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000
FXUS66 KMFR 280301
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS MAD FOR
A BEAUTIFUL SUNSET OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS SMOKE, AND IT HAS RESULTED IN HAZY,
IF NOT DOWNRIGHT SMOKEY, SKIES AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY WILL
RETURN BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. INLAND...THE IFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. /SVEN


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY
BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES
INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH
WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/SVEN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.
HOWEVER...LIFTED INDICES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE BOTH
MARGINAL...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND NO MENTION OF INLAND CONVECTION.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/12Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/12Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE TUESDAY BUT DIGS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH A
WEAKER COOLING TREND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND A
SLIGHT BIT OF COOLING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
     11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/JRS/SBN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 272105
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.
HOWEVER...LIFTED INDICES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE BOTH
MARGINAL...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND NO MENTION OF INLAND CONVECTION.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/12Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/12Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE TUESDAY BUT DIGS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH A
WEAKER COOLING TREND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND A
SLIGHT BIT OF COOLING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE NORTH COAST WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND
COQUILLE VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...THE IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-
15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES,
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/04





000
FXUS66 KMFR 272105
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
205 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.
HOWEVER...LIFTED INDICES AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE BOTH
MARGINAL...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST. AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST AND NO MENTION OF INLAND CONVECTION.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/12Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/12Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE TUESDAY BUT DIGS A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH A
WEAKER COOLING TREND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND A
SLIGHT BIT OF COOLING FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR
STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE NORTH COAST WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AND
COQUILLE VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND...THE IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO INTRUDE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRATUS AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSEBURG AROUND 13Z-
15Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES,
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS THE THERMAL
SLOWLY STRENGTHENS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. -SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/04






000
FXUS66 KMFR 271500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/06Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/00Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH IT
DOES FLATTEN IT OUT WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY WITH A WEAKER COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND IN COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT, BECOMING A MIX OF IFR/MVFR,  AND BEGIN TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR AROUND 17Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO BRIEFLY CLEAR FOR MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LOW STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BETWEEN 00-03Z TO THE COAST AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. INLAND...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT OF AREAS OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN  SISKIYOU
COUNTY. -CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY TODAY, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD.  SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO
CAPE SEBASTIAN FROM 5 TO 40 NM FROM SHORE TODAY. THE AREA
IMPACTED BY SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA ON
THURSDAY AND STEEP SEAS WILL SPREAD OVER MOST THE WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
        THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
        TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 271500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COASTAL VALLEYS. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
CASCADES FIRES CONTINUE TO CRANK OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS. MEDFORD WILL FLIRT WITH A HIGH OF 100 DEGREES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. OVERALL IT WON`T MAKE
MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT INLAND LOCATIONS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AS MODEL LIFTED INDICES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY THERE.

ON FRIDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS FEATURE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL CONCERNS. IT WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONT ONSHORE FRIDAY AND IT WILL BE BREEZY EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AND ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL
BE COOLER THOUGH...AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA...AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE A WEAK
EVENT.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING
A BIT TUESDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

THE 27/06Z GFS SOLUTION SHOWS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE TROUGH LOOKS TO WEAK TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. IT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 27/00Z EC HOLDS ON
TO A RIDGE IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH IT
DOES FLATTEN IT OUT WEDNESDAY. IF THAT VERIFIES...IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY WITH A WEAKER COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND IN COASTAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT, BECOMING A MIX OF IFR/MVFR,  AND BEGIN TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR AROUND 17Z THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO BRIEFLY CLEAR FOR MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE LOW STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS WILL RETURN
BETWEEN 00-03Z TO THE COAST AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. INLAND...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT OF AREAS OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN  SISKIYOU
COUNTY. -CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 600 AM PDT WED 26 AUG 2014...AS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY TODAY, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE AREAS NEAR CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD.  SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS FROM CAPE BLANCO TO
CAPE SEBASTIAN FROM 5 TO 40 NM FROM SHORE TODAY. THE AREA
IMPACTED BY SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA ON
THURSDAY AND STEEP SEAS WILL SPREAD OVER MOST THE WATERS. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES INLAND, EXPECT INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. -CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
        THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
        TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15






