUMMER LAKE, OREGON AND OVER AND AROUND DAY, CALIFORNIA.
BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO LIGHTNING TODAY. JUST SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PER RADAR,
SUSPECT THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
ABOUT MEDICINE LAKE TO DAY AND IN THE AREA BURNED LAST SUMMER BY
THE DAY FIRE. IT WILL BE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST
SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO KEEP AN EYE ON ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SPRING, THUS FAR, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING
WETTING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TIME FRAME, WITH A COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH OF GOLD
BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE FLOW BECOMES EVEN
MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT BREAK AT ALL IN
THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, TUESDAY MAY 17, 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS
HOLD UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE
ABUNDANT AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EXTENDED. -MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272345
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
445 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT
BREAK AT ALL IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS HOLD
UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ABUNDANT
AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
-MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272345
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
445 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT
BREAK AT ALL IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS HOLD
UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ABUNDANT
AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
-MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 272345
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
445 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT
BREAK AT ALL IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS HOLD
UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ABUNDANT
AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
-MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 272345
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
445 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATER THURSDAY, SO STRATUS MAY NOT
BREAK AT ALL IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS HOLD
UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ABUNDANT
AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
-MND

LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY  FOR PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 272154
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS HOLD
UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ABUNDANT
AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
-MND

.LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z...ALONG THE COAST AND IN COASTAL VALLEYS
...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL MFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS  LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN, MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THEN VFR IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 272154
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
254 PM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE COASTAL STRATUS HUGGING
THE COAST AND CUMULUS BUBBLING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE
THE REST OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR SO FAR. ASIDE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS, FIRST OVER THE
CASCADES THEN OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION BUT STILL CAN`T RULE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
CASCADES AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
SEE SUNNY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS AROUND ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL STRATUS WILL HUG THE COAST AGAIN.

THE WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 90`S
FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY, UPPER 80`S TO LOW 90`S FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND UPPER 70`S TO LOW 80`S EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
COAST WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL
STRATUS MODERATING TEMPERATURES THERE.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE
SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES AS THE MOST FAVORABLE PLACES FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES LI`S OF -4 TO -6 BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6.5 C/KM. THE QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF IT. CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
BULLSEYES OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, LEFT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE STORMS HOLD
UP.

EXPECT A REPEAT ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ABOUT THE SAME. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ABUNDANT
AND LAPSE RATES ARE A BIT MORE STEEP SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED.
-MND

.LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST. EAST OF THE CASCADES,MODELS
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PUSH INLAND. OVERALL THOUGH,
THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL PUSH INLAND ON MONDAY. AS IT
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA MONDAY, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CASCADES EAST. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THE ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT DIMINISHING
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /CC

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z...ALONG THE COAST AND IN COASTAL VALLEYS
...EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL MFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS  LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN, MAINLY FOR THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. THEN VFR IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
/CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALLOWING
WIND SPEEDS TO LOWER AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COME DOWN, THUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR CHOPPY SEAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MND/CC/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS ADD A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND AREAS WEST OF THE COAST RANGE. THESE
LOW CLOUDS NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO ROSEBURG BUT THERE IS A LITTLE
PATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
BACK OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS WARMING TREND AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY CALM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -BPN/BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$

MND/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 271541
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
841 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE MADE THIS MORNING WAS ADD A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED
IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS AND AREAS WEST OF THE COAST RANGE. THESE
LOW CLOUDS NEVER QUITE MADE IT TO ROSEBURG BUT THERE IS A LITTLE
PATCH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. EXPECT
TODAY TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN
BACK OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE CASCADES
WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY COULD FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THIS WARMING TREND AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -MND

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN UMPQUA BASIN THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO REFORM TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUESDAY 27 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND TODAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY CALM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -BPN/BTL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
$$

MND/FJB/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270959
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270959
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270600
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOU AND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL/WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270409
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
909 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOUAND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY
WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...
SURFACE HIGH  PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN
SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270409
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
909 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES THROUGH 11
PM PDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
70 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE RECORDED BY THE
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SISKIYOUAND
MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESES STORMS ALSO PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, AS WAS EVIDENCED BY THE 0.52" AND WIND GUST OF 29MPH
RECORDED AT THE ROUND MOUNTAIN RAWS BETWEEN 415PM PDT AND 515PM
PDT. OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE DEVILS GARDEN RAWS AND ALTURAS
AND CANBY RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK
MARGINAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
THREAT DRIFTS WESTWARD TO THE CASCADES, THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ONLY A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A NEW UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING WITH IT A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WE EXPECT MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY
WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...
SURFACE HIGH  PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN
SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
  THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BTL/CC/TRW





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270012
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN,
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270012
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN,
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 270012
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MODOC COUNTY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH. AREAS OF
STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN UMPQUA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING
OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN,
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 262132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC


&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 02-03Z AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE EVENING
THROUGH WEDENSDAY MORNING. INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MFR CIGS IN
NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH AROUND 23Z. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY TO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC/DW/WRIGHT




000
FXUS66 KMFR 262132
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AND WESTERLY MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS,
ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHTNING GUIDANCE AND HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER THE CWA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY BUT ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN OREGON EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING.

