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000
FXUS66 KMFR 310020
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH. FURTHER
EAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY. FURTHER NORTH IN
OREGON, EXPECT MAINLY JUST CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST FOR THESE STORMS. ALSO EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR DRY AND UNSTABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL DOUGLASCOUNTY
TO INCLUDE THE STOUT FIRE 11 MILES EAST OF CANYONVILLE.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...TWO WILDFIRES ARE NOW
BURNING IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS INCREASED DURING PEAK
HEATING SO VISIBILITY IS CURRENTLY AT 6 MILES. STILL EXPECTING HAZE
AND SMOKE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  KOTH WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS, SO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  ALSO OF NOTE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING IN SISKIYOU COUNTY, YET NOT EXPECTING THEM TO PUSH PAST THE
OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. -CZS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
THE COAST AND INLAND. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SHOW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE IS, THE
STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AS THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT
THE CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLOUD.

ON SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS GREATEST FROM THE
CASCADES EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE 90S. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB


MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT FOR WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. -CZS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ619>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 310020
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
520 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH. FURTHER
EAST, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN EASTERN SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTY. FURTHER NORTH IN
OREGON, EXPECT MAINLY JUST CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST FOR THESE STORMS. ALSO EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR DRY AND UNSTABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL DOUGLASCOUNTY
TO INCLUDE THE STOUT FIRE 11 MILES EAST OF CANYONVILLE.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 31/00Z TAF CYCLE...TWO WILDFIRES ARE NOW
BURNING IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS INCREASED DURING PEAK
HEATING SO VISIBILITY IS CURRENTLY AT 6 MILES. STILL EXPECTING HAZE
AND SMOKE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  KOTH WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS, SO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  ALSO OF NOTE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING IN SISKIYOU COUNTY, YET NOT EXPECTING THEM TO PUSH PAST THE
OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. -CZS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
THE COAST AND INLAND. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SHOW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE IS, THE
STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AS THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT
THE CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLOUD.

ON SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS GREATEST FROM THE
CASCADES EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE 90S. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB


MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT FOR WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. -CZS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ619>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 310012
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
512 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
THE COAST AND INLAND. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SHOW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE IS, THE
STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AS THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT
THE CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLOUD.

ON SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS GREATEST FROM THE
CASCADES EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE 90S. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...TWO WILDFIRES ARE NOW
BURNING IN DOUGLAS COUNTY, ALTHOUGH MIXING HAS INCREASED DURING PEAK
HEATING SO VISIBILITY IS CURRENTLY AT 6 MILES. STILL EXPECTING HAZE
AND SMOKE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  KOTH WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT WITH WEAK ONSHORE WINDS, SO IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  ALSO OF NOTE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING IN SISKIYOU COUNTY, YET NOT EXPECTING THEM TO PUSH PAST THE
OREGON CALIFORNIA BORDER. -CZS

MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT FOR WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. -CZS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ619>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302207
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
THE COAST AND INLAND. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SHOW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE IS, THE
STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AS THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT
THE CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLOUD.

ON SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS GREATEST FROM THE
CASCADES EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE 90S. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IS IMPACTING THE KRBG TERMINAL.
VISIBILITY MAY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL WINDS INCREASE AND
DEPENDING ON FIRE BEHAVIOR, VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TO IFR. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES IS ALSO
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT
AFFECTING ANY OTHER TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MARINE LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. INLAND,
ASIDE FROM SMOKY CONDITIONS, VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. -MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT FOR WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. -CZS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ619>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 302207
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
THE COAST AND INLAND. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SHOW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE IS, THE
STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AS THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT
THE CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLOUD.

ON SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS GREATEST FROM THE
CASCADES EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE 90S. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IS IMPACTING THE KRBG TERMINAL.
VISIBILITY MAY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL WINDS INCREASE AND
DEPENDING ON FIRE BEHAVIOR, VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TO IFR. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES IS ALSO
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT
AFFECTING ANY OTHER TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MARINE LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. INLAND,
ASIDE FROM SMOKY CONDITIONS, VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. -MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT FOR WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. -CZS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ619>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 302207
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
THE COAST AND INLAND. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SHOW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE IS, THE
STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AS THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT
THE CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLOUD.