000
FXUS66 KMFR 271008
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
308 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A COUPLE OF FEATURES
THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER THE 36 HOURS. FIRST AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS. SECOND IS AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150 W THAT WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND PUSHING INLAND INTO THE COQUILLE
BASIN, BUT I DON`T EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PENETRATE ANY
FURTHER. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
OF SMOKE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE JULY COMPLEX AND NEAR
THE SKY LAKES FIRE. THE SMOKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST THIS WEEK
WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE ROGUE AND KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF US THURSDAY
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES, OTHERWISE EXPECT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
CONDITIONS AS WEDNESDAY.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER WEST OF
THE CASCADES AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO END UP BELOW NORMAL
AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT
FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE EXPERIENCING. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND FROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD SNEAK
IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES,
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER DRY SUBLAYER AND PWATS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO SUSPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE ON LABOR DAY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. THE
EC HAS THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED NEAR 140 W WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST (NEAR 145 W). EITHER WAY IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE
HOLIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP WARMER IF THE EC SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OF NOTE THE RMOP SUGGEST A HIGHER PROBABILITY THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED FARTHER EAST, SO FOR NOW WE`LL LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
ALL COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS THERE
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, IF NOT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ENTIRELY.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AS WELL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONTINUED MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY. -BPN/MND


&&


.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BRIEFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL.
-BPN/MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 271008
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
308 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A COUPLE OF FEATURES
THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER THE 36 HOURS. FIRST AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS. SECOND IS AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 150 W THAT WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS
CONFINED TO THE COAST AND PUSHING INLAND INTO THE COQUILLE
BASIN, BUT I DON`T EXPECT THE MARINE STRATUS TO PENETRATE ANY
FURTHER. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
OF SMOKE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE JULY COMPLEX AND NEAR
THE SKY LAKES FIRE. THE SMOKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST THIS WEEK
WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE ROGUE AND KLAMATH RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF US THURSDAY
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES, OTHERWISE EXPECT PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
CONDITIONS AS WEDNESDAY.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER WEST OF
THE CASCADES AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO END UP BELOW NORMAL
AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THE CURRENT
FIRES IN OUR REGION BECAUSE IT COULD BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE
SPREAD CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRYNESS WERE EXPERIENCING. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND FROM
CRATER LAKE NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD SNEAK
IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES,
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER DRY SUBLAYER AND PWATS ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO SUSPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

THE EC AND GFS DIVERGE ON LABOR DAY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. THE
EC HAS THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED NEAR 140 W WHILE THE GFS IS
FARTHER WEST (NEAR 145 W). EITHER WAY IT LOOKS DRY FOR THE
HOLIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP WARMER IF THE EC SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OF NOTE THE RMOP SUGGEST A HIGHER PROBABILITY THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED FARTHER EAST, SO FOR NOW WE`LL LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
ALL COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS THERE
TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, IF NOT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ENTIRELY.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AS WELL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CONTINUED MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY. -BPN/MND


&&


.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BRIEFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL.
-BPN/MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR ORZ021.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-370.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 270307
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
807 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WINDS ALONG
THE COAST FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL SCALE EDDIES
THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING. OTHERWISE, WILL
BE WATCHING THE SMOKE OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, WHCIH APPEARS
TO HAVE INTENSIFIED AS PER THE LAST FEW VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGES
BEFORE SUNSET. ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LARGER AREA OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
THE COASTAL SITES INCLUDING KOTH AND KBOK. EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDTIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.
/MND


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVEING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTREGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STREGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURDSAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BREIFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL.
/MND


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS
HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS EVENING EXPECT THIS
FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BACK ONSHORE.

