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000
FXUS66 KMFR 241642
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
942 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
BUT, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON THE WAY WITH A FOCUS ON FINE
TUNING THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES INTO NORTHERN
KLAMATH AND NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTIES. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING LONGEST (THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON) TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF JACKSON COUNTY. MEANTIME,
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ELSEWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON. OUR AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE THIS EVENING BUT WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, IN THE SHASTA VALLEY, AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST SIDE
AS THE ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REACH THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREAD INLAND SATURDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING WEST OF THE CASCADE CREST AND
WIND SPEEDS BUILDING TO A PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL FEATURE OF THE STORM WITH SPEEDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED IN THE ROGUE VALLEY
AND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SHASTA VALLEY, AND THE EAST SIDE. AS IS TYPICAL, TERRAIN
INFLUENCES WILL PRODUCE THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
WEED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE IN NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY.

WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A
SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG FRONT REACHES THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY WEST-SIDE FOCUSED RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN CURRENTLY LIES ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE
RAIN ENDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE
WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT
POINT IS THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY
STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/SBN/SBN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 241123
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
423 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 24/12Z TAF CYCLE...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN CURRENTLY LIES ALONG THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER AND WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE
RAIN ENDS, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SETTLE ON A TRACK FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
OUT NEAR 135W WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE BY PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WILL
DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT POINT IS
THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND
CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$










000
FXUS66 KMFR 241116
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
416 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS NOW LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING NORTH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH AND AS IT DOES PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE, THEN END FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES COULD END UP MILDER THAN WHAT`S IN
THE FORECAST.

OUR NEXT ATTENTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CASCADES...SHASTA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY. MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASING 700 MB WINDS INCREASING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 65-75 KTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEREFORE WE`LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORIES FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
THE SHASTA VALLEY. ALSO A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. IN ADDITION THE NAM INDICATES
THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH 35
TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES IN
SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROGUE VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A WEAK INVERSION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, SO IT`S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD START OUT LIGHT, BUT THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY. DETAILS ON ALL OF THE WIND PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT
NPWMFR.

ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

POST FRONTAL SOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MOST SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN ON SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/06Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN  SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN JACKSON, KLAMATH, AND LAKE
COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
A CONTINUED  FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. THE FRONTAL  BAND WILL BRING MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITY FOR
MANY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS. ALSO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN  OBSCURATIONS FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE  TO VFR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA IN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED RAIN ALONG THE COOS AND DOUGLAS COAST.  OVERALL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING EXPECT  VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA.  CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING IS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH. /CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 350 AM PDT FRI 24 OCT 2014...THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SETTLE ON A TRACK FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
OUT NEAR 135W WILL APPROACH THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE BY PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO ON SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND THEN REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY.

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH END GALES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOW LONG INTO SATURDAY THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WILL
DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND BEGIN TO EASE IN THE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THE IMPORTANT POINT IS
THAT AT LEAST 12-18 HOURS OF STRONG GALES TO LOW END STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR WATERS. VERY STEEP AND
CHAOTIC SEAS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WINDS.

THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER FRONT MAY AFFECT THE
WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. -WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR ORZ028.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ082.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$








000
FXUS66 KMFR 240404
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A LOW TO
THE WEST APPROACHES THE REGION, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY  WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO, EXPECT WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GETTING LITTLE
RAINFALL, TO ONCE AGAIN RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH MOST INLAND AREAS BEING DRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THEN, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW, AROUND
992MB, WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON
COAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST INSIDE OF 130W LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR GREATER REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY, SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS FOR MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS WITH A 70 KT 700 MB JET
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION THE
NAM INDICATES THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY  WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 240404
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
CASCADES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS A LOW TO
THE WEST APPROACHES THE REGION, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY  WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES
SO, EXPECT WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY GETTING LITTLE
RAINFALL, TO ONCE AGAIN RECEIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA WITH MOST INLAND AREAS BEING DRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING THE MEDFORD AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THEN, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW, AROUND
992MB, WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE OREGON
COAST SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST INSIDE OF 130W LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OR GREATER REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY, SUMMER LAKE AREA, AND OVER THE SISKIYOUS MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS FOR MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS WITH A 70 KT 700 MB JET
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION THE
NAM INDICATES THAT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG WITH 35 TO 45 KT SOUTH WINDS AT 850 MB FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS INTO WESTERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS BUT COASTAL HEADLANDS MAY
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION, TO WIND IMPACTS, THIS STRONG LOW WILL BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALSO COLD AIR ALOFT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS WELL ON SATURDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRING STRONG GUSTY  WINDS DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A STALLED FRONT FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR
THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

