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000
FXUS66 KMFR 291122
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
422 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA THIS MORNING THEN A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FIRST AND FOREMOST...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL BE STRONGEST ON THE EAST SIDE. GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE BUT 40 MPH AT RIDGES AND
ON THE EAST SIDE. IT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EAST SIDE. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE SUCH THAT THE AREA WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LIMITED SOUTHERN LAKE AND EASTERN MODOC COUNTIES. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND A STRONG RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING FOR BROOKINGS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRONG WARMING TREND INLAND INTO SUNDAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
FORESHADOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD TROUGH OFFSHORE CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT OFF. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE MAIN LOW
MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE 00Z GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
TOWARD MORE COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF WITH INSTABILITY
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL
BLEND AND RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE NAM...ECMWF AND
GFS EACH GENERATE PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH LOOKING AT THE
DETAILS...I WILL ECHO THE EARLIER SHIFT`S COMMENTS THAT THE AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHEST FOR
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN OREGON SISKIYOUS AND
CASCADES.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND LIKELY REACH A PEAK ON WEDNESDAY.

DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL. THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL NOT PRODUCE
MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...YET ANOTHER DAY WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED BY DAY BREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
OVER THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE WHERE
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 307 AM PDT FRI 29 APR 2016...NORTHWEST WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL EASE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH A THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS AND HIGH, VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. /CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

DW/CC/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 290350
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WE
LOSE SURFACE HEATING WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THE LATEST
NAM12 IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN AT BRINGING A
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO PULL A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. PER THE LATEST NAM12 AND THE GFS20 THE AREA OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN HALF OF
MODOC COUNTY ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE EAST SIDE WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED WIND IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH AT
BOTH KINGSLEY FIELD...LAKEVIEW...ALTURAS AND MONTAGUE
AIRPORTS...AND AROUND 15 MPH IN MEDFORD. WE MAY NEED TO ADDRESS
THIS ISSUE TONIGHT. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL INLAND
SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
OVER THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT THU 28 APR 2016...NORTHWEST WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL EASE FROM NORTH OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD RAPIDLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
AND HIGH, VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...28/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOWS AROUND THE
GLOBE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BLOCKING DEVELOPING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND A WEAK RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST AT THIS TIME OVER THE UMPQUA
BASIN...BUT THOSE WILL END SOON.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE
DOWN THROUGH OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN INDICATED BY THE
MODELS YESTERDAY. THIS SUPPORTS A BIT MORE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST
OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. HOWEVER...MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE STILL NOT
BULLISH ON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP
AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES ON
THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

ALL OF THE MODELS BACK A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WAVE WITH SUCH A TRAJECTORY AFTER
AN OFFSHORE EVENT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND THE TIME SECTIONS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
BELOW AROUND 12000 FEET. LIFTED INDICES ARE ALSO MARGINAL...DROPPING
JUST BELOW ZERO OVER A FEW EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...WILL
GO WITH GHOST POPS AND NOT MENTION ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND JUST AFTER OFFSHORE
FLOW REACHES A PEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS. STOCKTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF
ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF COVERAGE AND THE CANADIAN SHOWS NOTHING. IN A
NUTSHELL, MONDAY COULD BE A TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREAT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S
EXTENDED DISCUSSION, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT ONE THAT WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO SUSPECT THE QPF FIELDS (ESPECIALLY
FROM THE GFS) MAY BE OVERDONE. NOTE: THE EC HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THE QPF FIELDS FROM YESTERDAYS AND LAST
NIGHTS RUN. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THERE IS LITTLE
OR NO TRIGGER. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED AHEAD OF IT, THUS PROVIDING A
STRONGER TRIGGER. IN ADDITION INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE GREATER.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW
AND RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE
DETAILS DIFFER, THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL INLAND
SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
OVER THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT THU 28 APR 2016...NORTHWEST WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL EASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH, VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/MAP/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 290016
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
516 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...28/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOWS AROUND THE
GLOBE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BLOCKING DEVELOPING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND A WEAK RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST AT THIS TIME OVER THE UMPQUA
BASIN...BUT THOSE WILL END SOON.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE
DOWN THROUGH OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN INDICATED BY THE
MODELS YESTERDAY. THIS SUPPORTS A BIT MORE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST
OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. HOWEVER...MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE STILL NOT
BULLISH ON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP
AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES ON
THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