ON SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS GREATEST FROM THE
CASCADES EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE 90S. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IS IMPACTING THE KRBG TERMINAL.
VISIBILITY MAY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL WINDS INCREASE AND
DEPENDING ON FIRE BEHAVIOR, VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TO IFR. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES IS ALSO
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT
AFFECTING ANY OTHER TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MARINE LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. INLAND,
ASIDE FROM SMOKY CONDITIONS, VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. -MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT FOR WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. -CZS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ619>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 302207
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
THE COAST AND INLAND. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOST OF FRIDAY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MAINLY CUMULUS BUILDUP. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY FOR MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 SHOW SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THIS SHORT WAVE IS, THE
STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AS THERE IS ALSO MID LEVEL CAP THAT COULD PREVENT
THE CLOUDS FROM BUILDING INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLOUD.

ON SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE LOOKS GREATEST FROM THE
CASCADES EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE SW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL HELP BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY DOWN INTO THE 90S. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FORECAST AREA. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/18Z TAF CYCLE...WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND IS IMPACTING THE KRBG TERMINAL.
VISIBILITY MAY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL WINDS INCREASE AND
DEPENDING ON FIRE BEHAVIOR, VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TO IFR. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA FIRES IS ALSO
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT
AFFECTING ANY OTHER TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MARINE LAYER
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. INLAND,
ASIDE FROM SMOKY CONDITIONS, VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. -MND

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL CREATE SMALL
CRAFT FOR WAVES IN THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY EVENING SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. -CZS

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ619>623.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 301617
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS FOR MEDFORD AT 109. THIS MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO TOO HIGH GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUN BUT EVEN THE
NEW NUMBERS ARE IN THE 105-110 RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS SPREADING NORTH TO NEAR POINT ST
GEORGE CALIFORNIA.

OUR NEXT CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF OF SISKIYOU COUNTY
FRIDAY, BUT BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS20 ARE BRINGING A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY EVENING THEN TAKING
THIS SHORT WAVE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD HAVING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WILL CLEAR BY MID-MORNING. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.  MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...VERY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER
GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY IS
LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY WILL FEATURE
VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  ANY LIGHTNING
THAT OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS
WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE COAST,
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND NOW THERE IS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS HAS
ALLOWED BROOKINGS TO COOL DOWN TO 64 DEGREES. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105-110 FOR MANY WEST SIDE
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL ALSO END
UP HIGHER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND AS A RESULT AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL END UP
MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THUS WE`LL CANCEL
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT AGAIN TODAY. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY IF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, BUT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 33N/133W. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR 500MB (MID
LEVEL MOISTURE). THEREFORE WERE ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN CAL. ITS POSSIBLE CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND JUST EAST
OF MOUNT SHASTA.

THE NAM SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO SHORTWAVES. IN
ADDITION ITS NOT LOOKING AS UNSTABLE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
CASCADES AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. EVEN THEN ITS MOSTLY
A RESULT OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT 500 MB. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIOS HAVE REDUCED THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU COUNTY FOR
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES IN A RELATIVE SENSE COULD END UP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
HOT.

CONFIDENCE OF THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT, BUT THE MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH IF ANY TRIGGER AND THE BULK
OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED IS MOSTLY AROUND 500MB. HOWEVER
THEY SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY ON SUNDAY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE CASCADES.

BEYOND MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREAS
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HEAT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THE EC SHOWS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE AREA, A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 35N/130W AND A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 52N/140W. GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS, DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY
-PETRUCELLI



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JRS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300951
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE COAST,
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND NOW THERE IS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS HAS
ALLOWED BROOKINGS TO COOL DOWN TO 64 DEGREES. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105-110 FOR MANY WEST SIDE
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL ALSO END
UP HIGHER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND AS A RESULT AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL END UP
MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THUS WE`LL CANCEL
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT AGAIN TODAY. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY IF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, BUT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 33N/133W. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR 500MB (MID
LEVEL MOISTURE). THEREFORE WERE ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN CAL. ITS POSSIBLE CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND JUST EAST
OF MOUNT SHASTA.