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY TODAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN UP ABOUT 10KFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. EXPECT THAT HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN THE SAME AREAS AS IT IS NOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE CALENDER DATE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL NOT MUCH.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN TO THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LESSER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL LIKELY
TO BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL
AND THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

ONE FOOTNOTE IS EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES CENTERED ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
HAVE RISEN SUCH THAT WE PROBABLY WON`T NEED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS GIVE THE DRYNESS WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL/MND








000
FXUS66 KMFR 270307
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
807 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WINDS ALONG
THE COAST FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL SCALE EDDIES
THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING. OTHERWISE, WILL
BE WATCHING THE SMOKE OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, WHCIH APPEARS
TO HAVE INTENSIFIED AS PER THE LAST FEW VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGES
BEFORE SUNSET. ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LARGER AREA OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
THE COASTAL SITES INCLUDING KOTH AND KBOK. EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDTIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.
/MND


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVEING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTREGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STREGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURDSAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BREIFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL.
/MND


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS
HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS EVENING EXPECT THIS
FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BACK ONSHORE.

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY TODAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN UP ABOUT 10KFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. EXPECT THAT HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN THE SAME AREAS AS IT IS NOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE CALENDER DATE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL NOT MUCH.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN TO THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LESSER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL LIKELY
TO BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL
AND THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

ONE FOOTNOTE IS EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES CENTERED ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
HAVE RISEN SUCH THAT WE PROBABLY WON`T NEED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS GIVE THE DRYNESS WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL/MND







000
FXUS66 KMFR 262346
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS
HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS EVENING EXPECT THIS
FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BACK ONSHORE.

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY TODAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN UP ABOUT 10KFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. EXPECT THAT HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN THE SAME AREAS AS IT IS NOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE CALENDER DATE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL NOT MUCH.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN TO THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LESSER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL LIKELY
TO BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL
AND THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

ONE FOOTNOTE IS EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES CENTERED ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
HAVE RISEN SUCH THAT WE PROBABLY WON`T NEED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS GIVE THE DRYNESS WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
THE COASTAL SITES INCLUDING KOTH AND KBOK. EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. MND

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BRIEFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/DW/MND







000
FXUS66 KMFR 262346
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
446 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS
HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS EVENING EXPECT THIS
FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BACK ONSHORE.

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY TODAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN UP ABOUT 10KFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. EXPECT THAT HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN THE SAME AREAS AS IT IS NOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE CALENDER DATE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL NOT MUCH.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN TO THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LESSER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL LIKELY
TO BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL
AND THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

ONE FOOTNOTE IS EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES CENTERED ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
HAVE RISEN SUCH THAT WE PROBABLY WON`T NEED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS GIVE THE DRYNESS WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
THE COASTAL SITES INCLUDING KOTH AND KBOK. EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. MND

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BRIEFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL. MND

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT
     THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/DW/MND








000
FXUS66 KMFR 262131
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
231 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS
HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS EVENING EXPECT THIS
FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BACK ONSHORE.

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY TODAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN UP ABOUT 10KFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. EXPECT THAT HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN THE SAME AREAS AS IT IS NOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE CALENDER DATE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL NOT MUCH.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN TO THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LESSER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL LIKELY
TO BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL
AND THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

ONE FOOTNOTE IS EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES CENTERED ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
HAVE RISEN SUCH THAT WE PROBABLY WON`T NEED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS GIVE THE DRYNESS WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
THERE IS LOCALLY LINGERING LIFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST. THE LIFR/IFR WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  VFR WILL PERSIST WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. THEN WEDNESDAY EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WITH SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN AS NORTH WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, STEEP CHOPPY SEAS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. SEAS LOWER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
  FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/DW/MND








000
FXUS66 KMFR 262131
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
231 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS
HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS EVENING EXPECT THIS
FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BACK ONSHORE.

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY TODAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN UP ABOUT 10KFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. EXPECT THAT HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN THE SAME AREAS AS IT IS NOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE CALENDER DATE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL NOT MUCH.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN TO THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LESSER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL LIKELY
TO BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL
AND THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

ONE FOOTNOTE IS EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES CENTERED ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
HAVE RISEN SUCH THAT WE PROBABLY WON`T NEED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS GIVE THE DRYNESS WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...
THERE IS LOCALLY LINGERING LIFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND FOG ALONG THE
COAST. THE LIFR/IFR WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  VFR WILL PERSIST WITH
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. THEN WEDNESDAY EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WITH SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN AS NORTH WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, STEEP CHOPPY SEAS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. SEAS LOWER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL. /CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
  FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/DW/MND







000
FXUS66 KMFR 261617
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED A SHORT TIME AGO TO REFINE THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO
BETTER DEPICT AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO SKY LAKES WILDFIRE, THE STALEY/DECEPTION WILDFIRE IN
WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COASTALLY TRAPPED WIND REVERSAL, ALSO KNOWN AS A MARINE STRATUS
SURGE, OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF NORTH BEND OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS
BEFORE RETURNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WEST AND SOUTH OF
ACTIVE FIRES TO SOUTHWEST TO EAST OF THEM AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...
LIFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING BECOMING VFR FOR MOST AREA. HOWEVER PATCHES OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN
DURING THE EVENING, EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST
ONCE AGAIN. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
BRING MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. THEN WEDNESDAY EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WITH SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN AS NORTH WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, STEEP CHOPPY SEAS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. SEAS LOWER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24-72 HOURS RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. CURRENT FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS MARINE STRATUS COVERING THE COAST AND SOME OF THAT
COULD PUSH A LITTLE INLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND NEAR THE 790 FIRE IN THE CASCADES. TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT PARTS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 24 C. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ZIP BY NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOME AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CASCADES. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST RELATIVE
TO WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE WEEK). ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTH OF THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
AXIS POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PREVENT THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE FROM BEING DRAWN INTO THE COLD FRONT. THE 700-500 MB
MOISTURE FIELD IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THEN THE
VALUES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUGGEST ANYTHING FROM MARIE WILL BE
DRAWN IN. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY. WITH THAT SAID THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN CASCADES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
  FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAP








000
FXUS66 KMFR 261617
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED A SHORT TIME AGO TO REFINE THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOG AND STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO
BETTER DEPICT AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO SKY LAKES WILDFIRE, THE STALEY/DECEPTION WILDFIRE IN
WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COASTALLY TRAPPED WIND REVERSAL, ALSO KNOWN AS A MARINE STRATUS
SURGE, OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF NORTH BEND OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS
BEFORE RETURNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE,
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN THE AREA WILL SHIFT FROM WEST AND SOUTH OF
ACTIVE FIRES TO SOUTHWEST TO EAST OF THEM AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...
LIFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING BECOMING VFR FOR MOST AREA. HOWEVER PATCHES OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN
DURING THE EVENING, EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE COAST
ONCE AGAIN. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
BRING MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 630 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
MARINE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
THE WATERS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. THEN WEDNESDAY EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WITH SOME
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO  REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN AS NORTH WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, STEEP CHOPPY SEAS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. SEAS LOWER LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS
INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24-72 HOURS RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. CURRENT FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS MARINE STRATUS COVERING THE COAST AND SOME OF THAT
COULD PUSH A LITTLE INLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND NEAR THE 790 FIRE IN THE CASCADES. TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT PARTS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 24 C. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ZIP BY NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOME AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CASCADES. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST RELATIVE
TO WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE WEEK). ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTH OF THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
AXIS POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PREVENT THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE FROM BEING DRAWN INTO THE COLD FRONT. THE 700-500 MB
MOISTURE FIELD IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THEN THE
VALUES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUGGEST ANYTHING FROM MARIE WILL BE
DRAWN IN. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY. WITH THAT SAID THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN CASCADES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
  FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BTL/CC/MAP