ALL OF THE MODELS BACK A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WAVE WITH SUCH A TRAJECTORY AFTER
AN OFFSHORE EVENT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND THE TIME SECTIONS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
BELOW AROUND 12000 FEET. LIFTED INDICES ARE ALSO MARGINAL...DROPPING
JUST BELOW ZERO OVER A FEW EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...WILL
GO WITH GHOST POPS AND NOT MENTION ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND JUST AFTER OFFSHORE
FLOW REACHES A PEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS. STOCKTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF
ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF COVERAGE AND THE CANADIAN SHOWS NOTHING. IN A
NUTSHELL, MONDAY COULD BE A TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREAT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S
EXTENDED DISCUSSION, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT ONE THAT WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO SUSPECT THE QPF FIELDS (ESPECIALLY
FROM THE GFS) MAY BE OVERDONE. NOTE: THE EC HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THE QPF FIELDS FROM YESTERDAYS AND LAST
NIGHTS RUN. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THERE IS LITTLE
OR NO TRIGGER. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED AHEAD OF IT, THUS PROVIDING A
STRONGER TRIGGER. IN ADDITION INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE GREATER.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW
AND RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE
DETAILS DIFFER, THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR WILL PREVAIL INLAND
SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE UMPQUA VALLEY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
OVER THE EAST SIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT THU 28 APR 2016...NORTHWEST WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL EASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A THERMAL TROUGH
SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH, VERY STEEP SEAS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

MAS/JRS/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 282005
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
105 PM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...28/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOWS AROUND THE
GLOBE...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
BLOCKING DEVELOPING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND A WEAK RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST AT THIS TIME OVER THE UMPQUA
BASIN...BUT THOSE WILL END SOON.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE
DOWN THROUGH OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN INDICATED BY THE
MODELS YESTERDAY. THIS SUPPORTS A BIT MORE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST
OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. HOWEVER...MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE STILL NOT
BULLISH ON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP
AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES ON
THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

ALL OF THE MODELS BACK A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WAVE WITH SUCH A TRAJECTORY AFTER
AN OFFSHORE EVENT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND THE TIME SECTIONS INDICATE IT WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
BELOW AROUND 12000 FEET. LIFTED INDICES ARE ALSO MARGINAL...DROPPING
JUST BELOW ZERO OVER A FEW EAST SIDE LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...WILL
GO WITH GHOST POPS AND NOT MENTION ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND JUST AFTER OFFSHORE
FLOW REACHES A PEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF
ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF COVERAGE AND THE CANADIAN SHOWS NOTHING. IN A
NUTSHELL, MONDAY COULD BE A TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
AND THUNDERSTORMS THREAT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY`S
EXTENDED DISCUSSION, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT ONE THAT WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO SUSPECT THE QPF FIELDS (ESPECIALLY
FROM THE GFS) MAY BE OVERDONE. NOTE: THE EC HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF THE QPF FIELDS FROM YESTERDAYS AND LAST
NIGHTS RUN. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND THERE IS LITTLE
OR NO TRIGGER. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED AHEAD OF IT, THUS PROVIDING A
STRONGER TRIGGER. IN ADDITION INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE GREATER.
THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW
AND RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE
DETAILS DIFFER, THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST INTO THIS EVENING. IT`S
POSSIBLE CIGS COULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND HAVE INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF, BUT THE DURATION COULD BE
LESS THAN WHATS INDICATED. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AT
THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. INLAND...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN INCLUDING
ROSEBURG WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 510 AM PDT THU 28 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, MAINLY FROM GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON THE COAST FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALES SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH SATURDAY.
/SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
        PZZ350-370.

$$

15/10/18





000
FXUS66 KMFR 281520
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
820 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...28/12Z NAM IN.

ITS A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
MORNING AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOWS AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BLOCKING
DEVELOPING IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CURRENTLY THERE IS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND A WEAK RIDGE OFFSHORE. THERE
ARE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN
THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE SHOULD END SOON AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES. THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE DRY AND A BIT WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE
DOWN THROUGH OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TRAJECTORY IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN INDICATED BY THE
MODELS YESTERDAY. THIS SUPPORTS A BIT MORE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST
OVER THE MEDFORD CWA. HOWEVER...MODEL LIFTED INDICES ARE STILL NOT
BULLISH ON CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE TRENDING HIGHER AND
FARTHER WEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP
AN OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES ON
THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

THE EC BACKS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WAVE WITH SUCH A TRAJECTORY AFTER AN
OFFSHORE EVENT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY DROP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOWEVER...SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND JUST AFTER OFFSHORE
FLOW REACHES A PEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN IT WILL REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.