THE NAM SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO SHORTWAVES. IN
ADDITION ITS NOT LOOKING AS UNSTABLE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
CASCADES AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. EVEN THEN ITS MOSTLY
A RESULT OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT 500 MB. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIOS HAVE REDUCED THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SIKSYOU COUNTY FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES IN A RELATIVE SENSE COULD END UP A FEW DEGREES
LOWER ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.

CONFIDENCE OF THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT, BUT THE MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH IF ANY TRIGGER AND THE BULK
OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED IS MOSTLY AROUND 500MB. HOWEVER
THEY SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY ON SUNDAY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE CASCADES.

BEYOND MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREAS
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HEAT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THE EC SHOWS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE AREA, A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 35N/130W AND A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 52N/140W. GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS, DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WILL CLEAR BY MID-MORNING. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.  MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...VERY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER
GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY IS
LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY WILL FEATURE
VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  ANY LIGHTNING
THAT OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS
WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ370-376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300951
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
251 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE COAST,
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND NOW THERE IS A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS HAS
ALLOWED BROOKINGS TO COOL DOWN TO 64 DEGREES. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105-110 FOR MANY WEST SIDE
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL ALSO END
UP HIGHER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND AS A RESULT AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL END UP
MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THUS WE`LL CANCEL
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT AGAIN TODAY. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS PLENTY IF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, BUT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL CAL AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 33N/133W. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR 500MB (MID
LEVEL MOISTURE). THEREFORE WERE ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN CAL. ITS POSSIBLE CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND JUST EAST
OF MOUNT SHASTA.

THE NAM SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CAL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE OR NO SHORTWAVES. IN
ADDITION ITS NOT LOOKING AS UNSTABLE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
CASCADES AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. EVEN THEN ITS MOSTLY
A RESULT OF HIGHER MOISTURE AT 500 MB. GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIOS HAVE REDUCED THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CASCADES, SISKIYOUS AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SIKSYOU COUNTY FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES IN A RELATIVE SENSE COULD END UP A FEW DEGREES
LOWER ON AVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT.

CONFIDENCE OF THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT, BUT THE MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH IF ANY TRIGGER AND THE BULK
OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED IS MOSTLY AROUND 500MB. HOWEVER
THEY SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MODOC COUNTY ON SUNDAY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE CASCADES.

BEYOND MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREAS
BRINGING A RELIEF TO THE HEAT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS EAST
OF THE CASCADES. THE EC SHOWS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE AREA, A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 35N/130W AND A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 52N/140W. GIVEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS, DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO WILL CLEAR BY MID-MORNING. AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TODAY...THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OF
CAPE BLANCO TONIGHT. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT
WILL MOVE INLAND. NORTH WINDS AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.  MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT THURSDAY 30 JULY 2015...VERY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER
GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A
COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY IS
LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY WILL FEATURE
VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND
MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  ANY LIGHTNING
THAT OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS
WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ370-376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300413
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
LATE TODAY. WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWN AND WILL BE LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT. THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT SOME CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN SOME AREAS.
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RIDGES MAY REMAIN BREEZY
THIS EVENING...THEN THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THAT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BY LATE TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE AREA. THEN EXPECT SLIGHT COOLING ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT AND FLOW
TURNS MORE ONSHORE WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS..LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. KRBG MAY SEE SOME SMOKE
FROM NEARBY FIRES LATER TONIGHT.
/SMITH

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/


SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300413
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
LATE TODAY. WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWN AND WILL BE LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT. THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT SOME CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND CASCADES TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN SOME AREAS.
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RIDGES MAY REMAIN BREEZY
THIS EVENING...THEN THE NAM MODEL SHOWS THAT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BY LATE TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE AREA. THEN EXPECT SLIGHT COOLING ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT AND FLOW
TURNS MORE ONSHORE WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS..LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. KRBG MAY SEE SOME SMOKE
FROM NEARBY FIRES LATER TONIGHT.
/SMITH