000
FXUS66 KMFR 261029
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24-72 HOURS RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. CURRENT FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS MARINE STRATUS COVERING THE COAST AND SOME OF THAT
COULD PUSH A LITTLE INLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND NEAR THE 790 FIRE IN THE CASCADES. TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT PARTS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 24 C. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ZIP BY NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOME AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CASCADES. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST RELATIVE
TO WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE WEEK). ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTH OF THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
AXIS POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PREVENT THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE FROM BEING DRAWN INTO THE COLD FRONT. THE 700-500 MB
MOISTURE FIELD IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THEN THE
VALUES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUGGEST ANYTHING FROM MARIE WILL BE
DRAWN IN. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY. WITH THAT SAID THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN CASCADES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A SOUTHERLY MARINE SURGE UP THE SOUTH COAST HAS BROUGHT IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG FROM BROOKINGS TO CAPE BLANCO THIS EVENING. LIFR/IFR IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS, BUT STUBBORN CLOUDS MAY TAKE
LONGER TO COMPLETELY ERODE IN OTHERS. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS
HAS ALLOWED COASTAL WIND REVERSAL TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
BRINGING STRATUS LOW CLOUDS PAST BROOKINGS TO AROUND GOLD BEACH.
EXPECT THIS MOVEMENT TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING TO CAPE BLANCO. ELSEWHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX.
FB/SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 261029
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24-72 HOURS RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. CURRENT FOG
PRODUCT SHOWS MARINE STRATUS COVERING THE COAST AND SOME OF THAT
COULD PUSH A LITTLE INLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND NEAR THE 790 FIRE IN THE CASCADES. TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT PARTS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 24 C. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOING TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ZIP BY NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOME AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER (BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL) TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE CASCADES. A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST RELATIVE
TO WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE WEEK). ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NORTH OF THE AREA. ACTUALLY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH
AXIS POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PREVENT THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE FROM BEING DRAWN INTO THE COLD FRONT. THE 700-500 MB
MOISTURE FIELD IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THEN THE
VALUES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUGGEST ANYTHING FROM MARIE WILL BE
DRAWN IN. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY. WITH THAT SAID THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN CASCADES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES DUE TO ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A SOUTHERLY MARINE SURGE UP THE SOUTH COAST HAS BROUGHT IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG FROM BROOKINGS TO CAPE BLANCO THIS EVENING. LIFR/IFR IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN MOST AREAS, BUT STUBBORN CLOUDS MAY TAKE
LONGER TO COMPLETELY ERODE IN OTHERS. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS
HAS ALLOWED COASTAL WIND REVERSAL TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
BRINGING STRATUS LOW CLOUDS PAST BROOKINGS TO AROUND GOLD BEACH.
EXPECT THIS MOVEMENT TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING TO CAPE BLANCO. ELSEWHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX.
FB/SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$









000
FXUS66 KMFR 260400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS A COASTAL WIND REVERSAL SENDS
A STRATUS SURGE NORTHWARD PAST GOLD BEACH TO CAPE BLANCO (SEE
MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW). EXPECT STRATUS TO FILL IN OVER THE REST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INLAND PUSH INTO
COASTAL COOS COUNTY, BUT THAT`S ABOUT AS FAR AS IT WILL GET. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME THICK WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE 790 FIRE IN THE
CASCADES. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MOVED NORTH PAST BROOKINGS TO
GOLD BEACH THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM
THE FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY WEST OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR
VIS FROM SEIAD VALLEY WEST TO HAPPY CAMP THEN SOUTH TO THE SALMON
RIVER VALLEY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONFINE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS IN LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AT KOTH.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS
HAS ALLOWED COASTAL WIND REVERSAL TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
BRINGING STRATUS LOW CLOUDS PAST BROOKINGS TO AROUND GOLD BEACH.
EXPECT THIS MOVEMENT TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING TO CAPE BLANCO. ELSEWHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX.
FB/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOME CUMULUS SPROUTING OVER THE EAST SIDE. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY CONTINUE TO PUT
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST
SIDE LAST NIGHT HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/JRS/FJB/BTL