IT WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE SUNDAY HIGHS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ALONG THE
COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EDGE INTO THE WEST COAST
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BRING
IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CEILINGS ARE AT COAST
AND COASTAL WATERS AND WEST OF THE CASCADES NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY VERY LATE MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATIONS
TONIGHT. /SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 510 AM PDT THU 28 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, MAINLY FROM GOLD BEACH
SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON THE COAST FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING GALES SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH SATURDAY.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY
        FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
        PZZ350-370.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280954
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
254 AM PDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, VERY LITTLE IS LIKELY
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OTHER THAN VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATER THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.

UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE, A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE
SOUTH, AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH INLAND OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY NUDGE THE THERMAL TROUGH BACK DOWN INTO
CALIFORNIA, AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY ALONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES, AS THIS WOULD BE THE
PREVAILING DIRECTION OF UPSLOPING FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO
SHOWING SOME AREAS OF INSTABILITY EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY, SO SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE BACK NORTH, AND OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
SUNDAY, WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES NORTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW REACHES A PEAK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
TO VALUES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH 80S BEING A COMMON
SIGHT WEST OF THE CASCADES, EVEN DOWN TO THE COASTLINE.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE COAST...WHICH WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY WHEN THE ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A STEADY BUT GRADUAL
COOL-DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE PACIFIC AND SHIFTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE, THE MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTION BREAKING OUT EAST OF THE
CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOONS, MAINLY AS A RESULT OF A SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE PUSH AND RESULTING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO SUSPECT THIS
MAY BE OVERDONE. AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH, AND ANY SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW, THERE REMAINS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION AT SLIGHT TO CHANCE, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THROUGH THE END OF THE
TERM.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THIS EVENINGS RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BOTH KOTH AND KRBG WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ABOUT THE MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINAL BUT WE COULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRFIELD. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING ALL AREAS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KOTH THIS
AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, MAINLY
FROM CAPE ARAGO SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. BY LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
TAPER TO AROUND 20 KNOTS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT AREAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP
SOUTH OF CAPE SEBASTIAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH BL WINDS
APPROACHING OF 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-370.

$$

BPN/FJB





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280452
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
952 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...ONLY THE MARINE SECTION WAS UPDATED.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT, MAINLY
FROM CAPE ARAGO SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. BY LATE TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
TAPER TO AROUND 20 KNOTS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO BUT AREAS FROM CAPE
BLANCO SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP
SOUTH OF CAPE SEBASTIAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH BL WINDS
APPROACHING OF 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...THE RADAR NOW SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION MAP
SHOWED STRIKES FROM SW MODOC COUNTY NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KLAMATH
COUNTY AND THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN. DOWNDRAFT FROM ONE OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE IN DOWNTOWN LAKEVIEW.

THE CLOSED LOW HAS NOW MOVED INTO NEVADA AND A MORE STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS SETTLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE RAIN, WE COULD SEE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. /FB

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KOTH/KRBG WITH VFR AT KMFR/KLMT. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SPILDE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS THERE IS COOLER AIR ALOFT...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME
CONVECTION. MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THAT THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES EAST...WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THAT LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

THE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING NOW...AND THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR EAST
SIDE...AND THIS IS WHERE LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...SO WON`T CHANGE COVERAGE THERE MUCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT. STOCKTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE STRETCH LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL BE QUITE HOT ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH COOLER MONDAY
WHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME QPF
BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON (THE CANADIAN DOES NOT) HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO
SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL
WELL OFFSHORE AND IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THUS WE`LL KEEP MONDAY DRY WITH NO
MENTION OF PRECIP AND BRING A CHANCE IN FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW AND RIDGE IN THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER,
THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KOTH/KRBG WITH VFR AT KMFR/KLMT. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE SEBASTIAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH BL WINDS
APPROACHING OF 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/FJB





000
FXUS66 KMFR 280353
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
853 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE RADAR NOW SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TAPERING OFF IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE LIGHTNING DETECTION MAP
SHOWED STRIKES FROM SW MODOC COUNTY NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KLAMATH
COUNTY AND THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN. DOWNDRAFT FROM ONE OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE IN DOWNTOWN LAKEVIEW.