CC/CC/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 240018
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
518 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 24/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT STALLING FROM SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING, BUT WITH SOME TERRAIN OBSCURED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL BECOME TOTAL. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
EXPECTED. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 515 PM PDT THU 23 OCT 2014...
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT, BUT
MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL EASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING NEAR 40 NORTH AND 130 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 WEST INTO NORTHERN OREGON
AND WASHINGTON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HISTORICALLY, THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR HIGH-END GALES AND EVEN POTENTIAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS/HI-RES
ARW/GEM MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE OF A COMPACT LOW WITH PRESSURES AS
LOW AS 985MB, WHILE THE EC/NAM HAVE MORE OF AN ELONGATED LOW WITH
PRESSURES DOWN TO 993MB. TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL BL AND
SURFACE FLOW, HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 KT NEAR CAPE BLANCO
AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. HAVE ISSUED A STORM/GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE BLANCO.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CHAOTIC SEAS OF UP TO 23
FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

MAS/FB/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 232214
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
314 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
THIS MEANS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES
AND SISKIYOUS.

THE CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN
A BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TAKE THE LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD
ASTORIA. BOTH THE NAME AND THE GFS SHOW VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM ARCATA TO NORTH BEND WITH THIS SYSTEM. COASTAL
WATERS COULD SEE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST EXCEPT AT THE
HEADLANDS. THE STRONG GRADIENTS WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SHASTA VALLEYS WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE. I HAVE ISSUED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN OREGON AND NE CALIFORNIA. IN
ADDITION THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO SEE A VERY STRONG SOUTH
WINDS IMPACTING THE SISKIYOU PASS AND MOUNT ASHLAND AREA.

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AGAIN AT THE COAST WITH SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN IN THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTING WINDS AS WELL.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM TUESDAY
FORWARD WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE RIDGE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES; WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS A LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SNOW
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CLIMATOLOGY POPS IN THE
EXTENDED. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ081>083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN











000
FXUS66 KMFR 231934
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1235 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
DRAPED ALONG AND NEAR THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES. THIS STALLED FRONT IS CAUSING TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AREAS, AND PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ELSEWHERE. IN THE VALLEYS IN THIS SAME AREA CONDITIONS ARE A MIX OF
VFR AND IFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN, BUT EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL EVENTUALLY REDEVELOP BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT CURRENT REDUCED
CIGS/VIS WITH THE FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD KLMT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR BEFORE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1200 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND AND SEAS MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/BTL/BPN











000
FXUS66 KMFR 231616
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT IS  BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS HERE AND THERE. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS THE EAST
SIDE, VFR WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. STEADY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT, INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MID TONIGHT
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0200 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -CC/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 231616
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
916 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ONSHORE AND EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY SW TO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SOUTH TO NORTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASES AND WILL BE CANCELING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY. RAINFALL AT THE COAST RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT SO FAR AROUND 5 INCHES AT RED
MOUND AND 4.5 INCHES NEAR CAPE FERRELO. THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE
CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON AND OFF...FOR SW OREGON UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALL DAY FOR EAST OF THE CASCADES
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA..WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS MTNS, AS
WELL AS MOST OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS
IMPORTANT AND WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION AND
IN THE SHASTA VALLEY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONT IS  BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALONG THE COAST, MVFR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS HERE AND THERE. IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS THE EAST
SIDE, VFR WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. STEADY RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT, INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH MID TONIGHT
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. TERRAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 0200 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DUE TO MODERATE WEST SWELL
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY, ALONG WITH 20
FOOT SEAS OR GREATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -CC/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ031.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 230800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...23/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

A FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE IS LOTS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE DIRECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MEDFORD CWA THURSDAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWN SOME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE
COAST...BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED
THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. OTHER AMOUNTS WILL BE 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES
IN DOUGLAS COUNTY...1-3 INCHES IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO
1.5" IN JACKSON COUNTY. 0.10" TO 0.50" INCHES WILL FALL IN THE
EAST SIDE VALLEYS...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND START TO SHEAR FRIDAY.
IN RESPONSE A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL PUMP UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
STATES...AND THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT CLEARS TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GET QUITE
INTERESTING OFFSHORE AS A LOW WINDS UP UNDER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SHEARING TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH
NORTHEAST INSIDE 130W. THE TRACK AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW WILL BE
CRITICAL AS FAR AS HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST ARE CONCERNED. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH...AROUND 990 MB...FOR A WARNING ALONG THE
COAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. HOWEVER...STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET FROM THE
CASCADES WEST WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MEDFORD CWA SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING
WITH TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN
QUESTION...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES
LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. THE
OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK...SO
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE. A FRONT IS PUSHING
INTO THE CASCADES THIS MORNING AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING RAIN WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AREAS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND THEN SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER. HOWEVER EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. /CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...WINDS HAVE
LOWERED BEHIND A FRONT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE 130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
STORM FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
ROUND OF CALMER WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
        8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