THEN AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THOUGH ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE AREA FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY...NORTHWARD
INTO JACKSON COUNTY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS RELATIVELY
LOW SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY SHORTWAVES MAY ALTER.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, DUE TO THE LOW MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES...AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH A
POTENTIAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS.
SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
SATURDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A
RELATIVE BROAD BRUSH OF A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS UTILIZED AS MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE REGARDING
THE SPEED/POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS ITS TYPICAL BIAS, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND WOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INITIALLY WEST OF THE CASCADES THEN INTO EASTERN AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS A FOCUS ON THE WEST
SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SPELL OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, THIS IS A LARGE ENOUGH TROUGH WITH A LIKELY
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY END UP AS SCATTERED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE
COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE COAST. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA.

WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE IS AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY THAT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE. WITH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOW LIKELY
TO BE OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL BRING COOLING, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, AND A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS.

BY DAY 7, TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS THE GFS SOLUTION SENDS THE
UPPER LOW EAST OF OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION. THUS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MAINTAINED WITH A FOCUS ON THE EAST
SIDE. -DW/CC


&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 02-03Z AND BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE EVENING
THROUGH WEDENSDAY MORNING. INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED MFR CIGS IN
NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY THROUGH AROUND 23Z. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE COQUILLE VALLEY TO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130W AND 140W THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE JUST INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC/DW/WRIGHT





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WESTERLY
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MODELS  INDICATE THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA.

THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH MODELS FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...MOVING INLAND AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES...THEN POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD MAY EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING AREAS WEST OF
THE CASCADES.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST HAVE SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEX
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261534
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST
OREGON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WESTERLY
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. MODELS  INDICATE THAT THE
THERMODYNAMICS, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, WOULD
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA.

THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NUDGING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH MODELS FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY.

THEN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...MOVING INLAND AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES...THEN POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD MAY EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING AREAS WEST OF
THE CASCADES.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST HAVE SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, ALSO RESULTING IN AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR TO THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO THE COAST TONIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEX
FROM CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN




000
FXUS66 KMFR 261048
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
348 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHILE A LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE
WARMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES. A FEW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
INITIATE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS EAST NORTHEAST
INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY OVER
OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS NE INTO THE
MEDICINE LAKE AREA. HOWEVER THE NAM12 SHOWS ROBUST LIFTED INDEXFROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS DOES
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE FEATURE. I HAVE INTRODUCED A THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE OVER THE CRATER LAKE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON
THIS FEATURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE DEFINITION ON THE GFS.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY MAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
VERY WARM DAYS OF THE WEEK. THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD START TO
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ACCELERATE THE COOLING IF MODELS DURING THE DAY RUN
SHOW MORE ROBUST COOLING. SUNDAY, THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, COULD
TURN OUT TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY
STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MODERATE WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/00Z NAM IN.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTIES. THOSE ARE NOW DISSIPATING
WITH ONE LAST THUNDERSTORM LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MODOC COUNTY.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS BLOCKY THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY A WEAK REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WASHINGTON STATE BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY
WITH THE LOW JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WARM AND DRY...BUT THE FLOW OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE IN.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND COVERAGE TO BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THEY WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT EAST WEDNESDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE CWA. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA AS THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW FARTHER NORTH AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH PERSISTS IN THE SAME LOCATION.

THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MORE STRONGLY THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND...AND MEDFORD MAY
SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IS NOW DIMINISHING
WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND
MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MND/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEK...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. -MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
        EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15




000
FXUS66 KMFR 260301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...26/00Z NAM IN.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
SISKIYOU AND SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTIES. THOSE ARE NOW DISSIPATING
WITH ONE LAST THUNDERSTORM LINGERING OVER SOUTHWEST MODOC COUNTY.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEST COAST REMAINS BLOCKY THIS
EVENING. CURRENTLY A WEAK REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THE LOW ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WASHINGTON STATE BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TUESDAY
WITH THE LOW JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA WARM AND DRY...BUT THE FLOW OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MORE WESTERLY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE IN.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND COVERAGE TO BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THEY WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT EAST WEDNESDAY AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE CWA. MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA AS THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP SOUTH OF THE CWA.
THE LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW FARTHER NORTH AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH PERSISTS IN THE SAME LOCATION.