000
FXUS66 KMFR 260400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS A COASTAL WIND REVERSAL SENDS
A STRATUS SURGE NORTHWARD PAST GOLD BEACH TO CAPE BLANCO (SEE
MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW). EXPECT STRATUS TO FILL IN OVER THE REST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INLAND PUSH INTO
COASTAL COOS COUNTY, BUT THAT`S ABOUT AS FAR AS IT WILL GET. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME THICK WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE 790 FIRE IN THE
CASCADES. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 26/00Z TAF CYCLE...
IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MOVED NORTH PAST BROOKINGS TO
GOLD BEACH THIS AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM
THE FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY WEST OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR
VIS FROM SEIAD VALLEY WEST TO HAPPY CAMP THEN SOUTH TO THE SALMON
RIVER VALLEY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONFINE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS IN LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AT KOTH.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 730 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS
HAS ALLOWED COASTAL WIND REVERSAL TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
BRINGING STRATUS LOW CLOUDS PAST BROOKINGS TO AROUND GOLD BEACH.
EXPECT THIS MOVEMENT TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS
SPREADING TO CAPE BLANCO. ELSEWHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX.
FB/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOME CUMULUS SPROUTING OVER THE EAST SIDE. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY CONTINUE TO PUT
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST
SIDE LAST NIGHT HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/JRS/FJB/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 252005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOME CUMULUS SPROUTING OVER THE EAST SIDE. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY CONTINUE TO PUT
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST
SIDE LAST NIGHT HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL HOVER JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF BROOKINGS ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. OFFSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY WEST OF
THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND IN CALIFORNIA, WHILE SOME LIGHTER SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF OF THE SKY LAKES/790 WILDFIRE ACROSS
JACKSON COUNTY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONFINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT BOTH ON THE COOS
COAST AND SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TO INCLUDE BROOKINGS. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AT
KOTH. HAVE SCALED BACK DURATION COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE
OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING AND LATER TOMORROW
MORNING TO PUSH THE MARINE LAYER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL
PREVAIL. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHER WIND WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX.
/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/08





000
FXUS66 KMFR 252005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOME CUMULUS SPROUTING OVER THE EAST SIDE. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY CONTINUE TO PUT
OUT A LOT OF SMOKE.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST
SIDE LAST NIGHT HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A LONG
WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL HOVER JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF BROOKINGS ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. OFFSHORE FLOW
TODAY WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN SISKIYOU COUNTY WEST OF
THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND IN CALIFORNIA, WHILE SOME LIGHTER SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF OF THE SKY LAKES/790 WILDFIRE ACROSS
JACKSON COUNTY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONFINE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT BOTH ON THE COOS
COAST AND SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TO INCLUDE BROOKINGS. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AT
KOTH. HAVE SCALED BACK DURATION COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE BECAUSE
OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING AND LATER TOMORROW
MORNING TO PUSH THE MARINE LAYER OUT TO SEA. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL
PREVAIL. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHER WIND WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER
SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX.
/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
        PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/08






000
FXUS66 KMFR 251929
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1230 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...THE COQUILLE VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME CUMULUS OVER MODOC COUNTY AND A
THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVED INTO LASSEN COUNTY FROM MODOC COUNTY.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
ONE IN THE SKY LAKES WILDERNESS CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
SMOKE.

A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT LEAVES LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING
TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...
IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HOVER JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
BROOKINGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WEST OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND IN CALIFORNIA,
WHILE SOME LIGHTER SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF OF THE SKY
LAKES/790 WILDFIRE ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS
LIKELY TO CONFINE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT BOTH ON THE COOS COAST AND SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TO INCLUDE
BROOKINGS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING AT KOTH. HAVE SCALED BACK DURATION COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING AND
LATER TOMORROW MORNING TO PUSH THE MARINE LAYER OUT TO SEA.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHER WIND WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET
OR HIGHER SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND
TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA
RELAX. BTL/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
        THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
        PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/BTL/BPN









000
FXUS66 KMFR 251929
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1230 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...THE COQUILLE VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME CUMULUS OVER MODOC COUNTY AND A
THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVED INTO LASSEN COUNTY FROM MODOC COUNTY.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
ONE IN THE SKY LAKES WILDERNESS CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
SMOKE.