THE CLOSED LOW HAS NOW MOVED INTO NEVADA AND A MORE STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS SETTLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE RAIN, WE COULD SEE AREAS OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KOTH/KRBG WITH VFR AT KMFR/KLMT. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE SEBASTIAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH BL WINDS
APPROACHING OF 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS THERE IS COOLER AIR ALOFT...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME
CONVECTION. MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THAT THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES EAST...WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THAT LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

THE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING NOW...AND THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR EAST
SIDE...AND THIS IS WHERE LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...SO WON`T CHANGE COVERAGE THERE MUCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT. STOCKTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE STRETCH LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL BE QUITE HOT ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH COOLER MONDAY
WHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME QPF
BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON (THE CANADIAN DOES NOT) HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO
SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL
WELL OFFSHORE AND IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THUS WE`LL KEEP MONDAY DRY WITH NO
MENTION OF PRECIP AND BRING A CHANCE IN FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW AND RIDGE IN THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER,
THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KOTH/KRBG WITH VFR AT KMFR/KLMT. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE SEBASTIAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH BL WINDS
APPROACHING OF 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

FJB/MAP/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 272340
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
440 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS THERE IS COOLER AIR ALOFT...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME
CONVECTION. MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THAT THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES EAST...WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THAT LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

THE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING NOW...AND THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR EAST
SIDE...AND THIS IS WHERE LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...SO WON`T CHANGE COVERAGE THERE MUCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT. STOCKTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE STRETCH LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL BE QUITE HOT ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH COOLER MONDAY
WHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME QPF
BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON (THE CANADIAN DOES NOT) HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO
SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL
WELL OFFSHORE AND IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THUS WE`LL KEEP MONDAY DRY WITH NO
MENTION OF PRECIP AND BRING A CHANCE IN FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW AND RIDGE IN THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER,
THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KOTH/KRBG WITH VFR AT KMFR/KLMT. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE SEBASTIAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH BL WINDS
APPROACHING OF 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/JRS/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 272340
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
440 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS THERE IS COOLER AIR ALOFT...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME
CONVECTION. MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THAT THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES EAST...WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THAT LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

THE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING NOW...AND THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR EAST
SIDE...AND THIS IS WHERE LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...SO WON`T CHANGE COVERAGE THERE MUCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT. STOCKTON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE STRETCH LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL BE QUITE HOT ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH COOLER MONDAY
WHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME QPF
BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON (THE CANADIAN DOES NOT) HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO
SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL
WELL OFFSHORE AND IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THUS WE`LL KEEP MONDAY DRY WITH NO
MENTION OF PRECIP AND BRING A CHANCE IN FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW AND RIDGE IN THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER,
THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE...MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST SIDE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VIS DOWN TO MVFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KOTH/KRBG WITH VFR AT KMFR/KLMT. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING ALL AREAS. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF
CAPE SEBASTIAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A THERMAL TROUGH
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH BL WINDS
APPROACHING OF 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     PZZ376.

$$

MAS/JRS/MAP





000
FXUS66 KMFR 272100
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
200 PM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS THERE IS COOLER AIR ALOFT...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SOME
CONVECTION. MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THAT THE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM THE CASCADES EAST...WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THAT LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. NO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

THE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING NOW...AND THE CUTOFF LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE NUDGES IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR EAST
SIDE...AND THIS IS WHERE LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE...SO WON`T CHANGE COVERAGE THERE MUCH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE STRETCH LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEST OF THE CASCADES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EAST SIDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL BE QUITE HOT ON SUNDAY BUT MUCH COOLER MONDAY
WHEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THE GFS AND EC SHOW SOME QPF
BREAKING OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON (THE CANADIAN DOES NOT) HOWEVER THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO
SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY IS STILL
WELL OFFSHORE AND IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THUS WE`LL KEEP MONDAY DRY WITH NO
MENTION OF PRECIP AND BRING A CHANCE IN FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE PAC NW AND RIDGE IN THE
ROCKIES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER,
THEY ALL SUGGEST IT COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL INLAND TERMINALS. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN IN MVFR CIGS
AND MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE AS TO THE EXACT TIME ON WHEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP, SO WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SETTLING IN OVER MOST OF THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE RAP SUGGEST SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS COULD END UP CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE OBSERVATION AT BUOY 15 WITH
SUSTAINED PEAK GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
LOW END SMALL CRAFT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE
AND NEAR THE CAPES THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST
WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN/PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370.

$$

15/10/18





000
FXUS66 KMFR 271800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1100 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
MORNING AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SHEARING AS IT DOES
SO. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SOME CONVECTION.

THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE
RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE A BIT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FORM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL INLAND TERMINALS. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN IN MVFR CIGS
AND MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE AS TO THE EXACT TIME ON WHEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP, SO WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS TO THE TAFS. ALSO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SETTLING IN OVER MOST OF THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...THE LATEST RUN OF
THE RAP SUGGEST SMALL CRAFT FOR WINDS COULD END UP CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE OBSERVATION AT BUOY 15 WITH
SUSTAINED PEAK GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
LOW END SMALL CRAFT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE
AND NEAR THE CAPES THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST
WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN/PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 271536
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
836 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...27/12Z NAM IN.

ITS A BIT HARD TO DETERMINE THE HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER THIS
MORNING AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE CUTOFF LOW AROUND THE GLOBE...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE 4 OR 5...MAYBE. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS
PROGRESSIVE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE ARE SOME BLOCKS IN OUR
FUTURE.

CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...SHEARING AS IT DOES
SO. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
SOME CONVECTION.

THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LONG WAVE
RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

ONE MORE STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SEEMS THAT THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION...BUT MODEL LIFTED INDICES INDICATE LITTLE INSTABILITY.
WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS IN MORE DETAIL TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND THIS
WILL SET UP AN OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WHICH WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ON THE RIDGES. FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. RH RECOVERIES
ON THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE THAT NIGHT.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE A BIT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FORM THE
NORTHERN HALF OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/12Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE
THIS MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. EAST SIDE AREAS AND
MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE VFR. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE CASCADES. OVERALL, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS, WITH
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS SETTLING IN OVER MOST OF
THE REGION BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 500 AM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
CAPES THROUGH TONIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP
GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

15/15/15





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270918
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
218 AM PDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CURRENTLY, THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT IS FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LATER
THAN FORECAST, WHICH WAS A TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL
SUITES, SO NOT ENTIRELY A SURPRISE. AS THE FRONT IS WEAKENING, AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WANING, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME
SCATTERED AND LIGHT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND SPREADS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE IS AN OFF CHANCE
OF A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT
OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT UNTIL
LATER TODAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ONLY ALTERING THE COVERAGE SLIGHTLY TO MORE
ALIGN WITH THE LATEST MODEL INSTABILITY FIELDS. SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND SHOULD COME TO A COMPLETE END BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD, AND WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
INLAND OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY NUDGE THE
THERMAL TROUGH BACK DOWN INTO CALIFORNIA, AND BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE BACK NORTH,
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN IN EARNEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. -BPN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUE APR 26 2016... OFFSHORE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BALMY BEACH WEATHER AT BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
SATURDAY THEN SEVERAL TO A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT DIMINISHES
BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND HOLD OFF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST MONDAY THEN IT MAY LINGER BUT A SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SUCH A SHIFT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. WE WILL WAIT FOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON SUCH A SOLUTION
BEFORE ADDING THEM. -DW


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED. EAST SIDE AREAS AND MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
VFR. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES.
OVERALL, EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
IT WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE AND NEAR THE
CAPES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST
WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF/SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

BPN/SBN/DW/MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270547
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1047 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING IS ALOFT.
HOWEVER, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LIKE CRATER LAKE. THIS AREA OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/VIRGA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH WITH IT, SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK OVER THE EAST SIDE
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT. SO, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
(MOSTLY AFTER 06Z/11 PM) AND SPREAD INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST
SIDE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK, SO NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE PLANNED. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED.
EAST SIDE AREAS AND MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE VFR.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CASCADES. OVERALL,
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE AND
NEAR THE CAPES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BREAKING
DOWN AND MOVING EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM ADVANCES TO
THE COAST. ABUNDANT CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD THE
WARNING AREA LIMITING SUNSHINE. EXPECT ONLY A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO 4 MORE OVER THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE YET
TO THICKEN. THERE ARE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THE
ALTOSTRATUS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES THROUGH THE LATE DAY
AND EVENING AS IS MOVES EAST.

THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE COAST AND
WEST SIDE BETWEEN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 6AM WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING OVER THE EAST THEREAFTER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES TO THE COAST TONIGHT. ALSO, AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADS THE EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
OVERALL, THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAS BEEN
PRESERVED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IMPACTS TO ROADS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDEST
ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONLY TO 32 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
AND PRECIP RATES WON`T BE VERY HIGH THROUGH THAT TIME. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING THE NORTH FRIDAY. MTS

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM WERE TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EARLY SATURDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH LESS THAN TYPICAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN OREGON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AT NORTH FACING SLOPES SUCH AS NEAR ASHLAND
AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE
RAPIDLY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY. OFFSHORE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BALMY BEACH WEATHER AT BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN SEVERAL TO A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT
DIMINISHES BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT TO
WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND HOLD OFF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST MONDAY THEN IT MAY LINGER BUT A
SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SUCH A
SHIFT WOULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WE WILL WAIT FOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON SUCH A
SOLUTION BEFORE ADDING THEM. -DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270336
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
836 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT WEB CAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING IS ALOFT.
HOWEVER, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AT SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LIKE CRATER LAKE. THIS AREA OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/VIRGA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON OVERNIGHT. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH WITH IT, SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK OVER THE EAST SIDE
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT. SO, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
(MOSTLY AFTER 06Z/11 PM) AND SPREAD INLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST
SIDE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK, SO NO FURTHER UPDATES
ARE PLANNED. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...MOVING
ONTO THE COAST AFTER 06Z LATE THIS EVENING THEN INLAND TO ROSEBURG
AND MEDFORD AROUND 09Z LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS INCLUDING
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A WIND SHIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE WEST TO
THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS NOTED BY THE TIMES
INDICATED ABOVE WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOVING IN. -DW/SCHAAF

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND IT WITH CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3NM FROM SHORE AND
NEAR THE CAPES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF/SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION..

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BREAKING
DOWN AND MOVING EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM ADVANCES TO
THE COAST. ABUNDANT CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD THE
WARNING AREA LIMITING SUNSHINE. EXPECT ONLY A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO 4 MORE OVER THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE YET
TO THICKEN. THERE ARE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THE
ALTOSTRATUS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES THROUGH THE LATE DAY
AND EVENING AS IS MOVES EAST.

THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE COAST AND
WEST SIDE BETWEEN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 6AM WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING OVER THE EAST THEREAFTER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES TO THE COAST TONIGHT. ALSO, AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
OVERSPREADS THE EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE.
OVERALL, THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAS BEEN
PRESERVED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IMPACTS TO ROADS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDEST
ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONLY TO 32 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM
AND PRECIP RATES WON`T BE VERY HIGH THROUGH THAT TIME. SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING THE NORTH FRIDAY. MTS

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE
LONG TERM WERE TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EARLY SATURDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH LESS THAN TYPICAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN OREGON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AT NORTH FACING SLOPES SUCH AS NEAR ASHLAND
AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE
RAPIDLY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY. OFFSHORE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BALMY BEACH WEATHER AT BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN SEVERAL TO A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT
DIMINISHES BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT TO
WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND HOLD OFF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH
PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST MONDAY THEN IT MAY LINGER BUT A
SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SUCH A
SHIFT WOULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WE WILL WAIT FOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON SUCH A
SOLUTION BEFORE ADDING THEM. -DW

AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...MOVING ONTO THE COAST AFTER
06Z LATE THIS EVENING THEN INLAND TO ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD AROUND
09Z LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS INCLUDING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WIND SHIFT IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AS NOTED BY THE TIMES INDICATED ABOVE WHEN MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE MOVING IN. -DW/SCHAAF

MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK
OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THEN...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME STEEP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/MTS/DW/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 270217 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION..

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BREAKING
DOWN AND MOVING EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM ADVANCES TO
THE COAST. ABUNDANT CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD THE
WARNING AREA LIMITING SUNSHINE. EXPECT ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF
ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
UP TO 4 MORE OVER THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO THICKEN. THERE
ARE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THE ALTOSTRATUS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES THROUGH THE LATE DAY AND EVENING AS IS
MOVES EAST.

THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE COAST AND
WEST SIDE BETWEEN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 6AM WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
OVER THE EAST THEREAFTER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO
THE COAST TONIGHT. ALSO, AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE. OVERALL,
THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAS BEEN PRESERVED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE IMPACTS TO ROADS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDEST ROAD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONLY TO 32 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM AND
PRECIP RATES WON`T BE VERY HIGH THROUGH THAT TIME. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING THE NORTH FRIDAY. MTS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG
TERM WERE TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHER THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EARLY SATURDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH LESS THAN TYPICAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN OREGON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS BANKED UP AT NORTH FACING SLOPES SUCH AS NEAR ASHLAND AND
SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE RAPIDLY
WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY. OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BALMY BEACH WEATHER AT BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
SATURDAY THEN SEVERAL TO A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT DIMINISHES
BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND HOLD OFF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST MONDAY THEN IT MAY LINGER BUT A SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SUCH A SHIFT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WE WILL WAIT FOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON SUCH A SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING THEM. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...MOVING ONTO THE COAST AFTER 06Z LATE
THIS EVENING THEN INLAND TO ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD AROUND 09Z LATE
TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS INCLUDING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WIND SHIFT IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO OCCUR FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
ASNOTED BY THE TIMES INDICATED ABOVE WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
MOVING IN. -DW/SCHAAF

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK
OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THEN...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME STEEP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
MTS/DW/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 262249
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
349 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION..

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BREAKING
DOWN AND MOVING EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM ADVANCES TO
THE COAST. ABUNDANT CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD THE
WARNING AREA LIMITING SUNSHINE. EXPECT ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF
ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
UP TO 4 MORE OVER THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO THICKEN. THERE
ARE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THE ALTOSTRATUS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES THROUGH THE LATE DAY AND EVENING AS IS
MOVES EAST.

THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE COAST AND
WEST SIDE BETWEEN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 6AM WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
OVER THE EAST THEREAFTER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO
THE COAST TONIGHT. ALSO, AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE. OVERALL,
THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAS BEEN PRESERVED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE IMPACTS TO ROADS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDEST ROAD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONLY TO 32 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM AND
PRECIP RATES WON`T BE VERY HIGH THROUGH THAT TIME. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING THE NORTH FRIDAY. MTS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG
TERM WERE TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHER THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EARLY SATURDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH LESS THAN TYPICAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN OREGON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS BANKED UP AT NORTH FACING SLOPES SUCH AS NEAR ASHLAND AND
SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE RAPIDLY
WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY. OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BALMY BEACH WEATHER AT BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
SATURDAY THEN SEVERAL TO A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT DIMINISHES
BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND HOLD OFF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST MONDAY THEN IT MAY LINGER BUT A SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SUCH A SHIFT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WE WILL WAIT FOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON SUCH A SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING THEM. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSSTHE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHTONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTALWATERS THIS EVENING...MOVING ONTO THE COAST AFTER 06Z LATE
THISEVENING THEN INLAND TO ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD AROUND 09Z LATE
TONIGHTWITH CONDITIONS INCLUDING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONPERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WIND SHIFT IS
ALSO EXPECTEDTO OCCUR FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT ASNOTED BY THE TIMES INDICATED ABOVE WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE MOVINGIN. -DW/SCHAAF

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK
OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THEN...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME STEEP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
MTS/DW/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 262149
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
249 PM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BREAKING
DOWN AND MOVING EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM ADVANCES TO
THE COAST. ABUNDANT CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS OVERSPREAD THE
WARNING AREA LIMITING SUNSHINE. EXPECT ONLY A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF
ADDITIONAL WARMING OVER THE WEST SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
UP TO 4 MORE OVER THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO THICKEN. THERE
ARE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR WITH THE ALTOSTRATUS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES THROUGH THE LATE DAY AND EVENING AS IS
MOVES EAST.

THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE COAST AND
WEST SIDE BETWEEN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 6AM WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
OVER THE EAST THEREAFTER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO
THE COAST TONIGHT. ALSO, AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THERE. OVERALL,
THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAS BEEN PRESERVED.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP TO NEAR 5000 FEET WITH THE TROUGH TONIGHT AND
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE IMPACTS TO ROADS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER AS COLDEST ROAD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ONLY TO 32 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 8AM AND
PRECIP RATES WON`T BE VERY HIGH THROUGH THAT TIME. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY WITH
A WEAK TROUGH GRAZING THE NORTH FRIDAY. MTS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE LONG
TERM WERE TO NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHER THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EARLY SATURDAY...THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH LESS THAN TYPICAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN OREGON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS BANKED UP AT NORTH FACING SLOPES SUCH AS NEAR ASHLAND AND
SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUITE RAPIDLY
WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY. OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN BALMY BEACH WEATHER AT BROOKINGS WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
SATURDAY THEN SEVERAL TO A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT DIMINISHES
BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AND HOLD OFF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST MONDAY THEN IT MAY LINGER BUT A SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. SUCH A SHIFT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT INCLUDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. WE WILL WAIT FOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON SUCH A SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING THEM. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...MOVING ONTO THE COAST AFTER
06Z LATE THIS EVENING THEN INLAND TO ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD AROUND 09Z
LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS INCLUDING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. -DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 215 PM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK
OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THEN...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME STEEP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL GENERATE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -SCHAAF