15/15/11






000
FXUS66 KMFR 230400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE CASCADES AND JUST EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
HAVE DECREASED SHARPLY ALONG THE COOS COAST AND NORTHERN CURRY
COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE MARINE WATERS. ALSO RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. OF NOTE IS THAT THE NAM AND
GFS ARE TOO SLOW WITH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INLAND AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL WHICH IS DEPICTING THE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE BEST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WEATHER
AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SHOW THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT INLAND TONIGHT AND THRUSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT.
ALO BASED ON THE ARW MODEL AND THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A COLD
POOL WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF GOLD BEACH,
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
AND LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT
A COOL AND SHOWERY AIRMASS TO MOVE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL JET OF
60 TO 75 KNOTS AT 700 MB MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.MODELS VARY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AND INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AREAS WITH
FUTURE MODELS RUNS AND FORECASTS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INLAND SATURDAY WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

CC/CC/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 230400
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING INLAND TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE CASCADES AND JUST EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND
AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS
HAVE DECREASED SHARPLY ALONG THE COOS COAST AND NORTHERN CURRY
COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE MARINE WATERS. ALSO RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
TO SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. OF NOTE IS THAT THE NAM AND
GFS ARE TOO SLOW WITH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INLAND AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL WHICH IS DEPICTING THE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THE BEST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WEATHER
AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SHOW THE QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT INLAND TONIGHT AND THRUSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT.
ALO BASED ON THE ARW MODEL AND THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF A COLD
POOL WITH SHOWERS OFFSHORE, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY NORTH OF GOLD BEACH,
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

THEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, EXPECT THIS FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
AND LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT
A COOL AND SHOWERY AIRMASS TO MOVE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN OREGON AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL JET OF
60 TO 75 KNOTS AT 700 MB MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.MODELS VARY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW BUT GIVEN
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY AND INTO THE SUMMER LAKE AREAS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE AREAS WITH
FUTURE MODELS RUNS AND FORECASTS FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INLAND SATURDAY WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.


.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

CC/CC/CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 230113 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

MAS/FB/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 230113 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
613 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED ONSHORE ENDING THE WINDS AT KOTH
THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VIS WILL PERSIST IN AREAS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM CAPE BLANCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE, BUT WILL DIMINISH SHARPLY BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST INLAND DUE STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH TO THE
EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR IN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE TOTAL WEST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT THEN
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 545 PM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED AND COME DOWN AT BUOY 15 OFF CAPE BLANCO
THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING FOR PZZ370. GALES AND WARNING LEVEL SEAS WILL END SHARPLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO WESTERLY
SWELL. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. ALL SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
130 W BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEASTWARD INSIDE 130 W
SATURDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH END GALE CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE STORM FORCE
GUSTS SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL BIG WIND-MAKER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350.

$$

MAS/FB/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 222209
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE GETTING A LOT OF
DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ROGUE VALLEY AND THIS HAS KEPT RAIN OUR OF
THE AREA. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
THIS COULD DELAY THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT FURTHER. AS A RESULT, GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND I HAVE EXTENDED THE
WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS COULD ALSO MEAN THAT RAIN MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE KLAMATH BASIN WILL SEE PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT..A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS TO HIGH END GALE IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH IF NEXT MODEL RUN
CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND. /FB

&&

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS...
AMOUNTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, THUS FAR, THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75". RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
MOVING ONSHORE NOW, SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN SOME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST, BUT HAVE LEFT 3 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS INTACT FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN AREAS, WITH MOST
OF THE RAIN THERE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 5AM PDT THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT 1.3 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY, 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
JOSEPHINE COUNTY, AND 0.50" TO 1.5" ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY. ON THE
LOW END, IN THE EAST SIDE VALLEYS, WE EXPECT 0.10" TO 0.50", LOWEST
FAR EASTERN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MOST OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DIP TO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AND WEAKEN
LATER ON THURSDAY, AND THEN THE FRONT WAVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NOT IN SOUTH FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS AS A STRONG LOW FORM BETWEEN 130 WEST AND THE OREGON
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS BEHIND IT
EVEN INTO SUNDAY, SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY WET. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST PARAMETER THAN THE PRESENCE OF IT IN THE
FORECAST, SO IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY MAY WANE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS.

NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE ABOUT TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK WITH
MONDAY BEING DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. TIMING OF
THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK IS A BIT IN QUESTION, BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY
THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EVERY 2-3 DAYS. ALSO, THE OVERALL PARENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA
SINKS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY COME
DOWN SOME, INTO THE 5000 TO 7000FT RANGE. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND THOSE
THAT CHANNEL WINDS FROM THAT DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS WIND WILL REMAIN A FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, TO INCLUDE AT KOTH, WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT DIRECTION THAN
ALOFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
TODAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH IFR EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE FIVE. MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BTL


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
AND CHOPPY, STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL








000
FXUS66 KMFR 221834
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1134 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOK REASONABLE. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN
THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT TODAY BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH SNOW LEVEL. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AND WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN HERE IN
MEDFORD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. WESTERN
QUARTER OF SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT THE
REST OF THE COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT
SEE RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND THOSE
THAT CHANNEL WINDS FROM THAT DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS WIND WILL REMAIN A FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, TO INCLUDE AT KOTH, WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND OF A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT DIRECTION THAN
ALOFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SURFACE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
TODAY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE. RAIN
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH IFR EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY EAST OF
INTERSTATE FIVE. MVFR CIGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS
AND CHOPPY, STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BTL/BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
  PZZ356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
  TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
  PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
- GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
  PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/BTL











000
FXUS66 KMFR 221613
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOK REASONABLE. THE LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS PEAKING TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN
THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO COOS AND CURRY COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT RAIN SPREADING INTO THE ILLINOIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADES THROUGHOUT TODAY BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH SNOW LEVEL. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY AND WE MAY NOT SEE RAIN HERE IN
MEDFORD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. WESTERN
QUARTER OF SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN THIS EVENING BUT THE
REST OF THE COUNTY AS WELL AS AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES MAY NOT
SEE RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH, WHERE THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING, BECOMING MODERATE
TO HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES.

INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, THOUGH MVFR CIGS AND
TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. STEADIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KRBG AND AROUND
EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE EVENING. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 130 AM PDT WED 22 OCT 2014...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING GALES AND VERY
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND STEEP AS MODERATE SWELL CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY, ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND CHOPPY STEEP SEAS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM, SO THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SUSPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALES,
BUT OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND HEIGHT OF THE SEAS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY`S EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AND AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF CALMER
WINDS AND SEAS, ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

AVIATION...22/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK EXTENDS
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR THIS MORNING
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BY
SUNRISE...RAIN WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG
AND AROUND EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. -SPILDE/CC

MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW GALES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
WIND WAVES TODAY AND THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WIND WAVES LOWER. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BPN








000
FXUS66 KMFR 220800
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...22/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

CURRENTLY THERE IS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH. AMOUNTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS
HAVE BEEN 0.10 INCHES OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR THE BALD MOUNTAIN RAWS
WITH 0.12 INCHES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND CAPE BLANCO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 51 MPH. INLAND...THE
HIGHEST GUST IS 48 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...WHICH IS BY FAR THE
WINDIEST INLAND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WEST
OF THE CASCADES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC
AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AROUND SUMMER LAKE AND IN THE SHASTA VALLEYS. WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AT
THAT TIME.

THE MODELS LAST NIGHT PUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ONSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MORE RECENT RUNS KEEP IT OFFSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP. THIS WILL DELAY THE NEXT COLD FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOTS OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...SATURDAY,
OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY WEAK DURING THE MORNING. THE LLWS RISK EXTENDS
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR THIS MORNING
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BY
SUNRISE...RAIN WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY. STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG
AND AROUND EARLY EVENING AT KMFR. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1045 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BELOW GALES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
WIND WAVES TODAY AND THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AND WIND WAVES LOWER. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. -SPILDE/CC

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
       PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
        PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
        PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/15/11






000
FXUS66 KMFR 220402
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. THEN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
AS IT PUSHES INLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND TO
THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UMPQUA. THEN EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES THEN STALLS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.5
TO 2 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LESS, AROUND 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES.


WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE INLAND AREAS, STRONGEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.


ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT. PRECIPITATION
RATES WILL DECREASE WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHARPLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. THE LLWS RISK BEGINS AROUND 03Z AND
EXTENDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WILL LOWER FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THERE BY SUNRISE.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION. STEADIER RAIN PROBABLY WON`T BEGIN
THOUGH UNTIL LATER IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG OR THE EVENING AT KMFR.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING REACHING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. EXPECT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 220402
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN
INTO COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT. THEN AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST THE AREA WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT
AS IT PUSHES INLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND TO
THE CASCADES IN SOUTHERN OREGON TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UMPQUA. THEN EXPECT RAIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES THEN STALLS
OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
INLAND, WEST OF THE CASCADES, EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.5
TO 2 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY. EAST OF THE CASCADES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LESS, AROUND 0.10 TO 0.75 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER MODOC AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTIES.


WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER INLAND AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVER THE INLAND AREAS, STRONGEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS, INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.


ON THURSDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT. PRECIPITATION
RATES WILL DECREASE WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z TAF CYCLE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS EVENING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHARPLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOTH WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMPARATIVELY WEAK. THE LLWS RISK BEGINS AROUND 03Z AND
EXTENDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, CIGS ALONG THE COAST
WILL LOWER FROM VFR THIS EVENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE COAST RANGES. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES THERE BY SUNRISE.
INLAND, VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH CIGS WILL LOWER ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
PARTIAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION. STEADIER RAIN PROBABLY WON`T BEGIN
THOUGH UNTIL LATER IN AFTERNOON AT KRBG OR THE EVENING AT KMFR.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING REACHING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY WEST SWELL
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES RESULTING IN CHAOTIC AND
DANGEROUS SEAS. EXPECT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY SWELL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE`LL SEE YET
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SPILDE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

CC








000
FXUS66 KMFR 212209
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES BEFORE ENDING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING, LINGERING, BUT DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE OREGON CASCADES AND IN THE
CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BECOME PARTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS ELSEWHERE TO GENERALLY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO INCREASE SHARPLY, RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND AND NEAR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE, WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL AREAS OF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE, WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL INLAND FROM THE COAST RANGE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
BTL/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1100 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A HEAVY WEST SWELL IS SUBSIDING SOME IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT IS STILL LARGE, WITH SEAS 11 TO 12 FEET AT THE BUOYS AS
OF 11AM PDT. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY AND, MORE SO TONIGHT, BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL BE
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

BTL/SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/BTL/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 212209
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUIET TONIGHT AS WE ARE
IN BETWEEN TWO STORMS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS SPREADING INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON REDDING TO MEDFORD GRADIENT BETWEEN 4-5 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..I HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SHASTA
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. IN ADDITION
SOUTHWEST WIND AT 700MB IS AROUND 50KTS AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THE
SUMMER LAKE AREA OF HIGHWAY 31 IN THE WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW
EVENING. ALSO EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY
BUT THE GRADIENTS DONT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY
HERE IN MEDFORD. THIS FRONT HAS TAPPED INTO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE CURRY COUNTY COAST COULD SEE 3-4
INCHES OF RAIN. DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE ROGUE VALLEY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INLAND. /FB

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25TH THROUGH TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29TH.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST
OVER THE THE FORECAST ARE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INSIDE OF 130
WEST LONGITUDE AND THEN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA IN WESTERN WASHINGTON OR VANCOUVER ISLAND, BRITISH
COLUMBIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.25 INCHES AS THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES AT OUR COASTLINE. WITH THE LOW CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA STAND TO SEE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE COLD
FRONT FROM IT WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADES.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILD REPRIEVE IN THE WET WEATHER AS
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
DEPARTS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTAIN THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ANA, WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED HAWAII, IS DUE IN WITH MORE
WIND AND RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BTL


&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES BEFORE ENDING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING, LINGERING, BUT DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE OREGON CASCADES AND IN THE
CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BECOME PARTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS ELSEWHERE TO GENERALLY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO INCREASE SHARPLY, RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND AND NEAR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE, WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL AREAS OF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE, WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL INLAND FROM THE COAST RANGE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
BTL/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1100 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A HEAVY WEST SWELL IS SUBSIDING SOME IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT IS STILL LARGE, WITH SEAS 11 TO 12 FEET AT THE BUOYS AS
OF 11AM PDT. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY AND, MORE SO TONIGHT, BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL BE
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