A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT LEAVES LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING
TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/18Z TAF CYCLE...
IFR TO LIFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HOVER JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
BROOKINGS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WEST OF THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND IN CALIFORNIA,
WHILE SOME LIGHTER SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF OF THE SKY
LAKES/790 WILDFIRE ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS
LIKELY TO CONFINE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TONIGHT BOTH ON THE COOS COAST AND SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH TO INCLUDE
BROOKINGS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY MORNING AT KOTH. HAVE SCALED BACK DURATION COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THIS EVENING AND
LATER TOMORROW MORNING TO PUSH THE MARINE LAYER OUT TO SEA.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHER WIND WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET
OR HIGHER SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND
TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA
RELAX. BTL/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
        THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
        PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/BTL/BPN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 251500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...THE COQUILLE VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME CUMULUS OVER MODOC COUNTY AND A
THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVED INTO LASSEN COUNTY FROM MODOC COUNTY.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
ONE IN THE SKY LAKES WILDERNESS CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
SMOKE.

A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT LEAVES LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING
TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND SOME OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE
UMPQUA BASIN. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PUSH AND
DISSIPATE THE MARINE STRATUS AND FOG BACK INTO THE OCEAN MID TO
LATE MORNING MONDAY RESULTING IN VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
WILDFIRE SMOKE, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PUSH THE
IFR SMOKE WEST OF THE SHASTA AND SCOTT VALLEYS MONDAY, THOUGH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR. VFR WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SPILDE/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS, HIGHER WIND
WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
        THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
        PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 251500
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM IN.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS MARINE STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...THE COQUILLE VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME CUMULUS OVER MODOC COUNTY AND A
THUNDERSTORMS JUST MOVED INTO LASSEN COUNTY FROM MODOC COUNTY.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND
ONE IN THE SKY LAKES WILDERNESS CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT OF
SMOKE.

A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. ONCE THAT LEAVES LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT IS NOW STARTING
TO DEVELOP. IT WILL PEAK TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BREAK TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY OR SO...WHICH IS 24 HOURS LATER THAN DEPICTED BY
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY. THIS WON`T AFFECT THE OFFSHORE FLOW
EVENT MUCH...IT WILL STILL LIKELY END WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...MAKING
WEDNESDAY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FROM THE WEST SIDE TO
KLAMATH COUNTY. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS
HOT...AND NOW FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MODOC
AND LAKE COUNTIES AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THAT AREA
THEN.

AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DIG A STRONGER TROUGH THAN THE
EC...BUT BOTH ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH. IN EITHER SCENARIO...A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME
SATURDAY...AND THIS MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY.

POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL KICK OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND SOME OF THE COASTAL VALLEYS
THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE
UMPQUA BASIN. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PUSH AND
DISSIPATE THE MARINE STRATUS AND FOG BACK INTO THE OCEAN MID TO
LATE MORNING MONDAY RESULTING IN VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE
WILDFIRE SMOKE, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PUSH THE
IFR SMOKE WEST OF THE SHASTA AND SCOTT VALLEYS MONDAY, THOUGH SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR. VFR WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SPILDE/BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS, HIGHER WIND
WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH AND
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM
        THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
        PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
        WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/15