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/


SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300109
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
609 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHE ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT
AND FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS..LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. KRBG MAY SEE SOME
SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES LATER TONIGHT. /CZS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. /CZS

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 300109
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
609 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHE ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT
AND FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS..LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. KRBG MAY SEE SOME
SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES LATER TONIGHT. /CZS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. /CZS

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300109
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
609 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHE ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT
AND FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS..LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. KRBG MAY SEE SOME
SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES LATER TONIGHT. /CZS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. /CZS

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 300109
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
609 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHE ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 30/00Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT
AND FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS..LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. KRBG MAY SEE SOME
SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES LATER TONIGHT. /CZS

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. /CZS

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 292204
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHE ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT
AND FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE..LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. ELSEWHERE MVFR VIS WILL CONTINUE AT KRBG UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON AS SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRE DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. VIF
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR AGAIN
TONIGHT. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. /CZS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/FJB





000
FXUS66 KMFR 292204
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH HUMIDITY ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT DRIER.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAD SHIFTED INLAND WILL BE MOVING BACK TO
THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER
SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
CASCADES OVER THE KLAMATH AND TULELAKE BASINS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE CASCADES...WITH 105-110 RANGE FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND NEAR
95 FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY.
SO FAR MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH CLOUD BASE NEAR 500MB. A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND
THEN NW OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR THE AREA SHOWED THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT BUT THE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE WIDESPREAD. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ON SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS A BIT MORE. MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AT KMFR SHOWS HIGHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INCREASING TO 25-40 PERCENT FOR SAT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AREAL COVERAGE ENCOMPASSING SISKIYOU COUNTY...THE
ROGUE VALLEY AND THE KLAMATH BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ON SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXPANDS EAST INTO THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN AND MODOC COUNTY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY BEFORE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHE ROUND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHILE SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...THIS TROUGH COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO THE
90S. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/18Z TAF CYCLE...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT
AND FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE..LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
KOTH WITH MVFR VIS. ELSEWHERE MVFR VIS WILL CONTINUE AT KRBG UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON AS SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRE DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. VIF
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR AGAIN
TONIGHT. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE A MONSOONAL PUSH CONVERGING ONTO A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD CREATE MORE HAZARDS IN THE OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. /CZS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HAINES 6 DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AFFECTING SOME INLAND AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CABLE CROSSING FIRE. POOR TO
MODERATE RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
LOWER OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER GRADUALLY SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING AIR MASS. THUS...HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH AN IMPULSE
THAT IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR FRIDAY IS LOW. THAT SAID...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM FRIDAY
WILL FEATURE VERY LITTLE RAIN WITH THEM. BETTER TRIGGERS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...EXIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WE ARE VERY COGNIZANT OF THE FACT THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF
EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS WILL BE ENHANCED.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ616.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/FJB




000
FXUS66 KMFR 291610
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY IS THE START OF THE MULTI-DAY HEAT EVENT AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. AT THE COAST THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT THE MORNING LOW AT
BROOKINGS WAS 86. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AT BROOKINGS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 100.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS COMING
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
OUR INITIAL THOUGHT IS THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN MOVES THE MOISTURE
OFFSHORE JUST AS IT WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE JUST ISOLATED IN
NATURE AT THIS POINT FOR FRIDAY. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP OF 25 TO 30 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH GRADIENT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A
STRONG SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT
LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS
COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE CASCADES. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2 PM
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN
THAT AREA...UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AND LAST HOURS BROOKINGS WAS STILL 87 DEGREES AFTER
REACHING A HIGH OF 101 TUESDAY. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
GET INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL CONTINUE AND
BROOKINGS COULD FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK OUT FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND THE SOUTH COAST FROM
GOLD BEACH TO BROOKINGS SHOULD END UP MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THEY ALL SHOW A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST
DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A
TRIGGER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE WEST
OF THE CASCADES.

BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE FRIDAY, THEN CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T
SHOW MUCH IF ANY TRIGGER AND THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/JRS/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 291610
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
910 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY IS THE START OF THE MULTI-DAY HEAT EVENT AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 FOR THE
ROGUE VALLEY. AT THE COAST THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT THE MORNING LOW AT
BROOKINGS WAS 86. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AT BROOKINGS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 100.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS COMING
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
OUR INITIAL THOUGHT IS THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM BUT THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUN MOVES THE MOISTURE
OFFSHORE JUST AS IT WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY BE JUST ISOLATED IN
NATURE AT THIS POINT FOR FRIDAY. /FB


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP OF 25 TO 30 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH GRADIENT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A
STRONG SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT
LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS
COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE CASCADES. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2 PM
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN
THAT AREA...UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AND LAST HOURS BROOKINGS WAS STILL 87 DEGREES AFTER
REACHING A HIGH OF 101 TUESDAY. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
GET INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL CONTINUE AND
BROOKINGS COULD FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK OUT FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND THE SOUTH COAST FROM
GOLD BEACH TO BROOKINGS SHOULD END UP MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THEY ALL SHOW A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST
DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A
TRIGGER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE WEST
OF THE CASCADES.

BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE FRIDAY, THEN CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T
SHOW MUCH IF ANY TRIGGER AND THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/JRS/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290949
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
249 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AND LAST HOURS BROOKINGS WAS STILL 87 DEGREES AFTER
REACHING A HIGH OF 101 TUESDAY. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
GET INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL CONTINUE AND
BROOKINGS COULD FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK OUT FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND THE SOUTH COAST FROM
GOLD BEACH TO BROOKINGS SHOULD END UP MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THEY ALL SHOW A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST
DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A
TRIGGER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE WEST
OF THE CASCADES.

BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE FRIDAY, THEN CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T
SHOW MUCH IF ANY TRIGGER AND THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP OF 25 TO 30 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH GRADIENT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A
STRONG SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT
LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS
COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE CASCADES. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2 PM
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN
THAT AREA...UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290949
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
249 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AND LAST HOURS BROOKINGS WAS STILL 87 DEGREES AFTER
REACHING A HIGH OF 101 TUESDAY. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY
GET INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL CONTINUE AND
BROOKINGS COULD FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PEAK OUT FOR WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND THE SOUTH COAST FROM
GOLD BEACH TO BROOKINGS SHOULD END UP MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THEY ALL SHOW A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST
DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A
TRIGGER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE WEST
OF THE CASCADES.

BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE FRIDAY, THEN CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T
SHOW MUCH IF ANY TRIGGER AND THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP OF 25 TO 30 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH GRADIENT REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT WEDNESDAY 29 JULY 2015...A
STRONG SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TRENDS GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT
LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS
COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE CASCADES. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2 PM
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN
THAT AREA...UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 290348
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE OF THE EASTERLY WINDS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S. ALSO A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CURRY COAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 90S THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 290348
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE OF THE EASTERLY WINDS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S. ALSO A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CURRY COAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 90S THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290348
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE OF THE EASTERLY WINDS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S. ALSO A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CURRY COAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 90S THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC





000
FXUS66 KMFR 290348
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
848 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING STRONG AND GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECREASE OF THE EASTERLY WINDS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S. ALSO A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CURRY COAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE CASCADES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 90S THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SMITH

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /SMITH

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 290058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SMITH

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /SMITH

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 290058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SMITH

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /SMITH

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 290058
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
558 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE WINDS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...  LOOK FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /SMITH

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /SMITH

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/NSK/CZS




000
FXUS66 KMFR 282141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CASCADES WEST WILL CREATE SOME
TURBULENCE THERE.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /SMITH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 282141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CASCADES WEST WILL CREATE SOME
TURBULENCE THERE.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /SMITH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 282141
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
241 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
EXPECT A WARM NIGHT FOR THE BROOKINGS AREA WITH WEDNESDAY`S HIGH
IN THE MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE
105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY AND WE SAY MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE SPREADS INTO OUR AREA BUT ANY STORM THAT FORMS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. /FB