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM
     8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
$$
MTS/DW/BMS





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261514
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
814 AM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...NO MORNING UPDATES NEEDED. MTS

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY AND COAST (INCLUDING KRBG AND KOTH) AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AT
ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING...MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE EVENING. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA INTO THE MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME STEEP AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS COULD
REACH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT BY THURSDAY BUT ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO STAY BELOW GALES. NOTE THAT DETAILS ON THIS COULD CHANGE, SO WATCH
FOR UPDATES ON THIS. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PDT TUE APR 26 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LITTLE WIND, TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED, WITH MID 30SALREADY BEING
REPORTED IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. HOWEVER, MANY OF THESE
LOCATIONS ARE AT, OR VERY CLOSE TO, SATURATION, AND THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
VALLEYS AND UP AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, CASCADES,
AND SISKIYOUS. DUE TO THE NEAR TO SATURATED AIR, IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TOO MUCH FURTHER, AND WHILE A FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE, IT IS UNLIKELY, AND THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY
APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR THIS EVENING, THE BULK OF THE MODEL SUITES HAVE SLOWED A
BIT ON THE APPROACH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE AS THE FRONT
ITSELF IS WEAKENING AND SLOWING UNDER FALTERING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY, BUT DID NOT FULLY
TRANSITION TO THE NEW TIMING, AS THIS WAS THE FIRST MODEL RUNS TO
SHOW IT. WILL LEAVE ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING TO THE DAY
SHIFT. OTHERWISE, THE EVENT APPEARS RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THE
EARLIER FORECASTS. ALSO OF NOTE: THE NAM AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT,
THE GFS SHOW INSTABILITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE AND THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD.
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN RIDGING
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK, PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. -BPN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM MON APR 25 2016...SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND
POSSIBLY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE STRONG RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS AND
NEAR 70 FOR VALLEYS EAST OF THE CASCADES. OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -BMS/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





000
FXUS66 KMFR 261514
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
814 AM PDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...NO MORNING UPDATES NEEDED. MTS

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 26/12Z TAF CYCLE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY AND COAST (INCLUDING KRBG AND KOTH) AROUND DAWN.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AT
ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING...MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE EVENING. SVEN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT TUE 26 APR 2016...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA INTO THE MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME STEEP AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A THERMAL
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WILL HELP GENERATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS COULD
REACH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT BY THURSDAY BUT ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO STAY BELOW GALES. NOTE THAT DETAILS ON THIS COULD CHANGE, SO WATCH
FOR UPDATES ON THIS. SVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PDT TUE APR 26 2016/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LITTLE WIND, TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE DROPPED A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED, WITH MID 30SALREADY BEING
REPORTED IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS. HOWEVER, MANY OF THESE
LOCATIONS ARE AT, OR VERY CLOSE TO, SATURATION, AND THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
VALLEYS AND UP AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE, CASCADES,
AND SISKIYOUS. DUE TO THE NEAR TO SATURATED AIR, IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TOO MUCH FURTHER, AND WHILE A FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE, IT IS UNLIKELY, AND THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY
APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR THIS EVENING, THE BULK OF THE MODEL SUITES HAVE SLOWED A
BIT ON THE APPROACH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THIS APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE AS THE FRONT
ITSELF IS WEAKENING AND SLOWING UNDER FALTERING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY, BUT DID NOT FULLY
TRANSITION TO THE NEW TIMING, AS THIS WAS THE FIRST MODEL RUNS TO
SHOW IT. WILL LEAVE ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING TO THE DAY
SHIFT. OTHERWISE, THE EVENT APPEARS RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THE
EARLIER FORECASTS. ALSO OF NOTE: THE NAM AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT,
THE GFS SHOW INSTABILITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE, THEN OVER MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE AND THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVERHEAD.
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN RIDGING
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK, PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. -BPN

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM MON APR 25 2016...SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION WITH A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND
POSSIBLY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST RESULTING IN
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE STRONG RIDGE AND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR INLAND WESTERN VALLEYS AND
NEAR 70 FOR VALLEYS EAST OF THE CASCADES. OFFSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -BMS/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$





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