000
FXUS66 KMFR 250859
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
159 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SET UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS
OF THE EAST SIDE LAST EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A QUICKER WARM UP
WITH INCREASED TEMPS ALOFT AS THE LOW DRAGS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT
WITH IT. AS HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE THE REGION THE THERMAL TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INTENSIFYING. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS SUPPORTED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY
ADIABAT FROM THE 700 MB TEMP TO THE SURFACE...WHICH INDICATE YET
ANOTHER DAY TO ADD TO THE "DAYS ABOVE 100 DEGREES" LIST FOR THIS
SUMMER IN MEDFORD. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POORER RIDGE RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND INCREASE FIRE BEHAVIOR ON
REMAINING FIRES AS WELL. ANOTHER WEAK MARINE PUSH COMES IN THE
WEST SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE
TROUGH FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL COOLING AS
THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS REPLACED BY THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPVALLEY FLOW
PATTERN. IN THE FRIDAY/ SATURDAY TIME FRAME THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
VERY SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWING
A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. AM
THINKING THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
TRACKING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE VERY SIMILARLY TO THE
GFS...IT DOES NOT DRAW THE MOISTURE FROM THIS INTO THE COLD FRONT
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS IN
MIND AM LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS WETTER SOLUTION...BUT AM KEEPING
THE POPS AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THIS AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL
NOT HIGH.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...
IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS
NORTHERN CURRY...NORTHWESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTIES AND INTO PORTIONS
OF THE UMPQUA BASIN TO NEAR ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PUSH AND DISSIPATE THE MARINE STRATUS AND
FOG BACK INTO THE OCEAN MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY RESULTING IN VFR
FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE WILDFIRE SMOKE, NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PUSH THE IFR SMOKE WEST OF THE SHASTA AND SCOTT
VALLEYS MONDAY, THOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STILL
OCCUR. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, HIGHER WIND WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY, WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

SVEN







000
FXUS66 KMFR 250859
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
159 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SET UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE EXITING
UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PORTIONS
OF THE EAST SIDE LAST EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A QUICKER WARM UP
WITH INCREASED TEMPS ALOFT AS THE LOW DRAGS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT
WITH IT. AS HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE THE REGION THE THERMAL TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE COAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INTENSIFYING. WITH THIS
PATTERN HAVE GONE WITH TEMPS SUPPORTED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY
ADIABAT FROM THE 700 MB TEMP TO THE SURFACE...WHICH INDICATE YET
ANOTHER DAY TO ADD TO THE "DAYS ABOVE 100 DEGREES" LIST FOR THIS
SUMMER IN MEDFORD. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POORER RIDGE RH
RECOVERIES ACROSS THE REGION...AND INCREASE FIRE BEHAVIOR ON
REMAINING FIRES AS WELL. ANOTHER WEAK MARINE PUSH COMES IN THE
WEST SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. THE
TROUGH FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL COOLING AS
THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS REPLACED BY THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPVALLEY FLOW
PATTERN. IN THE FRIDAY/ SATURDAY TIME FRAME THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
VERY SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWING
A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. AM
THINKING THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
TRACKING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE VERY SIMILARLY TO THE
GFS...IT DOES NOT DRAW THE MOISTURE FROM THIS INTO THE COLD FRONT
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS IN
MIND AM LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS WETTER SOLUTION...BUT AM KEEPING
THE POPS AT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THIS AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL
NOT HIGH.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 25/06Z TAF CYCLE...
IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS
NORTHERN CURRY...NORTHWESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTIES AND INTO PORTIONS
OF THE UMPQUA BASIN TO NEAR ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO PUSH AND DISSIPATE THE MARINE STRATUS AND
FOG BACK INTO THE OCEAN MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY RESULTING IN VFR
FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE WILDFIRE SMOKE, NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PUSH THE IFR SMOKE WEST OF THE SHASTA AND SCOTT
VALLEYS MONDAY, THOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STILL
OCCUR. VFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MON 25 AUG 2014...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, HIGHER WIND WAVES WILL PUSH SEAS TO 10 FEET OR HIGHER SOUTH OF
GOLD BEACH AND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. BEYOND TUESDAY, WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY CALM AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE COASTAL AREA RELAX. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
     PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

SVEN








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