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY). DURING THIS PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND. HOW STRONG
THESE STORMS ARE DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PINPOINTING THIS FAR OUT. AS A
RESULT WE HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE UNSTABLE AREA FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM BUT MAY BE MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
TONIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CASCADES WEST WILL CREATE SOME
TURBULENCE THERE.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.  REDUCED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BUOY
15 WAS REPORTING WEAKER WINDS.  STILL EXPECTING GALES AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. /SMITH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE SURFACING IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA IS EXPANDING TO
COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. FORECAST TRENDS
GENERALLY SHOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THROUGH 2PM WEDNESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES IN THAT AREA...BEFORE WINDS
WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF IMPULSE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOTE THAT ANY LIGHTNING THAT OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK OR
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ACCOMPANYING OR FOLLOWING AN EXTREMELY HOT AND
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...AND THUS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 281620
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY WARM NIGHT SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN. WESTERN
KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY ARE SOME OF THE AREAS
THAT COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 100 TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS
WILL USHER IN SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.

CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS TREND SO WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
THIS MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE CONCERN SHIFTS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE
CREEPS NORTH INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AROUND FRIDAY. A QUICK LOOK AT
THE MOISTURE FIELD SHOWS LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS BEING MORE FAVORABLE. WE WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN IN
THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE...GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. GUSTY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS PROBLEM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH COASTAL RANGE (ZONES
618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE
280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD.

STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO THROUGH THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PHENOMENON.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FARTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA WILL EXPAND TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL, BUT
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS NOW EXITING THE
REGION. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS PLACE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH
BROOKINGS REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ALSO GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES. THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND BROOKINGS WILL EASILY GET INTO THE MID 90S AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 90S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY GET INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK OUT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
TRIGGER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD END UP BEING ON FRIDAY. IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT
THERE AND THE DETAILS ON THIS COULD CHANGE, SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.

CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T SHOW MUCH IF ANY
TRIGGER AND THEY DIFFERENT SLIGHTLY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE EC
SHOWS A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES, IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP AT ALL.
-PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE...GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. GUSTY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS PROBLEM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH COASTAL RANGE (ZONES
618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE
280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD.

STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO THROUGH THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PHENOMENON.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FARTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA WILL EXPAND TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ026.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK




000
FXUS66 KMFR 281620
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
920 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST UP TO AROUND CAPE BLANCO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT BROOKINGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A VERY WARM NIGHT SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN. WESTERN
KLAMATH RIVER VALLEY AND THE ILLINOIS VALLEY ARE SOME OF THE AREAS
THAT COULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 100 TODAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THIS
WILL USHER IN SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 105-110 RANGE FOR VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.

CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS TREND SO WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
THIS MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE CONCERN SHIFTS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE
CREEPS NORTH INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY AROUND FRIDAY. A QUICK LOOK AT
THE MOISTURE FIELD SHOWS LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS BEING MORE FAVORABLE. WE WILL ADDRESS THIS CONCERN IN
THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE...GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. GUSTY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS PROBLEM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH COASTAL RANGE (ZONES
618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE
280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD.

STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO THROUGH THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PHENOMENON.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FARTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA WILL EXPAND TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL, BUT
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS NOW EXITING THE
REGION. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS PLACE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH
BROOKINGS REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ALSO GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES. THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND BROOKINGS WILL EASILY GET INTO THE MID 90S AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 90S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY GET INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK OUT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
TRIGGER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD END UP BEING ON FRIDAY. IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT
THERE AND THE DETAILS ON THIS COULD CHANGE, SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.

CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T SHOW MUCH IF ANY
TRIGGER AND THEY DIFFERENT SLIGHTLY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE EC
SHOWS A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES, IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP AT ALL.
-PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE...GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. GUSTY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS PROBLEM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH COASTAL RANGE (ZONES
618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE
280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD.

STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO THROUGH THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PHENOMENON.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FARTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA WILL EXPAND TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ026.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/NSK





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280943
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL, BUT
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS NOW EXITING THE
REGION. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS PLACE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH
BROOKINGS REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ALSO GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES. THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND BROOKINGS WILL EASILY GET INTO THE MID 90S AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 90S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY GET INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK OUT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
TRIGGER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD END UP BEING ON FRIDAY. IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT
THERE AND THE DETAILS ON THIS COULD CHANGE, SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.

CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T SHOW MUCH IF ANY
TRIGGER AND THEY DIFFERENT SLIGHTLY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE EC
SHOWS A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES, IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP AT ALL.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE...GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. GUSTY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS PROBLEM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH COASTAL RANGE (ZONES
618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE
280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD.

STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO THROUGH THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PHENOMENON.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FARTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA WILL EXPAND TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ026.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280943
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
243 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL, BUT
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS NOW EXITING THE
REGION. A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS PLACE TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND COAST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH
BROOKINGS REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND ALSO GUSTY WINDS OVER THE RIDGES. THE CHETCO EFFECT WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND BROOKINGS WILL EASILY GET INTO THE MID 90S AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 90S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY GET INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE WILL BE THE DAYS WHERE WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK OUT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL CAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
TRIGGER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON CURRENT DATA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD END UP BEING ON FRIDAY. IT`S STILL A WAYS OUT
THERE AND THE DETAILS ON THIS COULD CHANGE, SO STAY TUNED FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.

CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT, BUT THE GFS OR EC DON`T SHOW MUCH IF ANY
TRIGGER AND THEY DIFFERENT SLIGHTLY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE EC
SHOWS A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES, IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP AT ALL.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE...GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. GUSTY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH WINDS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL MOVE
INLAND. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY WIND-DRIVEN SEAS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT TUESDAY 28 JULY 2015...A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH RECOVERIES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS PROBLEM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH COASTAL RANGE (ZONES
618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE
280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD.

STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO THROUGH THE DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS PHENOMENON.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FARTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
RED FLAG WARNING AREA WILL EXPAND TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ618>620.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ORZ621>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ026.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280428
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE4 COAST...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION SKIES ARE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES...WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGH IMPACT HEAT EVENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WEST...BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
ESSENTIALLY...THIS MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF HEAT OCCURS ONCE EVERY
5 YEARS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO ON
THE FORTHCOMING HEAT...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS HAVE EVEN TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER FOR
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT NPWMFR
FOR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND MOST VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
FOR SATURDAY CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER ON WHETHER VERY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BECAUSE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT MAY
DIFFERENTIATE THIS HEAT EVENT COMPARED TO THE ONE IN EARLY JULY IS
THE DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ENSURE CLEAR SKIES AND
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOME COOLING AT NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
60S MOST NIGHTS. EVEN SO...IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TO THOSE
THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT...EXERTING THEMSELVES DURING THE
DAY...OR EXPOSED TO HEAT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS...WE ARE FORECASTING 106 DEGREES FOR THREE
DAYS IN A ROW...AND THIS HAS ONLY OCCURRED IN MEDFORD 8 TIMES IN THE
PAST 104 YEARS.

MEANWHILE...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE CURRY COUNTY COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROMPTING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. THIS THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW HIGHLIGHTS THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME ON THE COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...AND AFTER THE HOTTEST INLAND DAY
LIKELY ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AT INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. I`LL EMPHASIZE THE WORD "GRADUAL" BECAUSE AIR MASS
TEMPERATURES COOL VERY SUBTLY SATURDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY...AND MORE SO ON
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
DYNAMICS PER THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH BEND
AREA 12-16Z, BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS. OTHERWISE, GUSTY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TO
THE LEE OF THEM, GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. ALSO, GUSTY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY JULY 27, 2015... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STRONGER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE A THERMAL
TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MAINLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS BEYOND 10 NAUTICAL MILES
OF THE COAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY 27 JULY...A STRONG SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS TO THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH
RECOVERIES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING..CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
THAT THIS PROBLEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH
COASTAL RANGE (ZONES 618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE 280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD. AS A
RESULT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING.

OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ASPECT.

THE  OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FURTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED
FLAG WARNING AREA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CURRY MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND FOR THE SISKIYOUS, CASCADES AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN
JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN
ZONES 618, 619 AND 280 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS HUMIDITIES
LOWER AND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY RIDGES. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH
AND OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ON THE
RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ618-619.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ620>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ026.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/FJB/BTL




000
FXUS66 KMFR 280428
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
925 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE4 COAST...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION SKIES ARE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES...WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS EVENING. SVEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A HIGH IMPACT HEAT EVENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WEST...BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
ESSENTIALLY...THIS MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF HEAT OCCURS ONCE EVERY
5 YEARS.

MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO ON
THE FORTHCOMING HEAT...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS HAVE EVEN TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER FOR
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES...AND WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT NPWMFR
FOR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND MOST VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
FOR SATURDAY CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER ON WHETHER VERY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BECAUSE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT MAY
DIFFERENTIATE THIS HEAT EVENT COMPARED TO THE ONE IN EARLY JULY IS
THE DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL ENSURE CLEAR SKIES AND
MAXIMUM POTENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOME COOLING AT NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
60S MOST NIGHTS. EVEN SO...IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TO THOSE
THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT...EXERTING THEMSELVES DURING THE
DAY...OR EXPOSED TO HEAT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS...WE ARE FORECASTING 106 DEGREES FOR THREE
DAYS IN A ROW...AND THIS HAS ONLY OCCURRED IN MEDFORD 8 TIMES IN THE
PAST 104 YEARS.

MEANWHILE...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE CURRY COUNTY COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROMPTING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. THIS THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW HIGHLIGHTS THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME ON THE COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...AND AFTER THE HOTTEST INLAND DAY
LIKELY ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AT INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS. I`LL EMPHASIZE THE WORD "GRADUAL" BECAUSE AIR MASS
TEMPERATURES COOL VERY SUBTLY SATURDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY...AND MORE SO ON
SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
DYNAMICS PER THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH BEND
AREA 12-16Z, BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS. OTHERWISE, GUSTY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE TO
THE LEE OF THEM, GREATEST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON PDT. ALSO, GUSTY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY JULY 27, 2015... HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STRONGER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE A THERMAL
TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BRING STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MAINLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS BEYOND 10 NAUTICAL MILES
OF THE COAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF WEEKEND. BTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 PM PDT MONDAY 27 JULY...A STRONG SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS TO THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES ALONG WITH POOR TO MODERATE RH
RECOVERIES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING..CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
THAT THIS PROBLEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY CURRY COUNTY AND THE SOUTH
COASTAL RANGE (ZONES 618/619/620) AND THE UPPER SLOPES OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY (ZONE 280) FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAIN WESTWARD. AS A
RESULT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING.

OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD SURFACE INTO THE
ILLINOIS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE RED FLAG
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ASPECT.

THE  OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS
EXPANDING FURTHER INLAND. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RED
FLAG WARNING AREA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER JACKSON COUNTY AND THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. TUESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CASCADES AND THE SISKIYOUS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE UMPQUA
PORTION OF THE CASCADES AS WELL ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS THERE ARE
NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GAPS THROUGH THE
CASCADES.

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CURRY MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND FOR THE SISKIYOUS, CASCADES AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS IN
JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN
ZONES 618, 619 AND 280 TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS HUMIDITIES
LOWER AND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL AND
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY RIDGES. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH
AND OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ON THE
RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND WEDNESDAY...AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONSET HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A DAY AS MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO HIGH BASED ON THURSDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ618-619.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ022.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ021-023.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ617.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ620>623.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ026.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     ORZ024.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
  EVENING FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/FJB/BTL





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