BTL/SK

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/BTL/MAS








000
FXUS66 KMFR 211828
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1128 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER WITH SNOW LEVEL
AROUND 5500 FEET FOR SW OREGON. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT..EXPECT
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THE CASCADES AND ONLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPE UNTIL NOON. HAVE UPDATED THE SNOW LEVEL GRID FOR
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. NEXT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SHASTA VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST WIND FOR WEDNESDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO THE COAST AND INLAND INTO
DOUGLAS AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES SHOULD GET PLENTY OF RAIN. THE
ROGUE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNSLOPE DRYING MOST OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY COULD SEE RAIN BY THEN. THOSE TWO ISSUES WILL BE
ON THE PLATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z TAF CYCLE...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE OREGON CASCADES BEFORE ENDING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE THIS
MORNING, LINGERING, BUT DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TOTAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE OREGON CASCADES AND IN THE
CURRY COASTAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING TO BECOME PARTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PARTIAL OBSCURATIONS ELSEWHERE TO GENERALLY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO INCREASE SHARPLY, RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND AND NEAR THE COAST AND
COAST RANGE, WHERE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK.

RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL AREAS OF THE COAST BY
SUNRISE, WITH THE COAST RANGE BECOMING TOTALLY OBSCURED. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL INLAND FROM THE COAST RANGE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.
BTL/SK

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 1100 AM PDT TUE 21 OCT 2014...
A HEAVY WEST SWELL IS SUBSIDING SOME IN THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT IS STILL LARGE, WITH SEAS 11 TO 12 FEET AT THE BUOYS AS
OF 11AM PDT. AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONT WILL RAMP UP THE WINDS
TODAY AND, MORE SO TONIGHT, BRINGING GALES INITIALLY TO THE NORTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN TO MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS WEST SWELL COMBINES WITH INCREASING WIND
WAVES TO PRODUCE CHAOTIC AND DANGEROUS SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE GALES
OVER THE WATERS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AND WE EXPECT THE GALES WILL BE
REACHING WITHIN SEVERAL NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

BTL/SK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...21/00Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE PROGRESSIVE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE MEDFORD CWA WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

ONE FRONT IS NOW DEPARTING THE MEDFORD CWA...LEAVING BEHIND
SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF...AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 5500-6000 FEET...SO SNOW
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES.

AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST...
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVES EJECTING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT.
THEREFORE...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BUT IT WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO PROGRESS. IT WILL FINALLY MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...1-2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND 2-4 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT
IT WON`T DEVELOP OVER THE ROGUE VALLEY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING. ONCE IT DOES THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD GET 0.25-0.50
INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

AS FAR AS WINDS GO...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND THEY COULD REACH ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF SUMMER LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW 700 MB WINDS INCREASING AND PEAKING OUT
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER WINDY SPOT WILL BE THE SHASTA VALLEY...WHERE THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE 700 MB WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY...BUT THE MEDFORD TO REDDING GRADIENT WILL PEAK AT AROUND
-5.0 MB WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INDUCE A STRONG WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...REJUVENATING THE FRONT AND PUSHING IT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FROM THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO AROUND 130W ON
FRIDAY...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND ITS BASE CAUSING THE
TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM UNDER THE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL DRAG THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH FACING MOUNTAIN
RANGES. IN FACT DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS AIMED AT THE
CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AS THE
FRONT DROPS IN THURSDAY...AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY...AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A VERY BIG RAIN
MAKER FOR THESE AREAS AS THIS MOIST FLOW IS WRUNG OUT OVER THE
TERRAIN.

THE KEY QUESTION REGARDING THE WINDS IS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WATERS...COAST...AND MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW POSITION...WE WEREN`T ABLE TO GET SPECIFIC
JUST YET. WE DID RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY HOWEVER. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR WIND CONCERNS.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND LOWER
SNOW LEVELS (AROUND 6000 FT). A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODELS ALL ADVERTISE ANOTHER FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. WE`VE OBVIOUSLY TURNED A
CORNER INTO TYPICAL FALL WEATHER, AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
HAS SOME STAYING POWER WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH OUR WATER ISSUES.
-WRIGHT

AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO
AREAS OF MVFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY EVENING. -DW

MARINE...UPDATED 1000 PM PDT MON 20 OCT 2014...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
LATE TONIGHT, WIND WAVES WILL DECREASE AND WESTERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER. BUT, SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND ABOVE 10
FEET. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST
FRONT OF THE WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE WINDS AND BUILDING WEST SWELL, VERY STEEP AND CHAOTIC SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A COMBINED HEIGHT OF 10 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY
BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT WEDNESDAY.

THE HIGH AND STEEP WEST SWELL IS LIKELY TO BECOME DOMINANT AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
WATERS. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5
     PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.

$$

FJB/BTL











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