THE OFFSHORE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MORE STRONGLY THURSDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND...AND MEDFORD MAY
SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES IS NOW DIMINISHING
WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND
MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC
COUNTIES. MND/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND
SOUTH. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEK...MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. -MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
        EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 252306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECORD
THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. /SVEN

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STREGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK...MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. /MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/DW/MND




000
FXUS66 KMFR 252306
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
406 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY TO RECORD
THEIR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. /SVEN

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST INCREASE OF 700-500 MB MOISTURE WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WARRANTS INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SISKIYOU AND CASCADE MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT LIKELY EAST OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE REGION OF FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE POSITIONING OF
THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE 700MB STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR COAST FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION OF
THIS LOW IS UNCERTAIN. IF IT IS FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED ON SUNDAY. BUT, THERE IS ABOUT
AN EQUAL PROBABILITY THAT RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AND LEAD
TO A LOWER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN ON
SATURDAY. BY MONDAY, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY NEAR OUR REGION TO BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS, LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EARLY OUTLOOK IS FOR HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON DAY 8 THROUGH 10.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PEAK IN STREGTH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOUTH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN WEAKENS, HOWEVER NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE WEEK...MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. /MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/DW/MND





000
FXUS66 KMFR 252202
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST...MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE WITH WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA
EASTWARD. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS MOVING THESE STORMS TO THE
EAST. THIS PATTERN MAKES A RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR
RESULTS.

ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING FURTHER INLAND. THIS WILL PUSH THE
AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGENCE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO POSITION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING. SVEN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED
FROM THE COAST WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WHILE AREAS OF IFR CIGS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS WILL SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL AND UMPQUA VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY MORNING. /DW

&&

.MARINE....MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. HOWEVER STEEP SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, EXPECT AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251501
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD DECK OVER THE WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BE DISSIPATING
MUCH FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
COLD POOLS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEY AD INDICATING HIGHS IN THE MID
40S ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MET GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT HIGHS. THIS...COMPARED WITH THE HIGH YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LEADS ME TO LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY WHERE THEY ARE. CU IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOPE IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGANCE...CONFIRMING THAT AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT FEELING AS CONFIDENT FOR ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND HAVE REMOVED SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CASCADES. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
THIS MORNING, AND THUS THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. STRATUS HAS MOVED ONTO MOST OF THE COAST AND
IS BEGINNING TO BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE CASCADE
CREST. GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A
LITTLE COOLING ALOFT AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON THE
EAST SIDE AND CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
BUT WITH A BIT LESS INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE INLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
RELATIVELY HOT WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE SUPPRESSED. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WE GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.  THEN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. FOR INLAND AREAS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. HOWEVER STEEP SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, EXPECT AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 251456
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
756 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD DECK OVER THE WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BE DISSIPATING
MUCH FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
COLD POOLS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEY AD INDICATING HIGHS IN THE MID
40S ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MET GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT HIGHS. THIS...COMPARED WITH THE HIGH YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LEADS ME TO LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY WHERE THEY ARE. CU IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOPE IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGANCE...CONFIRMING THAT AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT FEELING AS CONFIDENT FOR ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
THIS MORNING, AND THUS THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. STRATUS HAS MOVED ONTO MOST OF THE COAST AND
IS BEGINNING TO BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE CASCADE
CREST. GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A
LITTLE COOLING ALOFT AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON THE
EAST SIDE AND CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
BUT WITH A BIT LESS INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE INLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
RELATIVELY HOT WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE SUPPRESSED. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WE GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.  THEN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. FOR INLAND AREAS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. HOWEVER STEEP SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, EXPECT AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251456
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
756 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD DECK OVER THE WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BE DISSIPATING
MUCH FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
COLD POOLS IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEY AD INDICATING HIGHS IN THE MID
40S ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT THE MET GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT HIGHS. THIS...COMPARED WITH THE HIGH YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER LEADS ME TO LEAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY WHERE THEY ARE. CU IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOPE IN SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTY WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AND THETA E CONVERGANCE...CONFIRMING THAT AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT FEELING AS CONFIDENT FOR ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
THIS MORNING, AND THUS THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY OVER
MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY. STRATUS HAS MOVED ONTO MOST OF THE COAST AND
IS BEGINNING TO BANK UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE CASCADE
CREST. GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING A
LITTLE COOLING ALOFT AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE INSTABILITY ON THE
EAST SIDE AND CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
BUT WITH A BIT LESS INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE.

AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE INLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
RELATIVELY HOT WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE SUPPRESSED. BUT WHEN THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND WE GET INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST, MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING.VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.  THEN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. FOR INLAND AREAS...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND
THE UMPQUA AND ROGUE VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 400 AM PDT MONDAY 25 MAY 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTH. HOWEVER STEEP SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO, EXPECT AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TO PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities